Post Season look at my Preseason Preview

[WVUFootball29]

Here's my September 6th Season Preview post and my post season review of it:

 

2006 Bills regular season preview and predictions. Reviews in italics

With baseball season winding down and Labor Day now behind us, I’ve begun my transition to football season. What better to way build excitement for myself and others for the upcoming Buffalo Bills season than to sit down and take a look at what we have in store for us this season.

 

2005 Record (5-11)

 

Major Departures: Lawyer Milloy, Sam Adams, Mike Williams, Bennie Anderson, Eric Moulds, Ron Edwards, Jeff Posey, Tom Donahoe, Mike Mularkey & Co.

 

New Faces: Robert Royal, Larry Tripplett, Melvin Fowler, Peerless Price, Dick Jauron, Marv Levy, Andre Davis, Craig Nall, Tutan Reyes, Anthony Thomas.

 

2006 Draft Class: Donte Whinter (SS, Ohio State, 8th OVR), John McCargo (DT, NC State, 26th OVR), Ashton Youboty (CB, Ohio State, 70th OVR), Ko Simpson (FS, South Carolina, 105th OVR), Kyle Williams (DT, LSU, 134th OVR), Brad Butler (OT, Virginia, 143rd OVR), Keith Ellison (LB, Oregon State, 178th OVR), Terrance Pennington (OT, New Mexico, 216th OVR), Aaron Merz (OG, Cal, 248th OVR)

 

Returning Offensive Starters(Opening Day Rosters): 6

 

Returning Defensive Starters: 6

 

Position Preview

 

Quarterback: JP Losman has unceremoniously earned the starting QB job over aging journeyman Kelly Holcomb and the injury hampered Craig Nall. This season appears to be the make or break year for JP and he, as well as everyone else, knows this. From what I’ve seen of JP in this preseason he appears to be more relaxed and technically sound than last season. I attribute this to two factors, improved positional coaching and the removal of gimmick plays from the main playbook. However, at times Losman has still shown the tendency to have technical breakdowns from time to time, which forces his errant throws and bounce passes to receivers. He’s going to need to keep a level head this season, and hopefully an improved line will help him to do so.

 

Losman definitely took a step in the right direction this year and finished the season as one of the top rated QB’s. While he still had a few technical breakdowns from time to time, once the offense opened up he proved he could play QB at this level and showed us time and time again he has the arm to play in the worst weather/wind that Buffalo, NY can dish out. He also proved his durability by taking every regular season snap for the Bills. Grade: A-

 

Runningback: McGahee returns as the Bills feature back, and appears to have a refreshed attitude when it comes to the running game. He has looked very solid through the preseason, thanks in part to shaving a few pounds off in the offseason. As long as Willis averages between 20 and 25 touches per game he should finish the season with about 1500 yards and 15 TDs.

 

I don’t know where that refreshed attitude went, but Willis did not show it during the regular season. He finished the season at less than 1,000 yards rushing and looked like he really didn’t care about moving the ball, except against Jonathan Vilma and the Jets. 2007 is a contract year for McGahee, but I would prefer to see the Bills shop him around this offseason. Grade C-

 

Right behind Willis is Anthony Thomas, a Jauron import from his days in Chicago. While Thomas is about the same size as Willis, he is more of a power runner compared to McGahee. Hopefully this will make opposing defenses respect the run more on 3rd and short as compared to last year when Shaud Williams replaced McGahee as the RB in most cases.

 

A-Train played well for the Bills coming off the bench, but still was ineffective as a runner. However, he seemed to put forth a bit more effort than WM and showed the ability to at least get the ball back to the LOS. I hope the Bills bring him back next year. Grade C+

 

Coming as a surprise to most Buffalo fans, Shaud Williams made the team as the Bills #3 RB over fan favorite Lionel Gates. While Shaud’s lack of size isn’t ideal for a run heavy offense, he still is a reliable outside runner and has a solid pair of hands out of the backfield.

