Bills in the Playoffs?!?

[jarthur31]

If the Bills win out, they have a solid shot at a wildcard spot. Most of the other teams they are competing with have tough schedules and the Bills will hold most or all of the tiebreakers.

If Buffalo goes 3-0 (finishing at 9-7, 7-5), they would need the following to get a wildcard berth:

 

- KC one loss AND

 

- NYJ loss to MIA (OR NYJ losses to both MIN and OAK) AND

 

2 of the following 3 things:

 

- 2 JAX losses

 

- 2 DEN losses (OR 1 DEN loss and 1 KC loss so KC wins tiebraker over DEN)

 

- 2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker

There is a great chance that KC will lose at SD next week, ensuring that the Bills will tie or finish ahead of them. The Chiefs also have games against the Raiders and Jaguars. The Bills would hold the tiebreaker with any Chiefs loss based on AFC record.

 

Given Miami's performance today and how awful the Jets looked vs the Bills, there's a good chance that Miami will beat the Jets in Miami. In that scenario, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker over the Jets based on AFC record. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and the Bills would need the Jets to finish at 8-8 by losing to the Vikings and Raiders.

 

That leaves JAX, CIN, DEN, and BUF for 2 wildcard spots. Jacksonville has a difficult remaining schedule with the Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. Should the Jags lose 2 of those 3, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker based on AFC record (the head-to-head win vs the Jags only matters in a 2-team tie).

 

The Broncos are self-destructing having lost 4 in a row after starting 7-2. They could easily lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games against the Cardinals (who just beat Seattle), Bengals and 49ers. Should Denver lose just one game, the Bills would lose the tiebreaker unless the Chiefs also finished with a 9-7 record, in which case the Bills would beat both KC and DEN.

 

The most interesting tiebreaker would be vs the Bengals who have tough games coming up against the Colts, Broncos and Steelers. The Bills and Bengals would likely have the same AFC record and the same record vs common opponents, so the tiebreaker would go to strenth of victory (i.e. the combined winning percentage of all the teams you beat). The Bills currently hold the advantage in this tiebreaker thanks in part to the Dolphins' recent run of wins.

 

BUF strength of victory (58-59):

MIA, MIN, GB,  HOU, JAX, NYJ, (MIA, TEN, BAL)

6-7  6-7  5-8  4-9  8-5  7-6  (6-7  6-7  10-3)

 

CIN strength of victory (53-63):

KC, CLE, PIT, CAR, NO,  CLE, BAL  OAK (PIT)

7-6  4-9  6-7  6-7  *8-4  4-9  10-3  2-11 6-7

In my opinion, the 2 games that will determine the Bills' playoff fate (other than the Bills' own games) is next week's Jags/ Titans matchup and the Jets/Miami night game. If the Titans and Dolphins win those games, the Bills will have a great shot at a wildcard birth if they run the table.

 

Remember, the Steelers were in a similar position with a few weeks to play last season and things worked out pretty well for them...

862306[/snapback]

 

I don't think that's gonna happen. How do expect all these AFC teams to completely mail it in?

 

I could live with a 9-7 record.

[Dwight Drane]

You may have to trust me on my math here....but I am using probabilities with pointspeads figured in as to chances of certain outcomes.

 

The hardest part of any scenario is BUFFALO WINNING 2 GAMES. That may be a shock, but there is a better chance of other teams faltering, than us winning both games.

 

We are 3.5 point favorites against TEN which translates to winning almost 2/3 of the time. We will be anywhere from a 1-6 point underdog in Baltimore depending on their homefield chances, I'll use 4.5 which means we will win about 30% of the time or so. This leaves Buffalo with a 20% chance of winning both games.

