Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 10, 2010 Share Posted September 10, 2010 My conclusions: -in recent times, it is not a rare exception to go to the SB with a "sleeper" late-round draft pick from whom few expected success. about 30% of qb in last 15 years SB were late draft choices or UDFA, almost 50% if you include 3rd round or later -late-round quarterbacks who get to the Superbowl typically take longer to achieve a winning record - >= 4 years, with 5 yrs most common -1st round draft picks are far more likely to succeed quickly, if they succeed. Basis for these conclusions, starting with 1995 SB considering both starting QB QB appearing in multiple SB were considered 1x b'cause that's how many times they were drafted Years to success defined as 1st winning season starting >50% of games 21 unique QB draft status breaks down as follows: 11 1st round draft choice 3 3rd round or earlier draft choice 7 late round or UDFA (1 4th - as a linebacker!, rest >6th or UDFA) 11 QB took <2 years to achieve success. Of these, 9 were first round draft choices 10 QB took >=4 years to achieve success. Of these, 2 were first round draft choices Sources for this were pro-football-reference, nfl.com and wikipedia. Hopeful fun facts about some undisputed HOF QB early years. On Steve Young: the Bucs 2–14 records in Young's seasons with them. Young's record as starter was 3–16. In his 19 games, <55% completion. The Bucs deemed Young a bust and drafted Testeverde. On Brett Favre: Favre: Atlanta coach Jerry Glanville did not approve drafting Favre, said it would take a plane crash for him to play him , and he was traded to Green Bay. During the trade physical doctors recommended his physical be failed. GB GM Wolf overruled them. I tried to paste in my compilation table so anyone who cares could check my work, but it doesn't format right. If anyone can tell me how to paste in a Word table, I'll edit this post to include it. Note: I basically did this for fun and to back up statements in another thread. I think the results are interesting. If you disagree with my clearly-stated criteria, feel free to state your own criteria and do your own research Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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