folz
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27 minutes ago, Chaos said:
The lack of understanding of the difference between facts and opinions is a plague on the USA.
But, what is fact and what is fiction in the offseason, and who really knows for sure?
KC is obviously the easy choice to repeat (they are the current champs, they've beaten the Bills 3 times in the playoffs, etc.). You could have just started a thread saying, "I think KC will repeat as the AFC Super Bowl representative."
But, I don't think the Bills beating KC in the playoffs is some insurmountable goal.
And after KC, who do you have? The Bengals, the Ravens, the Texans, the Jets, the Dolphins, the Browns? Is it currently fact that any of those teams are better than the Bills? You can talk about their drafts or free agency or schedule, etc. But if you have any of them over the Bills, well, that is also still just opinion based on projections and speculations. It may turn out to be true, but it doesn't make it a fact right now.
Again, it's the offseason on a Bills website, and Josh Allen is still our QB, why wouldn't the first answer be "The Bills" for many here?
[I voted for the Bills. 👍]
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5 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:
I'll take the under. He's only topped 9 in a season once.
Josh has put up 8, 9, 8, 6, 7, and 15 rushing TDs by season.
This 👆...I was pretty much going to respond the same.
But, how crazy is it that over the last 6 years Josh Allen is #2 in the league in rushing TDs (that includes all RBs). King Henry far outshines everyone with 80 rushing TDs over the last 6 years, but Josh is actually 2nd with 53 rushing TDs. After Allen comes: James Conner (51), Zeke (49), Chubb (48), Josh Jacobs (46), Kamara (46), and D. Cook (45). I mean, wow.
P.S. He is already 2nd all-time for rushing TDs in a career by a QB, behind only Cam Newton. Josh needs 22 more rushing TDs to tie Cam for most ever by a QB. The over/under on that is what, three more seasons?
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In an interview a couple of weeks back, Beane was asked about how fans view certain players vs. how the team views those players. He said sometimes they are much more confident in the building about a player than the fans are. He used Spencer Brown and Terrell Bernard as examples from last year, and then used Connor moving to center as an example for this year. We may be nervous about the transition, but it seems that the team is not.
Also, I recently heard Connor say that center was his true position and he is excited about the move.
Who knows where he will rank by the end of the year, but I have a feeling it will work out. No question Morse was an excellent center, great leader, very good with his line calls, great rapport with Josh, etc. But he was never the most stout center up the middle either. McGovern is about 15 pounds heavier than Morse and six years younger. Hopefully, that will translate into a more secure pocket for Josh. Who knows, I guess we'll see. But I do expect Connor to hold off the rookie and man the center position this year.
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When you consider that 100 players averages to about 3 guys per team, it kind of makes sense. We probably got a couple of other guys that could be on the list, and I suspect next year we'll have a couple more guys on the list (Milano coming back, Bernard and Miller as possibilities, Kincaid maybe, or Oliver, Johnson, etc.). But right now, we don't have many household name guys; we have a lot of young guys, guys coming off of injury, some journeymen, etc. Plus, there are lots of teams in the league with 3 or more household name players (which of course does not mean that they are better overall teams though)...and I'm sure that certain positions (QB and WR, for example) are probably a bit over-represented because of the importance or visibility of those positions.
Plus, the transition-year label is real. For instance, 78 players were voted to the Pro Bowl last year (not counting special teams). There were 4 Bills: Josh Allen, Mitch Morse, Stefon Diggs, and Jordan Poyer. Well, Morse, Diggs, and Poyer are gone. This year's team will need to prove itself before making too many lists.
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On 6/21/2024 at 12:30 PM, Chaos said:
bills have never been a top 2 team in the McDermott era. They are very consistently 5 to 8.
I mean, yes, if you are going by the Super Bowl winner is the #1 team and the runner-up is the 2nd best team, then the Bills haven't been a top 2 team since 1994. But...
In 2020, they had a 13-3 record (tied for 2nd best in the league with Green Bay, behind only KC) and made it to the AFC Championship game. We lost to KC, who lost to Tampa. Green Bay had the same record as us, and lost to Tampa in the NFC Championship. So, I would say, we were at least tied with Green Bay for #3 in the league...by record, regular-season play, and the post-season.
In 2021, despite neither of their records being as good as they were in 2020, and the fact that they both lost in the playoffs prior to the Super Bowl, you can not convince me that Kansas City and Buffalo weren't clearly the two best teams in the league that season (KC was tied for 2nd in regular season wins, and the Bills were tied for 3rd that season). I mean, in hindsight, you could say Cinci had both KC and the Bills number, so maybe the Bills would have lost to the Bengals too---but I'm not so sure they would have that season (even though Cinci beat KC). And honestly, despite winning it all, were the Rams really a better team that KC or Buffalo that season? Still, yes, by post-season results alone, you could say Buffalo was 5th or 6th in the league that year. But, now hear that in your head and then remember back to that season. Does it really ring true that there were 4-5 teams better than the Bills that year?
2022, the Bills had the 2nd best regular season record that year at 13-3 (behind only KC and Philly). we lost to Cincinnati in the divisional round (post the whole Damar Hamlin incident). So, again, by post-season record alone, you could say the Bills finished 5th. I would say they were really third or fourth (behind KC, Philly, Cinci). Though if the Damar Hamlin incident didn't happen, who knows...maybe we beat Cincinnati in the regular season and things play out completely differently.
2023, Bills were tied for 3rd in regular-season wins with 11 (4 teams had a better regular-season record). Again, by post-season alone, the Bills would probably slot in again, around 5-6. But I still think we were better than even Baltimore, Green Bay, or Tampa last year? We made a hell of a stretch run with a severely depleted squad. I'd rank us as #4 last year, behind only KC, SF, and Detroit.
So, let's sum up the Bills rankings over the last 4 years (from my perspective):
Regular season (wins) Post-season results My perception of where they actually ranked (talent/play-wise)
2nd 3rd 3rd
3rd 5th 2nd
2nd 5th 3rd/4th
3rd 5th 4th
Since my post denoted the last 4 years of the McDermott era only, I feel pretty confident in my 2nd-5th best team in the league statement. I think I am closer with that than saying 5-8. I guess maybe you would have been more comfortable if I had said 3-5? I'm fine with that. I just still believe KC and Buffalo were the two best teams in 2021.
But, if you wanted to take a negative spin, I will show the complete ranges (for regular season records---including ties; and not saying the Bills were better than the other playoff teams who lost in the same round).
Regular season (wins) Post-season results
2nd-3rd 3rd-4th
6th-7th 5th-8th
3rd-5th 5th-8th
4th-9th 5th-8th
That would prove the 5-8 range better, but honestly, look back at the last 4 seasons. Were there really 5-7 teams better than the Bills in each of those years (from an overall perspective, not just post-season results)? Are you telling me that the 2021 Titans, Bucs, and Packers were better than the Bills that year? Were the Jags, Cowboys, and Giants better than the Bills in 2022? Were the Texans, Packers, and Bucs better teams than the Bills last year? I think most people (even non-Bills fans) would say the Bills have been a top 5 team the last 4 years, as opposed to a top 6-10 team.
Just FYI: In the last four years, the Bills are second in scoring (only 11 points behind #1 Dallas, and 70 points ahead of the #3 Chiefs), and they are #1 in points allowed on defense (27 points ahead of #2 Baltimore and 69 points ahead of #3 San Fran). So, by points scored and surrendered, over the last 4 years, the Bills are #1 defense and #2 offense. Over the last 5 years, they have the best point differential in the league (33 points ahead of #2 Baltimore, and 101 points ahead of #3 San Fran). Kind of hard to say they haven't been a top 5 team, imo.
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On 6/18/2024 at 9:18 AM, TheWeatherMan said:
Week 1 vs Cards: W vs a rebuilding team
Week 2 @ Phins: W - thankfully this is a night game! Miami’s D looks suspect. High scoring affair, but JA takes the Phins to the woodshed once more.