 

We need 3 of the 4 after KC loses tonight:

 

1)Jets lose to Miami...MIA 1.5 favorites, just under 60% chance to happen

 

2)Jax loses 1 game to either NE or KC. Jags 3 point favorites against NE in Florida and I would peg a pickem against KC away. 70% chance of happening

 

3)CIN lose to IND +3 and then at DEN +2 or home vs PIT -6....about 50% chance

or win vs IND and lose final 2....about 15% chance for a total of 65%

 

4)DEN lose to both CIN -2 and SF -8.....less than 15%..OR..win 1 of two and have KC beat OAK-3 and JAX pick....just under 15% for a total of 30%

 

Odds of Missing with Bills@ 9-7:

 

Jets-Jax-Cin 25%

Jets-Jax-Den 12%

Jax-Cin-Den 15%

Cin-Jets-Den 12%

All 4 teams 7%

 

With Buffalo having a 20% chance of winning both of their games....the chances of the Bills in the playoffs are this:

 

Buf+Den 5%

Buf+Jets 3%

Buf+Cin 2.5%

Buf+Jax 2.5%

Buf+? 1.5%

 

This leaves Buffalo with a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs assuming my point spreads and odds.

 

I need a beer!

[Koufax]

So a bunch has unfolded since this scenario was first laid out, including the Chiefs losing to SD a few minutes ago.

 

Now it seems we need:

 

NYJ loss to MIA AND

 

2 of the following 3 things:

 

-1 JAX loss (NE, @KC)

 

-2 DEN losses (or the KC tiebreaker thing?) (CIN, SF)

 

-2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker (@IND, @DEN, PIT)

 

I think a Jacksonville loss is very likely in one of those games (without it we need all four of the DEN and CIN results to go our way).

 

The interesting thing is that next week Cincinnati plays Denver, which guarantees one of the above games goes our way (and also that one goes against us). If Cincinnati wins tomorrow they get a big strength of victory boost, so that might be impossible and we might need two Denver losses (or 1-1 with two KC wins).

 

The other thing to note is that if we win against Tennessee next week and Miami beats the Jets, we will be alive going into the final week no matter what else happens.

 

Go Bills!

[Fan in San Diego]

Two Cinci losses is the proverbial wrench in our playoff bid.

 

Cinci is coming on Strong now.

[HurlyBurly51]

So could we control our own destiny after next week? If we beat Tenn, Jets lose to Miami, Jax loses to NE, and Cinci loses tomorrow to Indy and next week at Denver, all we need in the last week is a win against Baltimore? Could that be correct if all the stars aligned?

 

 

So a bunch has unfolded since this scenario was first laid out, including the Chiefs losing to SD a few minutes ago.

 

Now it seems we need:

 

NYJ loss to MIA AND

 

2 of the following 3 things:

 

-1 JAX loss (NE, @KC)

 

-2 DEN losses (or the KC tiebreaker thing?) (CIN, SF)

 

-2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker (@IND, @DEN, PIT)

 

I think a Jacksonville loss is very likely in one of those games (without it we need all four of the DEN and CIN results to go our way).

 

The interesting thing is that next week Cincinnati plays Denver, which guarantees one of the above games goes our way (and also that one goes against us).  If Cincinnati wins tomorrow they get a big strength of victory boost, so that might be impossible and we might need two Denver losses (or 1-1 with two KC wins).

 

The other thing to note is that if we win against Tennessee next week and Miami beats the Jets, we will be alive going into the final week no matter what else happens.

 

Go Bills!

870270[/snapback]

[East Brady]

I think we have a very good chance if we take care of business and it seems the team believes this also......So for next week we just win and become big Miami fans for the day and that will make me happy, I just want to see this team have a chance going into the final week end.....Also next week starts monday night, lets go colts, and I see the bengals losing 2 of those games starting monday.....

[Dwight Drane]

I think we have a very good chance if we take care of business and it seems the team believes this also......So for next week we just win and become big Miami fans for the day and that will make me happy, I just want to see this team have a chance going into the final week end.....Also next week starts monday night, lets go colts, and I see the bengals losing 2  of those games starting monday.....

870296[/snapback]

 

I'm glad the team feels that way, because it is up to them. I feel that when the season is over, the things we needed to happen will have happened and it will be up to us to sweep.

