Albany,n.y. Posted April 20, 2005 Share Posted April 20, 2005 Draft 2005! (As of 4/19/05) Welcome to draft 2005! Bad news for NFL teams-this draft is reminiscent of 2000, when many first rounders bombed, entire teams (like the Bills) got virtually nothing out of the draft , and the best player turned out to be a quarterback taken by New England in the 6th round. This draft is more of a crapshoot than usual and many players will be overdrafted due to the lack of overall talent. Rumors have been flying all week, and it’s only going to get hotter as we get closer to Saturday's’ draft. San Francisco is sitting at #1, where it looks like they’ll pick Alex Smith. This might be settled as you read this since they are trying to work out contract details. If they can’t get it done, they might draft Aaron Rodgers instead, if they don’t trade the pick. Alex Smith is a better prospect, so they’d be wise to show him the money. Miami, sitting 2nd will be in great shape if Smith is still available. They could either take the best QB in the draft or trade the pick to Tampa Bay. Miami still might be able to work a deal if Smith is gone, because the Vikings want Braylon Edwards and might try to ace out the Browns. There might be a lot of trading throughout the draft, making a mockery of anyone’s mock draft. Finally, for Bills fans there are the Travis Henry trade rumors. Travis Henry will be traded by Sunday, the only question is, is it Philadelphia, Tampa Bay or Arizona? Now, on to the report. I’ve added a feature this year: The Busted Board. Now I know you’re supposed to be innocent until proven guilty, but with all the favors athletes get, you just don’t get that many convictions. The Busted Board lists the player and the charge. Whether there was a conviction, dismissal, or acquittal doesn’t matter-judge for yourself as I’ve left the final resolution off. It might be unfair, but if the guy has to answer the question “Have you ever been arrested?”, you can find him on The Busted Board. Two things to keep in mind: 1) Don’t take the prediction mock draft seriously, there is no way that there can be any accuracy, especially this year. I consider the as I would select draft much more important; 2) The key to success of this report is measured in the success or failure of the players on the draft & bust boards. Keep it and judge it in 3 years and beyond, although some of my finds will be noticeable by mid-season. Quarterback Juniors Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers will be the top two QBs taken, one probably at the top of the entire draft. Both have gotten raves from some and left others skeptical. I endorse Alex Smith due to his combination of smarts, size and athleticism, but I can’t endorse Rodgers who I feel will go higher than he should and is not worth the risk. In 2002, Joey Harrington went #3 overall because he was the 2nd rated QB that year. Well, it’s obvious that 3rd overall was way too high for Harrington. Rodgers will be overdrafted, regardless if it’s at pick 1 or pick 5. After these two in most rankings are Charlie Frye and Jason Campbell. I favor Campbell slightly, but I don’t know if either will be great or a bust. Campbell led Auburn and had a good season, but Campbell was the quarterback of the team with the best running game in the nation. It wouldn’t surprise me if he had success, but he improved his draft status tremendously in his senior year. This is a standard red flag of mine that I put under the heading of “One Year Wonder”. These types of QBs seldom have NFL success. Frye won the Senior Bowl MVP award, but I didn’t see enough to be overly impressed by his effort. It pales in comparison to what last year’s Senior Bowl MVP Philip Rivers did in that game. After Alex Smith, it’s pretty much a guessing game. I’ll take a shot with Andrew Walter. Walter’s draft stock has fallen due to a late season shoulder separation, which required surgery, and concerns about his mobility. Some have compared him to Drew Bledsoe, and in some ways they are right. But, if you could get a Bledsoe career out of a 2nd or 3rd pick in this year’s draft, you’d take it. I expect Stefan LeFors to be entrenched as a team’s starting QB down the line. He’s got a ton of talent, but some will think he’s too small. As a result, he’s likely to be a 3rd rounder or even a second day steal. A quarterback who may be one of the most physically talented in the entire draft is Adrian McPherson. The problem is that he got kicked out of Florida State after he stole $3,500. Since he also allegedly was gambling on sports, the Art Schlichter red flag goes up. Since that time, McPherson appears to have cleaned up his act and dominated in ArenaBall last season. He may end up being the steal of the draft if he lasts until the 3rd round. If he stays out of trouble, he could be a star. He seems to be very sincere that his problems were mistakes that he’ll never repeat. After the 1st two rounds, it’s certainly worth it to give him a second chance. I’m sure his contract will be structured to protect his team. Ben Dougherty, Lang Campbell and Chad Friehauf are good developmental prospect who could make it as starters down the line. They may have to start on a practice squad and/or in NFL Europe while they learns the NFL game. Friehauf also needs to gain 20-30 pounds, but probably has the best long range potential, although he will most likely get cut in preseason and have to convince a team to add him to its practice squad. Jason White won the Heisman Trophy in 2003 and will be underrated in this draft due to his prior injuries and a lack of mobility. He could last a long time as a backup and possibly start in the right situation. Matt Cassel has been buried on the depth chart at USC and may be better than a lot of college team’s starters. He’s worth bringing into camp and finding out. Timmy Chang ran up some good stats in Hawaii’s run and shoot offense, but he’s not an NFL talent nor does he have the work ethic to overachieve in order to make it. He’ll be a wasted pick if he’s drafted. Chris Rix is a head case who has had some minor traffic violations, slept through exams and isn’t always on time for meetings. I’d love to see him in Giants’ camp and see how long Tom Coughlin would put up with his antics. He’s undraftable, but someone will probably take him. Dan Orlovsky, Brock Berlin and Dustin Long just don’t have enough talent to last very long in the NFL. Offensive Lineman Tackle The top rated tackles are too risky to take with confidence. Alex Barron will be the 1st OT taken, but he’s inconsistent and a risk in the 1st round. The same goes for Kalif Barnes, who needs to gain a few pounds. Adam Terry is worth a shot in the 2nd round. He’s big , but he needs to play with more aggression. If the Bills take him, look for McNally to coach him up to be a good LT. Fans of Anthony Munoz will want their team to draft his son. Folks, this is not horse racing, you don’t breed offensive tackles. To put it bluntly, this is not your father’s Munoz. Mike Munoz is not likely to be a star, or even a long term starter in the NFL. Jamaal Brown is a decent right tackle who will be ok as long as the team that takes him doesn’t try to move him to LT. Local U of Albany tackle Geir Guidmundsen probably won’t get drafted but has drawn interest from both the Bills and the Giants. Guard The top guard in this draft is Michigan’s David Bass. Some people want to draft him to play center, but he’s better at guard and that’s where he should play in the NFL. He’ll be a late 1st or early second round selection. Marcus Johnson could play guard or end up at tackle in the NFL. He played guard most of his college career, but started 3 games at RT this past season. Chris Kemoeatu isn’t very bright. He got himself booted from two straight games for kicking opposing players. He originally scored a 7 on the Wonderlic and got all the way up to a 14 at the combine. I can’t endorse a player who is out of control and stupid. Elton Brown and Sam Wilder made both The Bust Board and The Busted Board. Center The best center in the draft is undraftable. That’s because Richie Incognito is too wild to rely on. He was kicked off Nebraska’s team after numerous discipline problems and a fight at a party that got him arrested. He then went to Oregon but wouldn’t comply with his anger management course and rules and was booted before ever getting on the field. In addition, he’s injured his knee twice while working out for NFL scouts. A lot of draftniks like Chris Spencer , who has nice potential, but he still needs to improve his game and is not ready to start and play at a high level as a rookie. Another year in school would have helped him refine his game. Top center on my draft board is Jason Brown, who appears to finally be winning his weight battle. Ben Wilkerson underwent knee surgery and might be a day two steal. Running Back Halfback I can’t see spending a top 10 pick on any of the RBs. Auburn’s duo of Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown will go very high, with former backup Brown possibly going at 2 overall. That’s way too high for a guy who wasn’t even a full time starter. The other top running back in the big 3 is Cedrick Benson who better grow up and stop getting arrested since he won’t have his college to protect him from prosecution once he turns pro. All three will be drafted higher than they should because teams drafting early need RBs and this is a weak draft overall. They’ll still demand to get paid where they’re drafted and that’s too much for any of these three. I’m going to take a different tactic. Two players who could have been right up there with the big three have fallen far enough that they could be draft day bargains. Frank Gore, who was once ahead of Willis McGahee on Miami’s depth chart, may be available on day two after two knee operations. By the time he enters the NFL he’ll have had plenty of recovery time and may be the steal of the draft. Don’t get too worried about his 6 Wonderlic, he has a learning disability, but overcame it to perform ok in the classroom. A lot of people will disagree with me on Maurice Clarett, but he performed at too high a level to ignore at Ohio State. I’ll take on field production over workout numbers any day. I’d also take a shot on Hec Crighton winner (Canadian Heisman) Jesse Lumsden as a free agent pickup. He showed good straight ahead running ability in the East West Shrine game and could be a good backup in the NFL. Fullback There aren’t many draftable fullbacks. None will be taken on day 1. Check the Draft Board to see the three I’d draft late. The Bust Board includes Zach Tuiasopopo who really knows how to use his head. He got drunk and started breaking car windows with his head and fists. That’s what the malicious mischief arrest is all about. Wide Receiver This is one of the stronger positions in the draft led by two top 10 selections. Leading the way is Braylon Edwards who aside from a few too many drops, has it all to be a perennial Pro-Bowler. The other top WR is Mike Williams the former USC star who ran into the hard headed NCAA policies when he could not get reinstated after applying for last year’s draft and then having a ruling go against him which banned him from the 2004 draft. He’s still a top prospect, although he doesn’t test at a great speed. The only question on Williams is whether he will gain too much weight later in his career and have to switch to tight end. Five or more receivers will go in the 1st round. The one I like the best of the rest is Mark Clayton, who is probably this year’s version of Lee Evans. One of the stranger stories of this draft is the meteoric rise of former Arkansas QB Matt Jones. The guy had a good Senior Bowl week and combine and suddenly he’s the next Jerry Rice. Rumors are he may go in the 1st round. This is insanity! Every converted QB who has succeeded went a lot lower because there’s always a question when it comes to such a drastic position change. The scouts don’t even know if he’s converting to receiver or TE, even though if he doesn’t make it at receiver he’s already against a TE switch. From the bottom of the 2nd round on he might be worth a gamble if you feel like the draft is so weak that any subsequent pick is a gamble, but round 1? GMs who consistently make picks like this end up in the stands with the rest of us ticket buyers. Airese Currie will be a late 1st day or early second day selection who has the ability, but needs to improve his hands and hold onto more passes. Chris Henry is a highly regarded receiver who is too immature to be relied upon. He is too undisciplined on the field. Jerome Mathis is the darling of the small college sleeper crowd. While he has some ability, he’s yet to prove he can stay out of trouble off the field. He’s had two assault raps and even got thrown in jail for a week during the 2003 season. Tight End Once you get past Heath Miller there isn’t much talent at the TE position. Since some of the more successful TEs have come in mid to late rounds, maybe the lack of pre draft hype isn’t so bad. Miller is the complete package for the position, but even he’s seen his draft stock fall slightly due to a sports hernia injury. Alex Smith of Stanford (they call him “The Other Alex Smith) is rated as the 2nd best TE, but he still needs to refine his game with better blocking being his top priority. The rest of the TE group is a guessing game as to who you can find late and develop and who is a waste of a draft choice. I Bust Boarded Kevin Everett because he’s going to be overdrafted based on physical potential rather than what he’s done on the field. Defensive Lineman Defensive End The biggest problem with this group is that it resembles a hospital ward. Some of the highest rated players are either injury prone or recovering from an injury. Erasmus James is talented, but he seems to get hurt every season. Chris Canty blew out his knee early in the 2004 season had knee surgery and then got a detached retina in a bar fight this past January. Justin Tuck is another DE whose season ended with a knee injury. Dan Cody sat out the 2001 season with clinical depression. He’s been ok since, but he’s never had to face the pressure of life in the NFL. One of the top rated DEs is Marcus Spears. He’s been inconsistent in college and could be great or mediocre in the NFL. Many top DEs in this draft are “tweeners”, somewhere between a LB and a DE. Leading the way is Shawne Merriman, who should be a good NFL player no matter where he lines up. David Pollack is another tweener who should go early in the draft. I don’t rate him as highly as Merriman. Matt Roth is a little bigger than Pollack has a similar draft status. He’s one of these high motor, always hustling types. None of the players on the Bust Board figures to be a high pick. Defensive Tackle This is another group that I’ve stayed away from the top prospects when putting together my Draft Board. The most talented DT appears to be Travis Johnson. Even though he was acquitted of felony sexual assault in 2003, I still don’t want him on my team. Luis Castillo was the darling of the combine until we found out that his performance was steroid enhanced. He seems quite apologetic about the whole incident, but you can’t be very forgiving when you’re a GM that is making decisions that are worth millions of dollars. I’d pass on him, but his talent will get him drafted in the 1st 2 rounds. Another player who will go high and flunked a drug test at the combine is Anttaj Hawthorne. He tested positive for marijuana, which may explain his laid back attitude during some games. He needs more intensity to succeed in the NFL. Linebacker I like the Inside LB group better overall than the OLBs. OLB Derrick Johnson is the top rated pure LB, but there are mixed ratings across the league on him. Some people think he’s the second coming of LT. Others think he misses too many tackles and plays too undisciplined. I think he can fit well on a defense, should be the 1st linebacker taken , but is no LT. I like two sons of former NFL players. Bills fans shouldn’t go into a rage when they hear how good Barrett Ruud is, just because his father was a bust in 1975. He doesn’t have Bob Nelson’s son to hold out with. Mosi Tatupu’s son Lofa is all over the field hustling and making plays. He’s a solid pick in the 2nd round. Late round to free agent finds include Boomer Grigsby, a small college ILB with great production and Liam Ezekial, who plays with a mean streak. Unfortunately, Ezekial is too mean, having assaulted a teammate in the locker room after a game. I’ll take a shot at him if he goes undrafted, otherwise I wouldn’t use a pick on him. Two top rated LBs have as good a chance of being in the slammer as they do playing in the NFL 10 years from now. Odell Thurman has had numerous run ins with the law over fights fueled by alcohol. Channing Crowder has at least three separate arrests on his rap sheet. I wouldn’t spend a high pick on either one of these players. Defensive Back Cornerback This group, along with WR is where the strength of this draft is. Five or more CBs will be gone before the end of the 1st round. The top CB is Antrel Rolle, who has gotten into fight on and off the field. He once got suspended for throwing a punch at an opposing player while entering the field and was arrested in a separate incident in a car fight which resulted in resisting arrest charges. Pac Man Jones has been red flagged for character issues, but I couldn’t locate any specific incidences. He’s going to be the 1st or 2nd CB taken Saturday. He’s a little on the small side but has a ton of talent. The top CB to make my board was Carlos Rogers who has good size, but has some weaknesses that need improvement in the NFL. Marlin Jackson made both the Bust Board for his on field weaknesses and the Busted Board for his off field problems. Winner of this year’s Wonderlic booby prize goes to Auburn’s Ansel “Junior” Rosegreen. He actually answered 32 of the 50 questions but only got 2 correct. His 2 is among the lowest Wonderlics I’ve ever seen. He probably finds signing “Jr” easier than Ansel. Safety This is an interesting group, with widely different opinions among draftniks about the rankings. My top two rated safeties are SS Thomas Davis, who might end up at LB and Josh Bullocks, a FS. The reason I have a lot of late round safeties on my Draft Board is because this group should produce some real special teams demons. Among them are Jim Leonhard, who excells on defense as well as punt returns, Sean Considine, Matt Grootegard and a great punt blocker James King. Place kicker The top kicker in this draft and the best since Sebastian Janikowski was taken by the Raiders in the 1st round in 2000, is Ohio State’s Mike Nugent. Nugent will go either in the 2nd or 3rd round and will be around over a decade. For teams that miss out on Nugent, the search is on for a late round to free agent kicker. Tyler Jones has a strong leg and should be drafted. I’ve also unearthed two late round to free agent kickers that I can recommend. Chris Onorato is a proven cold weather and wind kicker, attributes that are a prerequisite for kicking in Ralph Wilson Stadium. The problem is, that unless the Jets take Nugent in round 2, an undrafted Onorato would almost certainly want to hang around Hofstra and try to make it on the Jets. That’s why if you want him he’s a must draft in the 7th round. The other possibility is McNeese St.’s John Marino. Imagine Bills’ faithful cheering for a guy named Marino. Punter There is also a standout punter in this year’s draft, Dustin Colquitt. He’s got a powerful leg and seldom gets blocked. He should be taken in the 3rd or 4th round. Cole Farden has a good leg and can kick off. How to read the Draft Board Players are listed by the value they present to the league first and then to the Bills only. A player chosen more than 1 round before the round range is considered a reach and does not represent good value until later in the draft. As the draft gets into day two there really isn’t much difference, so if a 7-FA goes in round 5, it’s really not a reach. The same can be said for a 6-7 player going in round 4. Any player who is on the Draft Board who is not selected during the draft has good free agent value. No player carrying a free agent rating should be taken before round 5. If a player is taken within 1 round of his range he is properly selected. For example a player with a 3-4 rating is neither a reach nor a bargain if he is selected in rounds 2,3,4, or 5. If he’s picked in round one he’s a reach, if he’s picked in round 6 or later he’s a steal. The Draft Board Overall league value 1st followed by value to Buffalo Bills in parentheses. The Bills do not have a 1st round pick (as of Tuesday 4/19/05). QB: Alex Smith 1 (-), Andrew Walter 1-2(-), Stefan LeFors 3-4(-), Adrian McPherson 3-4 (-), Chad Friehauf 7-FA (FA), Ben Dougherty 7-FA(FA), Jason White 7-FA(FA), Lang Campbell 7-FA (FA), Matt Cassel 7-FA (FA) OT: Adam Terry 1-2 (2), Michael Roos 3-4 (3), Adam Kieft 5-6 (5), Chris Colmer 5-6 (5), Frank Omiyale 5-6 (5), Ray Willis 5-6 (6), Todd Herremans 6-7 (6), Calvin Armstrong 7-FA (7),Geir Gudmundsen 7-FA (FA) G: David Bass 1-2 (2), Marcus Johnson 2-3 (2), Logan Mankins 2-3 (3), Dan Buenning 3-4 (3)Claude Terrell 3-4 (4), Dan Connolly 5-6 (5), C.J.Brooks 6-7 (6), Brian Kovolsky 7-FA (FA),Uriah Moenoa 7-FA (FA) C: Jason Brown 2-3 (3), Ben Wilkerson 3-4 (4), Eric Ghiaciuc 6-7 (6), Matt Katula LS 6-7 (6) Kyle Andrews LS 7-FA (FA), L.P. LaDouceur LS 7-FA (FA). RB: Ryan Moats 3-4 (4), Frank Gore 3-4 (4), Maurice Clarett 6-7 (6), Deandra Cobb (KR) 6-7 (6), Brandon Jacobs 6-7 (7), Jesse Lumsden 7-FA (FA), Seymour Shaw 7-FA (FA) FB: Will Matthews 5-6 (5), Madison Hedgecock 6-7 (6), Jon Goldsberry 6-7 (6) WR: Braylon Edwards 1 (-), Mike Williams 1 (-), Mark Clayton 1 (-), Mark Bradley 2-3 (2), Airese Currie 3-4 (4), Jamaica Rector 6-7 (6), Geoff McArthur 7-FA (FA), Dan Sheldon 7-FA (FA), Keron Henry 7-FA (FA) TE: Heath Miller 1 (1), Cody McCarty 5-6 (5), Bo Scaife 6-7 (6), Billy Bajema 7-FA (FA) DE: Shawne Merriman 1 (1), Justin Tuck 1-2 (2), Derreck Robinson 7-FA (7), Phillip Alexander 7-FA (FA) DT: Ronald Fields 3-4 (3), Keyonta Marshall 7-FA (FA), Andrew Hoffman 7-FA (FA) LB: Derrick Johnson 1(-), Barrett Ruud 1-2 (2), Lofa Tatupu 2-3 (3), Ryan Wallace 3-4 (4), Ryan Claridge 4-5 (5), Matt McCoy 4-5 (5), Lance Mitchell 5-6 (6), Russ Rabe 5-6 (6), Nigel Eldridge 6-7 (7), Derek Wake 6-7 (6), Roger Cooper 6-7 (6), Boomer Grigsby 6-7 (7), Wendell Hunter 7-FA (7), Liam Ezekial 7-FA (FA), James Kinney 7-FA (FA), Ronald Stanley 7-FA (FA) CB: Carlos Rogers 1-2 (1), Eric Green 1-2 (2), Corey Webster 2-3 (2), Darrent Williams 3-4 (3), Antonio Perkins 3-4 (4), Scott Starks 4-5 (4), Eric King 4-5 (5),Ronald Bartell 5-6 (5), Stanford Routt 5-6 (6), Kelvin Hayden 5-6 (6), Aric Williams 6-7 (7), Sidney Haugabrook 7-FA (FA), S: Thomas Davis 1-2 (2), Josh Bullocks 1-2 (2), Oshiomogho Alogwe 3-4 (3), Sean Considine 3-4 (3), James Sanders 5-6 (5), Jim Leonhard 5-6(6), Matt Grootegard 7-FA (7), Mitch Meeuwsen 7-FA (7), Jason Leach 7-FA (7), Ryan Guitierrez 7-FA (FA), Josh Dean 7-FA (FA), James King 7-FA (FA) K: Mike Nugent 1-2 (2), Tyler Jones 6-7 (7), Chris Onorato 7-FA (7), John Marino 7-FA (7) P: Dustin Colquitt 3-4 (-), Cole Farden 7-FA (-) The Bust Board QB: Dan Orlovsky, Chris Rix, Timmy Chang, Brock Berlin, Dustin Long OT: Jeremy Parquet C: Richie Incognito G: Chris Kemoeatu, Wlton Brown, Sam Wilder RB: Cedrick Benson, Kay Jay Harris, Verand Morency, T.J. McLendon FB: Zack Tuiasopopo, Brandon Joe WR: Chris Henry, Fred Gibson, Larry Brackins TE: Kevin Everett, Tony Curtis DE: Trent Cole, George Gauge, Mike Montgomery, David McMillan DT: Anttaj Hawthorne, Anthony Bryant LB: Odell Thurman, Channing Crowder, Michael Boley CB: Marlin Jackson, Alphonso Hodge S: Brodney Pool, Gerald Sensabaugh, Dante Nicholson There were no busts listed for Kickers and Punters The Busted Board (Arrested, not necessarily convicted) QB: Adrian McPherson-Theft & Gambling, Gino Guidugli-Assault, Stan Hill-Public Intoxication, Resisting Arrest OL: Richie Incognito-Assault, Geoff Hangartrner-DWI, Elton Brown-Assault & Battery, Sam Wilder-DUI, Darren DeLone Aggravated Assault & Battery RB: Cedrick Benson-Marijuana, Criminal Trespassing, Maurice Clarett-Falsification & Failure To Aid Law Enforcement, Verand Morency-Sexual Assault, Ray Hudson-Marijuana, Lydell Ross-Theft By Deception FB: Zack Tuiasopopo-Malicious Mischief, Brandon Joe-Open Container, Paul Jefferson- Open Container WR: Jerome Mathis –Assault, Isaac West-Grand Larceny, LeRon McCoy-Assault, Harassment DT: Travis Johnson –Felony Sexual Assault, Lynn McGruder-Marijuana & Distribution, Matt McChesney-Criminal Mischief, Underage Drinking LB: Tyson Smith-Domestic Assault, Marques Harris-Delinquency of a Minor, Matt Sinclair-Aggravated Battery, Odell Thurman-numerous alcohol related fights, Channing Crowder-Criminal Mischief, Battery, Disorderly Conduct CB: Antrel Rolle-Battery, Resisting Arrest, John McPherson- Felony Drug TrafficingMarlin Jackson –Felonious Assault, Aggravated Assault S: Abram Elam –Gang Rape, Diamond Ferri-Assault & Resisting Arrest Marcus Curry-Assault, Devonte Edwards-Resisting & Delaying An Officer Mock Draft Prediction (as I predict the players will be chosen) Mock Draft 1st Round 1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB The right choice. 2 Miami Braylon Edwards WR I’m guessing trade here with the Vikings. 3 Cleveland Mike Williams WR Don’t be shocked if this is a trade down by Cleveland, they have a lot of holes to fill. SD or Minnesota being the prime candidates, with two 1st round picks. 4 Chicago Ronnie Brown RB The Bears will be the 1st team to reach for one of the RBs 5 Tampa Bay Cadillac Williams RB The Bucs or Dolphins start rebuilding their running game with the smallest of the big three backs 6 Tennessee Aaron Rodgers QB McNair is almost done. 7 Minnesota Cedrick Benson RB My guess it’s the Dolphins here. 8 Arizona Antrel Rolle DB This is the guy they’ve wanted all along. 9 Washington Mark Clayton WR They traded away Coles for Santana Moss, who will be gone after this season. 10 Detroit Marcus Spears DE Looking to upgrade the D line. 11 Dallas Shawne Merriman DE/LB Parcells gets his man. 12 San Diego Troy Williamson WR SD needs a receiver, so does Cleveland. 13 Houston Alex Barron OT They need to protect Carr better. 14 Carolina Kalif Barnes OT They probably would have taken Barron if Houston didn’t. 15 Kansas City Derrick Johnson LB The D was a mess last year. 16 New Orleans Erasmus James DE Best player available. 17 Cincinnati Pac Man Jones CB The Bengals will go D. 18 Minnesota Dan Cody DE They already addressed offense at pick 7. 19 St. Louis David Pollack DE He might end up at OLB. 20 Dallas Heath Miller TE The Cowboys trade down to a team that can’t believe he’s still on the board, and won’t be when they would have drafted. 21 Jacksonville Chris Henry WR Reggie Williams didn’t perform well last year. 22 Baltimore Jammal Brown OT They get their man. 23 Seattle Shaun Cody DT The Seahawks are further away than most people think.. 24 Green Bay David Bass OL They need lots of help on the O-line and will wait until the 2nd round to get Favre’s replacement. 25 Washington Marlin Jackson CB To replace Smoot . 26 New York Jets Fabian Washington CB There going to be a real run on CBs early. 27 Atlanta Matt Roth DE They need D help to get past the Eagles if they want to play in Detroit next February. 28 San Diego Thomas Davis S Already addressed receiver earlier. 29 Indianapolis Justin Miller CB Dungy goes for D. 30 Pittsburgh Demarcus Ware LB/DE Best player left on the board. 31.Philadelphia Matt Jones QB/TE/WR I consider this the reach of the draft. 32.New England Adam Snyder OL They need to shore up the O-line. The second of my 2 mock drafts of the 1st round consists of the players I would draft if I were named the GM of each team on the week of the draft. I’ll try to eliminate the busts and beat the GM’s. I will usually take a player I feel is a solid first rounder even if he’s on most boards as a 2nd or 3rd or later rounder. I’d rather pick a productive player in round 1 than pick a bust just because some expert thinks he’s a first rounder. This is my way of stating who I think the best players will be, therefore I might pick a guy #1 who won’t go in the 1st round. For example, if you were to do the 2000 draft today, the top choice would be Tom Brady. Mock Draft Prediction (as I would pick the players) Mock Draft 1st Round 1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB Go with the guy with the most potential to be a franchise QB. 2 Miami Andrew Walter QB The Dolphins need a QB & I rate him higher than the rest. 3 Cleveland Stefon LeFors QB I’m taking my top 3 QBs 1-2-3. I don’t care if he’s available in the 3rd or 4th in the real draft, he’s going to be an impact player. 4 Chicago Adrian McPherson QB I’m taking the gamble that he won’t. 5 Tampa Bay Antrel Rolle CB I hope that he’s learned not to punch out any more opposing players. 6 Tennessee Braylon Edwards WR I can’t pass him up at 6. 7 Minnesota Mike Williams WR Replacement for Moss keeps Culpepper happy. 8 Arizona Heath Miller TE Best player available. 9 Washington Mark Clayton WR They traded away Coles for Santana Moss, who will be gone after this season. 10 Detroit Aaron Rodgers QB I’ll hope this Tedford QB is better than the last one. 11 Dallas Derrick Johnson LB I get Parcells his man, even though he’ll never be LT. 12 San Diego Mark Bradley WR SD needs a receiver, so does Cleveland. 13 Houston Alex Barron OT I’m hoping he’s not too risky here. 14 Carolina Adam Terry OT He might end up better than Barron. 15 Kansas City Shawne Merriman DE/LB The D was a mess last year. 16 New Orleans Luis Castillo DT He’s not on my board, but I hope the steroid thing was a one time deal. 17 Cincinnati Pac Man Jones CB Getting Marvin Lewis help on D. 18 Minnesota Justin Tuck DE I’ve already addressed offense at pick 7. 19 St. Louis Carlos Rogers CB Best player left from my board. 20 Dallas Jason Campbell QB Two Drews are not better than none. 21 Jacksonville David Bass G I wouldn’t draft him for any position but guard. 22 Baltimore Eric Green CB Repairing the secondary. 23 Seattle Thomas Davis S/LB More D from my board. 24 Green Bay Jammal Brown OT As long as he stays at RT. 25 Washington Fabian Washington CB CB with the traded pick. 26 New York Jets Corey Webster CB They need a CB. 27 Atlanta Troy Williamson WR They need a WR for Vick, he’ll be long gone in the real draft. 28 San Diego David Pollack DE Already addressed receiver earlier. 29 Indianapolis Ronnie Brown RB Then trade Edgerrin James. 30 Pittsburgh Marcus Johnson OT/G Keeping the O line strong. 31.Philadelphia Roddy White WR They need more than TO, if he ever shows up. 32.New England Logan Mankins G They need to shore up the O-line. A Look at the Buffalo Bills 2005 Draft Needs I will present this position by position. This will be followed by my two mock drafts. First the picks as I would make them and second my guess of what the Bills will do. I’ve added a pick for the 2nd or 3rd round to represent Travis Henry being traded. Quarterback J.P. Losman has been named the starter. With the signing of Kelly Holcomb as the veteran backup, the Bills are looking for a 3rd stringer. That 3rd stringer will be a guy with a minimum salary. I don’t see that need being addressed in the draft. Right now the team has four QBs on the roster, including street free agents Tory Woodbury and Kevin Thompson. Thompson has elevated his status with some impressive work in NFL Europe. If the Bills decide that they want to bring in an undrafted player to compete for the 3rd stringer’s job, Woodbury won’t be around much longer. Just as likely is that the team lets Thompson and Woodbury battle it out in camp and if neither impresses, a QB is plucked off the waiver wire like the team did several years ago with Travis Brown. If they sign a QB, chances are it will be Chad Friehauf, who will be going to the practice squad if they like what they see. Running Back Willis McGahee is the starter. Currently behind him on the roster are returnees Shaud Williams, Joe Burns, and Dante Brown. With veteran free agents like Garrison Hearst on the market, there isn’t an immediate need to draft a backup running back. Factor in the depth needs at other positions and the chances of a drafted RB in camp are slim, only a 6th or 7th rounder possible. Travis Henry is gone. Fullback Damon Shelton is the only fullback on the roster, although Joe Burns is behind him on the depth chart. There will be at least one rookie in camp, but chances are he’ll be an undrafted free agent. As with QB and RB, the team has more important needs and the front line player or players are entrenched in the position. Tight End Mark Campbell and Tim Euhus both suffered knee injuries late last season. Ryan Neufeld is a marginal talent. If the team can find a TE that they feel is worthy of drafting, the Bills will be drafting a TE, but the pickings are pretty slim this draft. Wide Receiver Lee Evans is an emerging superstar. Eric Moulds is still a star, but every year his contract has to be renegotiated because of high salary cap numbers. Eventually that will stop. As a result, the Bills may be thinking of drafting a receiver somewhere in this draft. Josh Reed has been a disappointment and could be cut if Sam Aiken beats him out for the #3 receiver’s spot. Freddie Smith should make the roster as a punt returner and backup receiver. If a receiver is drafted it could be early, since they will be looking for OL and DB help, but a higher rated receiver may be there in the 2nd-4th round. If the team doesn’t get a receiver this year, they can always get one in free agency or the 2006 draft. This is not an immediate need in this year’s draft, so it may not be addressed due to other needs. Offensive Tackle The team loves Syracuse’s Adam Terry. If they don’t trade up for a higher rated 1st round lineman, pencil him in as the pick. If Henry is traded anywhere but Arizona, Terry is the pick, even if they have to trade up to get him. Drafting Terry gives them flexibility down the line if Mike Williams doesn’t play up to his lofty salary in 2005. The only way Trey Teague moves to left tackle is if Adam Terry is drafted before the Bills can make a move to get him. Look for Albany’s Geir Gudmundsen to get a camp invite if he goes undrafted. If they don’t get Terry, he might be the team’s 7th round pick. Guard I can’t see the team drafting a pure guard after signing Bennie Anderson. The team has starters Anderson and Chris Villarrial as well as 2004 starting LGs Ross Tucker and Lawrence Smith. Toss in Mike Gandy, Justin Bannan and even Ben Sobieski and you can see why this is one of the least likely position to be addressed in the draft. If the team drafts a guard it means he’ll go to camp as a center candidate. There is no room for another guard on the roster. Center Trey Teague is an unrestricted free agent after the 2005 season, so a center may be drafted. However, there may be no need to worry if they determine that Teague can be resigned or that Ross Tucker can be his replacement. If a center drops to day 2 who they really like, they may draft a center, but otherwise only an undrafted free agent will be brought in. Jon Dorenbos is coming off a knee injury and Mike Gomez is 2nd on the depth chart at LS. If a rookie LS is brought in he’ll be a free agent, not a draft choice. Defensive Tackle Sam Adams is getting older and Pat Williams is gone. Ron Edwards can be a free agent after the season and Luvale Sape has limited ability. Even if Tim Anderson turns into the next Tim Krumrie, the team will be looking to get a DT who can start by 2006. This position could be addressed in the 2nd or 3rd round. If the team goes OT and CB 1st, they’ll have to draft a DT with their 1st or 2nd pick in 2006 because the cupboard will be bare after the 2005 season, plus Adams will be a free agent after 2006. Defensive End I can’t see this being addressed on day 1 because OT, CB, DT, TE and K are all priorities that need TD’s immediate attention. Once you get to rounds 5-7 anything is possible because best player available really starts to apply. Aaron Schobel is locked in as one starter. Because of more immediate concerns, the team will go with Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney again opposite Schobel. However, they could pick up a veteran free agent to compete here. This position just cannot be addressed in this years draft. Linebacker I don’t see a linebacker being taken. Once again, anything goes in rounds 5-7, but there are just too many other needs on the roster. Cornerback This could become a major area of need in a hurry. Nate Clements is an unrestricted free agent after this season, Travis McGee is a restricted free agent after 2005. The only protection that the Bills have is that they could move Troy Vincent back to corner, but that would severely weaken the safety corps. A CB or S is almost guaranteed to be a high priority unless they shock us all and announce a contract extension for Nate Clements before the draft. A Clements trade is more likely than an extension. Safety Lawyer Malloy is set at SS, Vincent is set at FS. Backups Coy Wire and Rashad Baker are close to set. The only way a S is drafted is if they can’t get a CB and are thinking of shifting Vincent back there at some point by 2006. Kicker If you look at stats, like some of the national writers do, the team looks set with Rian Lindell. If you watch the Bills at all, you know Rian Lindell is a liability who must be replaced. If the team’s opening day kicker is Lindell, the team is in big trouble. Don’t kid yourself, team management is fully aware of the situation. Coach Mularchy has shown how little confidence he has in Lindell past 40 yards. Lindell will not be back. He’s also too expensive with a salary of $825,000 and a cap number over $1.3 million. For less than $300,000 cap hit, he can be cut after June 1st. So, what are the options? The team could shock the draft and pick Mike Nugent with its 1st pick in round 2. It’s unlikely, but if he’s the best player on the board, I could see them locking up the kicker's job for the next decade. If Owen Pochman is kicking up a storm in Europe I could see them just letting him beat out Lindell in camp. The most likely scenario is this: bring in a rookie K either drafting one in the 7th round or getting an undrafted free agent into camp. Pochman, Lindell and the rookie battle it out in camp. If Pochman is bombing in Europe by the draft, he’s a goner before camp and Lindell battles the rookie. If Pochman is lights out in Europe, Lindell may be gone before camp opens. Then it’s Pochman vs the rookie. The season’s kicker might not even be in camp, but could be a veteran who gets cut by someone else. Believe it, one way or another Lindell will not be back, they can’t afford him. Punter Bryan Moorman is the punter. Anyone brought in is camp fodder. As I said last year, this is one position that I can guarantee will not be addressed in the 7 round draft. Conclusion The Bills have major needs to address at several positions, but most of those needs are preemptive strikes against future free agent defections. They must have a new kicker by opening day 2005. Cornerback and defensive tackle have to be addressed since there are potential free agent losses after the season. Offensive tackle and possibly Tight End are also areas where the team has to look for immediate help. The Bills only have 6 total picks, but Henry will get them at least one more. Any trade of Clements would be a wash since they’d have to draft a corner to replace him. This could be an elite team in 2005 since the only positions that need an immediate upgrade are offensive tackle, kicker and possibly tight end. After the 2nd round, this draft, for the most part is for 2006, not 2005. Once Travis Henry is traded, the draft picture will become a lot more focused. Mock Draft Buffalo Bills (As I would select) 2nd Rd. 1) Adam Terry OT 2) Marcus Johnson OL 3)Mike Nugent K 4) Eric Green CB 5) Mark Bradley WR 6)David Bass G 7) Thomas Davis S 8) Josh Bullocks S Pick –ADAM TERRY OT – If Terry is still on the board, he’s the pick because you don’t pass up a starting LT in round 2. Wild Card-Henry Trade Pick Pick -MIKE NUGENT K. After the O Line is addressed, if Nugent is there he’s a must pickThis team is a lot closer than most people think. They have to have a reliable kicker to ever win a championship, and Lindell is the type who can blow a key kick at any time. 3rd Rd 1) Corey Webster CB 2) Ronald Fields DT 3) O.J. Atogwe S 4) Jason Brown C Pick –. COREY WEBSTER CB-I’ve got to get a decent sized corner early in this draft 4th Rd: 1)Ben Wilkerson C 2) Airese Currie WR S 3) Michael Roos OT 4) Ryan Moats RB Pick- BEN WILKERSON C- Got to keep shoring up the O Line. 5th Rd : 1)Cody McCarty TE 2)Adam Kieft OT 3)Chris Colmer OT 4) Will Matthews FB Pick- CODY MCCARTY –Even if Campbell & Euhus are ready, I need a better 3rd TE. 6th Rd: 1) Maurice Clarett RB 2) Jamaica Rector WR 3) Bo Scaife TE 4) Ray Willis OT Pick- MAURICE CLARETT-By the 6th round you’re talking a crapshoot. Why not take a player who even though he only played 1 year, it was a great year. 7th Rd : 1)Derreck Robinson DE 2)Chris Onorato K 3) John Marino K 4) Matt Grootegard S Pick- DERRECK ROBINSON- This pick assumes that I was able to draft Mike Nugent in the 2nd round. If I missed him, I’m going to be drafting Chris Onorato. Free Agent Finds Here are 18 additional players who I’d go after as free agents if they go undrafted: Lang Campbell QB Chad Friehauf QB Geir Gudmundsen OT Brian Koslovsky G Jesse Lumsden RB Seymour Shaw RB Geoff McArthur WR Dan Sheldon WR Billy Bajema TE Phillip Alexander DE Keyonta Marshall DT Andrew Hoffman DT James Kinney LB Liam Ezekial LB Ronald Stanley LB Sidney Haugabrook CB Ryan Guitierrez S James King S This next mock draft is just a guessing game as to who the Bills will actually draft. If I hit on even one of their picks it will be close to a miracle. One thing I’ve noticed about Donahoe, he likes to take players from top programs. Mock Draft Buffalo Bills *2a). Adam Terry OT *2b) Mike Nugent PK 3. Corey Webster CB 4. Ryan Moats RB 5. Matt McCoy LB 6. Stanford Routt CB 7. Eric Ghiaciuc C * Travis Henry trade pick-if it’s before the Bills’ regular pick, it will be Terry, Nugent will be at Bills regular pick. If the pick is after #55, if Terry is gone Nugent is the 1st pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest Posted April 20, 2005 Share Posted April 20, 2005 Webster definitely won't be there in the 3rd, and Terry will most likely be gone by the 55th pick. Unless that Nugent pick is the Eagles 35th pick I don't see us having a chance with him either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted April 29, 2005 Author Share Posted April 29, 2005 Draft Board & Bust Board Results: Player/team/round 10 on draft board & 2 on bust board not in NFL camps As of 4/30/05 The Draft Board QB: Alex Smith SF 1, Andrew Walter Oak 3, Stefan LeFors Car 4, Adrian McPherson NO 5, Chad Friehauf Den FA, Ben Dougherty FA, Jason White KC-tryout FA, Lang Campbell Cle FA, Matt Cassel NE 7 OT: Adam Terry Balt 2, Michael Roos Ten 2, Adam Kieft Cin 5, Chris Colmer TB 3,Frank Omiyale Atl 5, Ray Willis Sea 4, Todd Herremans Phil 5, Calvin Armstrong Phil 6,Geir Gudmundsen BILLS FA G: David Bass SF 2, Marcus Johnson Min 2, Logan Mankins NE 1, Dan Buenning TB 4Claude Terrell Stl 4, Dan Connolly Jack FA, C.J.Brooks Oak FA, Brian Kovolisky FA,Uriah Moenoa FA C: Jason Brown Balt 4, Ben Wilkerson Cin FA, Eric Ghiaciuc Cin 4, Matt Katula LS Bal FA, Kyle Andrews LS Chi-tryout FA, L.P. LaDouceur LS NO FA. RB: Ryan Moats Phil 3, Frank Gore SF 3, Maurice Clarett Den 3, Deandra Cobb (KR) Atl 6, Brandon Jacobs NYG 4, Jesse Lumsden Sea FA, Seymour Shaw FA FB: Will Matthews Det FA, Madison Hedgecock Stl 7, Jon Goldsberry BILLS FA WR: Braylon Edwards Cle1, Mike Williams Det 1, Mark Clayton Balt 1, Mark Bradley Chi 2, Airese Currie Chi 5, Jamaica Rector Dal FA, Geoff McArthur FA, Dan Sheldon Ariz FA,Keron Henry NO FA TE: Heath Miller Pit 1, Cody McCarty SD FA, Bo Scaife Ten 6, Billy Bajema SF 7 DE: Shawne Merriman SD 1, Justin Tuck NYG 3, Derreck Robinson SD FA, Phillip Alexander FA DT: Ronald Fields SF 5, Keyonta Marshall Phil 7, Andrew Hoffman Cle 6 LB: Derrick Johnson KC 1, Barrett Ruud TB 2, Lofa Tatupu Sea 2, Ryan Wallace Pit 5 Ryan Claridge NE 5, Matt McCoy Phil 2, Lance Mitchell Ariz 5, Russ Rabe NO FA,Nigel Eldridge Ten FA, Derek Wake NYG FA, Roger Cooper Dal FA, Boomer Grigsby KC 5, Wendell Hunter BILLS FA, Liam Ezekial BILLS FA, James Kinney Jack FA , Ronald Stanley Pit FA CB: Carlos Rogers Wash 1, Eric Green Ariz 3, Corey Webster NYG 2, Darrent Williams Den 3, Antonio Perkins Cle 4, Scott Starks Jax 3, Eric King BILLS 5, Ronald Bartell Stl 2, Stanford Routt Oak 2, Kelvin Hayden Ind 2, Aric Williams Phil FA, Sidney Haugabrook Ten FA, S: Thomas Davis Car 1, Josh Bullocks NE 4, Oshiomogho Alogwe Stl 3, Sean Considine Phil 4, James Sanders NE 4, Jim Leonhard BILLS FA, Matt Grootegard TB FA,Mitch Meeuwsen Mia FA, Jason Leach SD FA, Ryan Guitierrez FA,Josh Dean FA, James King Cle FA K: Mike Nugent NYJ 2, Tyler Jones CHI FA, Chris Onorato FA, John Marino FA P: Dustin Colquitt KC 3, Cole Farden SF FA The Bust Board QB: Dan Orlovsky Det 5, Chris Rix FA, Timmy Chang Ariz FA, Brock Berlin Mia FA, Dustin Long Dal tryout FA OT: Jeremy Parquet KC 7 C: Richie Incognito Stl 3 G: Chris Kemoeatu Pit 6, Elton Brown Ariz 4, Sam Wilder Dal FA RB: Cedrick Benson Chi 1, Kay Jay Harris Mia FA, Verand Morency Hou 3, T.J. McLendon Atl FA FB: Zack Tuiasopopo Pit FA, Brandon Joe FA WR: Chris Henry Cin 3, Fred Gibson Pit 4, Larry Brackins TB 5 TE: Kevin Everett BILLS 3, Tony Curtis Dal FA DE: Trent Cole Phil 5, George Gause BILLS FA, Mike Montgomery GB 6, David McMillan Cle 5 DT:Anttaj Hawthorne Oak 6, Anthony Bryant TB 6 LB: Odell Thurman Cin 2, Channing Crowder Mia 3, Michael Boley Atl 5 CB: Marlin Jackson Ind 1, Alphonso Hodge KC 5 S: Brodney Pool Cle 2, Gerald Sensabaugh Jax 5, Dante Nicholson TB 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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