 

Shaud Williams had little to know playtime this season. I don’t expect to see him in a Bills uniform next year. Grade: F

 

Daimon Shelton returns as the FB, much to the dismay of many Bills fans. However, Shelton as been a solid blocker over the years, and as long as he’s not used in gimmick plays, or depended on as the primary receiver out of the backfield he should have a solid season.

 

Shelton had an alright year as a blocker and managed 7 receptions as a receiver. However, he is clearly on the last legs of his NFL career and finished 2006 on IR. It’s time for the Bills to cut ties and find a young FB to take his place. Grade: C

 

Wide Receiver: Lee Evans takes over for the disgruntled Eric Moulds. Evans has all the makings of a #1 wideout. Hopefully this season he will bring his game to a new level, especially since he will be seeing more double teams as the primary target.

 

Lee Evans showed he has what it takes to be the next Tory Holt. Losman to Evans should be a staple of the Bills offense in 2007. A solid possession receiver opposite Evans would make him even more of a threat. Grade: A

 

Josh Reed returns to the Bills as the #2 receiver. Reed is a great run blocker, but a mediocre receiver. Reed hasn’t been the same since the opening game of his sophomore campaign when he dropped a sure touchdown off a flea-flicker from Drew Bledsoe. He did show promise as a receiver late last year, hopefully he’ll be used out of the slot more where he seems to get favorable match-ups and performs much better.

Peerless Price returns to the Bills after stints in Atlanta and Dallas. Price was a solid receiver for the Bills, but was unable to duplicate his stats as the primary receiver for the Falcons. Hopefully the experience away from Buffalo has humbled Peerless and will make him focus on being a solid playmaker instead of a superstar.

Sam Aiken, now in his 4th season with Buffalo appears to be the #4 WR. Sam has the same build as Eric Moulds, however has not been able to become his clone. This season in my mind is a make or break year of Aiken. Sam did look pretty good this preseason, so hopefully he can step things up and become our big target downfield.

Andre Davis and Roscoe Parrish round out the WR corps. Davis is a tall speedster with good hand and a habit of always being injured. If he can stay healthy he should be able to produce good numbers for the Bills. Parrish, the little burner from Miami, appears to see a little less time on the field as a receiver and will mostly play special teams. While Parrish has all the speed you could ever need, I feel his size will be the reason his game will not transfer well from college to the pros.

 

Reed and Price played well as secondary WRs this year. While their stats do not look great on paper, their presence helped Evans draw single coverage and JP Losman to throw for over 3000 yards this season. Roscoe Parrish showed flashes of greatness to go along with a few brain farts here and there. However, he is a threat to make a big play anytime he catches the ball. Andre Davis played solid on special teams this year and Aiken was pretty much non-existant. Secondary WRs Grade: B-

 

Tight Ends: There has been a major overhaul at this position. Mark Campbell was released and Tim Euhus was traded away to New Orleans. Robert Royal steps in as the new #1 TE. Royal, an import from the Redskins, brings a combination of size and speed to the position. Royal is an above average blocker and has solid hands, something that has been missing from this position for a few seasons now. If Losman can find him in the passing game, the field is really going to open up for the Bills.

Kevin Everett looks ready to take the field for the first time in the regular season after missing the entire year in 2005 to a knee injury. While a bit undersized for a TE, he has the speed to stretch the field with his speed. This should give the defense something to think about in 2TE sets. As long as he can stay healthy, Kevin should be a contributor to this offense.

Ryan Neufeld returns as a TE/Utility player with the ability to play FB and LS as well. The oft-injured Neufeld will see time all over the field this season, but isn’t expected to be an impact player.

