AFC Team Rankings A Quarter Of The Season In

[corta765]

We’re at the 4-week mark of the season, which means we’re already a quarter of the way in (noooo).
I did this last year—ranking the AFC every 4-5 weeks or so—but I always find early-season rankings tricky. The first four weeks can be totally misleading. So, this is a blend of where teams are now and where I think they’re headed long-term.

 

As always—agree, disagree, tell me I have no brain. 😂 Have fun with it:

 

See You at the AFC Title Game

Buffalo – The defense is a work in progress, but with some key injured and suspended players returning, there’s real potential for growth. Overall, they’re a more dangerous team than last year.

 

Kansas City – Immovable object. Rumors of their demise were greatly exaggerated. That said, they’re more flawed than in previous years, and the division looks tougher. Regardless, until someone knocks them out before the AFC Title Game, pencil them in.

 

Contenders

LA Chargers – Well-coached and always tough. The offense looks more dangerous with Hampton, and Herbert is playing really well. The question isn’t whether they’ll make the playoffs, but whether they can finally win the division—or at least a playoff game.

 

Are the Ravens Still Contenders...?

The preseason darlings of NFL media are now 1-3. They're banged up, lost two close games they couldn’t close, got blown out by another AFC alpha, and now Lamar is hurt.

 

That said, their schedule lightens up. If Lamar plays, they can stack some wins, and the defense will get some guys back. Realistically, though, this version of the Ravens looks like a shell of the teams from the last two years. Even if they win the division, they’ll likely be on the road for two playoff games—probably in Buffalo and/or KC—where they’ve historically struggled. If the offense gets going, they’re still dangerous. I can’t take them fully out of the contender tier, but things aren’t looking great either.

 

Frisky Newcomers

Denver – Nix is showing some sophomore-slump signs and may be more of a serviceable starter than a star. Still, there’s talent all over the roster, and they’re one missed FG penalty from being 3-1. If Nix can step up against better competition, they’ll be a tough out.

 

Jacksonville – Coen has the offense clicking, but more importantly, the defense has been stout. Their next three games are against KC, SEA, and LAR (in London), so they’ll have their chances to prove they’re legit. Shades of 2017 all over this team.

 

The Steelers Probably Win This Division, But What's Their Ceiling?

Pittsburgh – With the rest of the division dealing with injuries and inconsistency, the Steelers are sitting at 3-1 and in control. The offense is lukewarm with occasional spice, and the defense isn’t the elite unit it used to be.

 

How do they beat KC/BUF/LAC unless those teams self-destruct?

 

Wildcarding

New England – Maye has been very solid, which keeps the Patriots in the Wild Card conversation. The defense is inconsistent—stout at times, sieve-like at others. After Sunday Night Football in Buffalo, the schedule softens. They feel like a team that’ll be a sneaky playoff threat by season’s end.

 

Indianapolis – They have the second-best point differential in the AFC and a good win over Denver. 10 wins probably gets a Wild Card spot this year—and in the AFC South, 10 might win the division. Jones has played really well, but can he sustain it for 17 games?

 

"I Self-Ranked Myself a Top 5 QB After My Rookie Year... and It's Been a Tire Fire Since"

Houston – I bought into the Stroud hype last year, but between the offensive line issues and consistent, game-changing mistakes, the regression is real. The defense will keep them in games, and the AFC South gives them some margin for error, but this feels like a 7–10 team. By season’s end, they may be asking hard questions at QB.

 

We’re Wrecking Our Second Franchise QB Because We’re Cheap & Have No Team-Building Vision

Cincinnati – Burrow going out like this is a huge bummer… but not shocking. He’s been the most-hit starting QB since Andrew Luck. This team should’ve learned from KC that sometimes trading the flashy WR (Higgins) to build a stronger overall roster is the right move.

The 2 wins they banked don’t feel like enough for a late push, even if Burrow returns in December. For Bills fans: with Burrow likely missing their game, Buffalo may not face him again until at least 2027.

 

GeNOOOOOOO... 7–10 Raiders Again

Raiders – Geno looked like one of the better QBs in terms of accuracy and turnover avoidance in Seattle. Now, he has 7 turnovers in 4 games and two sub-200-yard performances.

 

There was some preseason hype about them being a sneaky Wild Card team, but there’s just not enough talent here. In a weaker division, maybe—but in the AFC West, it’s hard to see a turnaround coming.

 

Bad Teams Without Enough Talent – Already Playing for 2026

Miami – Whatever best-case scenario existed disappeared by halftime of Week 1. The roster lacks talent, and with Hill now out for the year, the offense is even more of a shell. They might claw their way to 3–4 in the coming weeks, but the crash is coming. McDaniel is starting to look like a one-trick pony with no backup plan.

 

Cleveland – There’s a universe where they never traded for Watson, kept Baker, and make the playoffs yearly with a great defense. That’s not this one. The D is being wasted because the offense has no reliable QB, lacks weapons, and can’t protect. Why Myles Garrett re-signed here knowing this roster was already sinking is beyond me.

 

New York Jets – Life comes at you fast. One week you’re almost upsetting the Steelers, and the next you're 0–4 with culture questions. Everyone knew the rebuild would be ugly, but Glenn needs to keep things focused or it could spiral fast. What once looked like a decent foundation now feels barren.

 

Tennessee – 2025 was never the goal here. Ward is taking his rookie lumps. The bigger issue? The effort level isn’t there, and that reflects on the head coach. They need talent, yes—but they also need their recent draft picks to show something. The upcoming schedule (vs ARI, LV, NE, IND) gives them a chance to prove they’re growing.

 

Edited Tuesday at 07:58 PM by corta765

[ticketssince61]

Great post!