Official BuffOrange Gambling Thread

[BuffOrange]

I'm posting this here because I guess it's less Lamp. Will pick a few games ATS each week. All lines from Pinnacle. While not trying to be too arrogant and recognizing the difficulty in this that I may very well lose, I know enough not to adhere to the guaranteed loser formula of picking road favorites every week, which is how most people lose (eg zomg the Jets & Lions are only -3 against bad teams!?). That's worked for me over the course of the last few years, so we'll see how it goes this year.

 

Cleveland +6 vs. Dallas - I'll admit to not know what to expect from the Browns this season, but it's not often that a non-terrible team in the NFL gets this many points at home against a team other than NE. It seems like there's an "expectations backlash" against Cleveland recently after their bandwagon being full in July - now after a lousy preseason it seems so fashionable to call them overrated to the point where I don't think they're overrated anymore. I like the Cowboys talent like everyone else, but would also like to see them do something against a decent passing game before I crown them conference champs. There is a chance Dallas puts the hammer down in the 2nd qtr, but if they don't I expect it to be back & forth 2-3 pt game throughout.

 

Buffalo -1 vs. Seattle - I may be guilty of east coast bias. The Hawks defense may be good, but I don't see them as an elite unit good enough to carry a banged up offense on the road against an average team with an above average homefield advantage. This game should tell you something about the Bills offense. 20pts ought to be good enough to win. If it's not, we're in for a long year. If they don't score 20, probably in for a long year.

 

Green Bay -1 vs. Minnesota - This line says Minny is better on a neutral field by a decent margin. Despite a sweep of the series last year, the Pack will not be lacking for motivation after the hoopla of the offseason. Unlike the Browns, nobody is shying away from this Vikings bangwagon. I was a year early on that bandwagon last year, but it is full now. I'm not going to say Rodgers isn't a question mark, but Tavaris Jackson on the road offsets that somewhat imo.

 

 

I have some leans towards the Ravens & Cardinals each -1 too, but I don't want to kill myself on opening day.

[BuffOrange]

Week 2

 

Cleveland + 6 vs. Pittsburgh - This Browns team may very well by my kryptonite already. I just think out of all the lines this week, this was the one that changed the most based on Week 1; meaning this same game likely would've been Cleve -1 or 2 last week. Maybe they're that bad and the Steelers are that good. I'll take my chances that neither team was as good/bad as they looked. Stick a fork in them if they open 0-2 at home.

 

Tampa Bay -7 vs. Atlanta - Briefly touched on this in the Turner thread. Even with Garcia iffy; rookie QB making first road start against a good defense has too many gruesome, ugly possibilities to me. The Bucs had arguably the most impressive loss of last week in NO.

 

Philly +7 @Dallas - The Eagles thrashing of the Rams doesn't really influence me much, but they're a team I liked before the season. I don't think the road team winning both games last year was a total fluke in the sense that Reid/McNabb have always been a good road duo and Dallas has a below average homefield advantage. It doesn't hurt that Football Outsiders likes the Eagles better to begin with.

 

KC -3.5 vs. Oakland - This is one matchup where I'm weighing Week 1 more heavily than others. Given the Raiders' circumstances of opening night, at home, against a division rival who isn't that good - simply one of the most pitiful performances I have ever seen. I'd lay this number if they're travelling to USC. Huard playing instead of Croyle can't hurt the Chiefs.

 

YTD: 2-1 because I couldn't pull the trigger on other games I liked. I kinda lean GB -3 @Detroit this week, but since there's a 95% chance of it being Bob Matthews' "Best Bet" in his Friday column, I'm going to stay away.

[BuffOrange]

Week 3

Lines are out, not a lot I like; so just 1 game for now.

 

Baltimore -1 vs. Cleveland - Mind you this is not a bitterness pick against the Browns since they covered for me last week (thanks to Romeo's bonehead FG). One of the reasons I liked them Week 1 was I thought the Dallas defense was getting way too much credit for never stopping a decent passing game; Pacman signing notwithstanding. Well maybe it's too early to say I was right about that, but the Cowboys certainly did nothing on Monday night to disprove that; which leads me to suspect that the Browns may in fact suck; since their passing game is the strength of their team. To me this just feels like it should be a pick 'em on a neutral field, or B'more -3 in this case. That Football Outsiders picked the Ravens to win this division is an added bonus - they might be one of those good cover teams for the whole year because everything went wrong for them last year.

 

Last week: 3-1

YTD: 5-2

 

Edit: Woah, just saw the Sunday night line:

 

Green Bay +3 vs. Dallas - Very good team, home dog, primetime vs. a team off a short week. Rodgers played well @Dallas last year. I figured this to be a pick 'em.

Edited September 16, 2008 by BuffOrange

[BuffOrange]

Week 4

 

Tennessee -3 vs. Minnesota - Much of the general public getting burned last week with a 10pt win (0-2 was favored vs. 2-0) is a good example of why you don't take records too seriously at this point of the season, as a closer look showed there wasn't much difference between them & Carolina in the first two weeks. It just so happens that I'm taking the team 2 games better in this spot, as I don't believe these teams are equal on a neutral field. Both teams bread&butter is to run & stop the run, so it should be low scoring. Lendale White between the tackles is useless against Minny's monster tackles, but look for Chris Johnson to get some more work including the passing game. I also like going against Guss Forrotte on the road.

 

Carolina -7 vs. Atlanta - See Week 2 Tampa pick. The Falcons have had 21-0 leads in their 2 home wins vs. Det&KC, and that obviously helps the rookie QB and their bad defense. Warning - the Panthers are traditionally an awful home favorite.

 

Houston +9 @ Jacksonville - I feel like the line in this game is too high just about every year and it usually has been. Even if the Jags are that much better they're not really built to win blowout games. The Texans 31-12 loss @Tenn last week was not nearly as bad as you might think, with a 100 yard int return late in the 4th. Plus Andre Johnson had a couple uncharacteristic big drops (yes that's a thinly disguised fantasy vent).

 

Oakland +9 vs. San Diego - I liked Oakland +3 vs. Denver in week 1 and didn't pick it for the sole reason that they're brutal in these home division games. Can't resist the 9 pts though - count me in the group who came away from last week's game thinking the Raiders aren't that bad. The Bills uncharacteristically lost the battles of pass protection and special teams and it didn't necessarily look like a fluke. Still like the going against the "road game after a short week" factor as well, even though it obviously didn't work out last week w/ Dallas.

 

Last week: 1-1

YTD: 6-3

 

Thursday edit:

 

KC +9.5 vs. Denver - I was hoping this would get to 10, but doesn't look like it's going to happen. With Huard getting the start though (their only competent QB), I can't resist getting this many points at home in a rivalry game against a team with a bad defense. I don't really think the Saints have that many weapons without Colston, and the Broncos blowing 21-0/21-3 leads at home is really alarming. The Chiefs obviously don't have the firepower to overcome such a deficit, but if they can avoid that 1st Qtr disaster I think they can control enough clock to keep it close. Every square on the planet is obviously on the Broncos in this game because "Cutler is good and KC sucks" - but I don't see this line being more than 7 if Hocculi doesn't blow a call and Grammatica can make a kick. Go Chiefs - ruin those suicide pools!

Edited September 26, 2008 by BuffOrange

[KD in CA]

You were BuffOrangeCRUSH this week. Ridiculous end to the Raiders game cost you a perfect week but well done anyway!

[BuffOrange]

Thanks KD - yeah Choakland not covering +9 with a 12pt 4th Qtr lead was ridiculous.

 

Week 5

 

Detroit +3.5 vs. Chicago - You're getting points at home coming off a bye, which is a winning formula. Getting the FG+hook with what should be a juiced up crowd in the 1st game of Post-Millen is a bonus.

 

Baltimore +3 vs. Tennessee - Monday night convinced me that Football Outsiders was right in saying the Ravens were the most underrated team going into the season. They look like the best team in the division. The Titans are another team I think is generally undervalued ATS but the Vikings to my surprise played them to a relatively even game despite the final score.

 

New England -3 @ SF - My first road favorite of the year - kind of a "hedge myself" pick since I'll be delighted if NE is in fact done and their defense is in fact too old to not get run over by Gore. I'll take my chances w/ the resilient Pats coming out with a chip on their shoulder after hearing about how much they suck for 2 weeks. This line would be so much higher if not for the Ronnie Brown show; so I'll wait another week before declaring them done.

 

Other unofficial leans which I may add to the mix later in the week if the lines move a half point:

Houston +3 vs. Indy, Seattle +7 @NYG, TB +3 @Denver, Minny +3 @NO.

Tempted to continue fading Atl on the road as well, but that's off the board for now presumably due to Rodgers' injury.

 

Saturday edit: None of these lines have moved, so we're going to lay off. The one game that has moved is Ten-Balt, which is now down to 1; so glad we got in on that early in the week.

 

Last Week: 4-1

YTD: 10-4

Edited October 4, 2008 by BuffOrange

[BuffOrange]

Bills bye week and there's really nothing that I like

 

I'm just going to mini-wager a couple road dogs that I don't love but I think have a good shot to win outright.

Somehow didn't get to Jax +5.5 @Indy a few weeks ago - I like the way the Jags play on the road and Indy's homefield was overrated in the RCA dome to begin with - that appears to be magnified with the new stadium this year. So this week we'll go with a hybrid of the two since I think Denver is a fraud.

