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Ralonzo

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Posts posted by Ralonzo

    Legette vs. McConkey

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

    It depends on what you want. Do you want another small slot guy or do you want a big strong blocking guy? Or do you get someone like AD Mitchell to play the Diggs role? I like McConkey but I think we already have some McConkey's on the team and we need a Gabe or Diggs replacement 

     Javon Baker is absolutely a Davis replacement. Same school, same game, same drops :O

    Brand Beane Press Conf 4/18

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 4/18/2024 at 4:14 PM, Logic said:

    The random report from Andrew Filiponi a few days ago that the Bills and Steelers swapping 1st round picks was "something to watch out for" raised my eyebrows.

    It wouldn't be cost prohibitive for the Bills, it would match the M.O. of a modest round 1 trade-up that we all know Beane seems to love, and if I'm not mistaken, the Steelers need a center, and they could still likely get a JPJ or Graham Barton at 28.

    If a Brian Thomas Jr or Cooper DeJean (or whomever they like) is sitting there at 20, it won't shock me one bit if this trade comes to fruition on draft night.

     

    It might be cost prohibitive. Without invoking futures what the charts indicate is that something like #20 + #98 from PIT for #28 + #60 from BUF is close in value.

    28 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

    If Beane doesn't understand that the team needs to add superior talent at WR, there's a problem. And btw, I was not one of those who was terribly worried about LB last year. Obsession is a pejorative term. Maybe you think everyone who is worried about the talent in the WR room is overwrought and that Beane has shown himself to be shrewd, and so successful that his acumen should be automatically granted the benefit of the doubt. Justin Shorter is not likely the WR equivalent of Bernard. Shakir and Samuel are not true WR2 in my estimation, nor is the collective combination of what is on the roster, plus Knox, Kincaid, and Cook a remedy for the current state of WR talent on the roster. As it stands, it is in the bottom ten of the NFL, imo.

     

     

    I'd be fine with Beane adopting whatever plan the Packers seem to be using for a productive WR assemply line where the next "Who the hell is that guy?" plugs in for 100 yards and a TD or 2.

    The Dark Horse WR on the Roster (Beane made reference to guys on the roster elevating their play)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

     

    So the Panthers do have a new Buffalo connection since they hired Dan Morgan as Assistant GM in 2021 and just promoted him to GM....I haven't looked at the value match for swapping #28 for #33 - looks like an 80 point difference which would be like maybe their high 4th round pick with a Buffalo 5th rounder given back as change?  If there was some reason they wanted to trade back into the 1st round for that extra option year or to lock up a player they want.

     

    For Carolina the closest match is #33 + #101 for #28 + #200 (214 points each per Rich Hill values). I think that should ensure one of Franklin/McConkey/Leggette/Worthy at least, if that's the tier they've got.

     

    For a bigger gamble, #39 + #65 for #28 + #128 (Buf gives 228, gets 231). Think I'd rather do the first, if you're targeting one of the top 5 safeties with that 101 pick someone should be around in that range. That position should have a negative draft premium so guys with a 2nd round grade should be gettable in the 3rd.

     

    The Bills draft slots just match so poorly to where the guys who really fit needs are projected. Doing mocks this year has been an interesting jenga.

    The Dark Horse WR on the Roster (Beane made reference to guys on the roster elevating their play)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Ralonzo

    45 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

    Will Legette from S Carolina be there in the 2nd round?  And do you like Roman Wilson?

     

    Leggette is a real wildcard. Brugler has a 3rd on him, but with the caveat that if a team looks at his tape and sees DK Metcalf they might use a 1.

     

    Roman Wilson, I do like him, I just view him as a duplication of skills to Shakir in how you'd have to deploy him, i.e. mainly from the slot. The Bills already have the proven commodity there, that's not the hole on their WR corps.

     

    There's a scenario and I think it's likely where you get 5 or more WR getting tabbed before 28, in which case you'd likely have a QB or 2 (Penix, Nix) dropping to the bottom of Round 1, and there's incentive for a team to pack a few picks to jump up for 1) their QB and 2) the 5th year option in case the QB hits. Or, maybe there's an OT run and a team has just one guy left they are interested in and wants to lock it up.

     

    On the Rich Hill charts, the following teams are well positioned to offer proper value to move up to 28:

     

    1) LV with #44, #77, #112 (there ain't a QB who's there at 13 who's worth it, but they're the Raiders, who knows)

    2) ATL with #43, #74, #79, #109 (boy I'd love this one)

    3) CAR with #33, #39, #65, #101 (if they don't believe in Bryce Young, and they shouldn't)

    4) WAS with #36, #40, #67 and #78 (if they don't go QB at #2)

    5) NE at #34 and #68 (if they go MHJ at #3)

     

    Atlanta makes a ton of sense if they see a QB they want at 28. The Bills swapping #28, #128 and #204 is a dead-nuts-on value match for #43, #74 and #109. Add in #60 and the Bills can chalk off 4 positions from among their needs: WR, S, Edge, DT, OT.

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    The Dark Horse WR on the Roster (Beane made reference to guys on the roster elevating their play)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Ralonzo

    5 hours ago, Logic said:

    So it'll be old guys Samuel and Hollins, and then a trio of youngsters, and likely one of the two career special teams guys whose last name stars with Sh.

     

    Relying on Sh-avers and Sh-orter

    Will send Bills fans into a fit

    They'll be there with pitchforks and torches

    With both of them playing like Sh-aving Cream

    Be nice and clean

    Shave every day and you'll always look keen

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    The Dark Horse WR on the Roster (Beane made reference to guys on the roster elevating their play)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    7 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

    Our core group for passing targets is likely to be: Samuel, Kincaid, Rd1 pick, Shakir, Rd 4 pick, Cook, Knox

     

    As to who those 2 draft picks will be, that's anyone's opinion as of now.  My "hope" is they take:

    Rd 1: Worthy (if there),  or Franklin

    Rd4: Javon Baker

     

    Curious to see which way Beane takes it: 1) overspend for one of the Big 4 who are highly likely to play X and be WR1, 2) think in terms of drafting a complementary pair for the Diggs and Davis roles. Guys like Mitchell and Leggette are wild cards who could be that WR1 but you're rolling the dice. Cap considerations dectate preservation of draft capital - filling roster holes with entry-level contracts who can contribute to a team with a top-3 QB in the league, i.e. the KC model. It's not enough to build a team just to beat the Chiefs anymore. Of course in a wonderful wonderful world Thomas slips to the 20s and the Bills make the move at a reasonable cost but I think they just can't sell the farm with their cap situation.

     

    So of the likely receivers of that tier, you're looking for the guy who can do Diggs things first - sharp routes, separation, and/or insane speed. Explosive guys who threaten at three-levels. Franklin, McConkey, Worthy, Tez Walker, Pearsall (his play metrics concern me tho... Franklin's are excellent). If you're not in love with one of them, someone should be in reach from 60 for a small move-up - or certainly in the mid-30's after a small move down from 28. From there your R4 and after guys who can be the X are Rice, Baker, Polk, McCaffrey even Wilson or Coleman if they drop to the R3/R4 range. There's probably PFA guys out of this group who'd have a chance out of this class.

     

    Being a degenerate mock drafter I've come around to the trade-down approach more often that not and found value to fill roster holes where if half of them hit, the Bills window stays open even this year. Difference makers come out of every round and every draft; even if Beane isn't hitting home runs he's been among the tops hitting singles and doubles, guys who can play in the league and help a team. That's what the Bills need out of their drafts now.

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    Dane Bruglers 7 Round Mock

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    7 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

    Buffalo Bills

    1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
    2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
    4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
    5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
    5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
    6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
    6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
    7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

     

    he has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.

     

    Just for the heck of it. Let's say the Bills opt instead to move down from 28 (and 60 lol). What are some potential draft paths within this 7 round mock? Make some picks based on what's left on Brugler's board right around those spots, guessing who he might mock to Buffalo (we disregard the butterfly effect).

     

    [TRADE 1] Buffalo takes LV's offer to move up for Penix that Brugler mocks at 29, and gets 44 and 77 in return (which is a little light on the Raiders side - they get 209 Rich Hill value for 195)

    [TRADE 2] Then at 60, let's hope Tampa wants someone and would give up 89 and 92 (nearly perfect value match). Barring that I'd still be considering the OT.

     

    1 (44). Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon - The Bills guy all along :)

    3 (77). Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale - Gifted developmental T

    3 (89). Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas - Rotational edge with upside of a future starter

    3 (92). Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest - Great tackler for the Poyer role

    4 (128). Mason McCormick, G, So. Dak. State - IOL mauler for Kromer to mold

    4 (133). Gabe Hall, DL, Baylor - Depth for 3T or 5T

    5 (144). Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State - Big target at X, contested catch monster

    5 (160). Elijah Jones, CB, Boston College - This is @GunnerBill's guy

    5 (163). Jordan Magee, LB, Temple - Fits the Bills mold with speed and relentless pursuit

    6 (200). Ryan Watts, CB/S, Texas - Length and ranginess, a bigger Cam Lewis?

    6 (204). Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan - Tools of an X receiver

    7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy - We'll give Brugler this one

     

    So which draft would you prefer, the trade up or the trade down? This might fit in with that Moneyball thread from yesterday too about the merits of tradnig up vs trading down.

     

    Mock draft simulators.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Looks like PFN has updated the player rankings, and everyone is getting a drive on there with trade-downs, so... I gotta say, this draft seems pretty realistic, the biggest stretch is Mitchell dropping where he did but that's only because EVERYONE else got picked first. Oh, and Tennessee offered their '25 R1 to drop back 28 to 38, so... yeah I'm doing that.

     

    PFN_Draft_result_1713283698036.thumb.png.c0e060cd5d131c7e0fd3d4468ec039ce.png

     

    You know what number Jaylin is gonna get in camp, right? ;)

    Bills top 30 visits

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 3/31/2024 at 8:04 PM, nosejob said:

    Trade a 4th to Tb for 26 or even 4th and whatever to Jerry for 24. Get Latu

    Trade next years 1st for a 2nd and 3rd this year, get Sweat 2 WRs and Maason Smith

     

     

    Tell me you're a doctor working for the Bills without telling me you're a doctor working for the Bills.

    NFL draft rumors 2024

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 4/11/2024 at 3:24 PM, jahnyc said:

    I don't think Collins can be counted on to play full-time or to be an adequate replacement for Brown for a full season.

     

    I don't think L'ol Collins can be counted on to make the roster.

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    NFL draft rumors 2024

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 4/13/2024 at 8:15 AM, BuffaloBillyG said:

    You know, it's really funny to me that when people yell about MHJ, they can't help the narrative about his "bloodlines". I fall guilty of that as well. It indicates absolutely nothing. Many people don't even realize that Jerry Rice's son is in the draft as well....he's projected as a 4th rounder. 

     

    Rice Jr's scouting report sounds a bit like Gabe Davis. I'd take that on one of the Bills' 4th rounders. I don't think we want the Bills to use 28 AND 60 on the one position and I hope Beane learned that lesson, but right around there should be the range where a Rice or Javon Baker get tapped... maybe even Tez or Burton?

    NFL draft rumors 2024

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Ralonzo

    On 4/11/2024 at 12:18 PM, HappyDays said:

     

    Seems like a convergence of interest there, if the Bills can get back a 3rd there should be a sweet spot to land a safety. I love the idea of a trade-back to the top of the 2nd to get an early 3rd, leveraging the value of the 5th year option on their 1st if they have several guys they'd be comfortable with for WR at that slot.

     

    It dawned on me doing mocks that the Bills 2nd (60OA) should still be a premium position addressed - WR, OT, CB, Edge. I keep having Travares Tillman flashbacks reaching for a safety. A guy who keeping dropping into that 60 range is Kingsley Suamataia for the reason that he's so young and raw that he may not be ready to start this year, but has a perfect opportunity to redshirt with the Bills behind Dawkins and Brown, and with Brown's contract coming up it's sensible to get a developmental guy this year. His athletic traits are as good as anyone, but the teams taking OT are taking them to start Day 1.

     

    It's suboptimal to spend that R2 on a guy who isn't playing this year, but the ceiling is sky-high and the position is as critical as anything non-QB. Getting a R3 in a trade-back makes that possible.

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    Mock draft simulators.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    First shot trying out the ESPN simulator.

     

    Round 1, Pick 28   Brian Thomas Jr.   LSU   WR   Rk: 24

     -  Lol no-brainer. A perfect start.

    *** TRADE ***  #60 + #133  for   #62 + #113  (BAL - JaLynn Polk + Jared Wiley)

    Round 2, Pick 62   Kingsley Suamataia   BYU   OT   Rk: 44

     -  Felt 60 was too high for a Hicks or Bishop, so took the small trade down to improve an asset.

     -  But then... there's Suamataia sitting at 62 at a premium position. Kinda gotta.

    Round 4, Pick 113   Austin Booker   Kansas   EDGE   Rk: 112

     -  Traitsy underclassman at another premium position. High ceiling, lots of room for physical and technique development.

    Round 4, Pick 128   Tanor Bortolini   Wisconsin   C/G   Rk: 122

     -  Another case of rare athleticism for an early enty at a pipeline position.

    Round 5, Pick 144   Dominique Hampton   Washington   CB/S   Rk: 146

     -  Has the size and speed for big nickel, and ST applications ala Siran Neal.

    Round 5, Pick 160   Isaac Guerendo   Louisville   RB   Rk: 153

     -  Explosive, blazing top-end speed can make one cut and head to the house.

    Round 5, Pick 163   Decamerion Richardson   Miss. State   CB   Rk: 161

     -  Long and explosive, he's a projection here. Insofar as he compares to Elam, it's fine for #163OA.

    Round 6, Pick 200   Jordan Magee   Temple   ILB   Rk: 167

     -  Fits the rangy and instinctive LB profile the Bills currently favor.

    Round 6, Pick 204   Myles Cole   Texas Tech   DE/DT   Rk: 117

     -  He could be Groot or could be Boogie but this isn't much capital to invest to find out.

    Round 7, Pick 248   Malik Mustapha   Wake Forest   S   Rk: 225

     -  This is a stupid ranking on the site, irl this probably never happens. Frankly I'm happy with him at 144 if need be.

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