Rick McGlothlin's Very Preliminary Top 10 QB's for 2011

[Astrobot]

Mac's Very Preliminary Top 10 QB's for 2011 NFL Draft

 

I'm still in the middle of some tape review and research, so this is really sketchy at present. However, I've seen some things from what I've watched, reviewed and researched to this point that leads me to believe Locker and Luck aren't the locks everyone is making them out to be for the next NFL draft.

 

I've added some very early commentary on the tiny scraps of video available on the top QB's, so it's very raw at present. Will try and add some more in the coming weeks. There are several other QB's I may add to the list at the beginning of the season, such as Crist from Notre Dame, Gilbert of Texas, Landry at OU and Barkley at USC.

 

Looking forward to seeing them all in action, but for now, here's a peak at a very preliminary top ten list for QB's heading into the 2010 collegiate campaign.

 

1. Christian Ponder

2. Jerrod Johnson

3. Ryan Mallett

4. Jake Locker

5. Andrew Luck

6. Pat Devlin

7. Case Keenum

8. Jacory Harris

9. Tom Savage

10. Nick Foles

 

 

 

Christian Ponder, Sr., 6-3, 227, FSU

 

Check him out in the game at N. Carolina (one of the best defenses in the nation) as he led his team back from a 24-6 deficit to win the game. Nice, fluid motion. Doesn't get rattled in the pocket- good awareness. Excellent ball skills when utilizing play action fake. Decent arm strength and can make tight, quick passes or drop the longer ones into the hands of the receiver in stride. Could be the sleeper pick of 2011 that ends up being a solid NFL QB.

 

 

Jerrod Johnson, Sr., 6-5, 243 Texas A&M

 

 

I like this kid. Of all the QB's in the college ranks right now, JJ could be slotted with an NFL team today and probably make the most of the opportunity. He has all the throws, long or short, laser or soft, he's accurate and is deadly scrambling out of the pocket. He is a natural at the position, though a bit unorthodoxed at times. Even so, he makes the plays. In two years as a starter, he's tossed 51 TD passes against just 18 picks. In 2009 alone he threw 30 TD's and only 8 INT's. In his two years he's amassed over 6,000 years as the Aggie starter. Sure, he doesn't have quite as strong an arm as say, Michael Vick, or some other powerful NFL gun-slinger. However, the kid can put it where it needs to go. Two major drawbacks for JJ as I see it. 1) His decisions to run rather than pass could cost him a long career in the NFL and 2) he throws off-balance too much for my liking and will ultimately cost his team some critical interceptions. But then again, so did/does Brett Favre. Keep an eye on this guy no matter if he goes pro this year or next, 1st round or later. This is the type of guy the Rams should've waited on while building a dominating defense and special teams unit.

 

 

 

 

Ryan Mallett, Jr., 6-5, 238, Arkansas

 

Exceptional size and mechanics, with a large amount of upside potential. Excellent touch on the ball, decent to average accuracy but tremendous velocity when needed. Mainly a pure, traditional pocket-passer with marginal mobiltiy. Can make all the throws but at times strays away from the fundamentals and makes some questionable decisions. Needs additional help on his footwork. Passed for over 3200 yards in his sophomore season with Arkansas, for 30 TD's and just 7 INT's. Utilizes many weapons out of the Razorback offense and can hit the big play often, and the bulk of receiving corps were sophomores. Imagine him with some NFL wideouts at his disposal. The negative mark against him early on is being too anxious, which takes away from his accuracy. That will come with more game experience and maturity, but in the interim he is a solid QB with unlimited potential. If he turns it up a notch or two in 2010, an NFL team with a top QB coach would be crazy not to select him in the first-round next April.

 

 

 

 

 

Jake Locker Sr., 6-3, 226 Washington

 

When it comes time for the 2011 NFL Draft, it might be interesting to see if Jake Locker is even available. He may opt to go with the Los Angeles Angels baseball team, who has already signed him to a contract. It may have ultimately been the reason he decided to return for his senior season at Washington and could signal his intention to play pro baseball instead of football. Locker isn't the ultimate QB in terms of reading defenses and being able to pick them apart at their weakness. His progression reads need improvement and has only above average arm strength. He does have a quick delivery and knows what's happening around him while in the pocket. His 21-11 TD to INT ratio isn't glamorous, but it's steady. I'm going to go off on a bit of a strange tangent here for a moment.....and tell you where this guy could be playing at the NFL level - tight end. He's pretty elusive with decent speed and does well when he runs the ball. Could be a solid hybrid TE at the next level, but let's wait and see what he does in his final year for the Huskies.

 

 

 

 

Andrew Luck, SO., 6-4, 235 Stanford

 

I'm going to jump off the Luck bandwagon for the moment, but only as it relates to being drafted in the 2011 NFL draft. The kid is a phenom, but much too young and still a bit wet behind the ears to be an NFL QB at this point. Part of his success in his freshman season can be attributed to a strong running attack behind Toby Gearhart, and also the exceptional coaching from Jim Harbaugh. So I would suggest Luck use at least two more seasons of collegiate play and refine his already solid skills. The thing that jumps out at me when watching tape on Luck is his uncanny accuracy and delivery when rolling out of the pocket at almost a dead sprint. He does it as well as anyone I've seen and can also throw all the other passes with solid consistency.His footwork is good, lets the ball fly on time, has very good awareness while in the pocket and works hard off the field. Again, he needs some more game experience, especially as it relates to reading his progressions. More developmental time with coach Harbaugh would be good too, because he hasn't had to step up and be the team leader to this point. I would say that by the time the 2012 NFL Draft rolls around, he'd be a lock for a top 5 pick.

