Astrobot Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 My thinking about each team's desire and need to trade up, down, or no trade: 1 Indianapolis-(top needs= QB, WR, then DT)=Andrew Luck QB-------1st Need Met, No Trade 2 Washington---(top needs=QB, CB, OT)=Robert Griffin QB----1st Need Met, No Trade 3 Minnesota----(top needs=WR, OT, SS, CB)=Matt Kalil OT--- 2nd Need Met, 50% poss. Trade-Down We know Indy's taking a QB, as will Washington. Minnesota can get a WR in RD2 and have their top 2 needs met, or trade down with teams wanting OT early (St. Louis, Buffalo, Arizona). IMHO trade partner being Arizona is most likely, St. Louis 2nd, Buffalo a distant 3rd. Teams wanting Blackmon would also be in play (Buffalo, Carolina, Cincy, Miami, St. Louis, Houston, Oakland); they'd have to vault Cleveland, who is likely to take Blackmon. Cincy also could trade their 2 RD1 picks and their RD3 for Trent Richardson. I consider Cincy (needs CB, then RB, WR, OG, FS) the most likely team to move up in RD1. 4 Cleveland----(top needs=WR, OT, then RB)=Justin Blackmon WR-------1st Need Met,No Trade 5 Tampa Bay----(top needs=ILB,OLB,CB)=Luke Kuechly ILB-----1st Need Met,No Trade 6 St Louis-----(top needs=DT43,OLB43,WR,LT)=too Many Needs, 75% likely to trade down Cleveland and T-Bay are getting their top positional need and are unlikely to compromise. St. Louis has so many needs that they'll look for trades. If they stay put, Reiff, Floyd, Cox or Zach Brown are fits, but they'd still get a fit if they drop a bit. Trades would come from teams in the teens needing to leapfrog Jacksonville for CB (most likely Cincy, Buffalo, then Dallas), for OLB (Arizona, Seattle, Philly, Buffalo), or for WR (Buffalo or Miami but Miami'll take QB). Trent Richardson RB is still out there, too, but every team listed so far has bigger holes than RB, and RB is the least-needed position in this draft, so RB's will be value picks into the top of RD7. Buffalo has the most need to jump JAX, so they might jump #6, likely a RD3 and RD4#124 pick. 7 Jaxville----(top needs=WR,CB,DE43)=Claiborne CB---------2nd Need Met--40% Trade Down, 20%up 8 Miami-------(top needs=QB,WR,OT,DE43)=Tannehill QB------1st Need Met, No Trade 9 Carolina----(top needs=WR,DT43)=Fletcher Cox DT43------1st Need Met, No Trade 10 Buffalo----(top needs=LT,OLB43,WR,CB,BPA) There are now only 5 options at #10 with a Reach of <6 slots at #10, using the DraftTek Big Board Rating Richardson RB------------5th best Reiff OT---------------8th best DeCastro OG--------------9th best Floyd WRF-------------13th best Gilmore CB--------------16th best Jacksonville could trade their pick for a team needing to vault Miami for OT, QB, DE43, or WR. (Buffalo is again one of those who might wish to leapfrog a division rival for Floyd, Tannehill, or Reiff. What about Arizona, jilted by Manning, screwing Miami by moving up for Tannehill as competition for Kolb? Houston at #26 isn't likely moving up for Floyd, but Cincy might make the move for CB, trading their #17 and #21 for Claiborne/Gilmore. This leaves the Bills in an enviable position, but Nix is going to at least CONSIDER going BPA here, causing the Bills to have a Deja Vu Moment as Trent Richardson's name is read. O-Line players Reiff-DeCastro will be high on Nix's board. Gilmore is likely to be there, as will Floyd. Side Note: Mercilus is not listed because he's 12th best as DE, but only 22nd best as a OLB43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LynchMob23 Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 The only thing that stands as a knock on that proposed Bengals trade is they've only done it to trade up for Ki-Jana Carter and haven't since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted March 25, 2012 Author Share Posted March 25, 2012 I've heard the argument that Cincy would be trading away, say, Dennard and Barron, for Trent Richardson. I look at it as taking Adrian Peterson. CIN still has pick #53 to take a safety (Harrison Smith, Markelle Martin), and Josh Norman CB in RD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 The Bengals covet DeCastro, the Cowboys want him, now there's some noise out of Green Bay and a few other places as well. Two other mocks show DeCastro going right after the Bills pick - one has him to KC at #11; the other to Seattle at #12. As I've maintained since early February, DeCastro is our guy at #10 in round one - if he lasts 'til then... GO BILLSSS!!!! "I expect to be undefeated...I expect to win every game!" - Chan Gailey 19 and 0 baby!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 The Bengals covet DeCastro, the Cowboys want him, now there's some noise out of Green Bay and a few other places as well. Two other mocks show DeCastro going right after the Bills pick - one has him to KC at #11; the other to Seattle at #12. As I've maintained since early February, DeCastro is our guy at #10 in round one - if he lasts 'til then... GO BILLSSS!!!! "I expect to be undefeated...I expect to win every game!" - Chan Gailey 19 and 0 baby!!!!! OR… the Bills pick becomes more valuable and opens up some trade down possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 (edited) OR… the Bills pick becomes more valuable and opens up some trade down possibilities. Well yeah, that could happen too. And also don't forget...anyone with any brains knows Andy Luck won't pass up the opportunity to eschew his senior year, declare for the draft early, play in the NFL, and earn mega-$$$$...just to play another year at Stanford and finish up some stupid architecture degree! Edited March 25, 2012 by The Senator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Thanks for putting this together Astro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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