Mikey152
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Posts posted by Mikey152
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Three things and I am gonna move on from the thread:
- regrading the rape charges, none of us should be playing morality police here…we should have learned our lesson. The Bills take that kind of thing seriously, so if they’re good, we should be good.
- regarding never playing football or defensive line…let’s not make it out to be rocket science. It’s defensive line. That’s where every coach puts the big dumb guys. Most of what you learn playing defensive line beyond the basic rules of football is how to whip the man across from you…pretty much the same thing you learn in wrestling.
The reason there aren’t more wrestlers in football is because most of them aren’t big enough to play on the line. And to those that say it hasn’t happened very often in the past, most guys who dedicate their life to a sport to the point where they win a gold medal aren’t only 24 when they decide to move on. More like 34. It’s rare that an elite AND accomplished athlete changes sports at such a young age.
- lastly, I find this whole thing ironic. Not more than a month ago, quite a few people on this board were talking about how they could scout players better than pro scouts and Beane EVEN THOUGH THEY NEVER WERE PRO SCOUTS. Whole threads about how experience doesn’t really matter. Unless you are a DL, apparently…then you need years of experience tackling dummies in pads.
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21 minutes ago, BearNorth said:
I've known a couple national champion wrestlers. The explosion and quickness in tight spaces should translate, and every wrestler understands leverage. Stephen Neal [Pats] started on a SB winner, has a world championship & 2 NCAA D-I titles in wrestling, Jim Nance [Pats] and Curley Culp [Chiefs] were national champion wrestlers who were NFL standouts.
Don’t forget Carlton Hasselrig. NCAA champ, same height and weight as Steveson, never played football and went to the pro bowl with the steelers.
Playing on the interior of a football line translates quite a bit to wrestling…Tim Krumrie was a big believer in that back in the day.
this isn’t just a wrestler, he is perhaps the best heavyweight wrestler ever. And he is only 24. Why not?
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1 hour ago, stevewin said:
Gonna hang out with her next week..
(she’s married to Ricky Fowler and usually at the Memorial)
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Worked for Carlton Hasselrig...why not give it a shot?
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35 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
You appear to believe that PBF81 doesn't have the right to do his own analysis, unless he's able to articulately explain the offensive concept, the defense, and WR keys. If he does his own analysis anyways, without understanding those things, then that's a form of hubris. Unless he understands what he's seeing at that level, his conclusions can be ignored or dismissed as the parroting of someone else's opinions.
I myself don't claim to understand football at that level. But when I watched the video footage of every pass attempt for Coleman, there sure were a lot of plays where the defender was right there. When a pass attempt to Coleman fell incomplete, the typical cause was a defender right there, making a play on the ball.
There are some posters here who understand football at a deep level. If one of them says, "Hey! Coleman was a lot better at separation than it may have seemed, due to X, Y, and Z," then of course I'll listen. But I'm not aware that there's any sort of consensus to that effect, among posters with that level of football expertise.
From NFL.com's draft profile for Coleman: "Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches."
If you want to disagree with that, fine. Except in matters of principle, I like hearing both sides of the discussion. In this case, however, I haven't heard a single argument against any of PBF81's positions. The only thing I'm hearing from those who disagree with him is wholesale explanations as to why every word he types should be dismissed or ignored.
Like I said, there is nothing wrong with having an opinion. there is nothing wrong with doing your own "analysis", either. Lets be real, though...we're all just fans, and most of us are just casual fans who may or may not have played some football at some point in our lives. Our idea of breaking down Keon Coleman's tape is 100% outcome dependent you walk in with the idea that he "doesn't get separation", watch some plays where he isn't wide open, and confirm said opinion.
But I have some counter questions, like...compared to who? What kind of coverage? Who was covering? What route? Was the ball on time? ALL of these are important when grading something as simple as separation, and most of them are not questions a casual fan could answer.
