Stats section with an honest attempt to rank teams

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

It occurred to me that we don't have a STATS section to discuss various subjects, and too shed some light on what it all means. I'll start things off with the topic of where we rank on offense and defense by my method. Using PFR stats I came up with a formula based on yards gained/allowed, tds for/against, turnovers and penalty yards. (tds get 20 yard bonus, Fumbles -40, Intercepts-45).All this is divided by number of plays to get a rate of production. My stats correlate with PPG for and against quite well; at .8 and .7 respectively. In the last 2 columns I have come up with schedule adjustment that seems to work pretty well. Shown are the new; after SOS rankings.

 

The Bills rank 9th on offense and 12th on defense as you can see from the chart. Their SOS has little impact on rankings.

 

What stands out to me:

 

1. Is Atlanta great on offense or what? Washington is terrific too- ranking #2.

2. Denver is still number 1 on defense.

3. Dallas is good, but not as good as people think based on record.

4. I'm surprised at how good Tennessee is offensively, says a lot about Mariota.

5. Raiders rank 5th on offense and 27th on defense.

6. Cincinnati is better than their record.

 

Remember, this is an objective attempt to help answer questions like:

 

How much does Tyrods' running and turnover avoidance balances out his other shortcomings?

Is the Defense top 10? answer NO... but close

 

I hope this is helpful and fun. I do not believe this is the be all end all. For example, the role of special teams is polluting things to a certain extent. But, I did what I could with what I know.

 

Please state your questions and comments! I'm having trouble posting the chart, bear with me.

Edited November 30, 2016 by The Thurmanator

[Dorkington]

Personally, I like looking at average drives for the bigger picture.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/#all_drives

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/opp.htm#all_drives

 

What this tells me is... overall all, our offense is slightly better than average, and our defense is slightly below average. With a record of 6-5, this isn't really that surprising.

 

The big thing that stands out to me is that we are winning the TO battle, and the field position battle. That being said, as I've mentioned elsewhere, not all TOs are created equal, and I'd like to see our QB be more aggressive. On the defensive side, our biggest problem seems to be first downs given up due to penalties, where we rank 30th. Giving opposing teams free first downs while being an average defense does not help us at all.