daquixers_is_back Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 I think this is a pretty solid lineup for this week ... teased results Buffalo Bills Pick (0) Football - NFL Lines NFL WEEK 3 - Pointspread Indianapolis Colts -1 Football - NFL Lines NFL WEEK 3 - Pointspread Washington Redskins +2 Football - NFL Lines NFL WEEK 3 - Pointspread Chicago Bears +2 Football - NFL Lines NFL WEEK 3 - Pointspread Baltimore Ravens -1 Football - NFL Lines NFL WEEK 3 - Pointspread Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Over 27½ $60 to win $400 edit ... also possibly adding in Atlanta over New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 No offence but these are some dreadful picks IMO. I don't play teasers much but it seems like you can find lines more favorable than these. Taking the Skins & Bears +2 on the road is really asking for it; I'd much rather go the other way on those games and take 8-9 points if I had to. But what about the Lions, Eagles, and Pats all at around -1? Or Tennessee +17? edited cause I mistakenly said Houston instead of Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted September 22, 2006 Author Share Posted September 22, 2006 No offence but these are some dreadful picks IMO. I don't play teasers much but it seems like you can find lines more favorable than these. Taking the Skins & Bears +2 on the road is really asking for it; I'd much rather go the other way on those games and take 8-9 points if I had to. But what about the Lions, Eagles, and Pats all at around -1? Or Houston +17? 783258[/snapback] Yeah I actually am taking Philly now. And I would take Houston ... but even with the teaser they are only +10 and for all I know Portis and Co could go nuts on the lowly Texans and route them. You dont agree that Washington will beat Houston? Also. With the way the Bears are playing, I woiuld take them over almost anybody, anywhere. Maybe not by a ton, but at least WIN ... which at +2 as long as they win the game, I will win my bet. And after Brett Favre's 3 TD performance last week, Im worried that the Lions may not win the game against GB. Pats at -1 is not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 Anyone elses thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Good luck, bro. Like Buff, I doubt your teaser will hit because I think at least one or two of those teams will lose. If I had to guess, I think Indy and Chicago are going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 Good luck, bro. Like Buff, I doubt your teaser will hit because I think at least one or two of those teams will lose. If I had to guess, I think Indy and Chicago are going down. 783347[/snapback] haha im use to it .. my parlays hardly ever work ... last week we lost by ONE GAME! wooh were we dissapointed. It was the Rams-San Fran game .... we picked the Rams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max997 Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Anyone elses thoughts? 783335[/snapback] New Orleans will win that game outright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 New Orleans will win that game outright 783365[/snapback] I absolutely dont agree ... and Im willing to put money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 For anyone interested, I settled on the below teaser parlay. I put in $42.10 for a chance to win $421.00 Chicago Bears +2 Competitor: Minnesota Vikings Buffalo Bills Pick Competitor: New York Jets Baltimore Ravens -1 Competitor: Cleveland Browns Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Over 27½ New York Giants +9½ Competitor: Seattle Seahawks Philadelphia Eagles -½ Competitor: San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons +2 Competitor: New Orleans Saints The only game(s) im slightly worried about are the Bears (who I think is the best team in football right now) and the Giants ... but other than that, I like this spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 I love Cleveland this week. I think they win that game outright, but I'll take the 7 point head start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 I love Cleveland this week. I think they win that game outright, but I'll take the 7 point head start. 783401[/snapback] May I ask why you think the 0-2 Browns will beat the 2-0 Ravens who have outscored opponents 55-6 and defense has let up less than 155 yards to the opponents offense (on average), and has yet to give up a TD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 May I ask why you think the 0-2 Browns will beat the 2-0 Ravens who have outscored opponents 55-6 and defense has let up less than 155 yards to the opponents offense (on average), and has yet to give up a TD? 783416[/snapback] ATBNG and I are on the same page in liking home dogs a lot. The Ravens have looked great so far, but the Bucs & Raiders appear pretty bad and failed to score a TD in their other games as well. Also, the Ravens offense wasn't very good vs. Oakland. Of course the Browns have been awful so far, but if they're not up for this game they'll never be up for any game. Last year they were an impossible team to get a handle on - I kinda think under Romeo they've replaced the Haslett Saints as the "bad wildly unpredictable team you should never wager on or against". I wouldn't be at all surprised if they won outright, but I'd really want no part of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 I see you took Indy out but left Chicago in. I think the Bears are going to cause you lots of heartburn this weekend. Here's the thing... you didn't really accomplish much by teasing the Bears to +2. The original spread was low enough that whoever won the game was probably going to cover the spread anyway, and +2 doesn't change that at all. That's really the case for most NFL games...whichever team wins will cover. In the first two weeks of the NFL season, the team that got the W also covered the spread 28 out of 32 games. That means all you had to do to be 28-4 against the spread was pick the right team to win in each game. That percentage is pretty much right in line with previous seasons as well. Basically, I'm saying I hope you're right that the Bears will win, but if you're wrong, the tease won't help you out. In general, for teasers, I think it's better to take a big number and make it even bigger rather than taking a low number and keeping it low, especially when you're betting against a good team playing at home. For anyone interested, I settled on the below teaser parlay. I put in $42.10 for a chance to win $421.00 Chicago Bears +2 Competitor: Minnesota Vikings Buffalo Bills Pick Competitor: New York Jets Baltimore Ravens -1 Competitor: Cleveland Browns Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Over 27½ New York Giants +9½ Competitor: Seattle Seahawks Philadelphia Eagles -½ Competitor: San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons +2 Competitor: New Orleans Saints The only game(s) im slightly worried about are the Bears (who I think is the best team in football right now) and the Giants ... but other than that, I like this spread 783392[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 I see you took Indy out but left Chicago in. I think the Bears are going to cause you lots of heartburn this weekend. Here's the thing... you didn't really accomplish much by teasing the Bears to +2. The original spread was low enough that whoever won the game was probably going to cover the spread anyway, and +2 doesn't change that at all. That's really the case for most NFL games...whichever team wins will cover. In the first two weeks of the NFL season, the team that got the W also covered the spread 28 out of 32 games. That means all you had to do to be 28-4 against the spread was pick the right team to win in each game. That percentage is pretty much right in line with previous seasons as well. Basically, I'm saying I hope you're right that the Bears will win, but if you're wrong, the tease won't help you out. In general, for teasers, I think it's better to take a big number and make it even bigger rather than taking a low number and keeping it low, especially when you're betting against a good team playing at home. 783455[/snapback] Yeah, that's what I was getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offside Number 76 Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 For anyone interested, I settled on the below teaser parlay. I put in $42.10 for a chance to win $421.00 Chicago Bears +2 Competitor: Minnesota Vikings Buffalo Bills Pick Competitor: New York Jets Baltimore Ravens -1 Competitor: Cleveland Browns Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Over 27½ New York Giants +9½ Competitor: Seattle Seahawks Philadelphia Eagles -½ Competitor: San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons +2 Competitor: New Orleans Saints The only game(s) im slightly worried about are the Bears (who I think is the best team in football right now) and the Giants ... but other than that, I like this spread 783392[/snapback] You're not worried about the over in the Old Browns-New Browns game? That could end 20-6, easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 I see you took Indy out but left Chicago in. I think the Bears are going to cause you lots of heartburn this weekend. Here's the thing... you didn't really accomplish much by teasing the Bears to +2. The original spread was low enough that whoever won the game was probably going to cover the spread anyway, and +2 doesn't change that at all. That's really the case for most NFL games...whichever team wins will cover. In the first two weeks of the NFL season, the team that got the W also covered the spread 28 out of 32 games. That means all you had to do to be 28-4 against the spread was pick the right team to win in each game. That percentage is pretty much right in line with previous seasons as well. Basically, I'm saying I hope you're right that the Bears will win, but if you're wrong, the tease won't help you out. In general, for teasers, I think it's better to take a big number and make it even bigger rather than taking a low number and keeping it low, especially when you're betting against a good team playing at home. 783455[/snapback] Yeah that definately makes sense and is food for thought for next week. The only reason we teased these games is because we wanted the Bills to be a straight pick (not -6) and we wanted it to be over 27 in the Ravens game instead of over 33-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 You're not worried about the over in the Old Browns-New Browns game? That could end 20-6, easily. 