jahnyc Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 I have come up with three possible scenarios for 2005. I am assuming that (i) both players will play in 2004, (ii) neither player suffers a significant injury during the season and (iii) there is no trade in 2004. The percentages below are pure guesses. Scenario #1. Both players on roster for 2005 season. Possible since both are under contract for that season. But I can't see this happening because neither player would be happy for a second year of this and I would anticipate that one would hold out (probably Henry since his contract will be up at the end of the season) to force a trade. Probability: 35% Scenario #2. McGahee traded before 2005 season. Unlikely. He would need to play a significant amount this year and show that he will be a great player. If he plays part time, would a team give up a number one pick for him? Would TD trade him for less? No. Even if we got a number one pick it would make no sense to draft a guy number one, get one season of play (probably on, at best, a shared basis) and then trade him. Probability 20% Scenario #3. Henry traded before 2005 season. Most likely. Unlike McGahee, if he stays healthy, Henry will have trade value. His contract is up in 2005 and if the Bills are not interested in a long-term deal, will probably want to move on. Probability 65% Conclusion: None of this really makes any sense unless McGahee recovers to the point where he is at least as good as Henry. Why would you trade Henry in 2005 if you are unsure about McGahee's future as a top back? TD really needs McGahee to show this season that he can be a top back, otherwise using a number one pick on McGahee was a big mistake. I am not sure that McGahee will be in top form this season (or ever), so it will be interesting to see how this plays out for 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Scenario 4: Wait to see what happens in the 2004 season before we worry too much about 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macaroni Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 I saw an interview with Tiki Barber this afternoon. They asked him if Ron Dayne's sucess this preseason has him worried at all. His comment was ......... heck no, we're team mates what people don't understand is that the opposition has to defend Barber AND Dayne ......... it's not Barber OR Dayne. That my friends is how the situation should be handled ......... the bills have Travis AND Willis ........... at least for the next year or two ........... why should everybody be trying to force a Travis OR Willis type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts