racketmaster
-
Posts
829 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by racketmaster
-
-
With the draft nearing, I wanted to take a closer look at 2 positions (WR, TE) that have been in the conversation for the Bills using their first round pick on. Metcalf and Hockenson have been the 2 names most regularly mentioned if the Bills were to use pick #9 on WR or TE. Prior to the combine, I was on board with taking Hockenson, even if it meant taking him at 9. I still would not be mad at the selection (he should be a quality player at the very least) but I think it would not be the best way to maximize pick value. I thought it might be worth looking into what draft rounds produce quality and elite players at the WR and TE positions.
What I chose to use as a measure of quality was receiving yards as I thought it was the best measure for receiving targets. With WRs, I looked at the top 30 ranked WRs in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Top 30 WRs, I deemed quality WRs. I also looked at the top 15 WRs for the same years and I viewed them as elite WRs. I did the same for the TE position except I chose the top 25 for quality players and top 10 for elite TEs. The reason for the difference was that there are just less productive receiving TEs than WRs. For each of the WRs and TEs that made the lists, I recorded the rounds they were drafted. I wanted to see what the percentages were for drafted rounds for the quality and elite WRs and TEs. So what did it show?
2016, 2017 and 2018 TOP 30 WRs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS:
ROUND 1: 31% (28)
ROUND 2: 24% (22)
ROUND 3: 13% (12)
ROUND 4: 1% (1)
ROUND 5: 11% (10)
ROUND 6: 5% (4)
ROUND 7: 5% (4)
UDFA: 10% (9)
2016, 2017 AND 2018 TOP 15 (ELITE) WRs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS:
ROUND 1: 38% (17)
ROUND 2: 24% (11)
ROUND 3: 7% (3)
ROUND 4: 0% (0)
ROUND 5: 11% (5)
ROUND 6: 7% (3)
ROUND 7: 2% (1)
UDFA: 11% (5)
2016, 2017 and 2018 TOP 25 TEs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS:
ROUND 1: 24% (15)
ROUND 2: 18% (17)
ROUND 3: 26% (19)
ROUND 4: 8% (5)
ROUND 5: 10% (6)
ROUND 6: 4% (5)
ROUND 7: 0% (0)
UDFA: 10% (8)
2016, 2017 AND 2018 TOP 10 (ELITE) TEs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS:
ROUND 1: 20% (6)
ROUND 2: 30% (9)
ROUND 3: 30% (9)
ROUND 4: 3% (1)
ROUND 5: 3% (1)
ROUND 6: 7% (2)
ROUND 7: 0% (0)
UDFA: 7% (2)
WR POSITION: The best chance at success comes from the first round. 31% of quality (top 30) WRs and 38% of the elite WRs are from the first round. The next best round is the second round with 24% and 24% for both quality and elite production. There is a significant drop off after the second round. Based on the numbers and the fact that the WR position is expected to be extremely deep in 2019, I think the value lies in the 2nd round. It seems likely that a WR such as AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler or a Debo Samuel will be available when the Bills pick in the 2nd round. If the Bills determine that they want another WR, the 2nd round is where they should go looking. The numbers between the first and second round are close enough and the depth is great enough to think the best way to maximize pick value would be take a WR in the 2nd.
TE POSITION: This position was even more interesting to me. The 3rd round actually had a higher percentage (26% as opposed to 24%) of quality players than what came from the 1st round. This even held when looking at the elite TEs in that both the 2nd and 3rd rounds had the highest percentage of elite receiving tight ends at 30% a piece. Based on the numbers and the fact that the tight end position is considered to be deep this year, waiting until the 3rd round appears to be the best way to maximize the value of selecting a tight end. In looking at the numbers, I changed my tune and would much prefer the Bills to wait on TE until the 2nd or even better the 3rd round. A player like Jace Sternberger, will be available in the 2nd and maybe even the 3rd round.
Waiting on WR and TE, will allow the Bills to attack the defensive side of the ball and in particular the defensive line. It is the strength of the draft and the Bills could really use a pass rusher and some youth up front. In sum, I am completely fine with passing on Metcalf and Hockenson in order to grab a defensive lineman because we still have a good chance of finding talented WRs and TEs in the 2nd and 3rd.
-
4
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:
You think? He weighed at 249 at the combine and showed in his workouts he can actually play at that weight, unlike a lot of guys (Oliver, Kyler) who beef up for the weigh-in and then don't work out. Hughes is 255 if I remember correctly?
I believe 249 is a 25 lbs. gain since the season so you'd think he could put on a little more at 6'5".
Exactly, Burns may have added weight for the combine but he still performed athletically at a high level. He matched Von Miller's 40 time and still posted a solid 3 cone score. Look at Maybin (who many detractors want to compare Burns to). Maybin bulked up but then put up a mediocre 40 time and a bad 3 cone score. He was not able to maintain the same speed and athleticism by adding all that weight. Every player is different and Burns seems to have been able to maintain the necessary athleticism while adding the additional weight.
-
1
-
-
Brian Burns (BB)/Von Miller (VM)/Aaron Maybin (AM) NFL Combine Numbers:
Height: 6’5” (BB) and 6’3” (VM) and 6’4” (AM)
Weight: 249lbs (BB) and 246lbs (VM) and 249lbs (AM)
Arm Length: 33 7/8 (BB) and 33 ½ (VM) and Not Listed
Vertical: 36 (BB) and 37 (VM) and 38 (AM)
Broad Jump: 129 (BB) and 126 (VM) and 124 (AM)
3 Cone: 7.01 (BB) and 6.70 (VM) and 7.52 (AM)
40 Dash: 4.53 (BB) and 4.53 (VM) and 4.78 (AM)
College Sacks:
Brian Burns had 8.5 (2016), 4.5 (2017) and 10 (2018) for 23 total Von Miller had 2 (2007), 3.5 (2008), 17 (2009) and 10.5 for a total of 33, Aaron Maybin had 4 (2007) and 12 (2008) for total of 16.
From the numbers, Burns appears closer in athleticism to Miller than he does to Maybin. Burns may have added some additional weight, but he was able to maintain elite level athleticism. Plus, Maybin really had 1 year of production at Penn State where as Burns had more productive career over a 3 year span that seems more similar to what Von Miller's career (multiple years with solid sack numbers).
-
I’ve moved away from the idea of Hockenson or Metkalf and Burns seems like a much better option at this point. Bills need an edge rusher in the worst way. It is probably the #1 need following free agency period.
Burns fits the freaky athletic profile that may really interest Beane with the 9th pick. His speed, bend, balance and array of pass rushing moves is impressive. We could still go back and get a wr, tight end or offensive tackle in the 2nd round to add to the offense as there is depth there. But the defense really needs an upgrade at pass rush and special edge rushers are usually found at the top of the draft.
-
2 hours ago, nucci said:
and Buffalo is Buffalo....Browns now have Beckham, Landry, Chubb, Mayfield and Njoku....that looks like a good offense and their D was good last year.
Just because the trade might work for Cleveland does not mean it would have worked for Buffalo. Seriously, how happy would OBJ have been had he been dealt to Buffalo? Most diva wrs want nothing to do with Buffalo at this point in time. It is completely true that Cleveland and Buffalo are not that different in terms of desirable markets, but their team and organizational structure is much different.
Cleveland has Jarvis Landry (OBJ's close friend and college teammate). He is the leader of the wrs in Cleveland and can help keep OBJ in check. Mayfield has worked out with OBJ and is a very strong personality, himself. Mayfield is an up and coming rock star and he won't be overshadowed by OBJ in Cleveland. Cleveland also has OBJ's college wrs coach so having Landry and the same college position coach in Cleveland is like having an LSU reunion of sorts. In addition, Cleveland has decided it is ready this year to push their chips into the center of the table. They have acquired a bunch of talent from previous drafts, trades and free agency. They believe they can win their division and be a contender in the AFC. And they might be right if all the parts come together.
In Buffalo, OBJ would not have had his close friend and college coach. Allen is a leader but he does not have the cache that Mayfield has right now. Mayfield has more "street cred" at this point and it is more likely that OBJ would view Mayfield as the leader and top dog on offense. In Buffalo, OBJ likely would have viewed himself as the "top dog" and feel more empowered. The situation could have easily become a negative one for Allen. Plus, Buffalo is an improving team but there is no sense that they are better than the Patriots right now. They are not ready to plant their flag for the 2019 season.
Again, the situation may work for a while in Cleveland before exploding down the road. With all the personalities there, it probably is only a matter of time as that is what generally happens with that many egos. Cleveland is banking on winning big before it does explode and I don't disagree with that thinking. Again, OBJ in Cleveland seems to "fit" while he would be a very "odd fit" in Buffalo.
-
3
-
-
1 minute ago, TDRupp said:
Zay Jones with Bills in 2019....
- Bills will not serious look at trading until and unless: 1. We get to August AND 2. we have another backup Outside WR ahead/equal to of him AND 3. a backup Slot WR ahead/equal of him
He is the primary backup at outside WR and likely slot WR right now, in my opinion.
Zay Jones comes to camp with the Bill's. McBeane loves to stack them and have depth in camp for competition and in case of injury.
If we draft another WR or two, high enough it possibly could change. If the Bill's focus on DE, DT, OL, TE in tgre first three to four picks, he is comixing to camp. Until then, sit back and relax. Zay is a cost controlled WR with 2 years left, lots of experience, that can serve as a backup/part-time player or starter, if needed b/c of injury!
This I tend to agree with and don't have an issue with. If the Bills don't draft a wr this year there is probably room to keep Jones as a primary backup wr as he could play multiple positions. His position versatility could be enough to warrant keeping him on the team in case there are injuries or if Foster takes a step back. I would be fine with that, but I would also be fine if the Bills just chose to move on from Jones and trade him for a pick or player at a position of need. To me he is replacement level wr so a smart street level free agent could fill his role as a backup wr.
2 minutes ago, eball said:One thing Zay really does have going for him is that this regime drafted him. I've been going back and forth on the will-he-be-here-or-not question but after a few days I'm back around to believing he will make the roster. I think he will actually benefit from the arrival of Brown and Beasley...two vets to learn from. To quote Saint Doug, "obviously" this is a huge year for him and I'm sure he knows that.
One thing we know is that Beane and McDermott want to create competition at every position. Jones has yet to really have to compete for a spot so far. That will change this year and maybe they keep Jones to see how he responds and for him to push the guys ahead of him in Brown, Beasley and Foster.
-
Alphadawg is right in that there is a myth that Zay Jones really came on for the Bills last season. He had some terrible games and big time drops down the stretch. Yes, he lit it up week 17 against the Dolphins who had checked out, but otherwise he was a pedestrian wr. Zay was terrible as a rookie and one of the most inefficient wrs in the NFL so it was hard not for him to improve upon his 2017 season.
Jones got 102 targets last year for a possession wr and turned that into a total of 652 yards on 52 receptions. If that is #1 or #2 wr type numbers then the standard is too low. I don't need Jones off the team and would be fine letting him actually COMPETE for a position. Jones was handed a starting position from the time he was drafted and has never EARNED any of his playing time. The wr position was gutted when he arrived and due to his draft status he has been given preferential treatment. He has had terrible performances and the team has continued to trot him out in starting roles. That will not happen this year. If Jones sees any significant action it will be because he earned it. Brown, Beasley and Foster are all ahead of Jones in the depth chart. He would have to make a significant jump in his play in order to leapfrog any of those 3. In reviewing actual talent and the needs of this team, I strongly believe that Duke Williams will outperform Jones for the 4th spot. Williams offers the bigger body, contested catch ability that Jones is unable to deliver. We don't have that from any of the top 3 wrs so Williams offers something different and I think Dabol is looking for wrs with different skill sets in his offense. And if we draft a wr high then we might be talking about fighting over a 5th spot as opposed to the 4th. Roberts was signed as a special teams return man so he is almost a lock to make the team and take one of the wr spots (Mckenzie probably loses his spot on the team as a result unless Jones is moved).
Personally, I have seen enough of Jones to say I would like to trade him for a later round pick especially if we draft a wr in the first 3 rounds. I try and look at what a player can and can't do and there is a lot that Jones has shown not to be able to do.
Zay Jones
Speed: Average at best and has shown almost no ability to get behind defenses
Ability to separate/quickness in an out of breaks: Average at best as he is frequently blanketed on routes
Routine Catching: Below average as there have been too many routine drops whether lack of concentration or lack of confidence
Contested Catches: Below average as he has not demonstrated the ability to go up and fight for jump balls or make tough catches with defenders on him
Run After Catch: Average at best as there has been nothing special with his elusiveness or ability to break tackles
Knowledge of position and playbook: Above average as it appears to be always in position and knows his assignments
Awareness when plays break down: Above average as he appears to be alert and to find open spots on scramble plays
There might be more areas to evaluate a wr but those are the big things that come to mind and Jones is below average in most areas. The best thing he does is know where to line up and what routes to run but as far as actual playmaking ability he has shown very little thus far. I guess anything can happen but I find it difficult to believe that Jones will all of a sudden make some big jump in athletic ability and playmaking in his 3rd season. He has been given tons of opportunities and displayed no real potential playmaking ability thus far which leads me to believe it is never going to happen with him.
As long as he does not complain about a reduced role then I don't care if he remains as a 4th, 5th or 6th wr. But if we could move him for a 5th or 6th I would do that as he has shown himself to be a replacement level wr thus far.
-
1
-
-
Love that the Bills have Brandon Beane as their GM. Bills finally have a top notch leader, probably the first since Polian left. We have seen all kinds come and go since Polian, many were strictly personnel men and others were just inexperienced and out of their element. Beane checks all the boxes: (1) Leader, (2) Communication skills, (3) Has an Organizational Vision/Plan, (4) Understands talent and value, (5) Willing to use all avenues to acquire talent, (6) Understands the salary cap and the business side, (7) Comfortable with surrounding himself with talented individuals, (8) Low ego and willing to share credit, (9) Competitive/Dedicated and fully committed to winning, (10) Has people skills and respectful to those in the organization, the players and the fans. I am fully confident that it is only a matter of time before the Bills become a consistent winner under Beane's watch.
-
1
-
-
Competition is good. Would like to see Bills draft a wr in the 3rd or 4th, possibly the 2nd if they have that wr rated highly. There is a lot of depth at wr and maybe an Isabella or Samuel slips to 3rd round. They would be under no pressure to start this year but could eventual slide into a starter spot in their 2nd or 3rd year replacing a veteran like Brown or Beasley.
-
Foster, Beasley, Brown, Williams, and Roberts for special teams. Bills would likely need to keep 6 wrs in order for Zay to make the team. I'm not sure if a team would be willing to trade for Jones but maybe Beane can work some of his magic and get a mid to late round pick for him.
-
I forgot to add that Beasley wears #11 so that gives the Bills another reason to move on from Jones. Lol
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Real McCoy said:
It's way, way to early to give on on Zay Jones. He's producing on a WR#2 level in his first couple seasons and building with Josh as we all witnessed as the season went on.
Trading Zay would honestly be stupid.
Zay was dreadful as a rookie and just below average last year. Only reason why he has been on the field so much is that the wr position was gutted before he arrived and he was a high draft pick of this regime. Man would have been cut as a rookie if he was a lower pick or drafted by previous regime. Unless he suddenly starts running faster, becomes quicker and develops stronger hands then he will not play over Foster, Brown and Beasley. At best it puts him at 4 but Williams offers the size and physicality the Bills need at the position and no other wr on the roster offers that. Zay is the #5 and has not been a special team performer. If we can get anything of value back, he needs to be traded now before he is released in September.
-
Signing Brown and Beasley to those contracts spell the end to Zays time in Buffalo. Hopefully, Beane can trade Zay for another player or at least a late round pick.
-
I think Mcbeane wanted some experienced and professional WRs in the room next year. Guys that can be counted on to lead the room and have consistent performances. Foster can learn from the veterans as will Williams and possibly McKenzie. As for Zay, I think it spells the end of the road for him in Buffalo. They did not pay Brown and Beasley that much to sit the bench and Foster showed to be a much greater wr last year. That puts Zay at best the 4th wr but the Bills brought in Williams for a reason and he will be ahead of Zay as well because he is the one wr that offers the bigger body red zone presence. As the 5th wr, Zay will not be kept unless he becomes a special teams ace so I would expect the Bills to try and make a deal involving Zay while they can.
-
3
-
-
I like that he is only 26 (soon to be 27) where as I believe Paradis is 30 and would have been declining at end of a 4-5 year deal.
-
2
-
-
I almost forgot that Jones was the wr targeted by Taylor at the end of the Carolina game. He does stumble at the top of his route and fails to make a catch that is made by wrs on a regular basis (not a routine catch but would not have been a wow catch either). He drops the 3rd and 10 pass along the sideline against Miami right before the final play (this was an even more egregious drop). So I'll add not being clutch to the list of complaints I have with Jones' play. Bills are clearly looking to upgrade the wr position and if Jones cannot excel on special teams he will most likely be the odd man out.
-
Zay Jones has been a disappointment so far and I would not count on him to be a significant member of the wr corps in 2019. If he takes a jump this year, then that's great but it would not be something that I would be counting on to happen. Personally, I find Duke Williams to be a more attractive option at this point because he was such a talented kid in college before he lost his head. Williams seems to have gotten himself back on track and I think the talent that made him the #1 JUCO prospect and have some big time performances in the SEC his first year is still there.
In 2 years, the best I can say is Jones seems to have a good understanding of the playbook. Talent wise he is not a burner and does not run away from anyone, he creates little to no separation on most routes he runs, he was dreadful catching the football in his first year and improved some in that area his second year but still not an above average catcher of the football, has shown little to no ability to make contested catches, and he has shown no real playmaking ability after the catch (shiftiness, breaking tackles or running away). He has a lot of work to do in those areas and I am not optimistic based on his skill set that he can make any significant improvement.
-
Not a big fan of the strictly blocking tight end. You need to offer some threat in the passing game or you might be better off just keeping the extra offensive lineman and using him on goaline and short yardage situations.
-
1
-
-
There appears to be more depth and options at wr than ever before so Jones will need to do something this summer to earn a spot.
Jones lacks speed, the ability to separate, limited run after catch ability, limited ability to make contested catches and his hands have been generally suspect. He has only been a regular wr for the Bills because he was drafted high and the position group was gutted when he arrived. He never earned his spot and has done nothing with the opportunity. With so many options in free agency, trade possibilities and the draft it is hard to think he will be a top 4 Wr on this team next year unless his game drastically changes.
Foster is well ahead of him and I believe they brought in the talented Duke Williams to compete for the #2 spot. McKenzie offers some trick play and special teams ability but he may be replaced as well. Jones is probably 3rd right now but I expect 2 more additions at this position and I’m not sure he is a good enough special teamed to stick with team if he is bumped down to a #5.
-
1
-
-
26 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:
Hard to take a guy top 10 especially a TE who’s not a physical freak like Gronk.
Big Hock fan but was hoping for at least 4.6s. Kittle was a 4.52 guy and Kelce was low 4.6s. Ertz was 4.76 but it would like to be a little more dynamic if top ten. I’d like to see the other quickness drills to see if he measures up in those areas.
-
I’m really for signing or trading for any number of younger WRs and that includes Funchess. As long as we don’t overpay he could be a nice addition and presence in the red zone. There are enough lower cost options out there for the Bills to upgrade the wr corps where it is at least average. But it would allow us to spend more assets on the line, tight end and rb positions.
-
1
-
-
His height is almost 6'5 and weight is good at 251. His hand size is average and arm length is a little shorter than I would like but still longer than Ertz measured in at. No red flags from the measurements so interested to see how he tests out athletically on Saturday.
-
It is an interesting question. I took a different angle regarding Duke’s potential for success and it had to do with top tier JUCO prospects.
Duke Williams was the #1 ranked JUCO prospect in 2014. I read that after he first signed but never gave it much thought. As this thread appeared, I thought I would look into the JUCO history to see if there was anything interesting to note and here is what I found:
Top 3 rated JUCO prospects by year as shown by 247 Sports:
2018: Saivion Smith CB from Alabama declared early and is a 3rd round prospect – others in class not
out yet
2017: Jarrett Stidham QB: 2019 mid round prospect
Isaiah Buggs DT: 2019 2nd round prospect
Kendall Sheffield CB: 2019 3rd round prospect
2016: Jonathan Kongbo DE: Torn ACL in 10/18 and future unknown
Charles Baldwin OT: transferred from Alabama to Kansas to Youngstown State
Garrett Bolles OT: 2017 1st round pick (20) by Broncos and has been a starter since
2015: Jovon Robinson RB: Dismissed from Auburn program in 2016
*Alvin Kamara RB: 3rd round pick Saints
Marquavius Lewis DE: UDFA spent time with Bills in 2018 before injury settlement
2014: D’Haquille “Duke” Williams WR: UDFA Packers and CFL star signed with Bills in 1/19
Dominick Jackson OT: UDFA with Redskins in 2016 but released without making roster
*Tyreek Hill WR: 5th round pick KC Chiefs
2013: Lavon Hooks DT: UDFA with Packers and currently Steelers
Risean Broussard DT: UDFA with Chiefs but released without making roster
Beau Sandland TE: Drafted in the 7th round by Carolina in 2016 and currently with Cardinals
2012: Cordarrelle Patterson WR: Drafted 1st round by Vikings and spent the past year with Patriots
Gerald Bowman S: UDFA signed by Ravens in 2015 but did not make roster
*Denico Autry DE: UDFA with Raiders in 2014 and signed 3 year 17mil contact with Colts in 2018
(had 9 sacks in 2018)
2011: Cornelius Carradine DE: 2nd round pick by 49ers 2013-2017 and 2018 with Raiders
*Sheldon Richardson DT: 1st round pick by Jets in 2013 and currently with Vikings
Jesse Williams DT: 5th Round pick by Seahawks from 2013-2015
2010: *Bruce Irvin DE: 1st round pick Seahawks in 2012 currently with Falcons
Wayne Dorsey DE: UDFA Raiders from 2012-2014
*Cam Newton QB: 1st round pick Panthers
2009: James Aviona DT: UDFA signed with Colts in 2013 but not rostered
*Jason Pierre-Paul DE: 1st round pick Giants now with Tampa Bay
Hebron Fangupo DT: UDFA 2012-2015 with Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Chiefs, Redskins
In reviewing the NFL success of the top 3 rated prospects, it is interesting that 7 of 21 prospects (33%) can be considered successes from 2009-2015. It’s a little too early to rate the 2016 prospects and beyond but as you can see the top 3 prospects have continued to be on NFL radars and there are likely more hits to come.
The 33% NFL success rate from the top rated JUCO prospects is pretty good and gives more credence to Williams being a potential #2 or maybe #1 wr for the Bills next year. It is interesting to see that prior to 2009, the top JUCO prospects seemed to have little to no NFL success. But since 2009, the top 3 prospects have been having NFL success at rate that would be similar to a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. I’m not sure what the reason for this is, maybe the people ranking the players have gotten better or maybe there are more top level talent going the JUCO route. But whatever the reason, the top ranked JUCO players seem to be NFL caliber talents.
So the Bills essentially got the equivalent of a 2-3 round draft pick in signing Williams. And if we had used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a wr in the 2019 draft the expectation would be that they become a starter for us next year. In Williams, the Bills got a talented player who is a little older and hopefully matured. Bills still need to find other wrs and tight ends to help the passing game but Williams has a realistic chance of helping in this area.
-
2
-
3 hours ago, Putin said:
Again !!!
Ross has not shown ANYTHING since day one that he’s even worth a roaster spot ,
I know we have many holes to fill , and even defense needs to be addressed , last year we had a top 5 / playoff caliber defense , there were few games where they gave up couple of big late drives that cost us the game , but overall our D was pretty darn good ,
About the running game I still believe that Shady got some fuel in the tank left and ( IMO ) Using a 5th round pick on a running back is not what going to help running game going , putting a solid OL and couple of weapons on offense is what will , I don’t care who you got running the ball if you get hit before the line of scrimmage ,
We have the money we have the picks we all know what needs to be addressed first
I understand that Ross has yet to make a big impact but he did score 7 tds last year. His talent is really not the issue, it has much more to do with his injury history. I realize trading for Ross does not guarantee much of anything but feel it is a good match and worth the risk.
I think we disagree on how much of our assets we should dedicate to the wr position. I think the combination of Foster, Williams (another talented player), Ross, McKenzie, Jones and maybe a value free agent wr can get the job done. There is potential there in the group but I realize it is just potential at this point. If it does not pan out then you make it more of a priority the following season.
In in the meantime, you are bolstering your offensive line and tight end position. Both should help Allen every bit as much as an overpaid free agent wr or top draft pick would. Plus we disagree on Shady as I think he is just about done. We need serious help at RB and a mid round pick could help because they do help other teams year after year.
With this plan, the Bills would theoretically improve their offensive line, tight end and rb positions. They would take a few gambles on the wr spot with Ross and Williams hoping one of them steps up as well as count on Foster continuing to be the number 1 threat. Wr may not be the strength but other positions would be much improved.
This data suggests waiting until 2nd and 3rd rounds on WR and TE
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I admit that there are probably more than a few flaws to taking the approach I did. It matters how many WRs and TEs were selected in each of the rounds as well and if I ran the numbers on all the other positions (or at least the offensive side of the ball) it might provide better context.
What it did show was that there are productive and highly productive WRs found in the 2nd round each year (certainly more are found in the first round but it is close enough in my opinion to wait until the 2nd). It also showed that there are productive and highly productive TEs being found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds each year (even more than the first round). So now it is up to Brandon Beane and company to identify that talent at the WR and TE positions that slip through the cracks into the 2nd and 3rd. It is pretty much a consensus that the draft this year is deep at both of the positions so it seems to make sense that productive players will be there in the 2nd and 3rd (maybe even some in the 4th because of how deep the TE position is) and the Bills could maximize value if they were to wait and identify the talent that does fall outside the 1st round.