Tanoros
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Posts posted by Tanoros
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2 hours ago, unbillievable said:
I start watching at halftime, then fast forward through the commercials. Will usually catch up to the live broadcast deep into the 4th quarter. If you're not excited to watch the Bills in the 4th quarter, you're not a fan, but just a spectator.
No changes will help, you'll just find something else to complain about. You just want an excuse to tell your friends why you stopped watching football. I have a friend like this.... he only watches because of the parties and uses your excuse frequently. We usually have to keep him up to date on news. (like Damar), otherwise he is clueless.
I wouldn’t call it an excuse, just a reason. For me personally, I don’t watch as many prime time games live anymore (besides Bills games). I usually watch the games in the condensed version, that way I can watch a couple games in the same time as 1 game, getting more bang for my time.
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4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
this is plainly ridiculous
So when the Miami offense is gifted the ball while in position to score a field goal, and the defense doesn’t stop them from scoring the field goal, but prevents the TD, you would attribute more blame to defense for not preventing points or to the offense/special teams that gifted scoring position to the opposing team?
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7 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:
I think it’s the battery pack for his headset and he blows on his hands because they’re cold, but vaping during a game does totally track.
That’s doesn’t look like the face of someone blowing. It looks like the face of someone sucking. It could be a nicotine vape though, doesn’t have to be a marijuana vape, but who knows. It would have been telling to see his exhale to know whether it was nicotine based or marijuana based (nicotine vapes generally create a bigger cloud on exhale).
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7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
whether you drive 70 yards and kick a FG or 30 yards, why would it matter?
Why would that Miami Offense yesterday be expected to have scored more TDs on those short fields than they did?
You misunderstood what I was trying I say. What I’m saying is, counting the field goals against the defense when Miami had a short field, already starting in field goal range. Those points shouldn’t be counted against the defense.
What I meant by EPA, was that had Miami NOT had so many short fields, the odds are good that they wouldn’t have scored as many points, meaning our defense would have prevented some of those field goals.
It was our offense and special teams that put the defense in positions where the defense is defending while Miami is in scoring position to start. So from my perspective, the defense overall played better than the offense, and reading our posts, it’s come across as if you feel the defense didn’t play as good as the offense (is that correct?).
I understand your frustrations about the defense giving up so many long first down conversions (10+ yard conversions) and that equally frustrates me, however, those mistakes (in my opinion) don’t trump the turnovers or short fields that gave Miami an immediate scoring opportunity.
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5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
there is a trend here to discount points scored on short fields, as though they pretty much are impossible to stop.
see above
It’s not discounting the points scored, it’s recognizing the fact that the odds are Miami wouldn’t have scored as much if they didn’t have so many short fields (if you need an example read the post about EPA for reference about the truth of that statement).
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58 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
sure it was. Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.
You can’t count the strip sack fumble return for the Miami offense, so that’s only 24.
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7 hours ago, chongli said:
Of all the advantages cited in the excellent post on page 1 above by @Long Suffering Fan, I agree that home-field advantage has become less important nowadays.
Look at this article from The Washington Post (subscription required with limited articles for free):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/
[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]
The article explains why home-field advantage, which was roughly 3 points in the past, is now about 1/2 a point:
1. Better commincation between QB and coaches via helmet, thus negating crown-noise to an extent.
2. More no-huddle play/hurry-up offenses, with play calls, often involving a single word or hand-gesture. This lack of a huddle does not give the home crowd as much of a chance to affect the play. [When a team breaks the huddle is when the fans get the loudest, often egged up by the announcer.].
3. Easier to access away tickets, meaning teams that travel well can take over a stadium. [Buffalo's Pinto Ron was cited as an example (in the first pic below), where he used to have to place classified in the newspapers' away towns to get tickets; now he just goes online and gets them in five minutes]
4. With seat licenses, the crowds have become more upscale, and the riff raff has been relegated to local bars. The upscale crowd is more tolerant of away-team fans, and even welcoming.
5. Teams travel more comfortably, in full-size jets, and the team comes equipped like mobile "MASH" units, with players using compressions boots and sleeves on the plane. The whole plane is like first-class. Ballrooms in the hotel are set up with tables, ice tubs, etc. Players stay in the hotel the night of the game and can focus on treating their bodies, as opposed to at home.
6. NFL visiting locker rooms standards have improved recently, with more space for things like trainer tables for massages and players' gear. They are more comfortable and less stressful for players.
[click expand below to see more of the article quoted:]
Also, before someone says Buffalo is 0-4 on the road in the payoffs under McD, you have to look more closely. In 2017, we would have lost to JAX regardless, as the team was young and still had Tyrod. In 2019, it was pretty much a toss up. We could have just as well blown the 16-0 lead at home, or beaten Houston at their place. The teams were even. In 2020, KC was clearly the better team and we would have gotten blown out at home too. In 2021, we had KC beat on the road and should have won. CIN did win the following week. Also, especially in the first few rounds, the home team is generally better than the road team (sometimes a lot better). So it is like a self-fulfilling prophecy that the home team wins.
Thank you for this very detailed post with references and summaries. I really appreciate the effort you put into this.
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23 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:
I posted this early in this thread - Tre is NOT what you guys think. Slap labels on him all you want but he is an average CB at best. He has good games vs weak opponents but when it's a "tough" game or it means something Tre is average. Not only do you throw at him you can run to his side too as he is a weak tackler. Hes scraed to hit like Teron or Elam. Simms is simply pointing out the obvious. And, Tre is not going to be any better next season. Please stop with the BS.. he is what he is. Average.
It’s really easy to say this now that his is playing while still working to be back at 100%. Did you happen to share this opinion prior to Tre’s injury? Did you mention it here, on this board?
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13 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:
This honestly strikes me as one of those NFL fantasy seasons. Patriots winning after 9/11. Saints winning after Katrina. Bills winning it after this.
I was thinking the same thing yesterday. Hamlin recovers, and the Bills go on to win a ring for him and the city. That would be an all time historic event for Buffalo and the NFL.
Hamlin first, then let’s see what the team decides to do. One thing for sure, we absolutely know we have the right people in the building who will do what’s best for the team/players.
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35 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
True. I'll just say that there's no protocol for this. It's a violent game of high speed collisions between big athletic young men, and thank God this particular circumstance has never arisen before. So it's fair to criticize, but I'm not interested in creating villains here out of what was a horrible accident. At some later point it's time to have a discussion again about player safety and whether simple tweaks to the rules are enough. We've seen a few really shocking injuries on the field this year and I'm starting to wonder whether this sport is just unavoidably unsafe at the professional level.
Not saying it makes it any better, but there are careers out there where people do die more often than you’d think not to mention long term disability/ailments. At the end of the day, just as in football, people sign up for this stuff. I can’t ever think of a football player dying from playing football and what we say tonight appears to be a freak occurrence. How many years how football been around? The game is safe than it’s ever been, this game isn’t going anywhere and rightfully so.
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8 hours ago, Sharky7337 said:
My issue is when the majority of players we draft and develop don't produce at their draft level until their last year before free agency if at all. The obvious two exceptions being tre white, Edmunds(arguably), milano.
Oliver, epenesa, Basham, Phillips (harrison), Rousseau, Hamlin, Joquan, elam, the linebacker we took this year
Some of these are arguable and or having decent seasons, but if we are not getting the production except for one year and getting average to below average play while they "develop" it starts to look like a bad formula. By the time they become an asset they leave for money.
Oliver is being on the list due to his draft position more so then his play, but every year he's supposed to become this big impact guy, flashes like once or twice, but then never seems to be consistent
I see what your saying and it is frustrating, it seems like other teams have more breakout young guys than us in this McDermott/Beane era. But also, that is the norm for these young guys, come in and improve each year, and most aren’t stars right away.
At this point in time, we do need to shift more towards guys who have an impact sooner, but that will be at the expense of something else (athletics traits, or not a position of need, etc). Unless things fall into place perfectly, there will be some give and take.
One good thing to consider about developing more guys than we can afford is that we will have seen them in our system and will not be gambling as much as someone in FA from another team.
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18 hours ago, Sharky7337 said:
I was all for signing these defensive core players, but after watching games, does it even really matter? I feel like you cannot stop the good offenses much anyways. I think I'd rather spend the money on offense.
Spending the money doesn’t guarantee a good player, even more so if that player will fit in the scheme. Drafting and developing is very important, and the team should instead put a priority on offensive positions moving forward in the draft.
As hard as defense can be these days, the Bills have s good one, and we all see the major drop off when Edmonds is out. To me, he is the number 1 resign based on age, position, play. He’s stepped up huge this year, and for most of the board him being, “young” and developing has been running joke, yet here we are, he has taking a major step forward. At this point, there is no reason to doubt that he won’t continue to make strides in his overall play. He’s definitely playing with a lot more confidence this year.
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On 12/31/2022 at 5:03 AM, LeGOATski said:
I think the Bills intend to do this by drafting a WR early. They brought in Kromer with the hopes of doing more with less on the O line, that way they can grab a top skill player in the draft, be it WR or RB.
I may be in the minority, but I consider Knox an elite weapon opposite Diggs. The Bills could choose to make him more of a target instead of keeping him in to block so much.
I certainly he has the potential to be an elite weapon and I was really hoping to see him or Davis break out into a bonafide elite player this year (or anyone else, but those two seemed to have the highest probability).
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On 12/30/2022 at 9:47 PM, ganesh said:
We have drafted Cook for exactly that reason.
The Bills are using the Patriots approach to develop their game around the QB. They used a ton of RBs, Slot receivers and TEs to keep everything off balance. They never had big bodied WR other than Moss. They mostly threw to Welker and then to Edelman and Gronkowski, They always had a stable of small backs that were very fast.
Cool turning into that elite player would be amazing and not out of question either. The only thing I see about Cook being a slight issue, is Allen would need to do a better job of looking his way earlier on certain down/distances. Allen tends to look deep first, which is why I would prefer that additional elite weapon to be a wr, preferably a 1B to Digg’s 1A. It would compliment Allen as he plays currently a bit better.
However, I believe the more explosive Cook shows himself to be, that should help Allen look his way more often. Hopefully someone emerges down the stretch/playoffs who we can feel good about for next year, but unless someone steps up, I hope we continue our search for another.
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6 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:
The bills are not going to have money to sign a big name free agent anyway could be the reason why they were hoping for Gabe Davis to be able to step up and take that number to roll
Agree, for us to have two #1’s we are going to have to draft and develop for the second. We need contributors on rookies salaries in order to afford everything. As much as I’d love a second #1 wr, more than anything I just want another elite player on the offensive side of the ball. We have Allen and Diggs which is great, but we need one more atleast. With this upcoming draft, I feel like we need to land someone early who can be a major contributor on offense with the ceiling to be elite.
I’d even settle for an elite offensive guard. I’d prefer another position, but an elite person on the o-line wouldn’t be horrible.
It’s going to be an interesting offseason. Now that things are getting tight, I’m curious to see how Beane handles things and which direction we go.
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17 minutes ago, finn said:
But are those short bursts of success because of WR talent or Allen making things happen? I see a superstar surrounded by mediocrity players (except for Diggs) and making them look special. Put it this way: can you think of a WR besides Diggs bailing out Allen this season with a great catch? And how many drops can you remember from MacKenzie alone?
No, this is a team with a bottom-tier offensive line and a truly mediocre set of WRs aside from Diggs. Allen by himself makes commentators gush that "this offense is loaded" and "Allen is surrounded by weapons."
Completely agree. Allen needs more help on offense. We need one more elite player on offense. Preferably a skill position, but even OL would be fine. Whatever is done, Beane needs to emphasize the offense more. Our best weapon is Allen, so he needs all the help he can get to maximize our teams success.
Having an offense that can score points at will, will take pressure off of the defense anyway, forcing the other teams to be more one dimensional.
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12 hours ago, Talley56 said:
I have Josh Jacobs in a FF championship this weekend. It was already going to be hard enough for him to run on the Niners’ defense. With Stidham at QB I fear SF can pretty much load the box to stop Jacobs all game.
THIS! I’m in the same spot and questioning playing him. My backup option would be McKinnon. Who has had some big games lately, but he is also a big gamble.
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3 hours ago, flomoe said:
I cut from DTV in May after being with them since 1996. The price of service got ridiculously out of hand the last 10 years but bring an out of towner, I needed ST to watch the Bills.
I was turned onto a streaming service from a friend that allows me to see just about every sporting event in the world for less than $200/year. Took the money I saved from DTV and invested in top flight internet and streaming equipment and I’ve watched every Bills game, most Sabres and an endless supply of movies. DTV is a dying service.
I was able to get ahold of a similar service. Like you, I can watch just about any major sporting event.
There are just so many streaming options. I’m excited to see what happens with NFLST on YouTube tv though. I’d like to hope they will be open to reimagining the whole affair. For instance, being able to watch games from an All-22 perspective like Thursday Nights, “Prime Vision”. Hopefully YouTube is willing to create some positive change making the whole ST and football watching experience easier and more enjoyable.
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3 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:
Could there potentially be any more games on NFLN? If not, I’m cutting loose from DTV tomorrow.
If so, it will be a game that’s nationally televised and available via NFL+. If you have that already, then you will be covered.
On a side note, having NFL+ and having the option of watching all of the local games on my phone is awesome. I’ve been able to more flexible and still seeing the games.
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21 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Okay, so should Allen literally never look for deep throws? Should he assume before every snap that Spencer Brown will lose his rep and forget about even trying to make explosive plays? Maybe against the Lions instead of waiting in the pocket for Diggs to get open downfield he should have just thrown a check down and conceded overtime? There's no good answers here. In general I think the offense could use more quick pass designs, but you have to hit explosive plays to consistently win football games. If he had another second of protection he probably gets that pass off and who knows if it's completed but it's a chance at an explosive play. I just think it's a little unfair to Allen to criticize him for letting plays develop. It's not like there was a jailbreak on the play, Spencer Brown just got beat.
Your a very right. In many ways Allen is still a young qb, and finding the right balance between being aggressive and taking the easy stuff is something he still needs to figure out.
The way I see it, we have games (a lot this year) where we fail to put drives together because of many compounded reasons (stuff at the line for no gain or little, pre/during play penalty, dropped pass, tough contested drop, and throw away). When we are having these issues, there are plenty of times Allen will look to hit a deep throw, instead of taking the easy stuff and getting a drive going. What I’m getting at, is besides finding the balance in general, I think Allen could benefit from recognizing in game, when it’s time to dial up the aggressiveness or dial it back.
Allen has worked hard every offseason to improve, and I expect finding the right balance between being aggressive or not is something he will work on for the rest of his career.
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20 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:
Reading this thread reminded me that sports fans fall into some traps because we all care so much about things over which we have no control:
- When the other team makes a play, we all search for "who's guilty" on our favorite team rather than acknowledging that the other team can and will make plays. I think that we do this because we want to feel like the "problems" are fixable with better defensive technique and/or personnel. For example, Hill makes a lot of safeties take bad angles due to his olympic sprinter speed. I think that on this particular play Micah Hyde himself would have taken a "bad angle" because once Hill is at full stride there is little that you can do. I'm not saying Hamlin made a good play, but once Hill gets that ball where he did he is taking it to the house 9 times out of 10. This goes across all sports. To baseball fans, every HR hit by the other team is a bad pitch. On SabresSpace, every goal scored by the other team is a missed defensive assignment. Sometimes the other team makes a play. Imagine being a Fins fan breaking down JA17 40+ yard run. You would blame the DC, the entire DL, LB corp, and the DBs. They all missed tackles and took bad angles.
- Fans of every NFL team hate the OC. And I mean every team. We do this because it seems to us like a job that we could do. Fans also like the plays that work and hate the ones that don't. Everyone here has conveniently forgotten how much we used to hate Daboll. Go read the post game thread after the Jax debacle for a refresher. Bengals fans HATE Zach Taylor (he calls the plays) with the force of a thousand suns (I know because I live in Cincinnati and hear it all the time). Chiefs fans, after the past two games, want Andy Reid to give up play calling duties (I actually waded into the cesspool that is Chiefs Planet to confirm this). In Dorsey's case, if you look at the All-22 you'll see short and medium options open on every pass play. Dorsey is "scheming" them open but Josh Allen is just refusing to take the layups. It comes with the territory. A QB that takes the easy options doesn't even think to attempt that TD pass to Cook at the end of the 2nd. Nor does he scramble out wide, jump in the air, and throw a TD pass across his body instead of throwing the ball away like JA17 did in the Pats game.
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I think that Bills fans need to find a way to watch other NFL games with the same critical eye as they watch Bills games. Most NFL games are close, with a few plays deciding the outcomes. And most blowouts are the result of a strange circumstances. For example, everyone is pumping up the Bengals right now but they would have lost to the Bucs if the Bucs offense had not TURNED THE BALL OVER ON FOUR STRAIGHT POSSESSIONS. The first one was a good play by a DB but the next three were a complete implosion by the His Royal Tomness. And in their great win over the KC Chiefs, the Mighty Cincinnati Bengals slot receiver and Bills' fan favorite Tyler Boyd had a worse drop than any this season by Davis or Knox. You just don't remember it because the Bengals won the game and it didn't hurt you on an emotion level.
Great post and great perspective. It’s so true how we fans want to find fault or praise from our teams players for our teams success or failures (especially the failures).
About your comment of Allen not always taking the easy stuff, but the easy stuff IS there. It’s so true, I feel like this is the one area Allen really needs to find the right balance. Like you said, his aggressiveness is why we see some of his most amazing plays, but that same aggressiveness is the reason some drives stall out. Keeping the chains moving and having short down and distances consistently is a good thing. This season, too many times we’ve found ourselves in 3rd and long (for many reasons).
Kurt Warner breaks down the film from the Dolphins game here. It’s a very detailed analysis, and he (Kurt) points out some opportunities for Allen to take the easier stuff. But it’s also cool to see what Allen is seeing and how the plays are drawn up. The breakdown on the TD pass to Hines is especially cool. We ran the same play twice in a row. Once with Singletary and then with Hines. Either way, the subtle difference of Knox’s position and body movement were all the difference in the play being a TD or not (we got lucky on the Hines TD, the LB got sucked forward at the start of the play, losing his angle to the corner of the end zone). -
9 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:
Games have been played in Miami for over 50 years, most of those years both teams roasted, to my knowledge no one has died.
Just because it hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t. I work in construction safety and one of the most common lines is, “I’ve been doing it this way for x years and have never had an issue”….until they do.
Safety rules are literally written in blood, and we all know the risks of heat exhaustion or heat stroke, and it’s happened in an NFL training camp. Changes were made to training camp because of it, but changes haven’t found their way to an NFL game. Does someone have to die first? Be seriously injured? At what point is it too much? What I saw against Miami this year was too much. These players want to win too bad, so much so, we have guys like our backup OT Doyle playing on a torn ACL. Imagine how many of them must have had heat exhaustion and were pushing through it? That’s a recipe for disaster, it just takes the perfect heat/humidity index and the right condition within a given persons body, and there could be a serious injury.
At a minimum the NFL should evaluate the conditions of the Miami’s feild/sideline and determine if any changes need to be made. They should at least do something, not pretend there isn’t an issue and keep plugging along like nothing.
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20 hours ago, Gene1973 said:
He's old, unwilling to adjust.
Our current defensive scheme has become the go to scheme to slow down the high powered offenses. I’m sure McDermott has a hand to play with that, but Frazier is the DC, and the Bills have been a top 10 defense every year with Frazier. Not only does his D play well, other teams have adopted concepts from his D.
What is your reason for saying the game is passing him by? 13 seconds? It’s goes without saying having as many injuries as we have had on defense this year is going to cause issues, yet the defense has still looked good even with the injuries.
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7 hours ago, LyndonvilleBill said:
I like Brown, even just for a few go routes to soften up the D. I think he still has some juice left and is a great late season addition. I'll hold my tongue on Beasley until I see him on the field for a few plays, but, I do think worse case he gives Josh some confidence and a safety outlet if needed. He said the right things in his presser and I could care less about the covid stuff. I like people that speak their mind.
As to McKenzie, I disagree (shocker I know😉), far from a lost cause, just needs to be used for what he's best at. Gadget plays and against man coverage.
I like Shakir and hope he gets a role, but, I think people are expecting more than what he is. He's a 70% catch guy without elite traits ( speed, quickness or explosion). 4-5 wr at best IMO ( be more than happy to admit it if I am wrong). He will be an average at best slot receiver. Far from a " Diamond in the ruff" like some people think.
I thought I remember reading Shakir had elite, “quickness” as in getting up to top speed quickly?
Expected Points Added. The most important NFL stat is also almost unknown.
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
So the defense should have given 0 yards? That’s your stance? Those yardage totals you mention wouldn’t have been enough for points assuming the Miami offense started anywhere from the 20-35 yard line as is typical if not for the turnovers. No one should EVER expect a defense to give up 0 yards. That’s just “ridiculous”.
Obviously it’s no so simple as just saying the defense or offense was the worst unit of the two. Both units made mistakes and both made good plays. However, you seem to be taking the stance that the defense shouldn’t allow points regardless of field position, and that take is not based on reality. When a team scores, the vast majority of the time, the scoring is done against the defense (that’s the nature of the game of football). However, it’s not out of question to attribute blame to the offense/special teams when those units give the ball to the opposing team in immediate scoring position.
See how I qualify my statements and actually acknowledge both sides of discussion? Those that stand on their high horse and don’t acknowledge both sides of a discussion come across as disingenuous and pushing an agenda, making it much harder to to give that person the benefit of the doubt. It would be wise to acknowledge your point while conceding that it’s not 100% definitive, but rather a point of view based on personal observations (of which you have shared). However, it’s still a point of view and not the definitive truth, and you seem to be forgetting that part.