So sure, you can have your opinion...but be real. Just say "I read he can't separate, and based on my untrained eye I can see why they say that". Not " based on my hours of film study, I believe Keon Coleman cannot separate...anyone who disagrees show me where on the tape I am wrong" like they are some sort of authoritative source. Nobody takes that seriously, man. Even if he is right, even a broken clock is right twice a day...
As for Coleman, I haven't watched all his plays. But the kid was a major recruit AT POINT GUARD. If you think he isn't athletic enough to separate, you're insane. So if he has had issues, it is more than likely things like inexperience, scheme, etc...
Side note: If a WR separates and the CB recovers before the ball arrives, that is on the QB, not the WR.
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22 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
People get so caught up into height weight 40 times vertical jump
And it is important... But people don't realize that these are all world class athletes.. every single division one football player down to the kids at the University at Buffalo are dripping with talent
It's the things like coaching, and work ethic,and destination and want that determine the next level of your career
For so many players the difference between being a star or nothing is draft destination... That's it... So many players including Brady and Patrick mahomes wouldn't be who they were if they didn't link up with the coaches they got
Patrick mahomes getting drafted by the Chicago bears 7 years ago is not the same Patrick mahomes as today
Every single player taken in the draft has immense talent from the first overall pick to the guys in the sixth round... It's crazy that people are poo-pooing on keon Coleman a guy that was universally considered a top 50 prospect
Anybody who's a top 50 prospect in the NFL has a lot of talent and the potential to be really good... It all comes down to how much he wants it and the coaching he gets
And opportunity...
But along these lines, I still remember something Tom Brady said way back when asked about guys like Alex Smith (the 49ers version) and Vince Young. He was talking about how he had this huge advantage because he had been running basically the same system his whole time in the NFL. Practice was about perfection, not learning, for him. He could install stuff from 5 years ago for an opponent if it gave them an advantage in a given week.
He also got thrown in the fire early. Had to make reads and play QB because he was slow. Thinks a running QB sometimes struggles at being a QB because they can escape with their legs...it's not that it isn't valuable, just that it can limit your growth if you let it. Sometimes the most physically gifted guys have poor work ethic and/or skills because they never needed them before the NFL
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1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said:
You make it sound as though bias is a quality possessed by PBF81 alone. Something which uniquely taints his analyses, in comparison to the unbiased analyses you could get elsewhere.
We all have biases. You have a very strong bias against PBF81. That's why you haven't listened to a single thing he's had to say, except for the purpose of dismissing it.
There's a chance the Bills' front office's assessment of Coleman is accurate, and that he will turn into the player we all hope he becomes. But any draft pick involves risk. The specific risk with Coleman is that PBF81 is right. It's not as though PBF81 made up stuff out of whole cloth, for the sole purpose of bringing down your mood. I've watched every pass attempt to Coleman for his 2023 season, and I can see why PBF81 is saying the stuff he is. I'm not saying his predictions are right or wrong. I strongly hope Coleman becomes an excellent receiving option for Josh Allen. Allen definitely deserves a better supporting cast than he's gotten thus far!
I firmly believe that differences in perspective can be extremely valuable to this board. That value creation happens most when people explain why they believe what they believe. The next time you respond to one of PBF81's posts, I would strongly appreciate if you asked yourself the question, how can I respond to this, in the way which adds good value to this board?
Here's my problem with guys like PBF81...he didn't come up with his "Keon Coleman can't separate" narrative on his own. He read something that someone wrote, who read something that someone else wrote, who all trace back to a single source (Harman) about how how per some metrics Keon Coleman couldn't separate at FSU and he should be a big slot or he will flop in the NFL. Now everyone else is parroting "big slot" based on their "film study", including MB scouts.
When questioned, the old fallback is "I do better than NFL front offices, look up my stats!" or "lets review the tape together" Please. You want to review tape together? Instead of telling me when Coleman got separation...PBF81 or any armchair scout, please breakdown the first three plays from the video. Tell me about the offensive concept, the defense, and the WR keys/reads. I want to see if you actually know what you are talking about, or if you are literally just watching for outcomes. That will tell me if you are worth listening to or not.
Hypothetical? Fine...everyone has an opinion. But acting like you are a football expert...come on man. Save it for someone that is more gullible
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5 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:
One thing that remains funny to me is how often people on this board paint McDermott as a control freak, while simultaneously giving him no credit for having a massive say in the selection and development plan of our "Parody of a QB Prospect" Joshua Patrick Allen.
Or the offense we played with Josh as the QB.
"McDermott is a control freak" and "Mcdermott loves ball control"
And yet, under his tenure they pass a ton and have had a top offense. So either he isn't in control, or he isn't a strict ball control coach.
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14 minutes ago, Rubes said:
Yeah, I don't know. We all thought similarly last year when we went into the season without a proven MLB, and thought he'd be crazy to stick with Bernard.
Turned out to be the right choice, but it's not like anyone knew Bernard would excel the way he did.
I just think he's taking the same approach this time with the WR position.
You know, for a team that has the second most wins in football over the last 5 years...there is A LOT of distrust regarding the FO and coaching staff. I know that stems from a lack of SB victories (or even appearances), but wow.
Everyone loved the Von Miller signing until they didn't...now they want to repeat it at WR AND give picks??? You'd think situations like Bernard would temper opinions, but people wiped that egg right off and got right back on the no-name train.
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18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
Then stop it! I don't believe that I mentioned McDermott once in that post other than for the factually validated, by him primarily, reference to his definition of complimentary football and only in passing reference. That's it. The post was about Coleman, Diggs, etc.
And frankly, you know what has to absolutely stop, is how he's got precious little to do with any issues that this team has, particularly in games like 13-Seconds and i the playoffs more generally. What has to stop is the incessant excuse-making and how little if any of it relates to him. These implications that his signature isn't all over this team are childish and absurd. We're the only team in the entire league that isn't defined by its head coach's overall methodology apparently.
As long as you started it and we're in full disclosure mode.
You can't have it both ways...Mcdermott has been the head coach here for 7 seasons, yet his fingerprints are only on the second half of 2023? Ok. Lest we forget Mcdermott fired his original OC to hire Daboll, but of course BD did everything behind Mcdermott's back, right?
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1 hour ago, PBF81 said:
Sorry it's taken me so long to get back to you, been on the road and no time for anything fun.
You are correct there, the absolute best QBs in the history of the game, at least in the modern era, were excellent if not masterful at that "all over the field," or short-medium passing game, which is referred to as the high-percentage passing game as you are aware. There's a reason for that title, ... high-percentage. LOL
Your statement about Coleman making "big plays out of bubble screens" is issue-laden. To start, his bubble-screen or otherwise screen plays at FSU rarely amounted to anything significant. Again, I'll itemize all of his plays, but again, if you watch that every pass video it's beyond clear. So the question that begs itself, is whether or not, having not been successful at it in college, he'll be successful in the NFL. The answer seems obvious, and back when we drafted Watkins, who's background was similar, yet with him simply possessing notably greater speed, not even atleticism, Watkins too made a living off of bubble screens in college, which simply do not work to that extent in the NFL.
Regarding your bringing the D up closer to the line statement, that sounds great, but it's also tremendously oversimplified. And Coleman isn't the type that even if he were to catch a bubble-screen pass, that he'd be difficult to run down. Again, I think you'd really get a lot from that every pass video. I've gotten the same exact feeling about him that I got from Hardy whenever we drafted him, and Watkins more recently just on a lower level. ... from that video, hard evidence.
As to the "more weapons," we'll see. Numbers of weapons are one thing, but it's the quality, and as you and I often disagree, on how they are used, which appears to be a quite serious shortcoming for our offense this season notwithstanding. We'll see but my confidence is the lowest it's been since pre-Daboll.
