What was TD's best move for the Bills?

[Pyrite Gal]

I'm not so quick to give him a pass on 2003.  Granted he looked good in 2004;  IMO he was MIA in 2005.  So are you saying that a first round pick - getting you five years of service for five years of salary - is good if you get out of it 3 good years, one poor year, and an injured reserve year?  For an impact position,  that sounds like a break-even at best to me.

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I think you ask a key question has to how much worth/value should one get out a 1st round (or any acquisition balancing the benefit received against the cost spent(.

 

 

I think looking at a first round pick is a good way to go since though the reality of all this is too variable due to injuries, off field behavior and a variety of factors difficult to predict regarding pre=evaluation of a player o make one fast rule which is right in all cases. Many of the usual variables like contract size are set by draft slots so a good run can be made at this question.

 

In general I do not think a 1st round pick MUST produse at a performance level at a particular position to be the right choice to make in the 1st round.

 

In general, you want a first round choice to be an immediate starter who contributes a grpwing amount to the teams over the year as he becomes a vet. If you drafted this player in the first 5 (maybe 10, but draft quality varies from year to year which is one reason you cannot rationally set a hard and fast rule for all 1st rpuncd choices). You want to see this player mopping up Pro Bowl acknowledgments and eventually even be a real candidate for the HOF.

 

This may be hoping for (or expecting) too much, but by measures much lighter than this one it is clear folks like #4 pick MW and #3 pick Harrington were busts in this draft. Even other alternative at T McKinnie while not a a bust (yet) because he is still with the team which drafted him really also is a big disappointment with the holdout which wasted his rookie year, his inability to hold his blocks long enough for the scampering Culpepper (though the good decision making and ability to make the quick release when need that vet Jphnson bring has helped MvKinnie's game.

 

However, it looks like it is only a matter of time until this week convicted of a midemeanor for the Vikes party boat (my guess is he walks away without jail time and thus dodges the bullet on this one), drunking driving charged when he wrecked his car and failed a breathylyzer. and WM's favorite party animal and leader, before his off-field antics affect his play on the field as they did during his holdout.

 

The bottomline is that in retrspect with 20/20 vision the Bills should have traded down and gotten Levi Jones but this is all retrospect that few if anyone foresaw and even if they did maybe TD tired to trade down but there were no takers.

 

Not only is each individual draft a crapshoot even among the first 10 chosen talents, but actuallly, if I am a team I believe is a player away from an SB and lets say that player is nickel back but my weakness is pass coverage behind my two stud CBs, if there is a run on DBs and the bwar two CBas left are a nickel viewed as a good 2nd round choice and a player viewed as a 3rd round takent, then I think this one player away team should use their later 1st rounder for this nickwl who will not start and potentially even trade up to get him if I fear someone else is gonna take him.

 

I think it is clear that even a consensus about his draft value as a player is a very different thing for what I want/need to build my team. Mel Kiper be darned if he judges this a reach (he and other ESPN gurus are actually correct if what concerns you most is draft value rather than team building) but O assess for what I hope are good reasons to get the player to help me get to and win the SB.

 

This situation is clearer looking at a quality team that is one player away. However, I think it is also true for bad teams who look for particular value for team building that do not factor into the pre-draft value equation (or post draft equation if your goal is to be contrversial to attract eyeballs so your boss can sale commericials).

 

I think for example the 06 Bills draft was pretty clearly a complete failure in terms of draft value (they reached for and even traded up to get their first two picks whixh in the ESPN driven draft world outweighs easily seond day potential hits and even the 2nd round as we Bills fams get too drunk after round 1 and our sporses eyes glaze over anyway). However, the jury will be out for final judgments (though reasonable guesstimates can be made pretty quickly) for three yeats about how this draft really turned out).

 

Overall, there is some potentital (and even good potential that Whitner was a great choice at #8 and some possibility that McCargo may be a real contributor to the rotation immediately and if he is developed correctly, the Jauron scheme works and the funny shaped ball bounces well for us hw MAT be a quality starter for us this year. The draft value sucks but this may be a very good draft for us.

 

Even more strangely, I Bledsoe was a great move in terms of not only what he provided for this team off the field in his first year, but more importantly I think it would be more productive than he turned out to be as part of the Bills in 2002.

 

However, he sucked so bad on the field in 2003 I think that TD should have cut him rather than extending him. The real irony here is that even a bad Bledsoe was so much better than a learning JP once he did the idiot move of resigning him he should not have added insult to injury by then cutting him.

