ezbills Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 If the Bills win out, they have a solid shot at a wildcard spot. Most of the other teams they are competing with have tough schedules and the Bills will hold most or all of the tiebreakers. If Buffalo goes 3-0 (finishing at 9-7, 7-5), they would need the following to get a wildcard berth: - KC one loss AND - NYJ loss to MIA (OR NYJ losses to both MIN and OAK) AND 2 of the following 3 things: - 2 JAX losses - 2 DEN losses (OR 1 DEN loss and 1 KC loss so KC wins tiebraker over DEN) - 2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker There is a great chance that KC will lose at SD next week, ensuring that the Bills will tie or finish ahead of them. The Chiefs also have games against the Raiders and Jaguars. The Bills would hold the tiebreaker with any Chiefs loss based on AFC record. Given Miami's performance today and how awful the Jets looked vs the Bills, there's a good chance that Miami will beat the Jets in Miami. In that scenario, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker over the Jets based on AFC record. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and the Bills would need the Jets to finish at 8-8 by losing to the Vikings and Raiders. That leaves JAX, CIN, DEN, and BUF for 2 wildcard spots. Jacksonville has a difficult remaining schedule with the Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. Should the Jags lose 2 of those 3, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker based on AFC record (the head-to-head win vs the Jags only matters in a 2-team tie). The Broncos are self-destructing having lost 4 in a row after starting 7-2. They could easily lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games against the Cardinals (who just beat Seattle), Bengals and 49ers. Should Denver lose just one game, the Bills would lose the tiebreaker unless the Chiefs also finished with a 9-7 record, in which case the Bills would beat both KC and DEN. The most interesting tiebreaker would be vs the Bengals who have tough games coming up against the Colts, Broncos and Steelers. The Bills and Bengals would likely have the same AFC record and the same record vs common opponents, so the tiebreaker would go to strenth of victory (i.e. the combined winning percentage of all the teams you beat). The Bills currently hold the advantage in this tiebreaker thanks in part to the Dolphins' recent run of wins. BUF strength of victory (58-59): MIA, MIN, GB, HOU, JAX, NYJ, (MIA, TEN, BAL) 6-7 6-7 5-8 4-9 8-5 7-6 (6-7 6-7 10-3) CIN strength of victory (53-63): KC, CLE, PIT, CAR, NO, CLE, BAL OAK (PIT) 7-6 4-9 6-7 6-7 *8-4 4-9 10-3 2-11 6-7 In my opinion, the 2 games that will determine the Bills' playoff fate (other than the Bills' own games) is next week's Jags/ Titans matchup and the Jets/Miami night game. If the Titans and Dolphins win those games, the Bills will have a great shot at a wildcard birth if they run the table. Remember, the Steelers were in a similar position with a few weeks to play last season and things worked out pretty well for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills4bowl21 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 wow great explanation..i was wondering how we could make the playoffs during today's game but it just got too confusing and hard to do without sitting down and thinking about it hard....thanks...i appreciate it GO BILLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCBongo Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 I'll have what your drinking I love the optimism, but lets just hope they win the next 3 to win out and continue geling as a unit. IF, this can get them in the playoffs, then, cool. But, I do not think the stars are aligning for this team.... this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 wow great explanation..i was wondering how we could make the playoffs during today's game but it just got too confusing and hard to do without sitting down and thinking about it hard....thanks...i appreciate it GO BILLS 862342[/snapback] Thanks! I guess going 11 years without seeing the Bills win a playoff game (well, if you don't count the Music City Ripoff as a "win") has helped contribute to my NFL tiebreaker nerdery! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loadofmularkey Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 If the Bills win out, they have a solid shot at a wildcard spot. Most of the other teams they are competing with have tough schedules and the Bills will hold most or all of the tiebreakers.If Buffalo goes 3-0 (finishing at 9-7, 7-5), they would need the following to get a wildcard berth: - KC one loss AND - NYJ loss to MIA (OR NYJ losses to both MIN and OAK) AND 2 of the following 3 things: - 2 JAX losses - 2 DEN losses (OR 1 DEN loss and 1 KC loss so KC wins tiebraker over DEN) - 2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker There is a great chance that KC will lose at SD next week, ensuring that the Bills will tie or finish ahead of them. The Chiefs also have games against the Raiders and Jaguars. The Bills would hold the tiebreaker with any Chiefs loss based on AFC record. Given Miami's performance today and how awful the Jets looked vs the Bills, there's a good chance that Miami will beat the Jets in Miami. In that scenario, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker over the Jets based on AFC record. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and the Bills would need the Jets to finish at 8-8 by losing to the Vikings and Raiders. That leaves JAX, CIN, DEN, and BUF for 2 wildcard spots. Jacksonville has a difficult remaining schedule with the Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. Should the Jags lose 2 of those 3, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker based on AFC record (the head-to-head win vs the Jags only matters in a 2-team tie). The Broncos are self-destructing having lost 4 in a row after starting 7-2. They could easily lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games against the Cardinals (who just beat Seattle), Bengals and 49ers. Should Denver lose just one game, the Bills would lose the tiebreaker unless the Chiefs also finished with a 9-7 record, in which case the Bills would beat both KC and DEN. The most interesting tiebreaker would be vs the Bengals who have tough games coming up against the Colts, Broncos and Steelers. The Bills and Bengals would likely have the same AFC record and the same record vs common opponents, so the tiebreaker would go to strenth of victory (i.e. the combined winning percentage of all the teams you beat). The Bills currently hold the advantage in this tiebreaker thanks in part to the Dolphins' recent run of wins. BUF strength of victory (58-59): MIA, MIN, GB, HOU, JAX, NYJ, (MIA, TEN, BAL) 6-7 6-7 5-8 4-9 8-5 7-6 (6-7 6-7 10-3) CIN strength of victory (53-63): KC, CLE, PIT, CAR, NO, CLE, BAL OAK (PIT) 7-6 4-9 6-7 6-7 *8-4 4-9 10-3 2-11 6-7 In my opinion, the 2 games that will determine the Bills' playoff fate (other than the Bills' own games) is next week's Jags/ Titans matchup and the Jets/Miami night game. If the Titans and Dolphins win those games, the Bills will have a great shot at a wildcard birth if they run the table. Remember, the Steelers were in a similar position with a few weeks to play last season and things worked out pretty well for them... 862306[/snapback] This is gonna be easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornerville Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Lets just face it folks: It is beautiful just to SEE a thread like this after the way this year was going when the Bills were 2-5. Enjoy the dreaming this week. It is free to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 Well, the fact that the Bengals and Broncos play each other helps a lot since the Bills will have a great shot at tying or passing the loser of that game (although the winner will likely secure one of the wildcard spots). The Chiefs are no threat because they will get mauled by the Chargers next week who are playing for homefield advantage. That would leave the Jags, Jets, and Bills fighting for one spot. As I said before, a Jags loss next week coupled with a Fins win over the Jets would leave the Bills in great position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CFLstyle Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 let's just win the next 3, then worry about tie-breakers. I'm feeling optimistic too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olaf Fub Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 I wouldn't bet money on the Bills making it but this isn't the most implausible playoff scenario. I'll buy into the Bills maybe making the playoff for one more week. Anybody remember the year we needed a game between Seattle and, I think, the Raiders to tie in order for the Bills to make the playoffs? I want to say it was Kay Stephenson's first year as head coach. My friends and I all wore ties to school the Friday before that weekend, trying to give the Bills some good luck. (Needless to say, we didn't make it in that year. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills Fan888 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 If the Bills win out, they have a solid shot at a wildcard spot. Most of the other teams they are competing with have tough schedules and the Bills will hold most or all of the tiebreakers.If Buffalo goes 3-0 (finishing at 9-7, 7-5), they would need the following to get a wildcard berth: - KC one loss AND - NYJ loss to MIA (OR NYJ losses to both MIN and OAK) AND 2 of the following 3 things: - 2 JAX losses - 2 DEN losses (OR 1 DEN loss and 1 KC loss so KC wins tiebraker over DEN) - 2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker There is a great chance that KC will lose at SD next week, ensuring that the Bills will tie or finish ahead of them. The Chiefs also have games against the Raiders and Jaguars. The Bills would hold the tiebreaker with any Chiefs loss based on AFC record. Given Miami's performance today and how awful the Jets looked vs the Bills, there's a good chance that Miami will beat the Jets in Miami. In that scenario, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker over the Jets based on AFC record. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and the Bills would need the Jets to finish at 8-8 by losing to the Vikings and Raiders. That leaves JAX, CIN, DEN, and BUF for 2 wildcard spots. Jacksonville has a difficult remaining schedule with the Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. Should the Jags lose 2 of those 3, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker based on AFC record (the head-to-head win vs the Jags only matters in a 2-team tie). The Broncos are self-destructing having lost 4 in a row after starting 7-2. They could easily lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games against the Cardinals (who just beat Seattle), Bengals and 49ers. Should Denver lose just one game, the Bills would lose the tiebreaker unless the Chiefs also finished with a 9-7 record, in which case the Bills would beat both KC and DEN. The most interesting tiebreaker would be vs the Bengals who have tough games coming up against the Colts, Broncos and Steelers. The Bills and Bengals would likely have the same AFC record and the same record vs common opponents, so the tiebreaker would go to strenth of victory (i.e. the combined winning percentage of all the teams you beat). The Bills currently hold the advantage in this tiebreaker thanks in part to the Dolphins' recent run of wins. BUF strength of victory (58-59): MIA, MIN, GB, HOU, JAX, NYJ, (MIA, TEN, BAL) 6-7 6-7 5-8 4-9 8-5 7-6 (6-7 6-7 10-3) CIN strength of victory (53-63): KC, CLE, PIT, CAR, NO, CLE, BAL OAK (PIT) 7-6 4-9 6-7 6-7 *8-4 4-9 10-3 2-11 6-7 In my opinion, the 2 games that will determine the Bills' playoff fate (other than the Bills' own games) is next week's Jags/ Titans matchup and the Jets/Miami night game. If the Titans and Dolphins win those games, the Bills will have a great shot at a wildcard birth if they run the table. Remember, the Steelers were in a similar position with a few weeks to play last season and things worked out pretty well for them... 862306[/snapback] That's a great explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffal0 Bill5 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 I'm buying in!! Count me as a Billiever!! Onb to filet the fish!