As to your last two points, the second one you are correct, we have no clue, but recognize this, if it is true, then we were seriously lied to all of last offseason/preseason/season. That doesn't sit very well, or shouldn't. Also, when can you believe these guys then, you can't.
As to the first point there, Brady wanting to diversify the offense more, we'll have to disagree on that. It's clear from where a lot of us sit, that Brady's being driven by McD's Complimentary Football approach, which focuses on defense, rushing, and a shorter passing game. How do we know this, in word-salad fashion, McD's told us so. Make no mistake, Brady takes his general offensive marching orders from McD. He owes McD for the promotion, he's not going to be at odds with his overall strategy, for as lacking as it may be.
Either way, let's look at the primary narrative regarding Diggs. It's that "he lost a step" last season. Let's forget for a moment that that step was seemingly lost from one game to another, essentially when Brady took over, which would be the first time in NFL history that a WR "lost a step" to that extent within a few days. If the narrative holds true, and we'll find out for certain this fall, then one would expect that among his worst (aka most tapered off) games, would be the last of the regular season. But watch this highlight video from that game, and only two plays are being referenced here, not the entire game. But check out at the 2:53 mark where he dusts Ramsey, does that jibe with the narrative? Then again at the 5:00 mark where Diggs actually had to slow down after beating Apple before making a great grab of an underthrown ball, does that fit the narrative?
Also, look at how Diggs is used otherwise, that's telling too. Also, an example of what I mentioned before, that we'll get into more, look at the 4:33 mark, if Allen hits Cook as soon as he sees him break, that's a gain of 7 or 8, more if Apple misses the tackle, on 1st-and-10, but instead he waits, hoping something will open up and then throws it to Knox on the sideline. Sometimes it works deeper, sometimes not, but we're talking about him focusing on the high-percentage passing game, which would have been the short out to Cook there. The question isn't which had the better outcome, but in terms of how he'll be used this season, which was the smarter play. There are dozens and dozens of those from last season.
His production absolutely plummeted from 87 YPG to 45, half of that. But most importantly, if Diggs really lost a step, it's odd that his Yards-per-Reception-Before-Catch dropped by over 30% from 8.2 to 5.6 yards, but this Yards-per-Reception-After-Catch remained the same at 3.7.
Anyway, here's that highlight video;
This "it's Mcdermott's fault" narrative has to stop. Sean Mcdermott has been the coach here for ALL of Josh Allen's career. He was the head coach when we passed on practically every play. You act like Daboll just didn't listen to him and everyone since is his puppet. That's ridiculous.
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22 hours ago, FireChans said:
Why did the Niners draft a first round WR when they had Deebo and Aiyuk?
Contracts?
6 hours ago, FireChans said:Does it prevent you from throwing to JAGs like Sherfield who alligator arm passes from your generational QB in playoff games?
cough kincaid cough or would you have preferred a receiver with that pick?
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Flat out...fans are playing fantasy football. So are draft analysts and talking heads. They look at these players based on a series of numbers and act like they are plug and play.
Need I remind you Mike Mayock was a GM for a hot minute...remind me how that went.
Most of the "draft experts" on this board formulate their boards based on what they read on the internet, which is in turn probably sourced from somewhere else on the internet, which is sourced form an insider using information from scouts and coaches.
Nobody here is just watching a bunch of college football and coming up with their "board" based on what they saw. You're already biased toward industry beliefs before you even start your e v a l.
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5 minutes ago, Augie said:
The Chiefs already have some guy playing TE, and I hear he’s pretty good. Their “waste of time” is going to the HOF, despite his choice in women. 😋
We had a few decades of mostly future truck drivers and gym teachers at the position. It made sense for us to invest there while the Chiefs were looking at other needs. I like our TE room a lot. One more clear starting quality NFL WR would make me feel MUCH better about our team, but if we have to roll with what we have, I’ll have to live with that.
Sorry if I missed something coming in late or took something out of context.
That was the point...they didn't draft a TE because they had one...The Bills didn't draft receivers high because they had them already.
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23 hours ago, FireChans said:
We can compare all the picks if you'd like (not including playoffs because that's too much math).
Bills WR production of their two fifth rounders:
49 catches 772 yards 3 TD's
Chiefs WR production of their 2 seconds and third:
163 catches 1772 yards 11 TD's
Yeah, looks like a landslide.
Clearly the Bills value TE more than the Chiefs...drafted Knox in the third round AND Kincaid in the first. Meanwhile, the Chiefs haven't spent a Day one or two pick on a TE since 2013.
Clearly Chiefs think TE is a waste of space on their roster.
Did you ever think maybe the Chiefs spent more on receiver the last couple years because they didn't have Diggs and Davis???
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On 4/28/2024 at 4:53 PM, Einstein said:
I would like to see some non-anecdotal data for this assertion.
A few years back an analysis was run on the Bills draft record during their drought. Nearly 20 years of data. In that span, it was shown via analysis that if the Bills front office had simply followed a publicly available player ranking (think: Kiper, McShay, etc), they would have drafted more impact players than they actually did.
A similar one was down for Oakland I believe.
Thats right - the professional NFL front offices of multiple teams, with access to dozens of scouts, in-person interviews, and player data galore, was beaten out by a generic player ranking list.Too many people buy into the “expert” fallacy. That simply because someone does something for a living, that they are better at that job than someone who doesn’t do it for a living. It’s not always accurate.
Retrospective validation is inherently flawed. It assumes that the only variable is the player, as if they are just plug and play.
Example: Twin kickers, identical in every single way...one goes to a dome and the other goes to Buffalo. Who do you has the higher odds of winding up with a better FG%?
Things like coaches, teammates, personal life, etc all have impact on how well a guy performs. Using such a simple model as comparing the actual draft to a big board is incredibly simplistic...
Everyone likes to say the Bills are lucky because they drafted Josh...as if they had nothing to do with his development. Or that Buffalo wasn't a good fit as a town.
Sure, general consensus on a players value can be guided by group think...everyone watches these guys play. But lets be real...most of these big boards are based on what industry guys tell these prognosticators. They talk to scouts and GMs. Their opinion isn't just their own. But it is generic. There is no way to know what a team values or needs better than the team picking.
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Something you all seem to be ignoring in this massive complain fest is....
The Bills have been pretty freaking good for most of the time Josh, McD and BB have been here. Like, outside of his rookie season, they have been in the playoffs every year and most seasons they are picking in the late 20's with one of the best records in the league.
By that point in the early rounds, you are kind of stuck with what other teams didn't take. Reaching for a WR at that point is silly.
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1 minute ago, Logic said:
Thanks, Shaw.
I DO think, as you say in your last paragraph, that he has a good chance to succeed. And maybe I should have more faith in the coaches to help ensure that he does.
I think what I fear is that -- given his young age and how raw he is, generally speaking -- that it might take him a while to succeed. That he might be a premiere receiver in this league by year three, but the Bills very much need him in year one.
Now, if the Bills had made moves to NOT need him so much in year one, then it would be a different story. But they didn't. If Coleman isn't being counted on to be a big factor until, say, week 6, then it currently means that Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter or Tyrell Shavers is being counted on during that time instead, and you'll have to forgive me for being not at all confident in that being a good thing.
I already mentioned strongly hoping that Beane keeps adding to the WR room, and you mentioned that you think he's likely not done adding there. I really hope this is the case. Right now, for the Bills to succeed optimally on offense, they're going to NEED Coleman to hit the ground running. If they put themselves in less of a position to NEED that by adding a capable veteran, I'll feel a lot better about things.Two things:
First, the nice thing about Coleman is his best attribute(s) are related to his natural athleticism. So, while he might not be a focal point at the start of the season, he CAN be useful on the field day 1 playing what I would call the "Gabe Davis" role (ie the X receiver who blocks, runs a limited route tree and uncovers on scramble drills). I think his ball skills compared to Gabe give him a chance to be an upgrade in that role from day 1.
Second, I think the Diggs targets are going to Kincaid, Shakir and Samuel (or maybe even Hamler works his way into the rotation). 12 personnel, for example, takes lot of pressure off any outside receiver.
Eventually, maybe Coleman becomes a force...but I think just asking him to win in the redzone and on scramble drills, pick up some YAC in the quick pass game, and do a half decent job as a blocker is all he really needs to do to help this offense be efficient.
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On 4/29/2024 at 1:04 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:
Agreed, gotta go medium with a little blood steak wise. I do hope he can talk Coleman into working with Moulds. I also think Shakir is going to turn some heads this year.
Side note, that's not blood...it's myoglobin.
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26 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
Well, we do really need another slot WR. 🤔🙄
Maybe we can come up with a new formation featuring three Slot WRs, no splits, and two RBs. Seems to fit with McD's complimentary football MO.
Funny, everyone just slammed Xavier Worthy who's similarly sized but faster.
This place ... LOL
To be fair…if you run two TE and they both play on the ball (split or not), the rest of the skill players can line up wherever you want.
also, lots of teams line up “slot” receivers on the line against zone and/or off coverage..
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5 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:
23 games, 42 recs, 620 yards, 3 tds. The definition of a JAG.
Numbers without context…how lazy is that?
most of those games were as a rookie behind Sutton and Jeudy. Then he had hamstring issues, a torn ACL, a torn pec and heart issues (likely viral) right around when Hamlin almost died and semi-retired.
We are talking skills, here. Did you watch him at Penn State? Or as a rookie in Denver? He is lightning in a bottle. I’m not putting much stock in him breaking out due to his lengthy injury history, but I could easily see him being a Hollywood Brown clone if he can stay healthy.
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7 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:
Lol, its really not. He's tiny and constantly injured. He is a JAG in a league full of these guys.
A guy like Justin Shorter was excellent on special teams and its something Beane mentioned last year when they drafted him.
Unless Hamler can play special teams, he won't be the 6th WR.
I am under the assumption the Bills are adding another body to this group after June 1st.
He’s hardly a JAG…He is incredibly talented, and he might be the fastest guy on the team.
That said, his injury history is brutal. If he doesn’t make the team, it’s likely due to medical issues.
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1 hour ago, Simstim said:
I'm still watching, but it has raised a question for me - unrelated to football.
When Keon talked about cooking, he talked about pork chops with a sauce that sounded like he said Deer or Beer sauce. Is that correct? What type of sauce is it?
Deer. It's a Cajun gravy (like how Italians call pasta sauce gravy). Goolge cajun piquante sauce.
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Gronkowski, Kelce, Graham, Ward - Why do fans want want a Randy Moss type?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by Mikey152
Ok, let's try something here...
Lets assume the Bills throw the ball ~550 times this year, and the target breakdown is something like:
Cook - 50
Shakir - 80
Samuel - 80
Coleman - 70
Knox - 50
Kincaid - 120
MVS - 50
Everyone else - 50
And everyone is around the same ypt as last season
Cook - 8.2 (410)
Shakir - 13.6 (led NFL among qualifiers) (1088)
Samuel - 6.7 (536)
Coleman - 9.2 (this was Gabe's) (644)
Knox - 5.2 (260)
Kincaid - 7.4 (888)
MVS - 7.5 (375)
Everyone else - 7 (350)
That puts Josh at 4,551 yards passing (8.2 ypa), which would be a career high on what is also his lowest attempts since 2019.
Even if you see regression from Shakir and Coleman, that would likely be propped up by some positive regression from MVS (8.5 in 2022) Knox (8.0 in 2022) and Samuel (7.1 in 2022 and 8.8 in 2020 under Joe Brady)
I think a lot of you are underrating just how inefficient Diggs was last season with his targets. He was in line with a TE, not a #1 WR.