racketmaster

February 2, 2019

54 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Considering I came up with 78.1% overall for Catchable passes on the season, I'd say your 78% is pretty damn well in line with what I saw.

And your anecdotal breakdowns of each game are great.

Good stuff!

I added weeks 16 and 17 in and that brought Allen's on target rate down a bit to 73.7%. Outside of the clear throwaways, hail mary plays and obvious drops, I pretty much consider the incompletions to be misses even though some of those are obvious miscommunication plays between the wr and qb. I put it on Allen as a miss because he is the one targeting the wr and needs to make sure they are on the same page.

In week 16 I had Allen going 26 of 39 for 66% (I have the full breakdown like the others but most are probably not interested in it). In reality Allen's stats were not good 20 of 41 for 217yds 1td and 2int. However, the yardage and touchdowns could have been much different as I saw 3 touchdown opportunities slipped through the Bills wrs hands. (1) Foster in sun was there and should have been a long td, (2) Foster at goaline miss timed his jump and let an opportunity slip away, (3) Logan Thomas let a big time throw slip threw his hands in the end zone. Catch 2 of 3 and the stats look very different as does the game.

In week 17 I had Allen being on target 17 of 24 passes at 70.8%. He had 7 misses in this game including the pick 6 which was a nice read by the defender. Still he accounted for 5tds and was pretty dynamic on the ground again.

February 2, 2019

So in 3 watching 3 of Allen's games he has been on target with 64 of 82 passes in which he was attempting to hit a target (extracted throwaways and hail mary throws). That is an on target rate of 78% (almost 4 of 5 passes are on target).

Not sure what the league average is but watching the Allen's games coming back from his injury he appears to be fairly accurate. Plus, he add a rushing dimension and the ability to make big time chunk throws.

Upgrading the te/wr/rb position in talent would certainly help the completion percentage and will add passing yardage as well as passing tds. Allen is an aggressive passer who likes to push the ball down the field. I don't think he will ever be a league leader in completion percentage but I think with better targets he can get close to 60%. That is good enough with his rushing and ability to create chunk plays in the passing game.

February 2, 2019

Detroit Week 15: Allen stat line is 13 of 26 for 204yds 1td and 0int.

Watching game shows:

Throwaways: 5

Hail Mary: 1 at end of first half he makes desperation throw down field to Jones but broken up

Drops/Broken up: I had 2 drops and 1 to Jones that was on target but broken up by a defensive back

Big time throws: 4

Misses: 3

So in reality Allen was on target with 17 of 20 passes for an 85% on target rate. Plus he had a nice rushing td in this game.

February 2, 2019

Jets week 14: Allen stat line is 18 of 36 for 201yds and 0tds and 2ints (less than impressive stat line). What does reviewing the game show:

Throwaways: 2

Drops: 7 (this includes the Zay Jones play in end zone on 3rd down at end of game as it was really close as to whether he could get his feet down but perfect throw and went threw his hands again)

Big time throws: I saw only 3

Misses: 9 including 2 interceptions

In reality Allen was on target for 25 of 34 passes for an on target rate of 73.5%. He had a number of bad and critical drops in this game but also threw 2 bad interceptions. Not included was his 9 carries for 101 yards and 1 td. Not his best game but he played well enough to win and our special teams was horrible in this game.

February 2, 2019

I think the OP has done a lot of work in reviewing the tape and makes some great points. For my own part I went back and reviewed one of Allen's games (week 13 v. Miami).

His passing stat line for the game was 18 of 33 for 231yds and 2Tds and 2ints. And for this discussion the all important completion % was 54%. Not that impressive if you just look at the raw numbers. But watching the game closely tells a different story and here is what I saw:

Throwaways to avoid sacks: 4

Hail Mary at end of half because our kicker could not attempt a 58yd field goal and this resulted in 1 of his interceptions.

Drops: 4 including a big drop by Benjamin that would have been a TD (alligator arms) and the back shoulder throw to Zay on final drive that was perfectly placed and overturned.

Big time throws: 7

Misses: 6 (and I struggled with the final play to Clay and decided to make it a drop because Clay got his hands under it and I see wrs make that play 8 times out of 10)

Rushing: 9 for 135

So of the 33 pass attempts Allen missed on 6 of them. He had a couple of bad misses early in the game but settled down as game progressed. In reality, Allen was on target for 22 of 28 passes in this game (I extracted the hail marry and 4 drops). So he was on target for 78.5% of his passes and he made 7 big time throws. He had very few check down and screen completions so he was pushing the ball down the field.

I think we can live with 6 missed throws in a game, especially if it amounts to just 1 interception. Plus, with all the rushing, avoiding sacks and big time throws Allen more than made up for the misses. I'll take a look at some more games but to the OP's point, Allen does not appear to be an inaccurate passer.

January 29, 2019

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

Other cities deal with this too. Artemi Panarin was traded to the blue jackets but doesn’t want to stay here once he becomes a FA. He wants to live in a huge market like NYC or by the ocean in FL. Team is good, wants to pay him, he doesn’t care. He’s young, rich end single and can choose where he wants to live. It is what it is. I do wonder why teams like Miami aren’t better than they are, you would think they would rake in the young FAs.

That’s a good point. But if you think about it the bigger/sexy market teams may have an easier time attracting the talent but once they get there they may have a more challenging time keeping the talent focused on the game. The greater amount of outside activities and attractions may lead to players becoming less focused on the game and dedicating a 100% to the team. Conversely, you often here Buffalo players say there is nothing to do in Buffalo but work on their game.

January 29, 2019

Its why the draft is extremely important for the Bills. Get good players in the draft and they generally end up liking the organization and the community. Then spend the money to keep your own guys. They have been here for 4-5 years and you will not have to sell them on much of anything as they know what playing in Buffalo is like rather than just going off preconceived notions.

January 29, 2019

10 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think tight ends are really difficult to project. The way tight ends are used in college is a little different these days as a lot of them really can't block. Why is it that Zach Ertz is so amazing but guys like Gavin Escobar or Troy Niklas flame out?

It really is about fit in a system and how the tight end is going to be used. And talent of course. So I think a tight end in the top ten is a very risky proposition, because it really is a boom or bust pick, like Eric Ebron. However, there is a ton of value that can be found late first round, early second.

With all of that said, TJ Hockenson is the real deal. Would I take him at 9? Not sure yet, but if we are going to make him a focal point of our offense, then I'd be all for it. I think you have to find the right fit and then make a concentrated effort to make the guy a main part of your offense, like KC and Philly have done with Kelce and Ertz.

And BTW, the history of top ten offensive lineman over the past few years is way worse than the history of tight ends on the first two days of the draft. People continue to reach on mediocre offensive linemen, passing on elite talent. Don't do it. No elite offensive lineman in this draft.

Excellent post. Hockenson is definitely the real deal. He has such a high floor because of his skill set and relentless attitude. He is one of the best blocking tight ends to come out in recent years and has been coached very well in his blocking technique. I don’t know if I would take him at 9 but if we were able to slide down a few slots and pick up and extra pick or two I’d be all in. Hockenson is a true dual threat that can help in the run game and also been a receiving threat with size, speed, hands, awareness and athleticism. He is a great blocker and everything else about him is very good. No weaknesses to his ability and brings the type of attitude this regime looks for.

With the extra picks we can we can get help on the offensive line in the second and third rounds.

January 28, 2019

It never hurts to sit down with a legend if nothing else as a sign of respect. Listening to what Kelly has to say won't hurt as the smartest people are always willing to listen to advice given to them. After listening, the smartest people are also able to extract the most valuable and applicable information and put it into their tool kit.

January 25, 2019

3 minutes ago, RPbillsfan said:

There is a lot of talk of a team like the Redskins trading up possibly with the Bills to get the QB of their choice.

I'm thinking the QB market goes like this:

Foles to Jacksonville

Bridgewater to Miami

Flacco to Miami

Tannehill to Washington

Haskins to NY Giants

Lock to Denver

With this a very possible scenario, I see the trade up being with Atlanta going up for a DT.

