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http://walterfootball.com/offseason2011buf.php

 

2011 Buffalo Bills Offense:

The Bills don't have much talent on offense, but they possess something extremely important in this shortened offseason: continuity.

 

All but two starters return on Buffalo's scoring attack, including Ryan Fitzpatrick. Though Fitzpatrick doesn't have good arm strength, he's a tremendous fit in Chan Gailey's scheme. Despite not getting first-team reps in the preceding training camp, Fitzpatrick threw for 3,000 yards, 23 touchdowns and 15 picks in 13 games. He posted a 4-9 record in his starts, though he nearly knocked off three playoff teams, the Ravens, Bears and Steelers, losing to each by just three points.

 

The Pittsburgh defeat really hurt. Fitzpatrick launched a perfect deep ball to Steve Johnson in overtime, but Johnson dropped the easy touchdown. Though Buffalo's new No. 1 wideout had issues with drops - he tied for the league lead with 13 - he's still a dangerous weapon for Fitzpatrick, catching 82 balls for 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns.

 

One of the offensive starters missing for Buffalo is Lee Evans, who was dealt to Baltimore for a fourth-round pick. This isn't a big deal, however, as Evans has lost his speed. Making up for this is Brad Smith, acquired via free agency. Smith is a versatile weapon who will bring a new dimension to the Bills' offense.

 

Speaking of which, Gailey really needs to utilize C.J. Spiller. Despite being selected with the No. 9 overall selection in the 2010 NFL Draft, Spiller played just about a quarter of the team's snaps. He didn't even receive double-digit carries in any contest. Fred Jackson is a solid starting running back, but he turned 30 this offseason and doesn't have the potential to be great. Spiller might never be great himself, but Buffalo is really hurting itself by not taking advantage of his electrifying speed.

 

Buffalo's offensive line wasn't very good last year, but it did improve as the season progressed. Four starters are back, which as mentioned is great because continuity is very important after a brief offseason. The best players up front are left guard Andy Levitre and center Eric Wood, both of whom are entering their third year. Left tackle Demetrius Bell struggled in run blocking, but allowed just four sacks.

 

The two weak areas are at right guard and right tackle. Erik Pears occupies the latter position; the last time he started, but he was abysmal for the Raiders. Kraig Urbik and Mansfield Wrotto are set to battle for right guard, a competition that will have no winners.

 

 

 

2011 Buffalo Bills Defense:

Like the offense, the Bills return most of their starters - seven in fact, though that number might as well be nine because two key contributors (strong safety George Wilson and inside linebacker Reggie Torbor) now find themselves in the lineup.

 

The Bills needed more than just continuity to bolster a defense pathetic in terms of stopping the run (30th; 4.7 YPC) and getting to the quarterback (28th; 27 sacks). Two newcomers may provide the answer.

 

Marcell Dareus, chosen No. 3 overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, will start at defensive end alongside Pro Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams and serviceable end Dwan Edwards. The training camp reports about Dareus were glowing, and he certainly lived up to that in the preseason opener against Chicago. Dareus dominated the line of scrimmage and shut down the run.

 

Buffalo's best pass-rusher in its preseason battle at Chicago was Shawne Merriman, who somehow seemed revitalized after several lost seasons. If the Bills even get 50 percent of what Merriman was able to do, they'll accumulate many more sacks in 2011.

 

Joining Merriman in the linebacking corps are Chris Kelsay, Nick Barnett, and the winner of the Reggie Torbor and Andra Davis battle. Kelsay is a liability across from Merriman; he's a poor fit for the 3-4, though he's likely to start because Aaron Maybin was released. Barnett, meanwhile, replaces Paul Posluszny as the team's three-down inside linebacker. Though Barnett is 3-and-a-half years older than Posluszny, he'll act as a solid substitute. He'll have to because both Torbor and Davis are mediocre at best.

 

Though Buffalo had a lacking pass rush in 2010, the secondary still limited the opposition to just a 6.9 YPA, which was good for 14th in the NFL. That number figures to improve this season because in addition to the improved pass rush, the Bills will have cornerback Terrence McGee back from injury. McGee had just three starts because of a nerve issue in his knee. He's reportedly healthy now.

 

The back-end play is also good. Jairus Byrd is talented free safety. Though he didn't pick off nine passes again as he did in his rookie campaign, he excelled in coverage. George Wilson, a quality, well-rounded defensive back, will start next to Byrd at strong safety.

 

The only issue in Buffalo's secondary is Drayton Florence. Perennially overrated, Florence surrendered six touchdowns and a 61.5 completion percentage. The good news though is that with McGee back, Florence won't have to cover No. 1 receivers anymore.

 

 

 

2011 Buffalo Bills Schedule and Intangibles:

No surprise that Buffalo's ownership is once again screwing the fans out of a home game. For the fourth year in a row, the Bills will play a "home game" in Toronto. They'll "host" the Redskins on Oct. 30 at the Rogers Centre, where they have never won.

 

If ESPN didn't kill its best show, the original NFL Primetime, Chris Berman would say, "Bills... special... teams. No, wait! Bills special teams!" C.J. Spiller averaged 14.6 yards on his punt returns. He wasn't as effective on kickoffs overall, but he scored a touchdown. Newly signed Brad Smith can help in that department.

 

Rian Lindell attempted just 21 field goals in 2010, hitting 16 of them. He was 2-of-5 from 50-plus.

 

Brian Moorman didn't have a good year. He maintained a poor punting average of 42.4, with only 17-of-75 tries inside the 20.

 

The Bills have one of the easiest non-divisional schedules in the NFL this year. Winnable games include: Kansas City (road), Oakland (home), Cincinnati (road), Washington (Toronto), Tennessee (home) and Denver (home). Like every other AFC East team, they also get to beat up on the Dolphins twice.

 

 

2011 Buffalo Bills Analysis: Buffalo has a shot at the playoffs this year. Don't laugh. The Bills have a lot going for them. They have continuity, which is extremely important this year; they have the luxury of a really easy schedule; and their defense will have a huge boost from newly acquired Marcell Dareus and seemingly healthy Shawne Merriman.

 

Every year, a team takes advantage of a soft schedule and makes a run at the playoffs out of nowhere. Last year, it was Kansas City. The year before, Denver, before things fell apart for them in December. You may recall the Derek Anderson-led 2007 Browns. The Bills lost to three playoff teams by a combined nine points last year. Who's to say they won't have more success against weaker opponents in 2011?

 

Projection: 9-7 (3rd in AFC East)

 

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I've emailed Walter a few times, and while we might have disagreed, he also got back to me and was polite in doing so.

 

Plus his football picks (especially Philly games) are good

 

 

I just stay away from the page because the snarkiness he shows, when people disagree with him, p***** me off sometime.

 

But I don't really think less of people that use him as a resource or anything :P

Edited by mob16151
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