 

I feel very secure in saying that even if TD had been smart enough to cut Bledsoe after 2 years he arguably would have been a wash even if he did not produced for us for 3 years, 5 years, or a career (if even the Bruce standard is too low for you because he failed to lead us to an SB win).

 

The need we had to replace the hole we had having trade our 2003 1st for Bledsoe clearly played a role in TD taking the risk of doing the unexpected move of transition tagging PP. Even if one wants to try to sale the concept that TD was such a bold goshead he would have tagged PP anyway and we would have had two firsts. However, even someone who chooses to be foolish enough to believe this would have to admit that our need for a first at least made TD demand a first from AT and not settle for a second which still would have brought TD a bunch of praise for turning nothing into something.

 

Merely getting two years and a wash out of trading away a first rounder for Bledsoe was worth by my judgment and the role this gap played in inspiring us to get a new first for a UFA makes this a no brainer as we essentially used a future first rounderas collateral to borrow Bledsoe for two years. Unfortunately TD had no brain and in the third year bought high and sold low.

 

The bottomline (in a Cliffnotes kind of way) is that there are so many variables in the reality of player performance and so much variance from year to year in the quality of a draft and in terms of team needs (I think BAP is usally the right thing to do in this crapshoot, but sometimes if you are a player away from an SB or so bad you have an essential hole to fiil a BAP approach would be a dumb thing to do).

 

There is not set amount of performance or time that is mandated for a player chosen in the first round. The GUIDELINE us a first round pick should be an immediate starter or at least an immediate contributor. However the reality is this guideline is made to be broken for good reasons (the test to discuss) and is not a rule at all.

[Orton's Arm]

I think for example the 06 Bills draft was pretty clearly a complete failure in terms of draft value (they reached for and even traded up to get their first two picks whixh in the ESPN driven draft world outweighs easily seond day potential hits and even the 2nd round as we Bills fams get too drunk after round 1 and our sporses eyes glaze over anyway).

I feel you've misrepresented those who contend the Bills didn't get good value on draft day. You seem to portray such people as too drunk or glazed over to truly understand the potential value of second-day picks. Yet it was precisely to acquire additional picks that many feel Levy should have taken Whitner at some spot lower than #8.

[Pyrite Gal]

I feel you've misrepresented those who contend the Bills didn't get good value on draft day.  You seem to portray such people as too drunk or glazed over to truly understand the potential value of second-day picks.  Yet it was precisely to acquire additional picks that many feel Levy should have taken Whitner at some spot lower than #8.

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It certainly is not dumb to question the wisdom of the Bills picks.

 

In fact, I myself think that from what I hear of Whitner, he shows great potential and even a strong likelihood of being a good enough player to merit being a first day starter for the Bills. Given the decision by the Bills to cut Milloy

 

(again it seems to be a smart decision given: A. his history of recent injury on the backside of his career that likely means his peak effectiveness will be diminished and we will have to start Bowen or Wire anyway, B. his cap hit and C. that we are switching from a zone blitz which suited his talents to a Cover 2 which does not, I do not see how you keep him)

 

we had to get one of the two SSs in this draft rated to have a good chance of starting the first day. Given that Huff surprisingly to most went at #7 and rhat #9 Detroit had a credible interest in Huff but now only 1 likely starter at SS was in this draft and that the trade down offers (if they were true) would provide teams with potential shot to trade up above the Bills if they traded down.

 

However, I really do not expect McCargp to be an immediate starter for us, even though I am hopeful he will at least be an immediate contributor to the rotation. However, his selection insted of going for a credible possible or even likely run stopper to play the same role in the Jauron Cover 2 Big Ted played for the Bears.

 

It creates a big question what new version of a working Cover 2 which can stop the run as well as have the DTs hit the gaps and pressure the QB will work with the top 4 DTs on the depth chart maxing out at 304 lbs. and none having a rep as a top run stopper.

 

I do not consider it stupid or glazed over to debate whether Whitner will in fact be an immediate starter. Even though I think almost all think he will be they question whether he would have been there at his lowrer consensus alleged draft value. The consnsus has been way wrong before.

 

I also do not think it is stupid to question whether the Bills were smart to put themselves in a position where they were forced to trade up for what many folks felt was the third best DT in the draft since no other DT even merited a 2nd round pick and even more interestin what the implication of the Bills DT picks and current roster have for us to stop the run.

 

However, what I do think is glazed over or stupid is to whine repetively about this situation without stating any real alternatives or even doing s half-butted analysis of the situation. The fan whining on draft day is understandable though even this get real old real fast without either seeing that there is question here and it is more than Alzheimers from Marv. There is a plan, but the plan may not work and its simply mindless abbreviation or just dumb to not address this issue. It speaks highly of TSW that most folks have gotten over their initial shock and even if they are not true believers they either are simply hoping for the best or stating reasons why they think it will not work.