[Koufax]

I love all the logic and tie breakers, but what it really comes down to is this:

 

We need Buffalo and Miami to win next week.

 

The other stuff can shuffle in a bunch of different ways, and I look forward to getting a full list of who to root for (starting with Indy at home tomorrow), but everything else has options and permutations and alternatives.

 

Also, is it possible for the Jets to get in at #5 (beating Miami?), and us to still make it by both the pass-the-Bengals and pass-the-Broncos scenarios playing out? Just curious if this is an option, or if Jets-Fish is really a do or die for us...

 

Also it will be interesting that the Bills play before the CIN-DEN and NYJ-MIA games next week, and before the SF-DEN game in two weeks. That reduces the focus on scoreboard watching somewhat, and reduces the chance of finding out halfway through that the game that you thought mattered doesn't matter so much.

 

In the end, the hardest piece of the puzzle is definitely beating Baltimore, but the single most exciting and important thing is getting a chance for that game to matter. Much better than expectations were at the start of the season.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Also, is it possible for the Jets to get in at #5 (beating Miami?), and us to still make it by both the pass-the-Bengals and pass-the-Broncos scenarios playing out?  Just curious if this is an option, or if Jets-Fish is really a do or die for us...

870380[/snapback]

 

I think so

[ezbills]

So could we control our own destiny after next week?   If we beat Tenn, Jets lose to Miami, Jax loses to NE, and Cinci loses tomorrow to Indy and next week at Denver, all we need in the last week is a win against Baltimore?  Could that be correct if all the stars aligned?

870288[/snapback]

 

That sounds right, although it would still go down to the strength of victory tiebreaker with the Bengals which will not be finalized until after all the Week 17 games. The Bills currently have a decent edge in that tiebreaker.

[ezbills]

Also, is it possible for the Jets to get in at #5 (beating Miami?), and us to still make it by both the pass-the-Bengals and pass-the-Broncos scenarios playing out?  Just curious if this is an option, or if Jets-Fish is really a do or die for us...

 

870380[/snapback]

 

Yes, the Bills could get in if the Jets win, although we would need the Bengals to lose tonight, win next week, and lose in Week 17. If the Bengals win tonight, a Jets win vs. Miami would eliminate the Bills.

[ezbills]

If the Colts win tonight, the tiebreaker between the Bengals and Bills would be strength of victory (the combined winning percentage of all teams that they defeated).

 

The Bills strength of victory (with upcoming wins against TEN and BAL included) is currently 62-64, with 18 total games remaining. Here is a list of who the Bills have defeated or will defeat and their remaining schedules:

 

BAL 11-3 PIT Buf

JAX 8-6 NE KC

NYJ 8-6 MIA OAK

TEN 7-7 BUF NE

MIA(2x) 6-8 NYJ IND

MIN 6-8 GB STL

GB 6-8 MIN CHI

HOU 4-10 IND CLE

 

 

The Bengals strength of victory (with an upcoming win against DEN or PIT included) is currently 58-68, with 18 total games remaining. Here is a list of who the Bengals have defeated or will defeat and their remaining schedules:

 

BAL 11-3 PIT Buf

NO 9-5 NYG CAR

DEN 8-6 CIN SF

KC 7-7 OAK JAX

PIT 7-7 BAL CIN

CAR 6-8 ATL NO

CLE(2x) 4-10 TB HOU

OAK 2-12 KC NYJ

 

The Dolphins count twice for the Bills because of the season sweep, and the Browns count twice for the Bengals because of the season sweep.

 

When you factor in the fact that TEN will pick up a loss to Buf, Den or Pit will pick up a loss to Cin, the Ravens will have losses to both Cincy and Buf, Mia and NYJ play each other, GB and MIN play each other, KC and Oak play each other, and NO and Car play each other: the Bills' strength of victory is really 64-68 with 11 games remaining, and the Bengals' strength of victory is really 61-72 with 10 games remaining.

 

This is obviously not a guaranteed tiebreaker for Buffalo, but the odds are in the Bills favor at this point.