Billl
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Posts posted by Billl
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Hodges didn’t throw a TD the rest of the season, nor did he crack 100 yards in either of the remaining games. He averaged 1.11 air yards per attempt against the Bills...the average pass attempted barely crossed the line of scrimmage. The next week? He averaged -.35 air yards per attempt. I’ve never even heard of that before.
Hodges is horrific. Trying to spin it any other way is laughable. Their defense was very good, though. Their offense turned it over 5 times that game, and they held the Bills to 17 points. (FTR, Pittsburgh closed as a 1 point favorite.)
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He’s literally not asking for more money. He’s asking for the exact contract that’s been offered minus the fifth year.
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12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
What are you talking about? Turned what down?
The contract he just signed, obviously.
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2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:
NFC has some of the best run offenses in the league.
Cowboys play Zeke, Saquan, and Guice 6 times.
Seattle, 49ers, Packers, Saints. Its definitely an area of the D they'll need.
I still don't see the Cowboys giving up draft capital or any team doing so in a season that potentially could be upended by the Covid. It wont but I think it might make teams leery about trading 1st or 2nd round picks.
Who’d they trade Zeke to?
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12 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
No. They'll just have to find a way to get an extra 6.5 sacks out of their front seven. And if they succeed they'll be even better as presumably they'll actually have both safeties in coverage.
That should be simple enough. Just tell their front 7 to get a bunch more sacks. Why stop at 6.5, though. Tell them to get 20 more sacks and tell their other Defensive Backs to get a dozen more INTs. Then you don’t have to pay anyone to play Adams’s position. Just play 11 on 10.
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2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:
Frankly, Dak is not likely to be any better than he has shown, the word “plateaued” comes to mind, he’s good but not real good. Paying him that kind of money is a waste of your number one resource, ? ?
How did he plateau when last season he had far and away the best season of his career?
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3 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:
He signed a contract-he has no leverage.
I love this comment. It gets posted every time this situation occurs no matter how many times it’s proven wrong. Of course he has leverage. He’s using it right now. There is a 100% chance that he eventually gets a new contract. He is a GREAT player, easily the best on the team. Drafting him is the best move they’ve made in years.
Terrible franchises lose when they play hardball with great players. Bill and the Patriots have the juice to screw players. Gase and the Jets don’t. The more they piss off Adams, the less they will get if they have to trade him. See this thread if you’re wondering how this will play out.
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I envy the life of someone who has time to worry that the NFL might treat Kaepernick too well.
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5 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:
Show me anywhere drops are mentioned. No sign that it was even tracked.
The variables that factor into the formula don’t matter for the sake of this question. What matters is that having a completion percentage below the expected level is bad and vice versa.
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18 minutes ago, Irv said:
My parents encouraged me to run with the scissors.
If all of our parents had done the same, we’d have herd immunity by now. As it is, were years away from a vaccine. I’m drinking fish tank cleaner just to be safe.
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3 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:
Yes! So doesn’t that mean that Dak was helped by his line and WR And Josh was held back by his. To me based on numbers and eyes it was the drops that really hurt Joshs numbers. Someone might have the drop % relative to average but about 3% seems right.
Yeah I couldn’t make sense of what did and don’t go into it exactly. I think average line and separation and bad drop numbers makes sense to me if that’s what they are saying.
No. It means that, when controlling for all of those factors, both should have been able to complete 62.6% of their passes. Dak was especially accurate allowing his receivers to catch more passes. Josh...wasn’t. He was one of the very worst in the league even when grading him on a curve that includes drops. Had his receivers dropped fewer passes, his expected completion percentage would have been higher than 62.6%.
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2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:
Guess I’m confused. It says Josh should’ve had a higher completion percentage based on the other factors. For the QBs with a positive factor it says that their expected completion percentage was lower than actual. Pretty sure I got it correct. Other players with negative +/- (and closer to Allen than the ones you listed) are Mahomes and Jackson. Pretty sure that +/- is how mich your team helped or hindered.
The last 3 columns show the actual completion percentage, the expected completion percentage, and how much better or worse than expected each QB did. Josh and Dak were expected to complete 62.6% of their passes when adjusting for things like drops, pressure, etc. Dak completed 65.1% (+2.5%) and Josh completed 58.9% (-3.7%).
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Just now, inaugural balls said:
So much so, I don’t bother to look both ways. ?
To do so would be INSANE!
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3 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:
Supposedly protection and separation are accounted for in the XCOMP%. Some factors not accounted for would be drops, tipped passes and the weather, mostly wind effects. At least it is not stated that they are but maybe they are under the "and more" designation. Also, totally out of the mix is the decision made about where the ball went. So, there is a hodgepodge of factors that would effect both the comp% and the XCOMP%, including the accuracy of the throw.
- Completion Probability
- The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.
- Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP)
- Using a passer’s Completion Probability on every play, determine what a passer’s completion percentage is expected to be.
Interestingly enough, Josh and Dak were both expected to complete exactly 62.6% of their passes.
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4 minutes ago, ogham26 said:
people will continue to test positive and be fine. with no vaccine positive tests could continue forever. You want to just keep all sports an everything closed until a vaccine? insanity.
It is literally INSANE to worry about a global pandemic rather than people getting liquored up and jumping through tables. People need to get their priorities straight.