 

 

 

 

 

Pat Devlin, Sr., 6-4, 220, Delaware

 

Has the mechanics and the natural ability for the position. Arm strength is adequate but tends to throw the ball a little too high above the receiver, which could allow for tips/deflections and ultimately interceptions at the next level. Tough, durable and can make the short-to-intermediate passes, but not sure about the long ball. Transferred from Penn St. to Delaware and gave the Blue Hens some stability at QB after losing the talented Joe Flacco to the NFL.

 

 

 

 

 

Case Keenum, Sr., 6-2, 210 Houston

 

It's rather difficult to ignore a QB that has thrown for 40+ TD's in each of his last two collegiate seasons, while offering up only 26 picks in the same span of time. Of course, you'd like to see less of the INT's in that stat, but 88 touchdowns to just 26 picks is a ratio many players would take, no questions asked...not to mention the 6,000+ yards in passing. For Case Keenum, however, the question is, "Is this a top caliber QB with exceptional skills, or a perfect fit for the SYSTEM he is playing in at Houston?" Perhaps it's a little bit of both, but I am going to lean slightly to the latter. He's not big, just 6-2 (please don't jump to the Drew Brees comparisons) and all Keenum has done since arriving to Houston is lead them to "W's" while completing over 67% of all his passes through his collegiate career. His skill set is above average, utilizing his ability to scan defenses, move around if need be but also remain calm in the pocket. But again, much of that comes from the way Houston operates offensively in 4 and 5 receiver sets. He isn't under center much and his footwork isn't at a level the pro game demands. At this point I think Keenum would likely be a solid 3rd round pick and be a QB some NFL team would try to develop over time.

 

Reprinted with Permission from the Author

[CarolinaBill]

How about Nathan Enderle QB Idaho Vandals, 6-4 SR

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Terrelle Pryor isn't in his top ten.

 

Interesting.

 

I don't know if he should be or not but Pryor seems to be in everyone else's top ten.

[flomoe]

Terrelle Pryor isn't in his top ten.

 

Interesting.

 

I don't know if he should be or not but Pryor seems to be in everyone else's top ten.

 

 

I think Pryor's hype is because he plays for Ohio State. It seems every year, at least one player from that school gets overhyped by the media. There is a pretty long list of overhyped players that haven't done squat in the NFL. It's almost similar to the Florida WR thing. Pryor is a decent QB but tossing him into a Top 10 discussion is ridiculous. Top 50 maybe but there are a lot of smaller school QB's out there that make Pryor look like a joke. Kellen Moore from Boise didn't make the Top 10 and there are those in the Sporting News that think he is a legitmate Heisman candidate.

[Estro]

I'm a big fan of Mallett. Like his pocket presence and love his arm (good fit for Buffalo). I had the chance to breakdown Locker in 2 games of his, and I too came away much less impressed than expected. Not to say he's bad, I just don't buy into the hype at this point. He has a lot to prove in the passing game this season to be considered a 1st round QB IMO let alone the top pick overall.

 

That dude from A&M doesn't impress me at all. Haven't seen much of him at all, but his highlight film is less than impressive. Seems to make all of his throws off balance and gets very little velocity on the ball. He looks like a system QB to me.

[Huuuge Bills]

I like Luck the best out of all of them, but don't think he comes out. I think Locker could be a good NFL QB, but the possibility of him playing baseball scares me.

 

Ponder is interesting, but I want to watch a few Florida ST. games before I pass judgment on him.

 

Mallet would be a really interesting prospect, but his accuracy is so bad at times, I don't think I could pull the trigger on him.

 

Nick Foles is the only other QB prospect that I like out of the group, but want to see more of him as well.

[Hplarrm]

The thing that will interest me most about this list is which rounds these players will end up going in. I simply so not see the Bills being a QB away from winning it all as was the case when Pitts chose RoboQB in the first round. As such, I doubt they try to get their franchise QB in the first round of the draft since all in all though good players have to come from somewhere and thus good players get drafted, my analysis of past drafts show it to be a crapshoot in terms of whether a particular player is the RIGHT QB for this team.

 

I see the Bills trying to get a QB they judge capable of leading them to the SB through FA (which NO used in the last SB to get Brees and historically teams have found their franchise QB from QBs who failed elsewhere such as 1st round drafted but loser for the team which drafted him like Dilfer or two time loser Brad Johnson.

 

Even the other rare example of a team drafting a QB in the first who led them to an SB win, Peyton Manning took much longer than the media and a few vocal Bills fans will give the team time to develop the QB until he gets run out of town like Steve Young and Brett Favre were,

 

The best draft your franchise QB move in history was to find your franchise QB in the 6th round like Tom Brady rather than spending a big contract ona 1st round choice.

 

I think the sweet spot on your list will be to identify which of these QBs drops to the second day but is still a good enough player that they will hang around long enough to develop.