 

While it took him a while to make his mark in this offense Royal had a pretty good second half of the year. However, there were a few key plays that leave his receiving abilities suspect. Everett hardly saw the field on offense and it proving to be another Donahoe bust. Neufeld had only one catch, but it was for a touchdown, but he finished the year on IR. Cieslak played alright as an H-back, but is disposable. Grade: D+

 

Offensive Line: The Achilles’ heel of the offense the past few years, there are 3 new faces on this year’s opening day roster compared to last years. Melvin Fowler takes the place of Trey Teague at center. Fowler stepped in and finished the season as the starter for the Vikings last year and should be a considerable upgrade over the misplaced Teague.

Tutan Reyes takes over for Bennie Anderson at LG. Reyes started all 16 games for the Panthers last year and will bring a bit more athleticism to the position than we had with Anderson. His presence should help the inside running game immensely.

Jason Peters is now the permanent starter at RT. A rare combination of size and athletic ability, Peters is only going to get better with more game experience. A good showing this season will make Bills fans quickly forget about the bust Mike Williams (who the Bucs are already displeased with).

Mike Gandy and Chris Villarial return as the starters at LT and RG respectively. Gandy is an adequate tackle, but is much better as a guard and Villarial is a seasoned veteran on the downside of his career. Both should make it through the season just fine, but theirs days in Buffalo maybe numbered after the end of the year.

Duke Preston, Brad Butler, Aaron Merz, and Terrance Pennington round out the rest of the OL. Preston has shown promise both at the C and G position, but is still a season or two away from becoming a solid starter. Butler, Merz, and Pennington are all rookies, but the coaching staff apparently sees enough promise to let the other backups with NFL experience go.

 

While the line looked horrible to start the season, Jauron’s midseason shake-up seemed to really help the line finally gel as a unit. Peters and Pennington give us a nice set of young bookend Tackles who both should improve this offseason. Gandy took over for Reyes at LG and appeared to be adequate there. CV spent most of the season on IR and his career is definitely nearing its end. Preston played adequately in his place, but isn’t starting quality yet. Grade: C-

 

Defensive Line: Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay return in 2006 as the starters at DE. Schobel had 12 sacks on a Bills defense that was ranked near the bottom of the NFL and is the only proven commodity on the line. Kelsay is a bit of a wild card this year. He has slimmed down since last year and is focused on playing strictly end, instead of rotating throughout the DL as he did last year.

Ryan Denney returns to spell Kelsay at LDE. Denney, while not a playmaker, is a contributor on the DL. His size and strength allows him to play any DL position making him useful in depth. Eric Powell has finally made an NFL roster after spending 2 seasons in NFL-Europe for the Packers.

Schobel, Kelsay, and Denney combined for 21.5 sacks at DE and Aaron earned his first Pro Bowl appearance. I’d like to see this unit back with a solid rookie prospect rotating in for 2007. Grade: A

 

Larry Tripplett and Kyle Williams are slated to start at DT. Tripplett looks to add an inside pass rush, which Buffalo severely lacked in 2005. Williams is a surprise to take the starting job over Tim Anderson. Williams had a solid preseason and appears to be ready to play at the NFL level, and if he is he might just be the steal of the draft.

John McCargo and Tim Anderson are the reserve DTs. McCargo is a first round pick that the Bills traded up for, much to the dismay of many draft experts. On paper McCargo looks to be of the same mold as Tripplett. However, McCargo also played on a DL with Mario Williams and Manny Lawson who were both first round picks as well. The question looms if McCargo is the real deal, or the product of a solid defense at NC State. Tim Anderson is now in his 3rd season with the Bills, and while he hasn’t played quite to the expectations set before him, he has started to show signs of progress. His play this season might determine if he has a job in 07.

Kyle Williams led this subpar DT unit with 53 tackles. Triplett and Anderson’s presence was almost non-existant at times. McCargo went down early in the season so the jury is still out on him as a 1st round pick. I think its time for Anderson to hit the dusty trail and we need to bring in one solid DT via free agency to fit into this 4 man rotation. I’m not opposed to drafting a DT this year, but I don’t feel it is a 1st round concern in 2007. Grade: C—

 

Linebackers: The question on everyone’s mind is, “Will Takeo Spikes be the player he was before his injury?” In my opinion the answer is, yes. While Spikes is still less than a year removed from the injury, I feel that by the end of the year his hard work will pay off and he’ll be back to 100%. However, he’s not there yet and needs to take it easy still and let Mario Haggan take a few of his plays the first half of the year. Haggan is in his 4th year with the Bills and has been a solid reserve and special teams player. The better he plays this season the more Spikes can rest and be productive until he is completely healed.

London Fletcher returns for his 5th season with the Bills at MLB. Fletcher has been one of the most productive linebackers in Bills history, and one of the highest paid, which as led many to believe his time in Buffalo is coming to an end, especially with the Bills current youth movement. However, I see this as untrue given the fact that the only other MLB on the roster is John DiGiorgio, an UDFA rookie. As long as he is productive and is affordable, Fletcher will be a staple in this LB corps. DiGiorgio is a prospect out of Saginaw Valley State, a D-II school. John was named D-II Linebacker of the Year in 2005. DiGiorgio was a long shot to make this team, but it appears as if the Bills are convinced he has the talent because he is the only other MLB listed on the roster.

Angelo Crowell’s good play in the absence of Takeo Spikes last season has rewarded him with the starting WLB job in 2006. Crowell had 125 tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 interceptions for the Bills last year. He replaces Jeff Posey, now with the Redskins, with youth and speed to fit Dick Jauron’s Cover 2 Defense. Behind Crowell is rookie Keith Ellison, and journeyman Josh Stamer. Ellison is a 6th round pick out of Oregon State. He is a bit undersized for an OLB, but has the speed and range to make up for it in this defense. Keith started all his games at OSU and was awarded All-Pac-10 status and All-American honorable mention in 2005. Josh Stamer is in his 4th year in the NFL. Played mostly on special teams with the Bills the past 3 seasons, but has played well on defense in the past 2 preseasons.

Spikes return was delayed by a hamstring injury and never was at 100% this year. While some are quick to say he’s finished, I’d like to give him one more season to get healthy and see what he can do then. Fletcher led the Bills once again in tackles and was a Pro Bowl snub again. However, he did seem a bit suspect against the run this year and is currently a FA this offseason. It is unknown at this time if he will return to Buffalo for 2007. Crowell had a solid season before going down with a broken leg. Hopefully he can be at 100% by opening day next year. Keith Ellison is looking like a real fit in the Cover 2 and was a 6th round steal of a pick. He should see plenty of time in 2007. Stamer spent most of the year on IR and DiGiorgio played alright, but was often injured as well. Buffalo needs to address the LB corps this offseason via Free Agency and the draft. Grade: B-

 

Cornerback: Nate Clements is back for a 6th season with the Bills. The former Pro-Bowler had only 2 interceptions last year and appeared to get beat numerous times by the more prolific WRs in the NFL. It was a surprise after such a poor season the Bills would claim him as a franchise player. However, if Clements wants to see the money after this season is over, he’s going to have to put up some solid numbers to prove he is worth it. Starting across the field from Clements is the electrifying Terrance McGee. McGee had 3 interceptions for the Bills last year along with a kick returned for a TD. Terrence is a threat to score anytime he has the ball in his hands, however his coverage skills are a bit suspect at times. Hopefully this will change with a different defensive scheme and more experience.

Jabari Greer, Kiwaukee Thomas, and rookie Ashton Youboty are the reserve CBs. Greer is in his 3rd season with the Bills as an UDFA out of Tennessee. Greer has played well at nickelback and on special teams for the Bills. Kiwaukee Thomas is a free agent acquisition from Miami by way of Jacksonville. He is a decent cover corner but has only 11 starts in 6 NFL seasons. However, he is the most experienced CB on the team outside of Troy Vincent. Rookie Ashton Youboty was taken in the 3rd round of a Buffalo draft that focused mainly on defense. Youboty was a great cover CB in college, but only produced 5 interceptions at Ohio State. Ashton was 4th on his team in tackles with 56 and garnered 1st team All Big-10 honors last year.

Clements came to play in his contract year. He recorded 72 stops with 3 ints and one for a TD. However, that production along with NC being upset about being tagged for 2006, might lead him right out of Buffalo this offseason. Hopefully, the Bills can put together a solid offer and retain his services. McGee played well at corner and had a decent year returning kickoffs as well. However, I don’t think he’ll be able to take over for NC as the number 1 CB on this roster. Kiwaukee Thomas played well at nickel, but did not produce any turnover. Ashton Youboty hardly saw any action this season and Greer was almost nonexistent in the secondary. Number 1 CB is a top priority for the Bills this offseason. Grade: C+

 

Safeties: Troy Vincent and Matt Bowen are slated to start opening day at FS and SS respectively. However, by the end of the season both could be replaced by rookie safeties Ko Simpson and Donte Whitner. Vincent is in his 15th NFL season and his second at FS. Troy had 101 tackles and 4 interceptions for the Bills last year. While on the downside of his career, he has still been able to produce solid numbers when healthy and is a coach on the field. He may see some time at CB should Simpson surpass him as the FS during the year. Matt Bowen is another FA acquisition from the Redskins. Bowen played in 13 games last year and started 1 for the Redskins. Bowen is a decent special teams player and has been very active in the communities in which he has played in the past. While his character and hustle might have got him on this team, it probably won’t be enough to retain the starting job at SS over Whitner for very long. Donte Whitner was the 1st pick by the Levy Administration this year and the 8th overall pick in the draft. While many critics feel this was a reach at the time, Donte has the make up of a premier SS. Whitner was a All Big-10 selection last year and a 3rd team All-American Selection as well. His preseason holdout appears to have cost him the starting job for the time being, but he should earn that job before too long.

Coy Wire, must to the disgust of Bills fans across the nation has remained on the team as the 5th safety. Many feel that Wire has compromising pictures of those on the Bills staff and that is why he remains on the team despite his inability to play. In Wire’s defense, he has been a solid special teams player over the years, but even that hardly warrants him making the team as a 5th safety.

Vincent started the season as the starter at FS, but was injured then released by the Bills Ko Simpson took over and played very well for a rookie in a young secondary. Donte Whitner played well as starter at SS, finishing second on the team with 105 tackles. However, his pass defense skills need to improve this offseason to remove the question of, “Did Buffalo reach at number 8 with Whitner?” Bowen spent the majority of the season injured with a cracked bone in his leg and probably won’t be back next year. Coy Wire spent time at S and LB this year, but about the only this he contributed was depth and a punt block. Grade: B-

 

Special Teams Specialists: Rian Lindell and Brian Moorman are back, along with LS Mike Schneck. Schneck replaced John Dorenbos last year, and while he might not have the magic to pull a rabbit out of his helmet, he did seem to work magic on Lindell’s kicking game. Lindell was 29 for 35 last year, including 3 for 3 from beyond 50 yards. Brian Moorman returns for his 6th season with the Bills. Last year he set career marks in Punt Average and Punts Inside the 20 yard line. A solid punter, Moorman has been one of a few players the Bills have been able to count on in the clutch the past few seasons.

 

Moorman will be representing the Bills in the Pro Bowl for the second time. He nearly set an NFL record of a net punt average over 40 yards, finishing with an avg of 39.2. Lindell had a great season for Buffalo kicking 23/25 FGs. It took him a while, but he has become a solid kicker for the Bills. Grade: A+

 

Coaching Staff: Dick Jauron returns to Buffalo as Head Coach. This will be his second official stint as an NFL HC(was an interim HC in Detroit last year.) DJ went 35-46 with the Bears from 1999-2003, including a 13-3 season in 2001 that he earned Coach of the Year honors for. While his total record is not stellar, it is still 35 more wins as HC than his previous 2 counterparts combined and that experience, along with his attitude and demeanor have many Bills fans in his corner.