783474[/snapback] Not really ... I kinda see it ending more like 21-10 with the Browns scoring some wacky TD or something. I dont think the Browns can stop the Ravens offense and defense from combining to score for less than 21 ... so as long as the Browns can just get a TD I will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 May I ask why you think the 0-2 Browns will beat the 2-0 Ravens who have outscored opponents 55-6 and defense has let up less than 155 yards to the opponents offense (on average), and has yet to give up a TD? 783416[/snapback] Sure! 1. Teams that come off back to back dominant performances historically do not lay the lumber in game 3. The league is too good. This is why I'd be wary taking Chicago as well. 2. Divisional home dogs are always worth a look. In this case, I think that the Browns have a ton of value at +7. Obviously they're going to have a rabid crowd behind them based on the Ravens' history. 3. The Raiders are atrocious up front. They have the worst NFL offensive line that I have ever seen. Their quarterbacks turned over the ball six times. They were travelling cross country before a bye week against a team with its home opener. They used a backup rookie QB. In closing, 28-6 is about what I expected. Ravens didn't move the ball very well, especially if you discount the last drive. 4. I'm not convinced that the Ravens are that good. They're old, they're relying an awful lot on some guys that seems to get hurt every year and I don't think they have a lot of depth. They're a team that I expect to get worse as the season goes on. Their easy schedule so far is helping drive the perception that they're a top tier AFC team. 5. Most importantly, 94% of the public's wagers so far has been on the Ravens, yet the line has moved a half point. 94% would typically move a line 3-4 points if it were 94% of the total money wagered. That tells me that there are some heavy hitters in with the 6%. Anytime the public is all over a game and the line doesn't move, the other side is where my money goes. Obviously anything can happen, and Cleveland is a very flawed team, but games like this are why bookies don't take public transportation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daquixers_is_back Posted September 24, 2006 Author Share Posted September 24, 2006 Sure! 1. Teams that come off back to back dominant performances historically do not lay the lumber in game 3. The league is too good. This is why I'd be wary taking Chicago as well. 2. Divisional home dogs are always worth a look. In this case, I think that the Browns have a ton of value at +7. Obviously they're going to have a rabid crowd behind them based on the Ravens' history. 3. The Raiders are atrocious up front. They have the worst NFL offensive line that I have ever seen. Their quarterbacks turned over the ball six times. They were travelling cross country before a bye week against a team with its home opener. They used a backup rookie QB. In closing, 28-6 is about what I expected. Ravens didn't move the ball very well, especially if you discount the last drive. 4. I'm not convinced that the Ravens are that good. They're old, they're relying an awful lot on some guys that seems to get hurt every year and I don't think they have a lot of depth. They're a team that I expect to get worse as the season goes on. Their easy schedule so far is helping drive the perception that they're a top tier AFC team. 5. Most importantly, 94% of the public's wagers so far has been on the Ravens, yet the line has moved a half point. 94% would typically move a line 3-4 points if it were 94% of the total money wagered. That tells me that there are some heavy hitters in with the 6%. Anytime the public is all over a game and the line doesn't move, the other side is where my money goes. Obviously anything can happen, and Cleveland is a very flawed team, but games like this are why bookies don't take public transportation. 783723[/snapback] Well ill tell you what. We will re-visit this thread after the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted September 24, 2006 Share Posted September 24, 2006 For anyone interested, I settled on the below teaser parlay. I put in $42.10 for a chance to win $421.00 Chicago Bears +2 Competitor: Minnesota Vikings Buffalo Bills Pick Competitor: New York Jets Baltimore Ravens -1 Competitor: Cleveland Browns Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Over 27½ New York Giants +9½ Competitor: Seattle Seahawks Philadelphia Eagles -½ Competitor: San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons +2 Competitor: New Orleans Saints The only game(s) im slightly worried about are the Bears (who I think is the best team in football right now) and the Giants ... but other than that, I like this spread 783392[/snapback] You should have just thrown your $$ into the fireplace for a faster result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts