UWS Bill Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Hernandez hurt his knee, should miss the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Interesting. Since none of us know where the money is going, though, it really comes down to being able to analyze the spread immediately (i.e., Sunday night/Monday morning) and then hitting it. You can't worry about where the money is going and have to rely on your own "information." That is very accurate, people often really analyze these public betting % numbers. I've worked with them a lot on excel and the only value they hold is on high profile events. Your not going to see many soft lines to the majority of the market in a high profile event. They would rather be soft to the sharper players then the whole market, IE Super Bowl. But ultimately if your trying to read into line movements and betting %'s your certainly reacting to the market vs beating it. Most books actually pre-release the card to several experienced players before they even get released to the general public so they can anticipate what direction syndicates and sharp players will go in. Then they can properly position themselves against the rest of the market, subtly picking sides on certain games. By picking sides we might be talking about high vig or 1/2 a point, but that really adds up over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 fyi, for people rushing to bet the over Only once in the past 25 years has the over/under for a Bills game been set as has high as 53. Not a misprint. Check for yourself http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/teams/pastresults/2002-2003/team12.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 (edited) Interesting Kzoo..thx for the post. So all these sites tracking money, where the bets are made,etc, etc..what do you think of them? I am a small time bettor so do not subscribe to them..but be interested to hear your take on them I grew to a pretty sizable amount of clients in MLB this year and I released my games at about 3am each night when the line is very volatile. One of the sites I work with is based in France, so most were Europeans and awake when I was releasing the games. I always specified to use 5 dimes. For two straight months I beat the number when I woke up. I'm not that good I assure you of that. But 5 dimes was getting hit within a short time frame with a high amount of volume and money at volatile time. They adjust quickly in that situation. Some of these sites track online books in extreme detail, so if you see a big shift quickly it's usually a result of a syndicate or a high dollar player, but not always. Like I said, sometimes they just play mind games trying to draw in more action. Most people feel a quick shift is a result of what I said, a syndicate or high dollar player, and obviously players wan't to follow smart money. Ultimately trailing like this ensures you won't get ideal value, your reacting after the move, the goal is to react prior. So to a degree these sites can provide valuable information as to smart money movements, some people call them steam plays. Public money line movement is much more subtle and slow. But at the same time your reacting after the fact, which ensures your not getting the best number. The only real way to beat it long term is by just being able to predict the games better then the final number released. It's not anymore complicated then that, although as we all know, that in itself is very, very difficult. Edited September 20, 2011 by KzooMike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts