beebe
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Posts posted by beebe
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
No offensive player "runs circles" around an opposing defense while getting shut out for an entire half. If you want to say they ran circles around the Ravens D for 2 quarters, go for it. Football is played in 4 quarters.
Your point is wrong. You're trying to argue Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are simply unstoppable and there is nothing the Bills defense could have done to slow them down. You're trying to argue the defensive injuries didn't matter. This is obviously on the face of it incorrect. Gee, what happened to the Chiefs offense after those other playoff games you cited (while ignoring that Tyreek Hill was on the field but we'll let that slide)? They must have run circles around their following opponents, right?
The Bills defense has never been able to stop KC's offense in the playoffs. In fact, the three worst defensive playoff performances of the McDermott era have all come against the Chiefs. In two occasions, Klein was nowhere to be seen. But please keep cranking the excuse machine.
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
Let's break it down line by line.
This is the one thing you said that has merit. The DL was healthy underperformed relative to expectations.
Why does this matter? Hyde and Poyer have both been well below their standards this year. I doubt either will be on the roster next year. When we say the defense stunk, we're including the safety play within that.
Sure, Douglas limping around the field definitely means our defense was close to full strength. Nice try. Christian Benford being replaced by Dane Jackson, who had the 2nd worst performance on the defense, isn't worth bringing up according to you. Get outta here with this crap.
Oh yeah, they "took advantage" of Klein alright. I appreciate your attempt to minimize this by lumping it in with the rest. Klein had one of the worst individual defensive performances I've ever seen in a playoff game. It harkened back to a Mike Hughes performance in a game you might have watched two years ago. I recall a mediocre WR racking up Randy Moss like stats as a result. Yes one absolutely terrible no-business-being-on-the-field defensive player can single handedly ruin the game for everybody else. That was Klein in this one, with an honorable mention going to Dane Jackson.
Get outta here with that crap.
Not a very persuasive rebuttal to the "most uneducated collection of statements" you've ever read. Should have just taken your L and moved on. 😂
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
"Ran circles" around the Ravens D. Chiefs had 8 consecutive drives of:
Turnover on downs
Punt
FG
Punt
Punt
Punt
Punt
Punt
Ran circles. Get outta here with that crap.
I said Mahomes/Kelce did, not the entire Chiefs offense. Mahomes targeted Kelce 11 times vs the Ravens, completed all 11 passes, for 116 yards and a TD. Look at all their game-by-game stats in the last six years in the playoffs. Kelce has played the equivalent of a full regular season with Mahomes in the playoffs (17 games). 133 receptions, 1,516 yards, 18 touchdowns.
People here act like there is a Bills LB on the roster that would have slowed Kelce down. No linebacker or safety in the league has slowed him down in the playoffs since Mahomes came to town.
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8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
This is the most uneducated collection of statements I've ever seen on this board. Suffice it to say, you have no idea what you're talking about.
what am i missing? the way this board talks, you'd think the bills were missing ed reed, ray lewis and lawrence taylor.
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25 minutes ago, Andy1 said:
While I think Josh can match Mahomes at the talent level, I’m not sure if the Bills organization can support him to the same level the Chiefs do for Mahomes. I’m talking about finding talent, coaching, O and D game planning and game day strategy and play calling. Brady has to match wits with Spags for us to be successful.
Eventually the injury bug should bite them and then maybe then we will be able to get by them.
Agree the offensive coaching staff is great (although few had that opinion this year amid all the struggles with Nagy as OC after Bieniemy departed.)
Mahomes WRs the last two AFC championship games:
vs Bengals '22: JuJu, MVS, Marcus Kemp, Skyy Moore, Hardman, Toney
vs Ravens '23: Rice, MVS, Justin Watson, Richie James, Hardman
This is a bottom 3 WR corps in the NFL both years.
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Just now, FireChans said:
It’s almost like he’s the greatest QB in the game.
That's been my thesis, but somehow it gets pushback.
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8 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:
Can’t tell anymore. Is this sarcasm?
Buffalo's D in playoffs:
vs Texans - 5.5 yards per play allowed
vs Colts - 6.2 yards per play allowed
vs Ravens - 4.7 yards per play allowed
vs Chiefs - 6.9 yards per play allowed
vs Patriots - 5 yards per play allowed
vs Chiefs - 7.6 yards per play allowed
vs Dolphins - 3.3 yards per play allowed
vs Bengals - 5.8 yards per play allowed
vs Steelers - 5.1 yards per play allowed
vs Chiefs - 7.7 yards per play allowed
Bills D vs non Chiefs: 5.0 yards per play allowed
Bills vs Chiefs: 7.4 yards per play allowed
The three worst playoff performances by Buffalo's D have all come against Mahomes and the Chiefs. They gave up 38 points and 36 points with fully loaded healthy defenses in prior years - defenses that rated out as top 5 units in the league. I'm not sure why Bernard's presence instead of Klein would have dramatically changed the calculus here.
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30 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:
I disagree 100%. Do you think that the Bills defense would have held the Ravens to 3 points for two and a half quarters like the Chiefs did yesterday? And if Allen was on the Chiefs what do you think he would have done to the Bills defense two weeks ago?
The Bills D isn't as bad as they're being portrayed. Last I checked, they had essentially full access to their defensive line vs the Chiefs (Daquan Jones returned a week prior), they had their two starting safeties (Hyde and Poyer) and their two best CBs (Douglas and Johnson). Bernard was the biggest notable absence, and the Chiefs took advantage of Klein no doubt. But Mahomes/Kelce ran circles around the elite Ravens D, and I've seen them run circles around elite and fully healthy Bills defenses of the past (with Milano and Edmunds on the field). I don't know why it's assumed the Chiefs wouldn't have torched McDermott's fully healthy D in the playoffs this time just like they did the prior two times, and I don't know why it's assumed the Bills wouldn't have slowed the Ravens. The Bills D has been plenty good the last 4 years including in the playoffs except for when they play the Chiefs, or another elite QB like Burrow (in the snow).
The Chiefs lost their best safety Bryan Cook to injury in early December, his replacement at safety Mike Edwards exited the first defensive series with concussion vs the Bills. The Chiefs had to roll the entire game with 4th-round rookie Chamarri Conner, who ultimately played a career-high (by far) 76 snaps vs the Bills. The Chiefs' best LB Willie Gay exited early with injury vs Bills (he was supposed to be the spy on Allen all day). The Chiefs were already without their best run-stuffing DL Derrick Nnadi.
The way it's portrayed, you would think the Bills had a full roster of backups on the field.
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5 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:
So, let’s say Mahomes is traded straight up for Allen this offseason. Bills win the Super Bowl next year, right? Allen’s playoff numbers are great. In the last four playoff losses, the numbers for the Bills’s defense are staggeringly bad. If Allen and Mahomes had traded places five years ago, Allen would have a couple of rings and Mahomes wouldn’t have any. Mahomes may be better than Allen but the difference isn’t a gulf, it’s a puddle.
Mahomes would have taken the Bills to the Super Bowl this year, and for sure would have taken at least two previous iterations of the Bills to the Super Bowl. In part because he wouldn't be playing against Mahomes!
The Bills D has been 'staggeringly bad' in part because they played Mahomes three times!
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Josh's playoff wins have come against the likes of retiring Phillip Rivers, Skylar Thompson, Mac Jones, Mason Rudolph and playoff choker Lamar. All of them were at home, with the Bills being the superior team or vastly superior. They were 10-point favorites vs Pitt, 14-point favorites vs Miami, 5-point favorites vs New England, 7-point favorites vs Indy and 3-point favorites vs Baltimore.
The losses have come against Mahomes three times, Watson and Burrow.
Football is a team game, and I hate how QB focused everything is these days. But at some point, you really do have to actually win something. Allen is 5-5 in the playoffs. As great as he was vs New England in the Wild Card round in 2021, his three turnovers in the Dolphins playoff game in 2022 put that game in peril vs a third-string QB. As good as he was in the 13 seconds game, he stunk in the 2020 AFC title game vs the Chiefs, and was equally ineffective in the playoff loss to the Bengals. In the Texans loss, the Bills scored a TD on their opening drive and then didn't score another touchdown the rest of the game (blowing a 16-0 lead in the process).
This year vs the Chiefs, he had his team 1st-10 at the 27 yd line, with a chance at a walk off win, and he advanced his team only 1 yard closer before settling for a 44 yd field goal.
Mahomes has won more playoff games (6) in the last 13 months than Allen has won in his entire career (5). Mahomes has six AFC title games in six years, 4 super bowl appearances, 2 super bowl wins (with a third possible in two weeks), and has beaten the Bills all three times in the postseason. Some people act like Mahomes is only good because he has Andy Reid, but last I checked, Andy Reid made one Super Bowl his first 19 years in the league, and has made four in six years since he got a unicorn at QB.
The people that rate Mahomes as inferior to Allen are living in fantasy land.
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On 1/23/2024 at 5:18 PM, muppy said:
Third and fourth down avoidance - the Chiefs had just FIVE third downs the entire game - is far more important than converting a high percentage of third downs and/or facing three fourth downs.
Yards per play - the Chiefs were a season-best 7.7 yards per play, compared to Buffalo's 4.7 yards per play - is far more important than total yards.
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9 minutes ago, Success said:
I am beyond tired of the national hand-wringing about that play. It was THERE. I've actually heard fans argue that what Allen SHOULD have done is to just keep picking up small chunks, and then score a TD with just a few seconds left on the clock.
As though you can script something like that perfectly. Then there is a holding penalty, or sack, or turnover, or you just can't get in the endzone. Allen saw Shakir wide open for 6, and he went for it. And, as we all know, if Chris Jones gets there a half second later, that's a TD and we're likely up by 4.
I'm like, is that the best that you've got, Allen haters? The guy plays a great game, should have had at least 100 more yards and another TD if his receivers could hang onto the ball - and you're saying "same ol' Allen" because he went for an OPEN TOUCHDOWN.
And I hope Mahomes throws 3 picks this week so we can all see the double-standard. It won't be nearly as analyzed and dissected.
There's more options for NFL media content than at any point in human history. So much smart content being written by data/analytics people. So many good NFL and team-specific podcasts that are smart and informed. So many great film breakdown guys. Yet the people on this forum become glued to ESPN, Nick Wright, etc, and repeat being outraged over media portrayal when they shove oversimplified narratives down your throat.
Andy Reid has been a brilliant coach his entire NFL career and only in the last five years has he gotten his due credit (many now think he is better than Belichick, which would have gotten you laughed out of the room previously.) Mahomes has made six AFC championships in six years, yet was within a whisker of falling to 0-4 vs Joe Burrow in last year's AFC title game and had to hear about how he was the inferior QB because of it.
Football is a team game consisting of 53 players, a dozen coaches and support staff, with so many moving pieces that influence the outcome - weather, luck, officiating, homefield, injuries, etc. These games are so routinely close it comes down to randomness as much as it does skill.
And yet we keep dumbing it down to the performance of a single player - always the quarterback.
It's stupid.
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From a pure power ratings standpoint, Harbaugh's four teams rated out:
#3
#3
#2
#19 (started 7-4, flamed out as tension built with front office)
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McDermott said in postgame that the "element of surprise" was part of the motivation for going with the fake punt despite the distance to gain and being in their own territory.
Chiefs LB Nick Bolton, coming off the field after the third down stop, was repeatedly telling Chiefs special teams players to "watch the fake"
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Finally got a chance to rewatch the game. I am fairly certain this was by far the most passive defensive game plan that Spags has put together for the Chiefs vs Allen. In the 2020 AFC championship, he brought a bunch of pressure. He's done the same in many of the matchups afterward with a variety of creative and well-timed blitzes. This time, basically nothing. In 39 pass plays, the Chiefs barely ever pressured Allen and many times it was by design. D-Linemen were occasionally not even rushing and just trying to bat the ball down at the LOS. KC kept taking away the deep and intermediate routes and testing Josh's discipline to remain patient.
Despite running just 44 plays (kneel downs not included), the Chiefs had eight 20+ yard plays.
In 78 plays, the Bills had zero.
The game plan worked but was technically a failure. The Bills had three chances to hit on a deep ball but misfired on all of them. There was the Diggs pass deep downfield isolated on a safety. There was Shakir in the end zone. There was the throw downfield to Sherfield that was nearly caught. Catches on any of those three could have swung the game in Buffalo's favor.
Obviously a loss is a loss, but Spags' apparent plan was to patiently wait for Josh to get impatient and hand them a game-altering turnover and he didn't give them one.
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I thought yesterday was a homefield disadvantage. The atmosphere was very tense/nervous throughout, almost expecting the inevitable dread. The Chiefs seemed to come together with the Us vs World mentality and had an extra level of focus they've been lacking throughout this long season. No presnap penalties, no offensive holding, basically a very clean game on offense.
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Is the Diggs foot an actual concern? Limiting in a major way?
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Benford's metrics are actually inferior to Dane.
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Chiefs 26
Bills 20
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The Chiefs not signing Hopkins proved to be massive for the rest of the AFC. He would have spared them from the wide receiver carousel they wasted an entire regular season trying to figure out. I get why they didn't sign him - they thought they had young guys ready to take off - but man oh man that was a monster whiff.
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1 hour ago, boyst said:
No it's not
There was a terrific article someone put out years ago with the Patriots. The argument was they always got favorable calls and he went out checked.
So the Patriots got just as many calls as most teams - but the yards were significantly in their favor. Yards against their opponents were more.
Further, he broke down the quarter and score to tables. It was vlookup heaven
But it showed that the Patriots got a lot of calls late in the game when the game was decided and it didn't hurt them.
It was titled like "penalized call distortion" or something like that. It basically proved that despite calls being equal that they aren't equal.
Penalty EPA is capturing high-leverage situations.
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Semi interesting:
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8 hours ago, eball said:
Question: when is the last time KC faced a top tier QB on the road and won? They haven’t even done well against elite QBs at home. This season they lost to Love at GB, lost to Allen at home, lost to Hurts at home…they beat Tua in Germany and at home, but we know who Tua is…
I just looked at their game splits and this Chiefs team is completely underwhelming. They finished the regular season on a 5-5 “run” — winning their last two in unimpressive fashion against the Browning Bengals and Hockey Stick Chargers (when everyone was rested).
The last time Mahomes threw for 300 yards? Against the Chargers in W7.
I think there is an overwhelming sentiment, because of who Mahomes and the Chiefs have been, that they are still an “elite” team. Do we really believe that their win in an Ice Bowl against the quitting, stinking Fish means they are “back?” I’d suggest they haven’t played a complete game since W7, and they really have no impressive victories at all this season.
And while we’re at it, let’s talk about turnovers. The “turnover machine” Josh Allen-led Bills have turned it over 28 times through 18 games…the Chiefs have turned it over 29.
I get it, the Bills’ defense is injury ravaged and we’re all anxious because of our BBFS…but on paper this game doesn’t look like a “pick ‘em” at all.
I’ll never underestimate Mahomes or Kelce, and the Bills need to focus on continuing to shut down the run…but this is our time to end the Chiefs’ run.
Go Bills!!!
15 and 6, Babyyyyyy!!!!!
A few thoughts/rebuttals:
1. This was the worst year for QBs on record. Basically 75% of the league lost their starting QB for significant time or for the season. In the AFC alone, the Jets, Texans, Colts, Titans, Jaguars, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, Raiders and Broncos all turned to backups. There weren't many truly elite teams this year, and as a result, the overall list of "impressive" wins this year isn't very long for many playoff teams.
2. The Chiefs, by their own admission, basically went the entire season and never once 'put it all together' on offense. They thought they had a surplus of young promising receivers when the year began. By midseason, it was clear that this was the worst receiving corps in the league. Not only was it bad, but it was also banged up. Six of the eight receivers on the roster missed time - Hardman (two months), Ross (two months), James (two months), Toney (in and out all year), Moore (one month), Watson (1 game) - and Kelce has had lingering issues all year. McKinnon, their best pass-catching back, also missed time down the stretch and is out for the season. Pacheco also missed time (including the first game vs Bills). It wasn't until before the Bengals game where the Chiefs finally made an adjustment. They simplified the offense and placed hyper emphasis on breaking the huddle early, getting to the LOS, and maximizing their opportunity for presnap reads. Andy commented again today that this has helped them. The offense had their best game of the year vs the Bengals but stalled out in the red zone consistently, ultimately settling for six field goals. In the playoff game against Miami, the Chiefs again broke the huddle quicker than they did all year. They force fed Kelce, Pacheco and Rice - rather than dialing up plays for their army of receivers like they did all season - and were rewarded by Rice's best game as a pro. They settled for too many field goals vs Miami (four FGs inside 32 yards) but the offense turned in a nice game in brutal conditions.
3. The Chiefs defense, even when adjusting for strength of opponent, still rates out very strong. It is clearly the best Chiefs defense of the Mahomes era by pretty much every measure. They have rushed the passer well, and their DBs Sneed and McDuffie are clearly one of the best duos in the league. Sneed has taken out basically every elite receiver he has faced, including Diggs in the first matchup. Their LBs are very deep with Bolton, Gay and Tranquill. Chris Jones is Chris Jones, and Omenihu (missed first six games of the year) and Karlaftis are both playing extremely well down the stretch. I'm near certain this is a top-5 level defense, and Spags is well known for saving his best stuff for playoff time. (Even in the years KC's defense was below average, they surpassed expectations in the playoffs).
4. You are correct in pointing out that the Chiefs turned it over a bunch this year. They finished the year -11 in net turnovers, 4th worst in the league, and also the worst they've fared in the Andy Reid era. They were also third worst in net penalties. They were the only team in the league who finished among the bottom 10 in both net turnovers and net penalties and still made the playoffs. The fact that they went 11-6 despite this probably speaks more to their upside than them being overrated. Cleaning up turnovers and penalties are controllable.
5. The Chiefs were bad down the stretch. However, it's worth noting that they had a historic rest disadvantage from Weeks 12-thru-17. Every single opponent, including the Bills who came off a bye, held a rest advantage over the Chiefs. It amounted to -20 days of rest/prep in six weeks for the Chiefs, the most in 35 years of data per Warren Sharp.
The Chiefs obviously aren't a perfect team. And due to the offense's struggles this year, they rate out as a worse team this year than last year by advanced metrics. But if they clean up their mistakes, their true upside seems higher. This year's defense is definitely better than last year's. And this year's offense is essentially the same as last year's personnel wise - outside of swapping Rice for JuJu, and Kelce being a step slower. The Chiefs beat the Bengals last year in the AFC title game even after losing JuJu and Hardman to injury, and with Mahomes playing on a high ankle sprain throwing to guys like Marcus Kemp and MVS (star of the game!) Then the Chiefs beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl despite Mahomes reaggravating his high ankle sprain and again while throwing to a collection of bottom feeder receivers.
When you shake everything up in the snow globe, the Bills (even despite their 6-6 start) graded out as a better team than the Chiefs. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points and would also be favored slightly on a neutral field. They're the better overall team through 18 games of results. But I wouldn't dismiss the Chiefs based on the regular season results. I think they're much scarier than these results suggest - and like many teams, they were a few dropped passes (Toney vs Lions, MVS vs Eagles), a blown call (Packers) and self destruction (Toney vs Bills) away from being something closer to a 13-4 team than 11-6.
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His job is to entertain and he must be fairly entertaining because the show is one of the very few success stories on that network - getting better ratings than every show on the network including Skip Bayless's Undisputed show. Getting great ratings while making Chiefs-Bills the center of the show's universe is pretty incredible given that most networks the last 20 years have spent all their time fixating on the Cowboys, Yankees and LeBron.
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Who are your top 10 QBs in the league
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
The Bills don't have a McDermott problem. They have a keep-running-into-Mahomes-problem.