 

Though the fan issue is understandable (I was a little glazed myself as draft day wore on (the general media action has been so vacuous and inane generally as to deserve total disdain. Particularly the ESPN folks like Salisbury and Shein have repeatedly demonstrated they neither take nor even have the time in broadcast to make even a semi-intelligent argument or have more than a stupid take on this situation.

 

I think questioning moves is why the NFL is interesting. I think asking the same questions without any detailed discussion is stupid. I myself am repetitive but at least I go into exccruiting long detail about my repetition.

 

Ignoring my posts as their too long is NOT stupid. Ignoring ESPN for taking the same baseless take is NOT stupid. Repeating the same baseless take or buying it with some analysis is STEPIB IMHO.

[Orton's Arm]

I myself am repetitive but at least I go into exccruiting long detail about my repetition.

 

I think it's unrealistic to expect Levy to fill all of this team's holes in just one year. The fact the team seems to still be weak at run-stopping DT is too bad, but I don't see what else Levy could have done. In any case, we took that run stopper of a DT in the fifth, who at least gives us a fighting chance of solving the problem.

 

The real questions I have about this team involve the offense. Is Craig Nall capable of a Kurt Warner-like emergence from NFL Europe? Are those late round picks and free agents capable of forming a solid offensive line? What on earth will happen at tight end? Can Lee Evans be the go-to guy? Can anyone else on the roster be as good a #2 as Evans was the last two years? What type of play will we see from McGahee and the other RBs?

[apuszczalowski]

 

 

I think it's unrealistic to expect Levy to fill all of this team's holes in just one year.  The fact the team seems to still be weak at run-stopping DT is too bad, but I don't see what else Levy could have done.  In any case, we took that run stopper of a DT in the fifth, who at least gives us a fighting chance of solving the problem. 

 

The real questions I have about this team involve the offense.  Is Craig Nall capable of a Kurt Warner-like emergence from NFL Europe?  Are those late round picks and free agents capable of forming a solid offensive line?  What on earth will happen at tight end?  Can Lee Evans be the go-to guy?  Can anyone else on the roster be as good a #2 as Evans was the last two years?  What type of play will we see from McGahee and the other RBs?

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Good points, I find when you don't mention Holcomb in your posts you actually make some sense.

 

This team wasn't going to go from 5-11 to SB champs in one season and its not reasonable to expect that. Although you can't say it absolutely can't happen. The offseason is only giving fans and the media more questions to ask that the answers won't start to become clear until training camp and the start of the season. Until then Buffalo has the same chance of going 0-16 as the do going 16-0

 

By the way, a friend of mine who works on a golf course in Niagara Falls who also believes Holcomb should be the starter played a round of golf with Dick Jauron last week when they were both on the course playing a by themselves. Dick asked if he wanted to join him so my buddy said sure and they played a game together. He told him he thought Holcomb should start and all Jauron told him was they will have to see. Apparently Jauron is a pretty good golfer to.

 

On another note, can the board hire someone to paraphrase all of Pyrite Gal's posts so that people can read them without having to take a break halfway through. LOL, are you trying to publish a novel or get a point across, I need to take a nap half way through some of those posts since they are so long, j/k

[RuntheDamnBall]

I guess signing a FA is not as much of a deft maneuver as the Peerless trade (which was a definite coup, don't get me wrong). But put me in the TKO camp. He is a guy who, on a winning team, would rank with the all-time great Bills if he can stick around for a good while. He is already one of my favorite players ever -- to watch, and just in general (and I actually kept a good eye on him in Cincy -- have always liked him).

 

In order for us to really believe, we have to really believe that players like that want to come here. I am really, really glad TD made that move, even though many of his others didn't have the intended result.

[pkwwjd]

I was torn between tagging/trading Peerless and drafting McGee, but I'd have to say McGee right now. So far, he's earned his worth as a KR and is getting better as a CB.

 

The #1 pick we got for Peerless (McGahee) is right up there, but I'm not so sure of Willis as a mature player just yet. I'll give him 2006 to really judge him, but I have a feeling he won't be in Buffalo once his contract is up.

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I think you have to combine a few of those choices into one choice.

 

TD tagged Peerless and traded him to ATL for a #1, which freed up cap space to sign TKO, and gave us a draft pick to take McGahee. Sorry, but this is the biggest move for the Bills since the Cornelius Bennett trade in the late 80s. We may not have had the total payoff from this yet, but it has been a sweet move anyway ... and now we have PP back.