Steve Fairchild comes in as the Bills new OC and his counterpart Perry Fewell will run the defense. Fairchild comes from St. Louis where he was the OC for Mike Martz and an explosive Rams offense. Hopefully he can find a way to properly use the talent the Bills have on offense, something many of his predecessors were unable to do. Fewell comes to the Bills after being the Bears DB coach in 2005. Fewell’s secondary produced 2 Pro Bowlers in 2005 (Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher).

 

While play calls and clock management were suspect on numerous occasions this year, Jauron and Company did a great job with this team. While Buffalo missed the playoffs again, the foundation has been laid for a playoff run next year. It appears we finally have a coaching staff in place that will be here for more than 3 seasons. However, any step back in 2007 will have Bills fans calling for their heads. 2007 will be make or break for this staff. Grade: B

 

Schedule and Predictions:

Sun. Sept. 10 at New England (W) L

Sun. Sept. 17 at Miami (L) W

Sept. 24 NY JETS (W) L

Sun. Oct. 1 MINNESOTA (L) W

Sun. Oct. 8 at Chicago (L) L

Sun. Oct. 15 at Detroit (W) L

Sun. Oct. 22 NEW ENGLAND (L) L

Sun. Oct. 29 BYE

Sun. Nov. 5 GREEN BAY (W) W

Sun. Nov. 12 at Indianapolis (L) L

Sun. Nov. 19 at Houston (W) W

Sun. Nov. 26 JACKSONVILLE (L) W

Sun. Dec. 3 SAN DIEGO (W) L

Sun. Dec. 10 at NY Jets (W) W

Sun. Dec. 17 MIAMI (L) W

Sun. Dec. 24 TENNESSEE (W) L

Sun. Dec. 31 at Baltimore (L) L

Overall 8-8 record (7-9)

 

The way I see things, the Bills are their own worst enemies this season. They could be on the playoff bubble if they play solid mistake free football this year, but that has been the real Buffalo killer the past few seasons. Too many mistakes and missed opportunities have cost them wins and even a playoff appearance in 2004. If the coaching staff can keep the players focused and doing the little things, I truly believe that they can be an 8-8 team this year. However, if the mistakes fail to cease and Losman doesn’t emerge as a QB this season I can easily see this as a 4-12 team with a top 3 pick next year.

 

Buffalo definitely was their own worst enemy this year, but they appear to be on the right track after a late season rally and keeping all but a few games within a touchdown. Losman and the passing game really came alive, however, this year the run game was nonexistent. The defense is still lacking, but is very young at many positions so this offseason should bring plenty of improvements. Another good draft and a few big FA acquisitions will have this team playoff bound in 2007.

[Judas Priest]

This is very impressive. Did you write this at work?

[ganesh]

My take:

 

Positives:

 

Emergence of Losman, Evans, Peters

Finding a big answer at the QB position. Kudos to the coaching staff for being patient through a 2-5 start.

Playing time for young players on defense for Ellison, Whitner and Simpson.

Introducing the TE in the passing game.

Coaching staff: Ability to adapt their schemes to the players abilities and keeping things

simple.

continued good play by the special teams.

 

Negatives:

Inability to run the ball consistently

Inability to stop the run consistently

Inability to create turnovers consistently

Inability to sustain long drives consistently

Inability to make some key plays during key times in games

 

To sum up, the Bills were an upcoming inconsistent team. If they can maintain the continuity and add a few more pieces to the puzzle, they will be competing for a playoffs next year.

[WVUFootball29]

This is very impressive. Did you write this at work?

 

LOL actually yeah I wrote the preview at work...there's nothing to do at 5am with no bad guys around...glad we have computers

 

the post season review was done last night at home though