I know the could've/should've game is easy to play in the nfl but the Ravens really should be 4-0 and the Colts 0-4.

 

Week 6

 

Baltimore +4 @ Indy

 

Jacksonville +3.5 @ Denver

 

 

Last Week: 1-1-1

YTD: 11-5-1

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Bills bye week and there's really nothing that I like

 

I'm just going to mini-wager a couple road dogs that I don't love but I think have a good shot to win outright.

Somehow didn't get to Jax +5.5 @Indy a few weeks ago - I like the way the Jags play on the road and Indy's homefield was overrated in the RCA dome to begin with - that appears to be magnified with the new stadium this year. So this week we'll go with a hybrid of the two since I think Denver is a fraud.

I know the could've/should've game is easy to play in the nfl but the Ravens really should be 4-0 and the Colts 0-4.

 

Week 6

 

Baltimore +4 @ Indy

 

Jacksonville +3.5 @ Denver

 

 

Last Week: 1-1-1

YTD: 11-5-1

Agreed on both counts, especially the Baltimore pick. Indy is worst in the league against the run, and the Ravens D is playing some fantastic ball this year.

 

I'm not sure what the spreads are now cause my pool uses early lines, but I also like the Cardinals +5.5 vs. Dallas, and the Bears -2.5 @ Atlanta. Anyhow, good luck to you.

[BuffOrange]

So one ass beating and one comfortable win...expectations were moderate, so that's ok. We're going back to some of the same boring teams this week.

 

Week 7

 

Baltimore +3 @Miami - Maybe the Ravens played over their heads the first 4 games and showed their true colors last week. I'll take my chances that they're more like the team we saw the first month and layed an egg at the same time the Colts happened to hit their stride. The Fish were a team I defended as early as Week 1 when everyone ripped the Jets for "almost losing to that pathetic team". Clearly they're not bad; but much like the Bears in Atlanta last week they had no business ever having the lead before the last play of the game, as the Texans moved up&down the field all day.

 

Cleveland +7 @ Washington - Clearly I'm not an "overreact from last week" person, though this might look like it. The Skins to me are the Jags of the nfc in that they're more likely to grind out a methodical win. Also I don't buy the idea of writing off the Giants game to "Monday night homefield emotion" as that's something that helps a defense (which wasn't terrible before Mon. night) much more than the offense (see Dallas-Buffalo or Atl-NO after Katrina), which exploded for a couple ~200 yard drives with penalties. The Skins homefield advantage also seems like garbage, not unlike most new/modern stadiums.

 

 

Last Week: 1-1

YTD: 12-6-1

Edited October 18, 2008 by BuffOrange

[BuffOrange]

Packer defense is killed by injuries, so I'm backing out of that game. Plus my fantasy opponent this week has Manning/Wayne which pretty much guarantees a huge game for them.

Also kicking myself that the Cleveland line moved to 7.5, but I took the 7 early because I thought the line was more likely to move the other way....what can you do.

[BuffOrange]

Uggh, missed out on a few cases of beer. Who were those guys in the Packers secondary?

[BuffOrange]

Only 12 hours to get my drunken picks in for this week, so not many comments. I suck for not getting in on Pittsburgh -1 when it opened; should've known it would move to -3. Meh, we'll settle for a couple more dogs in addition to the still underrated Titans vs. the still overrated Colts.

 

Week 8

 

Atlanta +9.5 @ Philly

 

Detroit +9 vs. Washington

 

Tennessee -4 vs. Indy

 

Last Week: 2-0

YTD: 14-6-1

[BuffOrange]

And the stupid ass refs in Philly cost me the Falcons cover.

[BuffOrange]

I am getting lazy with the write ups here, but here we go.

 

Week 9

 

Houston +4.5 @ Minnesota

 

Cleveland -1 vs. Baltimore

 

Last Week: 2-1

YTD: 16-7-1

[KD in CA]

I am getting lazy with the write ups here, but here we go.

 

 

I like the write ups.

[BuffOrange]

 

I like the write ups.

 

Thanks I just didn't think anyone was actually reading this, and frankly there are fewer games I feel strongly about each week.

 

Obviously with Houston you have to realize after 4 straight home games they're probably not as good as they've looked lately. I still think they're about equal to Minny on a neutral field and it should be a +3 line. While I thought the Vikings were better than their record a few weeks ago after a tough early schedule, I don't think that's the case anymore after the refs gave them games vs. the Saints & Lions.

 

The other game I feel dirty going against "my Ravens" and my respect for Football Outsiders, who thinks Balt should be favored by 3. But basically Ravens +1 @Cleveland would be a -5 line @Baltimore and yet they were only -1 in Week 3 (where we correctly picked the Ravens of course). Obviously some of this discrepancy is Vegas starting to catch on to the Ravens being a decent team, but more than that I think the Browns have improved as much as anyone in the last six weeks and I'm not sure the lines are reflecting that right now.

