Bills - Seahawks Preview

[Rico]

'Hawks will lean on Alexander -- again

 

Why To Watch

The Bills are essentially resigned to playing the role of spoiler at this point and they'll have another opportunity to disrupt the NFC West apple cart against Seattle on Sunday. The only trouble is that the Bills will have to take their show on the road this week, where they are 0-4 on the season.

 

In order to break that streak and pull off the road upset, the team needs QB Drew Bledsoe to build on last week's three-touchdown performance and to better protect the football. Seattle coach Mike Holmgren will also be looking for QB Matt Hasselbeck to cut down on his turnovers in his return to the starting lineup after sitting out last week's game due to a leg injury. In fact, Bledsoe and Hasselbeck have thrown a combined 21 interceptions on the season. The quarterback who makes fewer mistakes will likely lead his team to victory in this game

 

When the Bills have the ball

Rushing:

The team that establishes a stronger running game and is able to limit its quarterback's potential for making mistakes should be the team that wins this game. The Bills have won four of their last six games and much of their success can be attributed to the emergence of RB Willis McGahee.

 

In those four wins, McGahee has averaged 28.3 carries for an average of 111.3 yards per game. He not only provides the offense with more size and speed at the position, but he also does a much better job of protecting the football than former starter Travis Henry. In fact, McGahee hasn't fumbled once in 162 carries this season.

 

The Bills will need to be patient on Sunday in order to penetrate a Seahawks run defense that is giving up just 104.2 yards per game on the ground. Rookie DT Marcus Tubbs has taken over as a starter in place of Rashad Moore, who has been bothered a bit by a lingering shoulder injury.

 

Regardless, the team continues to use a heavy "wave" at the position with Tubbs, Moore, Cedric Woodard and Rocky Bernard all seeing significant playing time, which is helping to keep everyone fresh late into games. The Seahawks' defensive line as a whole is playing with a lot of discipline and is doing a fine job of protecting MLB Orlando Huff and WLB Chad Brown. If the Seahawks continue to play the run well on Sunday they'll put the Bills' offense in a bad situation because the last thing Buffalo wants to do is to go airborne with Bledsoe.

 

Passing:

Ideally, the Bills would like to throw the ball fewer times than they run it. That formula was successful last week when they had 26 carries compared to just 24 passing attempts from Bledsoe. When the Bills do throw, protecting Bledsoe is paramount. Their offensive line has been inconsistent but has improved as the season has progressed in terms of communication and blitz pick-up.

 

The other big help recently has been the emergence of TE Mark Campbell as Bledsoe's security blanket over the middle. In the past Bledsoe hasn't had a reliable outlet when he's needed to dump the ball off quickly over the middle. Much like Ben Coates was for Bledsoe when he was in New England, Campbell has developed into a security blanket for the immobile quarterback to look for when the pocket is collapsing around him.

 

With DE Grant Wistrom back in the lineup, the Seahawks are beginning to get the pass rush pressure that they were getting early in the season. Wistrom's sack totals aren't impressive but the attention he draws and the consistent pressure that he gets helps to free others up and fluster opposing quarterbacks. Tubbs had a sack last week and the team is also getting help from situational pass rusher Antonio Cochran

 

Furthermore, with Wistrom getting more attention, it creates more blitzing lanes for defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes to exploit with linebackers and safeties on the blitz. If the Seahawks can build on their four-sack performance from last week they should be able to force Bledsoe into a couple of key mistakes. Also, with CBs Marcus Trufant and Ken Lucas on the perimeter and safeties Terreal Bierria and Michael Boulware working against Campbell, the Seahawks have the personnel to hold up in coverage so long as the pass rush gets to Bledsoe on a consistent enough basis.

 

When the Seahawks have the ball

Rushing:

Much like the Bills, Seattle must establish a strong running attack. With so much inconsistency in the passing game, Holmgren has shifted the emphasis to Shaun Alexander recently. Over the course of the last four games, Alexander has averaged 27.3 carries and 156.8 yards. His stamina has been critical to the Seahawks' success and his combination of size and speed allows him to wear down defenses as games progress.

 

The problem the Seahawks will face, however, is that Buffalo's run defense is actually stouter than their own. The Bills are also deep along their defensive line and are getting especially strong play from the right side with DT Pat Williams and DE Aaron Schobel. Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray employs an aggressive scheme that often relies on its cornerbacks to hold up on an island in coverage. That allows Gray to be as aggressive as he likes with SS Lawyer Milloy, who more often than not will line up as a fourth-linebacker on running downs.

 

With Milloy cutting off the backside it's very difficult for running backs to find cutback lanes, which is a strength of Alexander's. The Seahawks will need to be patient and rely on their big, physical offensive line to wear the Bills down as the game progresses. Seattle could take some shots downfield early in order to loosen the Bills' defense up a little bit, but it needs to stay dedicated to the run in order to win this game.

 

Passing:

Hasselbeck will return to the starting lineup after missing last week's game due to a leg injury. Hasselbeck should be close to 100 percent but there are still several concerns regarding the Seahawks' passing attack. For starters, WR Koren Robinson was benched last week due to inconsistent play and has been suspended by the NFL for four games. While he wasn't coming close to playing up to his potential, he was still valuable as a No. 3 receiver who could generate some mismatches.

 

TE Jerramy Stevens was also benched in favor of Itula Mili last week as a result of several critical errors in recent weeks. The good news, however, is that ROT Chris Terry will be back in the starting lineup after he was made inactive for last week's game for violating a team rule.

 

Darrell Jackson is the only receiver on Seattle's roster who is providing consistency right now. He'll need to be Hasselbeck's go-to-guy in his matchup against LCB Terrence McGee, as RCB Nate Clements should be able to take Jerry Rice out of the game one-on-one.

 

Furthermore, one of the Bills' biggest weaknesses on defense is their poor depth at cornerback. Without Robinson, the Seahawks will have to rely on Bobby Engram to create some mismatches from the slot position. Engram can be solid in the short-to-intermediate zones but he's not capable of providing the home run. With very little to worry about in terms of the deep ball, the Bills can continue to be aggressive with Milloy (three sacks last week) as a pass rusher and can afford to cheat FS Rashad Baker over the top of Jackson.

 

Scouts' Edge

Special teams can be the great equalizer and nobody in the league is better than the Bills in that department. The trio of Terrence McGee, Nate Clements and Jonathan Smith has combined for four touchdown returns and the Bills' kickoff coverage unit is No. 1 in the NFL.

 

By controlling the field position battle, establishing McGahee on the ground and continuing to get strong play from its defense, Buffalo will make things difficult on the Seahawks. In the end, however, Bledsoe's inability to protect the football combined with Seattle's strong commitment to its own running game will lead to the Bills ultimate demise - and their seventh consecutive road loss, dating back to last season.