Week 3 vs Jags: W - Bills get redemption for the BS London screw job game.
Week 4 @ Baltimore: W - The Bills defense always plays well against LJ. JA shows the league who the true MVP is.Week 5 @ Houston: L - Houston’s offense is just too much for the Bills D and the lack of edge pressure. This is a one score loss but frustrating to see the Bills lose to such a young team.
Week 6 @ Jets: L - Back to back to back AFC away games. Jets D has the Bills number but the D keeps it close turning over Rodgers multiple times. Another 1 score loss for the Bills.Week 7 vs Titans: W - Titans young and inexperienced roster can keep pace with the Bills. This is the first blowout victory of the year.
Week 8 @ Seahawks: W - Tough traveling to the West Coast but the Bills pull this one out with a 10 point victory.
Week 9 vs Phins: W - Bills sweep the dolphins. This is a offensive battle but the Bills D proves superior to the Phins.Week 10 @ Colts: W - Again, the weaknesses of another young inexperienced team is exploited by JA. 10 point victory!
Week 11 vs Chiefs: L - Bills pas rush can’t get to Mahomes who carves the Bills D up. A close game here, but Chiefs come away with a 6 point victory.
Week 13 vs 49ers: L - Bills D has no answer for McCaffrey and the the 9ers dink and dunk the Bills all night. 10 point loss, the first and only double digit loss of the season .Week 14 @ Rams: W - Another offensive showdown but Rams can’t keep pace. Close game, Bills win by 5.
Week 15 @ Lions: L - Bills play a good chunk of the dome teams on the road this year. Josh usually plays great indoors but the Lions are just too good on Offense to keep pace. Bills lose by 9.Week 16 @ Patriots: W - Pats suck…17 point win.
Week 17 vs Jets: L - Jets D smothers Bills in the midst of a blustery winter storm. 10-7 Jets.
Week 18 vs Patriots: W - Pats still suck. Bills help the Cheats clinch a top 3 draft pick with a blowout loss 35-7.
Record: 11-6, 7th best in the NFL behind 49ers, Chiefs, Lions, Houston, Ravens and Jets (11-6 but take H2H).
I don't mind the record you predicted, but losing 3 of 4 to the 4 best teams we play (when Josh gets up for big games)? And getting swept by the Jets? YUCK! If you think the Jets are one of the best teams we will play, then that would be a 1-5 record against good teams? If that's how they get to 11-6 and the playoffs, not sure I will have any confidence in the team to advance in the post-season.
On 6/18/2024 at 10:28 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:Off the top of my head. I dropped the Jets out of the top 10 even though they have a top 5 roster. Too much drama.
1 Chiefs
2 Lions
3 49ers
4 Ravens
5 Browns
6 Dolphins
7 Texans
8 Cowboys
9 Bills
10 Eagles
YIKES!
When the Pats or KC or whomever is on top, it is always said until you prove you can beat them...
Yes, the Bills have a good number of question marks with the turnover...but a lot of those other teams have question marks as well. The Bills have been a top 2-5 team for the last 4 seasons. Until someone proves otherwise, that's where I have them (with only KC and SF currently ahead of them, and maybe even with Detroit).
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Players:
Marcel Dareus
Marshawn Lynch
Jason Peters
Stephone Gilmore
Honorable mentions: Jarius Byrd, Mike Williams, Sammy Watkins
Coaches:
Doug Marrone
Gregg Williams
Hank Bullough/Kay Stevenson
Mike Mularkey
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15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
It's not lazy.
And you're spinning like crazy.
Yes, if you go to other stats, Josh is crazy good. Overall, that's what he is, he's crazy good. Game-changing plays, whatever. He's fantastic.
But that doesn't mean he didn't have too many INTs the last year or two. Most particularly last year.
You don't want to have an INT % much over 2.0. Josh last year had a 3.1%. Way too high. Third-highest percentage in the league. Yes, a few others were too high also. But that doesn't make Josh being even higher than the guys you mentioned any more acceptable.
Josh was 3.1%. Much too high. Tua was 2.5%. Purdy too. Still too high, but not nearly as bad. Mahomes was 2.3%, still a bit high, but awful.
It was a problem. Josh admits it.
No question Josh needs to reduce his turnovers, and I think he should be able to do that this year (at least a bit). Last year he dealt with the changing of his OC mid-season, players with low catch percentages, and whatever was going on with Stefon (disappearing in the last 10 games of the season). In his first 5 years, he averaged 16 turnovers per season. Last year he had 22. I think he can bring that number down again.
Look, we all want to see Josh improve on that, but that is not the point of the debate. The issue is that people are using his interception numbers to try and say he isn't that great, or not in Mahomes Category at least, or whatever ax they have to grind.
And yes, interception percentage is one stat, but more often, it seems people use TD/INT ratio as a bigger indicator. And over the last 5 years, only Rodgers (with a crazy 5.6 to 1 ratio), Brady (3.4 to 1), Mahomes (3.3 to 1), and Hurts (3.2 to 1) had a better ratio than Josh at 3.05 to 1.
But, we also have to factor in that interceptions do not equal the same amount of points that TDs do (because the opposing team does not score a TD after every turnover). The following article shows (via 4 or 5 different groups that tried to figure out how many points a turnover equates to) that a turnover generally averages to a 4-point swing (or each turnover would be -4 points for a QB).
So, if we compare points off TDs vs. points off turnovers (on average), here are the top 15 QBs with the most plus points over the last 5 years (subtracting their INTs at 4 points each from their TDs). [Also, I prorated the following QBs who only played 4 of those years to a 5th year---Rodgers, Brady, Prescott, Stafford, Herbert, Hurts, and Burrow).
Allen 990+ points
Rodgers 928+
Herbert 883+
Mahomes 877+
Brady 833+
Prescott 799+
Hurts 775+
Burrow 751+
Goff 728+
Carr 714+
Jackson 700+
Cousins 677+
Murray 670+
Wilson 667+
Stafford 663+
Despite the interceptions, Josh is still outscoring everyone. Now, this is on interceptions only, if you add fumbles, it will change a bit. I'm not going to go into everyone's numbers, but if we include fumbles for a few of the top guys, it looks like this:
Rodgers +878 points
Allen +786
Herbert +778
Mahomes +769
Brady +748
Burrow +641
Jackson +536
So, even with fumbles, only Aaron Rodgers has scored more than Josh over the last 5 years after factoring in -4 for each turnover (INTs and fumbles). So, of course turnovers hurt and Josh needs to clean some of that up. But, when you include TD totals (and don't look at the turnovers in a vacuum), he is still outperforming almost every QB in the league as far as scoring points.
[Obviously these numbers aren't exact, as I am pro-rating some players to a 5th year, and I didn't add up every QBs game totals, but went by seasons---for instance, Patrick Mahomes has played two fewer games than Josh over the last 5 years...but I think it still makes the point.]
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Keon "he ain't no Deion" Coleman
Keon is so slow...'How slow is he?'...he's so slow that they used an hour glass to time his 40.
Keon is so slow that it takes him two hours to watch "60 Minutes".
Keon is so slow, they won't let him use the express lane at Wegman's.
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I'm a little late to this party, so I'm just going to throw in a couple of random thoughts/arguments I had reading the thread.
First of all, for all of those posters sick of people using Reid as some sort of comparison, it is just as annoying for posters to keep saying we should have multiple Super Bowls or be in the Super Bowl every other year at least just because we have Josh Allen. And since we haven't been, it means McDermott sucks or can/will never get over the hump.
HOF Dan Marino, HOF Jim Kelly, HOF Fran Tarkenton, HOF Warren Moon, HOF Dan Fouts, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Steve McNair, Matt Ryan = 0 Super Bowls
(future HOF) Aaron Rodgers, (future HOF) Drew Brees, HOF Brett Favre = 1 Super Bowl each (You could actually kind of add HOF Peyton Manning to this list as he was dragged along to his 2nd Super Bowl)
So, let's just look at the current or soon-to-be HOFers on those lists. That is 9 Hall of Fame quarterbacks (four of which, at least, you could argue as Top Five All-Time QBs). Combined, they played 154 seasons of NFL football and yet have just 4 Super Bowl rings between them. That's 150 seasons with no rings for these HOF QBs.
Just having a great QB does not guarantee Super Bowls.
Now you could counter by saying, yeah, well if they didn't have good coaches, it's the same thing as the Bills situation. But in case you forgot, here is a the list of their head coaches: HOF Don Shula, HOF Marv Levy, HOF Bud Grant, HOF Don Coryell, HOF Tony Dungy, Mike Holmgren, Sean Payton
Winning a Super Bowl is not as easy as some of you guys think. Just because you have an elite QB, does not guarantee Super Bowls, even with a HOF coach. There are so many factors to a football team and how their season plays out, plus lady luck (in regards to injuries, lucky bounces of the ball, etc.). There is context to every situation.
And second, as far as getting over the KC hump, yes, we lost to them three times, but I don't see beating them in the playoffs as some insurmountable task. This is the way I kind of look at the three playoff games vs. the Chiefs:
2020: Bills first real taste/test in playoffs, KC was just the better and more seasoned team (both players and coaches); Beasley on a broken foot, and a bad knee; Diggs with an oblique injury; and the refs allowed the KC DBs to hold and manhandle our receivers all game long (just rewatch how unbalanced it was officiating-wise, now some of that too could just be a little lack of playoff experience and knowing that the refs let more go in the playoffs---but it was pretty bad on the refs part, imo). Not saying we would have won otherwise, just another factor. But, the Bills just weren't ready yet for a playoff-seasoned KC team as an up-and-coming team.
2021: The infamous 13 seconds. One of the greatest playoff games ever played. Let's face it, whoever had the ball last was going to win that game...both defenses were gassed and had been gashed all game. Those two offenses that year were just perfection. Yes, you can blame coaching all you want, but it's on the players too. And what if we won the coin toss? What if he missed the 48-yard FG? Etc. Plus, you can question coaching decisions for every single team that lost a playoff game in the history of the NFL. Sometimes things just happen. How many playoff miracles are there, where the losing coach gets blamed? Lots. And how many NFL coaches post-1960 are perfect in the playoffs (have no losses that can be questioned)---Zero. Reid was blamed in Philly for bad game mangement and every one of his losses was questioned. Time to get over 13 seconds, it happened, and it's in the past. But this game was obviously a complete toss-up as far as the argument of us "getting over the KC hump" goes.
2024: Bills injuries: No Matt Milano, No Jordan Phillips, No Tre White, Taylor Rapp (out), Christian Benford (out), Terrell Bernard (out), Baylon Spector (out), Poona Ford (out), T. Johnson (playing after concussion the week before), Rasul Douglas playing through a knee injury, Gabe Davis (out), Sam Martin punting with a bum hamstring, it was only Micah Hyde's 2nd game back after being out all season, it was Daquan's 4th game back after being out 10 weeks, and whatever the heck was going on with Stefon (whether it was injury or he just quit on the team---21 yards and no TDs on 8 targets with a fumble).
And we only lost by 3? That seems more like a plus for coaching rather than a minus, even though it still sure sucked to lose.
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41 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:
3. **Mitch Morse** - The Bills took an aging but still effective piece out of the starting 5 of the offensive line. They effectively replaced him either with Edwards moving from depth piece to starting guard or with an early 5th round pick, SVPG. I do have confidence that SVPG can take the starting spot, but it is a lot to ask of a 5th round pick to come in and take the starting center spot. Edwards was a competent starting guard on the Rams for a couple of seasons, including their Super Bowl run. So Edwards is not the worst option there.Of course, you can't always believe what a GM says at this time of year, but in the Beane interview for the Athletic last week, the interviewer asked him about the difference between how a player is seen by the media and fans vs. how they are viewed in the building. He brought up Spencer Brown and Terrell Bernard from last season. A lot of fans and media didn't think they could step up, but in the building they had confidence in those players. Regarding that, in relation to this year's team, he mentioned Connor McGovern moving to center.
So, at least at the moment, I do think they are planning to have McGovern at center (unless Van Pran Granger can come in and steal the spot from him).
As far as Clapp goes, in his first 5 years, he had 10 starts at center. Last year he had 11 starts at center for the Chargers (starting in game 4 due to their starting center having a season-ending health issue). He then got a knee injury in week 15 that ended his season. Not sure how well he played for the Chargers in those games.
The guys that write these articles don't have time to dig into each team too deeply, he looked at the roster and saw Clapp was the only player with a center designation (besides the rookie) and went with that. But I do think it is McGovern vs VPG for center, with Clapp just being Beane hedging his bets.
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18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Are you drunk?
You are trying to point out that mistakes happen.........but that because Beane has "done more good than bad" as a GM that his WR decisions shouldn't be questioned?
What?
His WR choices were to trust that Robert Foster, Gabe Davis, Lil Dummy, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty were all ready for much bigger roles. None of them were. And Dawson Knox failed to elevate his game despite great expectations as well. He's 0 for forever in what he is apparently expecting of Khalil Shakir.
This after the disasters of 2017 and 2018 with Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin and flyers on pedigree and past success like Corey Coleman, Jeremy Kerley, Terrelle Pryor etc..
Beane's few starter successes at WR have come when he acquired Diggs, Brown and Beasley.........players all proven in starting roles, still consistent and fairly young.
Those were players who projected to play well.........and whaddya know........they played well.
That's what I would trust.
Literally every flyer he's taken on a WR has FAILED........including Jamison Crowder.
But we are to TRUST that guys like MVS and Chase Claypool or KJ Hamler or Andy Isabella are going to bounce back when none of those players I mentioned did?
GTFOH
To be fair, Crowder broke his leg in what game 3 or 4? Can't really pin that on Beane. We have no idea how Crowder would have worked out if he stayed healthy. And he was a good choice at the time to replace Beasley (Crowder was a very good slot player).
Look, I understand and agree with the argument that outside of getting Diggs, Beasley, and Brown, Beane's track record with WRs has not been good over his tenure in Buffalo and there were times that he should have put more investment there. But there are also some reasons for it too. The first two years he was here, he was rebuilding an entire team and obviously focused on getting his QB first (which took a lot of resources). Do you know how many pre-McDermott starters were still on the roster in 2019? ZERO. He couldn't just focus on WRs. Plus, the team was in cap trouble after Whaley left (so they didn't have many resources) and no FA players wanted to come to Buffalo.
There is context to everything and every move. It's easy to say just trade for Aiyuk or anyone else, but the reality of availability, compensation, how it affects the rest of the team-building, the cap, etc. all matters. I think where we go wrong is when either side of the argument goes to the extremes---like the Crowder example above, or acting like Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox were busts. No, they didn't elevate their games to where we hoped, but...
Gabe Davis 3,204 yards and 33 TDs (over 4 years)
Dawson Knox 3,241 yards and 28 TDs (over 5years). His yardage total for a TE is not top end, but he does have more TDs than all but 4 TEs over the last 5 years (Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, by a good bit, and TJ Hockenson has 1 more TD than Knox).
It was obviously time to move on from Gabe, but that is a lot of production still for a 4th round WR, and Knox didn't become a top TE, but by no means a bust for a 3rd rounder.
You guys may think that we are crazy for thinking we might be ok at WR, and not dinging Beane for making a bigger move (to be fair, when they traded Diggs, I thought a bigger move at WR was coming too---I was thinking he might sell out in the draft to go up and get one of the top guys, but kind of glad he didn't). But I think it is just as strange to think that getting a safety wasn't important, when we just lost two All-Pro safeties and that position is extremely important to McD's defense. And even the backup 3T DT and RB #2 will get way more playing time (probably like 35-40% snap count this season) than another 3rd to 5th round WR would have. You can't go all out at one position and ignore others, imo.
I'm not saying Beane is perfect or never makes mistakes, or maybe even, doesn't have weaknesses at scouting particular positions, but I just come from a point of trying to understand why they made the decisions they did and trying to see how it could work, rather than assuming they got it wrong and it will fail. They know what offense Brady is installing, they know the direction they want to take the team, they understand all of the salaries and cap ramifications, etc., they've scouted all of the players. We all have our own opinions, of course, and I definitely don't agree with every move they make---but it's not unrealistic or Homerism to at least understand why they did what they did and want to see it play out first (yes, with some optimism).
Believe me, I understand the concern about the wide receivers, there is still just a lot of projection right now and no true #1---obviously they want Kincaid to fill that role. None of us knows how Coleman will be yet. Can Kincaid and Shakir step into bigger roles? Can Samuel play well and be that solid #2 or #3 in targets/receptions? Can MVS avoid the drops? Can Claypool or Hamler revive their careers? I don't think you guys are crazy for having concerns---I don't know, I just have a gut feeling that this time it will work out (maybe because I am not down on the Coleman pick, I really like Samuel as a player, and I do think Kincaid and Shakir can step up, with how the end of last season played out---but I get it, we've been burned before by guys not taking it to the next level). But, as I keep saying, what we did at least do in the WR room was get bigger, faster, better hands, and better red zone players than we had last year, and that can't all be bad.
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2 hours ago, Logic said:
In a league where passing is emphasized and in which the rules are set up to encourage its success...
The most important thing to do is get a quarterback.
The next most important thing to do is protect him so he stays upright and healthy.
The third most important thing to do is to get him some good players to throw the ball to.
The Bills have indisputably achieved goal #1. They seem quite likely to have achieved goal #2. I am uncertain that they have fully achieved goal #3, but I fear they may not have. Others are optimistic that they have done so.
We can argue all day about TEs vs WRs, having one or two elite options vs having a grab bag of different skillsets, etc, but at the end of the day, the proof will be in the pudding. There will once again come a moment in the playoffs where the Bills need offensive players OTHER than Josh Allen to step up. Will anyone be ready to answer the call? Tight end, running back, receiver, I personally don't really care. I just want 2024 not to be "The Solo Josh Allen Show: Remix". I'm sick of that show.
Time will tell if Beane has gone about the building of the offense correctly and to sufficient effect. I am less optimistic than others, but we'll all see soon enough.
**Edit: And before anyone says it: Yes, it would be REALLY nice if some defensive guys started stepping up, too. All the offensive firepower in the world won't do a thing if our defense can't learn to stop a nosebleed in the playoffs.**Nice post Logic. I'm on the more optimistic spectrum, but can also understand those who worry that we haven't done enough. Right now there is a lot of projection still. And, as you said, either side, we have to wait and see what happens.
But, with the bolded statement above, and knowing that Diggs has been lackluster in the playoffs the last few years, I just thought I would look at a few playoff numbers to kind of see who might be able to step up in the playoffs (with what we have). Obviously Coleman as a rookie, and Samuel whose teams never made the playoffs, can't be weighed in to the conversation yet.
Playoff stats
Shakir 15 of 19 for 166 yards and 2 TDs (2 playoff years, 4 games)
Kincaid 8 of 11 for 104 yards and 1 TD (1 playoff year, 2 games)
MVS 15 of 24 for 250 yards and 3 TDs (last 2 playoff years, 7 games)
Claypool 8 of 14 for 84 yards and 2 TDs (2 playoff years, 2 games)
Diggs 27 of 46 for 289 yards and 0 TDs (last 3 playoff years, 6 games---yes, we all know Diggs had a great 2020 playoffs, but that was almost 4 years ago now).
So, let's look at their playoff catch percentages, yards per reception, yards per game, and TDs per game for all of them for the playoffs games noted above:
catch % yards/rec Yards/game TDs/game
Shakir 78.9% 8.7 83 1
Kincaid 72.7% 9.5 52 0.5
MVS 62.5% 10.4 36 0.43
Diggs 58.7% 6.3 48 0
Claypool 57.1% 6.0 42 1
The one caveat, of course, is that Diggs probably commanded more defensive attention than the rest did in those games, but he was also a #1 WR and should still be able to get his numbers (other #1s do).
And we know Gabe had 2 monster playoff games, but that was out of a possible 9 playoff games (two of which he was injured for). He had two other decent games (one with 85 yards and the second with 41 yards and a TD). But that still leaves 5 no-show playoff games for Gabe.
So, imo, there is a very good possibility that the current cast will outperform the old cast in the playoffs (especially when you include Coleman and Samuel to the mix and project more targets to Kincaid and Shakir). And obviously, it is not even worth discussing guys like Harty, Sherfield, McKenzie, etc. when it comes to getting anything done in the playoffs.
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On 6/1/2024 at 10:43 AM, FireChans said:
How many teams win without a top 32 receiver?
On 6/1/2024 at 11:39 AM, FireChans said:Do they have a guy on the roster who has ever been 32nd or better in receiving yards ever in their career? You believe in results, show me the results, not hopes and prayers.
On 6/1/2024 at 12:07 PM, FireChans said:Samuel was 33 in 2020. But yes Claypool was 31 and sneaks in. You are right.
The original discussion was a top 32 receiver. If you subtract TEs and go with just receivers, then Claypool was 29th in 2020 and 31st in 2021, and Samuel was 31st in 2020. But that's just nit-picking and granted, it was a while ago for both of them. But, it at least shows that they have the ability to do it.
Over the last 5 years, the 32nd WR in yards in the NFL has averaged: 67 receptions for 848 yards and 5 TDs.
Last year, Shakir had 39 receptions for 611 yards and 2 TDs. If you prorate his receptions up to the average of the 32nd WR (67 receptions), Shakir would have 67 receptions for 1,050 yards and 3.5 TDs. Now prorating stats is not a predictor, of course, but having a more focal point in the offense from the start of the season and all of the targets left by Diggs and Davis, might not Khalil be able to add 237 yards (that's 14 yards/game) and a couple of TDs over the season? For the first 7 games last year, he only averaged a 26% snap count---his snap count for the entire season ended up being 52%. He only saw 5 total targets in the first 6 games last year. He'll see a lot more playing time this year. And he had an 86.7% catch percentage last season (that's pretty impressive).
And with Kincaid most likely being the #1 target this year (and again, from the start of the season, and all the free targets), do you not think that he can add 175 yards (that's 10 yards/game) and 3 TDs to his totals from last year? With those meager improvements in stats from Shakir and Kincaid, we would have two top 32 receiving yard players---without even discussing the opportunities for Coleman, Samuel, and Claypool. Now, I'm not saying you don't want better than say your top two targets at 31st and 32nd in yards, just pointing out that it wouldn't take much to at least be at that level.
And, just FYI, over the last 10 games of last season:
Diggs and Davis combined for 734 yards and 3 TDs on a 78.8% snap count (Diggs averaged 42 yards/game and had only 1 TD over the last 10 games-including playoffs---it's not like he was playing like a #1 receiver last year).
Shakir and Kincaid combined for 900 yards and 5 TDs on a 61.5% snap count
And just to see what it would take for Kincaid to not just take another step, but actually be a top TE (what he has to shoot for):
Over the last 5 years, the top three TEs in the league averaged 91 receptions for 1,089 yards and 6 TDs.
Dalton had 73 receptions for 673 yards and 2 TDs. Can we expect an extra 400 yards (that would be a jump from 40 yards/game to about 64 yards/game on average) and 4 more TDs from him? Hopefully, at least at some point---doesn't seem outrageous, but, yes, it still remains to be seen. Now, if he could just up his yards/reception from 9.2 last year to about 12 this year (and add 4 more TDs across the season), he would be in the elite TE range. And I think the low yards/reception was more about the Bills offense last year, rather than any flaw with Kincaid.
I could be wrong again about the overall receiving corps (I did think we would be fine last year---at least Samuel, Claypool, MVS, Hollins are more proven in the league than Harty and Sherfield were). But I have a lot of confidence in Kincaid and Shakir after last season. I have always liked Samuel as a player and we'll finally see him with a top QB. I like the talk about Claypool at this point, but not "counting" on him by any means yet. And Knox is a pretty darn good TE #2. So, I think a lot is riding on Coleman. If he can come in and contribute solidly this year (not as a #1, but maybe #3 or #4 in targets/receptions), I think we'll be really solid actually. If he's not ready this season (there doesn't seem to be any indications of that, at least yet), and Claypool and MVS don't pan out either, then yes, we could be very thin. But, even though there is no apparent/proven elite playmaker in the receiving corps, we did get bigger, stronger, faster, better hands, better red zone targets...so it's not all bad.
I wonder if a lot of this discussion really resides on how confident someone feels about Coleman as a player/pick at this point. People wanted a high draft pick WR---Keon was pick #33. The Bills obviously liked him more than 3 of the guys drafted above him (Worthy, Pearsall, Legette). The only other realistic option was to go up and get Brian Thompson Jr. If the Bills had done that would that have made a difference for people in any way? Or did it have to be a true #1 veteran WR? But then, those aren't easy to come by either. I mean, when Gabriel Davis got the second best WR FA contract...
I'm just not sure how much else the Bills could have realistically done this year. I don't think you sell out that big in the draft for a top-3 WR, we didn't have a ton of cap space, and if you want to trade for someone, first you actually need a partner, and then you need the money and compensation. And with the way the end of last year played out (and his lack of production in the playoffs), I actually think Diggs was addition by subtraction at this stage.
Basically, through trade or FA, the only actual proven #1 WRs that were available to this point were: Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, and Diontae Johnson. Not sure that Ridley and Johnson fit the Bills DNA for a start, and Allen is 32 years old and was carrying a 23.1 million cap hit for 2024. And with a lot of the other available guys (Jeudy, Mooney, Moore, etc.), you would be projecting just as much with them as you would be with Shakir or Samuel, imo. Or, basically, it wouldn't be a guarantee that they would be better than what we already have to put us over the top or whatever.
Am I looking through rose-colored, homer glasses? Maybe, but I don't know, I have a good feeling about this group as it currently stands, especially in lieu of the limitations the team had putting the group together.
Plus, it will be a different offense than we ran the last few years. I believe (just my opinion) they are going for a more ball-control offense, probably like a 54/46 run/pass ratio. Look, the way defenses have tried to stop Josh is with cover zero and to make him be patient marching the ball down the field on long drives (don't give up the big pass plays). The only way to open that up is with the run game and underneath passes. With a better run game and a more old-New England style pass game, we will force teams out of that defense, or we'll just march down the field on them in small chunks. The skill players we have now are much more suited to that style of play. And with a better run game, you aren't asking Josh to put everything on his back (either as a runner or in the pass game).
15 hours ago, FireChans said:The biggest problem for most fans who won’t stop complaining about this is that in a super deep WR draft that was filled with need picks by the Bills, the Bills didn’t feel like they needed a 2nd WR over a 2nd RB or a safety or a 2nd 3T.
We just lost two All-Pro safeties. Are you really saying adding another WR (after Coleman had already been picked) was more important than adding a safety that should be able to start early?
With the way the Bills rotate the D-line, that 2nd 3T will probably see around a 45% snap count this year (basically a co-starter).
Maybe you could say a RB wasn't needed, but hopefully Ray Davis will prove you wrong there. Again, if he is on the field like 30-40% this year, that's important snaps, and as I said I believe there will be a bigger focus on the running attack this year. Were you really sold with Ty Johnson as your #2 RB?
All three of those players will see WAY more playing time than a 3rd or 4th round WR would (unless that pick was so good that as a rookie he could beat out all but one or two of Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Claypool, MVS, Hollins). Honestly, what is the likelihood of that? Yes, it was a deep WR class, but we are talking about the 12th WR in the draft (instead of Cole Bishop), the 17th WR in the draft (for Carter), or the 22nd WR (instead of Ray Davis). How deep is deep? There is no guarantee that those players would help much this year. To put a face to it, the next WR picked after each of those Bills picked were Malachi Corley (western Kentucky), Luke Mcaffrey (Rice), and Jacob Cowing (Arizona).
I know people hate long posts...sorry...and thanks if you actually read the whole thing.
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Great Interview. The guy from the Athletic seemed very knowledgeable and asked great questions. And Brandon was excellent as always, open and honest (as he can be), personable, etc. Despite his miscues (which they discuss briefly), there is no question in my mind that he is a top GM in the league and that we are lucky to have him.
In regards to Diggs, Brandon said "I'm not going to get into all of the reasons why..." (I assume meaning Stefon's play and/or disgruntlement) "So, I'll explain it from a cap perspective."
So, he wasn't blaming the cap for getting rid of Stefon, he was just explaining why they decided to eat the money this year. Basically, they knew they wanted to make that decision and then he is explaining how they thought about the money aspect of it (can we pull it off and eat the money this year? How will it affect the rest of the roster this year and next, etc.).
Loved the question about the difference between how the fans feel about particular players vs. how they are viewed in the building. He used Spencer Brown and Terrell Bernard as examples from last year. He brought up Connor McGovern moving to center this year
I think he also kind of feels that about the WR room this year. He thinks Claypool can play outside. Thinks Shakir and Samuel are almost position-less, so Brady can create different packages (even splitting Cook outside, or Samuel in the backfield, etc.) that when the offense comes to the huddle, the defense doesn't know who is playing what position, and he thinks with that and their versatility, Brady can create a lot of mismatches. Plus, Kincaid and Knox will be a big part of the passing game---referencing KC and Kelce---sounds like he does expect the offense to revolve around Kincaid as the #1 target.
Interesting that the only WRs he didn't mention (other than the UFAs) were Justin Shorter and Andy Isabella. After the top three guys (Shakir, Samuel, Coleman), sounds like he is high on Claypool and Hollins. Then MVS is in the mix. Hamler sounds like a long shot (and dependent on health)---but you can see his speed on the field. He just mentioned Shavers as another big body they have.
I also found it interesting when talking about letting players go and can the guy behind him step up (both their play and leadership-wise), he said:
"We think there are more guys in the wings, with the right opportunity, do they have to do it, do they have to prove it on the field like Terrell did a year ago? Yes. So, some of that can be a little uneasy for people, definitely for fans on the outside, but there can even be uneasiness in the building, like, maybe not everyone is sold on this player."
Again, I just like the honesty and kind of knowing that, as a whole, the FO/staff are never complacent and at least some people may be raising the same concerns as we fans have to discuss (not that the higher-ups---Brandon and Sean---haven't probably already thought of those concerns).
He wants to compete for a championship every year they have Josh. This is not a rebuild year and he never wants to have a rebuild year. It is a retooling and a youth movement and he still believes they can compete for the division and a championship this season.
Lots of good stuff.
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I hadn't really heard anyone talk about it as if they think it is actually a tactic used by Josh or the team. It just seems like the few times it happened last year (and maybe again when talking about Josh's candidacy for MVP), there were discussions about those picks not really affecting the outcome of those games (so not dinging Josh too much for it), because it was as good as a punt. Yes, it is a post-game rationalization, but it is also true. I think Josh, in that moment, is still hoping to make that connection (he's not just giving it away to the other team), but because of the situation they are in, etc., he may be ok to let that one fly deep, because if it is intercepted, it doesn't really hurt too much (as long as there isn't a long return). So, it's not saying erase those interceptions from Josh's stats, they don't count because he meant to do it, it is just that they don't add up to make me over worry that Josh has an interception problem.
First of all, there were a number of weird tips/great defensive plays against Josh this year (plays that 90% of the time end with the ball harmlessly hitting the turf). Seemed like the opposing players had better hands than some of our receivers last year.
Secondly, Josh didn't throw any 4th quarter interceptions last season. And in the 6 losses last year (over which Josh averaged 1.5 INTs/game), there was only one game---opening day vs. the Jets---that Josh (despite the INTs) didn't still have the team in position to win the game (the Bills were winning in the 4th quarter and the defense allowed a late score to the opponent).
Plus there were other factors last year that might allow for improvement this year:
Two OCs/changing OCs mid-season; Dorsey not doing a great job as OC over more than the first half of the season; Stefon being disgruntled/crack in their relationship; Pass catchers without great hands (Davis, Sherfield, and even Stefon down the stretch---Coleman and Samuel both have good hands, and Kincaid and Shakir had amazing catch percentages last year).
To me, the discussion isn't about whether Josh does or should throw arm punts, it is about did those particular interceptions affect the outcome of those games. And since it worked out as good as a punt (not saying he meant it as a punt), I don't really care that Josh took that risk in that circumstance (unless he had a better option on the field to get a first down, of course---I haven't looked back to see if Josh had other options on those throws or not). And it doesn't matter to me if it makes his INT stats at the end of the year look bad, because ultimately it wasn't a bad decision at that time in that game---he's taking a chance knowing that the negative outcome wouldn't be that bad for the team.
And as GoBills808 said, you also have to factor in the amount of TDs Josh scores when thinking about interceptions. For instance, he threw 18 INTs to Lamar Jackson's 7 INTs. But Josh also scored 44 TDs to Lamar's 29. With more reward comes more risk. Even if the opponents turned every INT into a TD (which they never do), and you subtracted those scores from their TD totals, Josh still would be up 30 points on Lamar.
Look, ultimately, does Josh need to improve on his number of interceptions from last season? Yes. But, do I worry that he has an interception problem that he can't improve on this year? No.
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I don't think anyone is overly optimistic about the wide receiver room. And I think every Bills fan would feel a lot more comfortable if we knew we had that #1 stud WR.
What I think is happening (for those who think too many people are drinking the Kool-Aid on this WR room) is two-fold. It's a bit of off-season rationalization/hope, but it is also people seeing how it could actually work. Seeing how what we do have works and not worrying about what we don't have---having been "realistic" about our cap situation. But, believe me, I have no problem with posters who are not happy with how Beane has handled the WR spot, I understand their viewpoint too. I particularly liked Logic's point about drafting prospects, rather than special teamers with later picks. Not that I want to ignore special teams, but I get what he's saying.
What the Bills did add/keep to the WR room though (as opposed to last year) is size, speed, and better hands (not counting MVS, of course). Catch percentages from last year: Kincaid (80.2%), Shakir (75.4%), Davis (55.6%), Sherfield (50.0%), Diggs (66.9%---which dropped to 60.0% over the last 10 games of the season, including the playoffs). Samuel and Coleman are both players with good hands. So, what did we really lose? Diggs. And down the stretch of last season (the last 10 games) Stefon was averaging 50 yards and 0.2 TDs per game. Definitely not #1 WR numbers. And yet the offense still played pretty well. I think with Brady installing a more ball control offense, and Josh spreading the ball around, some of us just see that with better size, speed, hands---even though none of the players are elite, this offense could actually be better this year than last, despite our WR room, on a whole, from the outside, looking really weak. Brady just needs to use each guy he keeps to his skillset specialty. And, obviously, you have to include the TEs in the thought process of the offense as a whole.
Also, as far as the WRs go, the way I am looking at it is not #1 to #6, but rather by targets. I see target-share going something like this:
Kincaid (1), Shakir (2/3)/ Samuel (2/3), Coleman (4), Cook/Davis (5), Knox (6)
I do think that Samuel is going to be a very good player for us. I really like him and think he will become a fan favorite (NO, not #1 WR stats, but a consistent, solid contributor).
But, anyone after that group is 7th in the pecking order for targets---or will be a package-specific, red-zone specific player. There are games where Josh hits 8 or 9 targets, so everyone can eat to an extent, but how much will we really be relying on the rest of those guys (barring injury)? I'm not necessarily counting on any of them being more than expected, but if we hit on one or two guys that really want to reclaim (or start) their career, then we are in even better shape. But, even as they are, used sparingly to their skillsets, I think they can still be assets.
MVS may have the best shot. Despite his drops (which the Bills have tried to avoid). He has had the most recent success, has the speed they want, and they are always enamored with guys that torched them previously.
Claypool had 9 TDs his rookie year. I know that was a long time ago, but the more red zone targets, the better, imo. And he's at least shown that he can get it done in the league---again, though it's been a while.
Mack Hollins. Safe player...can keep you afloat for a couple of games if needed and play special teams.
Can Hamler finally put things together...not really expecting it.
Isabella is a practice squad guy for me. Emergency WR/returner.
Shorter/Shavers/Johnson Calling them long-shots/practice squad players (mostly cause we don't really know enough about them).
So, best-case scenario for me is MVS and Claypool staking their spots:
Shakir
Samuel
Coleman
MVS
Claypool
Hollins
When you factor in how Diggs played down the stretch last year, or in the playoffs altogether (except for 2020), and Kincaid having a full year of experience now, I think that WR room could actually be a good bit better than last year's overall. The whole equaling more than the sum of its parts. A lot does hinge (in my mind) on Coleman coming in and being able to be productive early and often (as a #3-4 target guy, hopefully moving up to a #2/#3 target guy by the end of the year). So, a lot does ride on him (and counting on a rookie isn't always the safest bet, I get it).
The only other problem I see with that six is there are really no permanent return guys. But isn't one of the corners we drafted a good return guy? Maybe we can find that elsewhere on the roster rather than having to keep say an Isabella or Johnson on the 53. Or you keep the returner, say Johnson if he shows he's really good at it, and move Hollins down to the practice squad for emergency use.
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On 5/13/2024 at 10:00 AM, Einstein's Dog said:
To me the WHO is someone who is expected to be at least as good as Diggs in 2024. That is the bar that Beane needs to hit to try for year over year improvement.
And yes, a trade for a top tier WR pulls the whole actions together - the letting Diggs go, only drafting one WR in a loaded draft, no major FA pickups. It all comes together with this one move.
20 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:Samuel, Coleman, Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, MVS
Is there a Top 10 veteran WR in there? No. But 22 teams in the NFL don't have one of those. And while we don't have a Top 10 guy, we have a wide spread of talented players in the Offensive firepower core that spreads larger than most teams.
If you take the production (or lackthereof) from Diggs and Davis into account from mid season until the end - it's quite possible, if not likely, we're going to get more out of the additions of Coleman, Samuel, and MVS than we did them, even if they don't have the name Star power.
I agree with BillsFanForever19
Look, I loved having Stefon Diggs on the Bills and I supported Gabe here more than most...
But, this idea that Diggs/Davis' production isn't replaceable (outside of nabbing a true, stud, #1 WR) is a fallacy.
Here is what Diggs/Davis averaged over the last 10 games last year (including the two playoff games):
Diggs: 4.7 receptions, 50.8 yards, and 0.2 TDs
Davis: 1.4 receptions, 31.2 yards, and 0.2 TDs
They only had 4 combined TDs over the last 10 games (down the stretch and in the playoffs---granted, Gabe missed the two playoff games---but the best ability is availability). That means 6 games with no TDs from either Diggs or Davis, in crunch time.
Gabe had two games over 100 yards in that span, but also had 4 games with 0 receptions, and missed the two playoff games due to injury.
Diggs had zero games over 100 yards in that span, he only had one game over 75 yards in that span.
Diggs started off last season great, but then something happened. Who knows if Diggs fell off the cliff due to age, Brady taking over the offense, disgruntlement (lack of effort), or a combination of all three, but the decline was significant:
In the first 9 games last year, Diggs had 734 yards and 7 TDs (or 82 yards and 0.78 TDs per game), with a catch percentage of 75%.
In the last 10 games last year, Diggs had 508 yards and 2 TDs (or 50.8 yards and 0.20 TDs per game), with a catch percentage of 60%.
[I mean, 50 yards/game and a TD every 5 games, you can get that production from any mediocre WR in the league]
And just FYI:
The Bills went 5-4 in the first 9 games (when Diggs was playing well).
The Bills went 7-3 down the stretch (when Diggs' production had fallen off), including a 7-1 stretch.
Obviously, so many other factors go into records, but just pointing out that the team didn't collapse, or do worse in the win column, when they weren't getting the same production from Stefon.
So, are we really saying that the guys we have now can't match that production? 6 recs, 80 yards, and less than half a TD per game? Even if you take Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook out of the picture (because they were on the field too when Diggs and Davis got those numbers), are we really saying that the combination of Samuel, Knox, Coleman, MVS, Claypool/Hamler/Hollins (whoever gets the time on the field), can't average 80 yards/game and one TD every 2.5 games? Is it outrageous to think that say Samuel and Coleman have like 30 yards each and maybe 20 yards to Knox (if Kincaid and Shakir are the top two targets, say). And then one of the three of them scores a TD say every third game? It doesn't take that much to match that production.
I actually think that the sum of the parts of this year's team will add up to more than the whole of last year's team (at least as far as pass catchers/offense goes). So, I don't think we are as bad off as some think. It really won't take much to at least maintain a status quo---matching the production of Diggs/Davis down the stretch of last year.
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It would be great to get Josh as many high-end targets as possible, but there is a little thing called team building.
First of all, safety was at least as important a position to fill as WR. As we have seen with Poyer and Hyde over the last seven years, it is a very important position in McD's defense, as far as quarterbacking the defense and disguising their defense. Also, we aren't a traditional strong and free safety position team. The safeties (much like the LBs) need to be interchangeable. So, not every safety will fit in the system. You need a specific type of player. And before the draft, Damar Hamlin was our #1 backup.
Then, as others have said, trying to get three young guys up to speed and/or determine which of them is the best, who should get the most reps, playing time, etc. would be a logistical nightmare. Not to mention the possible frustration of the guys who aren't getting as many reps or playing time. And it would make it harder for them to build chemistry with Josh both on and off the field. Building relationships and rapport with three new guys at the same time, who will each be getting limited reps would be tougher.
Then there is the best case scenario of, ok, what if they all become good. Maybe you can trade one early on in their career or something (and hope to get back that 2nd or 3rd round pick for a guy that you haven't really had the reps to showcase most likely), but if you hold on to them all, then you are having to decide on 5th year options and whether to give them a second contract or not all at the same time (and/or lose and replace some or all of them at the same time). And while you have them, how often will all three of them be on the field at the same time? Do you need to change the offense to accomodate? Or if one of the three isn't on the field much, then that is a high draft pick for a backup.
Then there is the thought of, what if it takes all of them 2-3 years to acclimate and play well. Are you really holding 3 WR spots on the roster for developing players? Who are you putting on the field in the meantime if they are taking up three roster spots. And being guys with a lot of potential and having been drafted in rounds 1-4, good luck keeping them on the practice squad, you almost have to keep them on the 53. Can the guys you drafted at least play special teams until they are up-to-speed as a WR? Or did they not do that in college, are unwilling/reluctant to do that at the pro level.
I feel like I could go on and on and I didn't even mention depth and money allocation. What position are you sacrificing depth at? It appears you were fine sacrificing depth at safety and DT, but do we really want another year of your Tim Settles, Poona Fords, and Damar Hamlins having to play significant time at those positions? We didn't have a lot of cap space to sign a lot of above-average free agents---having to fit in another safety and DT FA contract, for example, might have been tough ( if you want a good enough player). By mid-season, Carter could possibly be playing 30-40% of the snaps at DT and Bishop may be starting at safety. To find that production in free agency would have cost.
There is just so much more that goes into the thinking behind team building than just get Josh as many weapons as possible. You have to ask at what cost and/or what are the odds and possible outcomes of each gamble.
Now you mentioned Cincinnati. Sure, you could suggest that as an option for Beane...he should grab one WR in the first two rounds every year and churn through them. I'm not sure the long-term effects on the rest of the team with that philosophy to say whether it works or not over the long haul...but the Bills drafting three WRs with their first three picks this year would not be good team building, imo, regardless of the players drafted.
I kind of agree with GunnerBill in that the best option would have been drafting and grooming a higher draft pick WR behind Diggs and Davis the last year or two (not 6th and 7th rounders). Granted, before the 2023 draft, maybe they didn't expect the level of Diggs' discontent and/or his slowing down and expected to still have him this season, with Coleman being drafted as the Davis replacement. So, maybe they thought they had another year to replace Diggs initially (so I can give them a bit of a pass there). But, ultimately, you would hope that you are drafting and grooming future starters behind your current starters at as many positions as possible...and that really hasn't been the case for Beane when it comes to WR. But, I'm not as down as some on the current make-up of the WR room (when including the TEs in that thought). I think the guys we got can get it done with Josh at the helm. No one may have Diggs-like numbers, but the sum of the parts may actually be better than how things played out last year. I guess we just have to wait and see.
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Good topic/discussion...
I agree with a lot of what Shaw posted (especially about the gap closing between the elite WRs and the very good WRs), but I wonder if the one caveat to the overall theory is having an elite QB. Most of the examples that I think of when I think of teams with non-elite WR corps still getting it done, I think of Brady and the Patriots; Rodgers and the Packers, Mahomes and KC.
All three (and Josh) are elite QBs. Plus Brady had Gronk, Mahomes had Kelce, and Rodgers...well he didn't really have a stud after Adams left (but then he didn't win a Super Bowl either, they were good but not great).
So, if you have an elite QB (who can raise the play of your WR corps) and one elite playmaker (could be a TE or maybe even a RB rather than a WR), then you can still have a top offense. Since the QB is elite, he can make any throw, spread the ball around, hit tighter windows, ball placement, etc. So, your receivers maybe don't need to be elite, as long as they fit a role and have good hands (which we have been lacking of late---Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman, and Samuel all have good hands---Davis, Mckenzie, Knox, and even Diggs of late had much lower catch percentages, etc.). Can Dalton be our elite playmaker?
Conversely though, if your QB isn't elite (more middle of the pack), the top-end WR may become much more important. They are needed to help create more opportunities for the QB, because he can't create as many on his own...due to whatever he is lacking (arm strength, processing speed, elusiveness in the pocket, whatever). Or maybe if you have a rookie/young QB, you still want that top-end WR as a security blanket and to help teach the young guy, etc.
So, it may just be a team-by-team basis based on the level of confidence in your QB. Teams with top-5 to top-10 QBs may feel they can plug and play WRs, while teams with middle- to low-end QBs want that elite, playmaking WR(s) to help get open quickly, have the size or speed advantage, etc. to help their QB.
So, I'm thinking that yes, there is a trend of some sort, but also, maybe it's only at the top of the league? Just a thought.
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3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:
Iirc someone posted here recently that Diggs has all of four TDs in his playoff career as well, so…,
1 hour ago, Starr Almighty said:TDs aren't easy to come by I was more focused on yardage and receptions
I'm fine with the MVS signing (even though he frustrated me with drops when I had him in fantasy when he was still in Green Bay). The more competition this year, the better. And we are at least deeper than we were last year, even if the top isn't as strong. But, I also think we will be a different offense this year under Brady. A more ball-control offense, hence the bigger receivers. I think targets will go Kincaid, Shakir/Samuel, Coleman, RBs, Knox, then the best of the rest (whoever rises to the top of the remaining candidates). So, whoever that is will be fighting for like the 7th target-share position. And we at least have a lot of options there. If Brady can use each guy we keep to his skill set, in a committee-like approach, running the ball at like a 54/46 percentage, I think this offense can still be very potent with Kincaid as your #1/#2 target and Josh at the helm. It's just going to look different...maybe more of an old New England style offense (but one that takes some more risks/shots downfield, etc.). Just my guess/opinion at the moment. So, I'm not complaining about adding more competition.
However, I really wanted to address the quotes above. On paper, losing Diggs and Davis looks pretty bad. But, neither were consistently clutch in the playoffs and they definitely weren't helping us get over that divisional round hump. [I still like both players and am happy they were Bills, but it probably was time for a change.]
Diggs' playoff numbers:
Over his total playoff career (14 games with Minnesota and Buffalo), Stefon has averaged 5 receptions for 65 yards and 0.29 TDs per playoff game.
Over his Bills playoff career (9 games), Stefon averaged almost the same: 5 receptions for 67 yards and 0.22 TDs/playoff game
Stefon did really well in the 2020 playoffs, averaging 7 receptions for 104 yards and 0.66 TDs per playoff game that season (3 games total).
However, over the last three seasons (2021-2023; 6 playoff games), Stefon only averaged 4.5 receptions for 48 yards and 0 TDs/playoff game, with a 58.9% catch percentage and a 41.1% success percentage. Those numbers are not great...and that was our #1 WR over 3 years of playoffs.
Gabe Davis had the really nice playoff game in Indy his rookie year, then had the monster game in KC in 2021, and an excellent game against Miami in 2022. But, in his other 4 playoff games, he averaged 1 reception for 18.7 yards and 0.25 TDs. And then, of course, he was unavailable for the two playoff games this year (due to injury). Obviously, you can't blame a guy for getting injured, but he only helped in 3 out of the 9 playoff games the Bills had while he was here.
So, of the 18 combined possible playoff games played by Diggs and Davis as Bills (9 each), Stef had 4 good games and Davis had 3 good games (7 out of 18). And actually, three of the games overlap. So, we had 3 of 9 games where they both played well, and then in the other 6 playoff games, they both had bad stats for 5 of the 6, and in the other Diggs did good, but not Davis. We obviously need to do better in the post-season, however Brady and McD think that can be done.
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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
So did everyone. Carter will be hated around here I believe.
1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:He’s got McCargo’s size, Torell Troup’s athleticism, and Dareus’ work ethic.
Is this sarcasm? Or are you really that down on this pick? I'm honestly curious.
I admit, I know almost nothing of his college career, other than the post-draft highlight vids, etc. But, after watching all of his interviews and stuff, I really like the kid. He is mature, a leader, has the Bills DNA, is smart, etc.
It looks like most draft predictions had him as a 4th rounder. We grabbed him at the very end of the 3rd round---not that big a reach, and he probably wouldn't have been there by our 4th round pick.
His strength seems to be interior pass rush, which he can achieve with quickness or bull rush. He's a little weaker standing up in the run game. Was projected to be a rotational DT. Sounds like the perfect guy to have behind Oliver. We won't be asking Carter to plug up the line, but rather to penetrate. And hopefully, he'll get stronger as well, with NFL nutrition, strength & conditioning, etc.
We'll have to wait and see if his skill set/talent is consistently good enough for the NFL, but he certainly won't bust from a lack of effort, intelligence, maturity, drive, mentality, etc. So, I think you're off comparing his work ethic to Dareus. This kid loves ball.
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3 hours ago, Blank Stare said:
Anyone know how you pronounce UDFA Lovely’s first name? Keni-H. Is it just “Kenny”?
Kenny-H? Well, as long as he doesn't play the alto sax, I'm fine with him making the team...
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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:
This is great, thank you for putting this together.
Question: any particular reason you broke it down as 8 games and 9 games?
Reason I ask is that 'last 9 games' includes 2 games with Dorsey still as OC.
That might matter - I put this elsewhere, but when I looked at rush % and pass % in games where Brady was OC vs games where Dorsey was OC, the difference was even more significant than you note. The Bills had an overall 58%/42% pass/rush split under Dorsey. They shifted to a 48%/52% pass/rush split under Brady.
A lot of that, unfortunately, was rush attempts for Josh Allen - I make it 9.2 attempts/ game including playoffs with a Dorsey/Brady split. I really don't think we want to rely on Josh Allen as the best rusher on the team.
Anyway I think looking at it as Dorsey vs Brady makes some of the differences you noted more stark.
And yeah, we don't know how much was what Brady would like to do, and how much is "OK, these are the chess pieces still on my board, these are their capabilities, what can I do to win now?"
Yeah, I guess I wasn't thinking of it only as Dorsey vs. Brady, but that probably would have been a better delineation, as far as trying to see if there was a style change between the two OCs.
I guess I just tried to cut it right down the middle---and because, as far as individual player stats were concerned (particularly for Kincaid and Shakir), that is right about where the change started to happen (mostly due to Knox's injury).
But yes, using the division between the coordinators might be a better place as far as looking at the run/pass balance.
THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - A Roster for McDermott to Work With
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I think another interesting comparison might be with the 2021 roster. Despite not making it to the Championship game (as they did in 2020), I think 2021 was the year that we all thought they could/should go on to win it all...probably the best team in the McDermott era to date.
Pos 2021 2024
QB Allen, Trubisky Allen, Trubisky
RB Singletary, Moss Cook, Davis
WRs Diggs Shakir
Sanders Samuel
Davis Coleman
Duke Wiliams Claypool, MVS
Kumerow, Hodgins Hollins, Hamler
TE Knox Kincaid. Knox
LT Dawkins Dawkins
LG Feliciano Edwards
C Morse McGovern
RG Ford Torrence
RT Williams Brown
So, quarterback is a push. I'm taking Cook and Davis over Singletary and Moss. Diggs wins the #1 WR battle for the 2021 squad, but from there down, I'm taking the 2024 WRs over the 2021 WR corps. Kincaid/Knox is better than Knox/no one. Dawkins is a push. Not much difference between Feliciano and Edwards probably. As of now, Morse wins the center position, but I'm taking Torrence and Brown over Ford and Williams on the right side (although Williams played well in 2021).
Pos 2021 2024
LDE Addison Rousseau
NT Lotulelei Jones
DT Oliver Oliver
RDE Hughes Epenesa/Miller
WLB Milano Milano
MLB Edmunds Bernard
SCB Johnson Johnson
CB White/Jackson Douglas
CB Wallace Benford
SS Poyer Rapp
FS Hyde Bishop
I'm taking Rousseau over Addison, and Daquan over Star. Oliver, Milano, and Taron are all pushes (provided Milano is back to form). I'm taking Epenesa and Miller over Hughes for two reasons, where Jerry was in his career at the time and the hope that Von returns to form---but I could see someone taking the other side on that to. I'm taking Bernard over Edmunds at Mike. And Benford gets the nod over Wallace. Obviously, Hyde and Poyer win the safety battle easy. Then there is Tredavious vs. Rasul. I would give the nod to Tre, but he missed the last 6 games of the year and the two playoff games in 2021, so I'm taking a healthy Rasul over 2021 Tre/Jackson.
I honestly do not see any reason why we can't still go on a deep playoff run. The only players I picked from the 2021 squad over the 2024 squad were Diggs, Morse, Poyer, and Hyde. I don't think center will be a problem or that big a drop-off. So, to me, the only major question marks (personnel-wise in comparison to 2021) are can McDermott get the younger safeties up-to-speed? I don't expect them to have the knowledge and rapport of Hyde and Poyer, but are they good enough to keep the drop-off to a minimum and hold their own? And, developing DBs does seem to be a strength for McD, so crossing my fingers. And then, without Diggs, how will the rest of the WR corps handle things? But, with Kincaid in the mix, way better depth, Shakir maturing, and Josh Allen distributing the ball, I really do think we will be fine without Diggs (just mo).