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 Lets just face it folks: It is beautiful just to SEE a thread like this after the way this year was going when the Bills were 2-5. Enjoy the dreaming this week. It is free to dream. 862406[/snapback] That's partly why I started this thread. This Bills team is better than the 2004 team that ripped off 6 wins against weak opponents before Bledsoe (and Clements) coughed up a playoff spot against Pittsburgh. The Bills have played quality football against tough teams since the bye week going 4-2 with losses to two great teams. My point is that the 12th Man should be in full force next week against Miami more than ever with playoff possibilities on the line. I really want the Christmas Eve Titans game to mean something because I'll be there!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 That's a great explanation 862423[/snapback] Well, I don't post that often but I try to make it worth reading when I do. If I see one more "Here's my 2007 Mock Draft 1st Round" thread while there are still games to play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CFLstyle Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 That's partly why I started this thread. This Bills team is better than the 2004 team that ripped off 6 wins against weak opponents before Bledsoe (and Clements) coughed up a playoff spot against Pittsburgh. The Bills have played quality football against tough teams since the bye week going 4-2 with losses to two great teams. My point is that the 12th Man should be in full force next week against Miami more than ever with playoff possibilities on the line. I really want the Christmas Eve Titans game to mean something because I'll be there!!! 862435[/snapback] Why was Clements partly to blame? He was really the only reason the BIlls even had a chance to win it with his interception return touchdown. The goats in the game were Bledoe, which goes without saying, and Lindell, who's short field goal miss (it was 20-something yards wasn't it??) seemed to suck the momentum right out of the Bills. As soon as he missed that kick, you could feel it, you knew it, it was going to start going bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fezmid Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 The goats in the game were Bledoe, which goes without saying, and Lindell, who's short field goal miss (it was 20-something yards wasn't it??) seemed to suck the momentum right out of the Bills. As soon as he missed that kick, you could feel it, you knew it, it was going to start going bad. What about Josh Reed whose boneheaded blocking penalty (which wasn't even needed) negated a touchdown and led to Lindell missing the kick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jester43 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 \My point is that the 12th Man should be in full force next week against Miami more than ever with playoff possibilities on the line. 862435[/snapback] they could start by buying up the tickets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbills Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 Why was Clements partly to blame? He was really the only reason the BIlls even had a chance to win it with his interception return touchdown. The goats in the game were Bledoe, which goes without saying, and Lindell, who's short field goal miss (it was 20-something yards wasn't it??) seemed to suck the momentum right out of the Bills. As soon as he missed that kick, you could feel it, you knew it, it was going to start going bad. 862450[/snapback] My memory could be failing me, but I believe the Bills D stuffed Pittsburgh on the opening drive, the crowd was all fired up, and then Clements fumbled away the ensuing punt which deflated the team and the crowd and gave the Steelers the momentum back. Bledsoe (turnover for a score, surprise!) and Lindell are also to blame though, as was the Bills run D which let Pittsburgh backups maul them all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurlyBurly51 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 I wouldn't bet money on the Bills making it but this isn't the most implausible playoff scenario. I'll buy into the Bills maybe making the playoff for one more week. 862418[/snapback] Me too! They were talking at halftime during tonight's game about dark horses for the playoffs in each conference, and Sharpe made himself look foolish again by picking the Titans. Bills are getting no pub, but they are obviously the best "dark horse" choice since we'll be whupping up on the Titans at home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loadofmularkey Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Me too! They were talking at halftime during tonight's game about dark horses for the playoffs in each conference, and Sharpe made himself look foolish again by picking the Titans. Bills are getting no pub, but they are obviously the best "dark horse" choice since we'll be whupping up on the Titans at home! 862504[/snapback] I saw that. Tennessee and Vince Young have been playing well, for sure, but their final three games are against Jacksonville, us and New England. Come on Sterling, you can do better. Like picking us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia Bill Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Lets just face it folks: It is beautiful just to SEE a thread like this after the way this year was going when the Bills were 2-5. I agree. If we beat both Miami and Tennessee at home (which certainly is looking do-able), we may end up at Baltimore on the last week of the season STILL with a playoff chance. Win or lose there, it would be really nice to still be in the hunt that deep into the season. I would LOVE it if we got in, but gotta say it is nice enough for me just to have some real reasons for optimism for next year. GO BILLS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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