A Look at the 2013 NFL Draft Pass Rushers

[Got_Wood]

Take a look at this article by a site called Second Round Stats:

http://secondroundst...ss-rushers-pt1/

 

It compares detailed stats about each top level pass rushing talent in the draft. This includes Ziggy Ansah, Jarvis Jones, Tank Carradine, Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo, Bjoern Werner, Alex Okafor, and Damontre Moore. Stats never give you the full picture, but this breakdown is really valuable. Here are the top 5 in each category in order:

 

Speed:

Okafor, Mingo, Jordan, Werner, Carradine

 

Pass rush versatility (Moves outside, inside, and bull rush):

Moore, Mingo, Ansah, Okafor, Jones

 

Strength of Opponents:

Ansah, Okafor, Moore, Mingo, Jones

 

Combined Sacks and Tackles for Loss last season:

Jones (39), Moore (33.5), Werner (31), Okafor (29), Carradine (24)

 

 

Take what you want from this, but the guys I like most are Demontre Moore, Jarvis Jones, and Alex Okafor/Bjoern Werner tied for 3rd. Dion Jordan looks like a one trick pony speed rusher off the edge to me. And Ansah and Mingo have too many question marks to draft high.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Got_Wood

[C.Biscuit97]

Pass rushers is one of the hardest positions to draft. A lot of great NFL pass rushers have been afterthoughts in their draft. Personally, I think you just draft as many high production guys as possible.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Take what you want from this, but the guys I like most are Demontre Moore, Jarvis Jones, and Alex Okafor/Bjoern Werner tied for 3rd. Dion Jordan looks like a one trick pony speed rusher off the edge to me. And Ansah and Mingo have too many question marks to draft high.

 

First of all, thanks for posting. Interesting stuff.

 

I try to do my own evaluations instead of basing them on the work of people who are just as likely to know less than me than more than me.

 

Several things should be noted here regarding his methodology. He uses percentages based on the number of sacks. Percentages only become valid when sample sizes are large enough. Mingo for instance only had (I believe) 4.5 sacks this year. So his % breakdowns are very useless because they're only based on 5 plays. Of all the players studied, Jarvis Jones had the most sacks (14.5). Even that sample size (15 plays) doesn't allow for definitive %s, much less conclusions.

 

Obviously I object to the analysis of only plays which resulted in sacks. For instance I would be very interested in a breakdown such as sack percentage (the number of times a player rushed the QB on passing situations which resulted in a sack).

 

Minimally a pass rusher should be judged by how successful they are when rushing on ALL passing plays.

 

The author says that this is only part 1 and that a part 2 is forthcoming. We'll see if he addresses any of his shortcomings.

 

As for the players, Mingo is at least as talented as Jones but had 10 fewer sacks. What do we make of this?

 

Jordan is almost unique in his ability to play in space. He actually would line up and cover the slot receiver on occasion and his straight line AND movement skills suggest that he would be freaky good in coverage. So does his game tape.

 

I heard that Moore and Werner looked poor in workouts. Ansah is perhaps the most elite athlete of the group, a former sprinter who relies on the bull rush if you believe this study.

 

An interesting read but I would caution against basing any opinions on it.

[JPS]

All I read is for signs that the guy is ANYTHING like Maybin. Pass rusher may be one of those things where the Bills have to throw 7 or 8 picks over the next few years just to get 2 or 3. I suppose it depends what the Bills defensive identity will be once they grow up.

[Got_Wood]

First of all, thanks for posting. Interesting stuff.

 

I try to do my own evaluations instead of basing them on the work of people who are just as likely to know less than me than more than me.

 

Several things should be noted here regarding his methodology. He uses percentages based on the number of sacks. Percentages only become valid when sample sizes are large enough. Mingo for instance only had (I believe) 4.5 sacks this year. So his % breakdowns are very useless because they're only based on 5 plays. Of all the players studied, Jarvis Jones had the most sacks (14.5). Even that sample size (15 plays) doesn't allow for definitive %s, much less conclusions.

 

Obviously I object to the analysis of only plays which resulted in sacks. For instance I would be very interested in a breakdown such as sack percentage (the number of times a player rushed the QB on passing situations which resulted in a sack).

 

Minimally a pass rusher should be judged by how successful they are when rushing on ALL passing plays.

 

The author says that this is only part 1 and that a part 2 is forthcoming. We'll see if he addresses any of his shortcomings.

 

As for the players, Mingo is at least as talented as Jones but had 10 fewer sacks. What do we make of this?

 

Jordan is almost unique in his ability to play in space. He actually would line up and cover the slot receiver on occasion and his straight line AND movement skills suggest that he would be freaky good in coverage. So does his game tape.

 

I heard that Moore and Werner looked poor in workouts. Ansah is perhaps the most elite athlete of the group, a former sprinter who relies on the bull rush if you believe this study.

 

An interesting read but I would caution against basing any opinions on it.

 

Good feedback. I agree that the stats are limited, and the percentages aren't true reflections of their ability in some cases. But I like the percentages when it comes to versatility and how these guys get to the QB. You can see which players have a variety of moves and which players lack creativity/versatility. Moore attacks the QB from all angles, Jordan strictly rushes outside the tackles (this guy is as close to a Maybin type prospect as you can get, and I would be weary of that). Ansah and Okafor are strong and like the bull rush.

 

I added in Sacks + Tackles for Loss because it adds another dimension. It shows they can get to the QB and stuff the run. There is never a perfect measurement, but I like what they did here so far. Looking forward to part 2.

[Rockinon]

After both Kelsay and Merriman "Retired" I think this is exactly where the Bills will be looking at #8.

[uncle flap]

Great posts from everybody. I'd be thrilled with most of these guys at 8 but Jordan is my current favorite. (I reserve the right to change my mind and deny ever saying so, though )

 

Dion Jordan is anything but a one trick pony. The guy was a former WR and moves fluidly in space. He can definitely cover, hell, he even covered WRs lined up in the slot for the Ducks. I'm sure he won't be asked to do that in the NFL, but it speaks to his athleticism and versatility.

 

I think he might be the best fit for Pettine's D, as he can rush AND cover...and if he's on the board at 8 they should RUN to the podium.

 

EDIT: SJBF- I somehow missed you mentioning the same stuff about Jordan- needless to say I agree!

Edited March 6, 2013 by uncle flap

[....lybob]

I'd still take Ansah, Physically he's right there with Aldon Smith and Jason Pierre-Paul- he's raw but if I was Drawing up a 4-3 DE on a board he'd look an awful lot like Ansah.

[uncle flap]

I'd still take Ansah, Physically he's right there with Aldon Smith and Jason Pierre-Paul- he's raw but if I was Drawing up a 4-3 DE on a board he'd look an awful lot like Ansah.

 

Considering Pettine's past, and the current personnel, I don't think the Bills need a 4-3 DE at 8.

 

I do think he'll develop into a great player, but for the Bills at least, I'd rather take Jordan bc I think he'd make more of a difference.