Deep Dline Talent + Position Scarcity

[symbiant]

Consider:

- Mayock's been saying that this year's draft is loaded with DLine talent.

- About 10 teams are in need of a QB. No CLEAR franchise QB is coming back to us in Round 2.

 

Analogy:

Just thinking in terms of fantasy sports, if I know one position is loaded with talent... I will generally draft another position of need first and hope that someone falls from my top tier at the loaded position.

Tiered drafting + Position Scarcity

 

Let's relate this to fantasy baseball since it's heating up.

There are approx 8 elite first baseman ranked in the top 25 picks (yahoo).

 

If you have a top pick and use it on a 1B early, you risk that the best available player coming back to you in round 2 might be... another 1B? Then what do you do? "Reach" for another position? Take two first basemen? That is why there are 2 SS and 1 3B in the top 5 rankings even though statistically they are not near the top 10... position scarcity.

 

A very safe play would be to take that great player at a shallow position (SS/3B), and then come back around and get a pretty decent player in a deep position (1B) later.

 

In football terms:

If you take that best QB, you can come back around and get a pretty decent Front Seven Defensive player later. (For example, Rams with Bradford+Saffold vs Okung/Trent+Claussen.)

 

Conclusion

If an ELITE must have player falls in this draft to 3, they'll take him. Right now the elite players are at non-premier positions. If we have no elite players to choose from and QBs are rated close, I think the Bills will lean towards QB (Gabbert/Locker/Newton) in round 1... then Best Available Front Seven in Round 2.

 

PS - This isn't what I want, but what I think will happen unless a must have player is there at 3. Let's hope there is a Suh type no brainer guy left for us.

[Rockinon]

Deep Dline Talent + Position Scarcity = DL Round 1, DL Round 2. Simpler. Better chance of success.

 

Also, there are no elite QBs in this draft.

Edited March 2, 2011 by Rockinon

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

Consider:

- Mayock's been saying that this year's draft is loaded with DLine talent.

- About 10 teams are in need of a QB. No CLEAR franchise QB is coming back to us in Round 2.

 

Analogy:

Just thinking in terms of fantasy sports, if I know one position is loaded with talent... I will generally draft another position of need first and hope that someone falls from my top tier at the loaded position.

Tiered drafting + Position Scarcity

The trouble with the fantasy sports analogy is that a fantasy season covers only one year. So in fantasy you need to draft a QB, in the NFL draft you do not.

[r00tabaga]

Deep Dline Talent + Position Scarcity = DL Round 1, DL Round 2. Simpler. Better chance of success.

 

Also, there are no elite QBs in this draft.

 

There are plenty of potential elite QB's but no Flacco, no Ryan, no Bradford, no "immediate help" is what you mean right?

 

 

V. Miller is still my #1

[San Jose Bills Fan]

No offense, but I'd be more interested to see Crayonz' analogy of the situation.

[Aloha22]

You don't draft an inferior QB just because the talent pool is less. The talent pool is less for a reason, and they are not worth a top 3 pick!

 

Despite the fact that the defensive line talent pool is stronger than other positions, it just means there are more round 1 prospects but those guys at the top of that pool, are that much better than the other possible first rounders.

 

Quinn/Bowers >>>> Watt/Jordan >>>>> Heyward/Ballard

[Rockinon]

There are plenty of potential elite QB's but no Flacco, no Ryan, no Bradford, no "immediate help" is what you mean right?

 

 

V. Miller is still my #1

The big number of elite DL prospects means we have an opportunity to load up on dominant defensive talent. Taking a flyer on a QB who wouldn't even start would be just plain dumb. If a QB was considered so good that he could come right in and be better than Fitz I'd say pull the trigger. Expecting any of the QBs in this draft to do that is a pipe dream. None of them impress me that much.