1 minute ago, inaugural balls said:You’re lucky. My parents made us play in traffic.
Sounds like you’ve built up an immunity to jaywalking.
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2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:
I'm reading this differently. Josh is low on the expected completion percentage (29th of 39), but was one of the most negatively effected by those parameters as demonstrated in +/- (this is where he ranks 35th) which is just completion percentage - expected completion percentage (per glossary). So this means he had below average help with respect to line and separation. This better aligns with my eyes that while our line got better it was still only average and that while better our receivers didnt seem to get a ton of separation (also drops).
Someone else let me know if I'm reading the link wrong.
Unless David Blough, Gardner Minshew, Dwayne Haskins, and Josh Allen blew the rest of the QBs out of the water, I think it’s safe to say you’re reading it backwards. Those 4 had the biggest negative discrepancy between expected completion percentages and their actual completion percentages.
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22 hours ago, Putin said:
So you’re saying I could be showed the door and can take my white privilege with me ? What is this world coming too ? Scary times that’s for sure !!!
I had no idea how victimized you were. Best if you just hole up in your safe space where you won’t have to watch those mean people you’ll never meet kneel for 90 seconds.
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4 hours ago, Putin said:
How many people here can peacefully protest at work ? No not during lunch break but during actual work time that you are getting paid for , can a cashier at a grocery get on his knee for 5 minutes and peacefully protest while there’s 20 people waiting line ?
Or maybe I can call my boss and tell him I had to shut down the rig ( oil production) because my guys wanted to peacefully protest?
Most of us have two options either follow the company policy OR find another jobGO BILLS !!!
Every single one of us can protest at work. If you're not important enough to matter, you can be fired for it. If you're important enough, you won't.
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16 hours ago, blacklabel said:
His arm seems to be shot. Even when be could've played last season they rolled with Kyle Allen and then let Cam go this year. Also drafted Will Grier. I just think the injuries have really caught up with him.
That’s last season. You said he’s played poorly for the last 2 seasons, and that isn’t the case at all.
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7 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:
How about we send LJ back in time to the era when QBs actually got hit .... hard..... a lot.
Then, and only then can you make a fair comparison.
Good thing he’s playing in an era when if you sneeze on a QB, it’s fifteen yards. You sneeze a second time and your out of the game. Same thing for hitting receivers.
Such a soft league for QBs yet Allen has been knocked out of multiple games already. Bledsoe never sniffed an MVP, while Jackson was the second unanimous winner in history.
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11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I disagree Allen is absolutely in that top tier athlete category. He’s actually a superior athlete to Watson, Mahomes and Wilson. If you look at the next gen stats he was second to only Lamar in top end speed (at least I think). He was at like 21 MPH. Allen was also a 3 sport star in high school. He may not be the QB that those others are yet but he absolutely is in the elite athlete tier. This chart is a touch dated but he’s as big and fast as Cam:
They measure all of this at the combine, and he ran a 4.76. You can’t compare playing 3 sports in high school to being offered millions to play in MLB. It’s laughable to compare him athletically to guys who could play multiple sports professionally, especially when those guys are light years better at the sport Josh does play. Watson had a better 40 time, a better vertical, a better shuttle, etc. Josh had better velocity on his throws.
Two of the biggest plays in the postseason were runs by Watson (throwing on the run after breaking out of a sack) and Mahomes (torching the Titans for a 30+ yard TD). They run every bit as well as Allen, but they prefer to pick their spots because they throw so well. When the season was on the line and they ran, they were elite runners, though. Either of them could put up similar rushing numbers to Josh if they had 100+ attempts.
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18 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:flash in the panphrase of flash
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a thing or person whose sudden but brief success is not repeated or repeatable.
Maybe he goes on to have an amazing career. But it will take ten years minimum before we know.Bledsoe didn’t miss a ton of games.... running around like a chicken with its head cut off is not a recipe for a long NFL career.
Good thing he led the NFL in TD passes, then.
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42 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:
Bledsoe has a much stronger arm than LJ.
One of the reasons I’m high on Josh.When LJ gets to a Super Bowl we can talk.
Love me some cannon armed, prototypical pocket passing QBs.10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:Bledsoe did it for a lot of years at a near HOF level. Lamar has done it for one.
Lamar is going to be tested increasingly in the coming couple of seasons, as teams game plan for him and get used to him. Also, defenses will adjust because there's Lamar and Kyler and to a lesser extent Mayfield and probably a few more. End of the day, you have to be a superior leader (which Lamar may be), a superior thrower, and a superior student of the game. Lamar hasn't shown he's there yet.
Lamar is 19-3 as a starter with 2 of those losses being against the Mahomes and the Chiefs...and he’s 22. He’s already far superior to Bledsoe’ best.
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6 hours ago, Putin said:
Didn’t we waste a 1st round pick on EJ few years ago ? And then replaced him with Tyrod Taylor ?
EJ was dumped 2 games into his sophomore season. Taylor was dumped for Nathan Peterman after making the playoffs.
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Bills troll Steelers' first voice tweet
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
So let me make sure I follow you here. You post about what they did BEFORE Buffalo because obviously that’s meaningful, but when I respond with what happened AFTER they played, nobody gives a flying **** because that’s irrelevant. Makes sense. (Never mind the fact that the come from behind win prevented what would otherwise have been a 5 game losing streak to end the season.)