 

Something is telling me to take Dallas +9 too but we won't because well, it's Brad Johnson on the road.

[BuffOrange]

Sigh first losing week + Bills crap the bed. I'm a little fired up so will get some Week 10 picks in early and possibly edit some more in later.

Not sure how I feel about the Houston game without having seen it. They had more 1st downs, yards, threw two int's in the endzone but maybe some of those stats were garbage since they were down 14 at one point - I don't know.

Cleveland was just the wrong pick - can't call it a fluke loss when they score on a kickoff return and blow a 14 pt lead despite getting some questionable calls from what I hear.

 

Week 10

 

Atlanta -1 vs. New Orleans - Standard "should be 3 since these teams are equal" game imo. You tell me what the difference is besides the Saints being more touted in the preseason. Ryan can play and we don't even have to add the "rookie qualifier" to that statement anymore.

 

Baltimore +1 @ Houston - Forgot about this rescheduled week 2 game. We'll go back to rolling w/ this team against Sage.

 

That is all for now. Cleveland & Philly opened at -3 vs. Denver & NYG respectively and I will be on those home favorites if they dip under 3.

Also hoping the Skins win tomorrow night so that the Steelers aren't giving too many to this Colts team that isn't very good.

Carolina laying 9 on the road seems a little nuts but the Raiders are such a terrible home dog that I won't bite.

 

Edited for adding Baltimore & removing for Detroit, since God knows who their QB will be.

 

Also adding:

 

Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Indy - You never feel thrilled about laying the hook on top of the FG, particularly when the favorite's QB is banged up (and no Leftwhich is not as good as Roethlisburger based on one half Monday Night). Still not enough of a deterrent because the Colts are still being overvalued getting a relatively small # on the road against an elite team in the AFC.

 

Last Week: 0-2

YTD: 16-9-1

Edited November 8, 2008 by BuffOrange

[BuffOrange]

Week 11

 

NYJ +3.5 @ New England - The Jets seem to have enough bulk to come close to matching the Pats in the trenches, and I think they have a solid enough edge at the skill positions to make this close to a pick 'em. Homefield hasn't meant much in this series, with the Jets last two wins coming @Foxboro in '02 and '06.

 

Houston +9 @ Indy - This Texans team has some pretty large home/road splits, so I don't want to be influenced by them killing the Colts in Houston before giving the game away, but hell it's a big number, presumably in part to Roethlisburger giving one away of his own last week.

 

Jacksonville +3 vs. Tennessee - Big rivalry, physical game, home dog playing for their season vs. an undefeated team in November. Sounds good.

 

Friday Edit:

Green Bay -3.5 vs. Chicago - Lets just get the bad news out of the way first: the Packers rate of defensive TD's isn't sustainable and they had no business ever attempting a game winning FG in Minny last week. On the plus side, they are the best 4-5 team in the league by a mile (Football Outsiders agrees ranking them at #7 this week). I still think they're the best team in this division and obviously they can't afford to fall 2 games back. Orton is iffy and even if he's a go I expect he'll struggle against one of the better secondaries in the league.

 

Buffalo -5 vs. Cleveland - What the hell, I don't see the Bills losing this game. Basically it is a standard circle the wagons game which is a spot the Bills traditionally excel in, so I'll take my chances that the 5 is covered. As an added bonus I think the ability to confuse inexperienced QB's with some complex defensive schemes is one of the few things our coaching staff does well, so I expect a methodical 24-17 win of sorts.

 

Last Week: 2-1

YTD: 18-10-1

Edited November 15, 2008 by BuffOrange

[BuffOrange]

Baltimore opens -1 vs. Philly which seems silly to me, so I want to go on record as taking the Ravens now in case the line moves to 3 or whatever.

 

The end of the Chargers-Steelers was an all-time gambling moment....kinda glad I had no part of that.

[BuffOrange]

Week 12

 

Pittsburgh -10 vs. Cincy - Not my style to lay a double digit # obviously. When I try to guess the lines before they come out, I'm pretty much always within 2 points. Here I was off by 4 predicting 14. So that's that.

 

Baltimore -1 vs. Philly - Should be a standard FG line if not more imo.

 

Atlanta -1 vs. Carolina - The more I think about this pick the less I like it to be honest, but I'm going to stick with my initial instinct. Panthers are the better team but Delhomme needs to step it up because Deangelo Williams isn't going to carry your offense against a halfway decent team on the road. Like the Falcons in a bounceback week.

 

Green Bay +3 @ New Orleans - Obviously I like this Packers team, who is becoming my NFC version of the Ravens. They're the better team getting a full 3, they do everything well except stop the run which the Saints don't try to do anyway.

 

Last Week: 3-2

YTD: 21-12