Here is my first picks thru the Buffalo trade down

Arizona - Nick Bosa

San Francisco - Josh Allen

NY Jets - Quentin Williams

Oakland - Clelin Ferrell

Tampa Bay - Greedy Williams

NY Giants - Dwayne Haskins

Jacksonville - Ed Oliver

Detroit - Devin White

Atlanta - Christian Wilkins

Denver - Drew Lock

Cincinnati - Kyler Murray

Green Bay - Deonte Thompson

Miami - Dexter Lawrence

Buffalo - Dalton Risner

Bills trade from 9 to 14

get Falcons 3rd and 4th

Bills get a versatile guy with great leadership and position flexibility. Will allow the hopeful addition of T Darryl Williams to play RT and maybe a Quentin Spain or Reuben Foster to play G and keeping Jeff Boline for depth.

Starting offensive line

Dawkins Teller Risner Foster Williams, depth before round 2 of the draft is Bodine and Bottenger and possible Jordan Mills as swing T.

Hopefully Bills look at WR in round 2, either Hakeem Butler, Deebo Samuels or DK Metcalf

Round 3 - Picks 74 & 79

Round 4 - Picks 105, 110, 124

Round 5 - Picks 136 147

Of course picks 4th and later are affected by added compensatory choices to be determined.

I would consider possibly trading both 3rds to move up in 2nd if Iowa TE Hockenson is available

This also assumes we resign Jordan Phillips and add a WR in FA

I like the idea of trading down and there could be some opportunities to do so. Ideally, I'd like to move to about the middle of the first round and draft Hockenson. To me he is a tremendous fit and a position of need. Hockenson is a relentless blocker and could help the run game on the edge. He is also an excellent pass catcher. Because he is so versatile and his demeanor/character seems to be top notch, I would expect him to be drafted by some team in the middle of the first. Getting a game breaker like a Kelce/Kittle can make a huge difference for an offense and a young quarterback.

January 23, 2019

1 hour ago, HeHateMe said:

Whaley wasn't just a scout, he was the GM... no reason he shouldn't of been fired once McDermott was brought in in January or even once the season ended. There was over 3 1/2 months before the draft.. everyone knew we needed a QB, he didn't have to waste a whole year to see that.

Team culture changes when you win, it wouldn't of ruined anybody who wasn't strong enough anyway. We had way more offensive talent that year anyway for a rookie QB. Way better than what we had this year especially on the line.

The pecking order has McDermott at the top anyways. This is his team.

We can’t use hindsight here when evaluating a decision like this. If we could then Mahomes would have went #1 overall and we would have never had a look at him anyway.

Mahomes was not seen seen as some generational talent so to go after him in 2017 when the organization was not ready would normally not be the best idea, especially when 2018 was supposed to be a very good year for quarterbacks.

I think you are also underestimating what McDermott had on his plate as a first time head coach coming in from a defensive coordinator position. He is trying to settle in and hire staff and fix organizational processes. Free agency is going on and the start of OTAs. We decided to bring Taylor back on a bridge deal so we were not completely devoid of a qb option. And McDermott does not trust Whaley to do the lion share of research on the quarterbacks. This is understandable and makes complete sense.

If if it were me I would have done it the exact same way as McDermott. I have a trusted friend in Beane who I want as my GM. I want to be on the same page and he is an evaluator that I trust. Why would I jump the gun on a quarterback without letting the guy I trust most get involved with this extremely important decision. This is not Mahomes in the 3rd round or later where you are taking a flyer. You would have taken him at 10 and hitching your coaching career and that of the new GM to this quarterback. It was not a good spot to take a first round qb that was not considered a no brainer. It make look like a no brainer now but it was not at the time.

January 23, 2019

And one more thing to think of is that McDermott is a defensive coach who was working with an offensive coordinator for the first time. A coordinator he hired because he was available at the time and had worked with Taylor previously. McDermott had to think that Dennison might only be a temporary solution until he found a better option. It's very likely that McDermott felt more comfortable with Daboll than Dennison. McDermott had more time to search for the type of coordinator he was looking for to lead the offensive side of the ball. If McDermott was somewhat unsure of Dennison and thought he might just be a band-aid, then why in the world would he trust Dennison with developing the prized rookie quarterback.

I understand that Mahomes has looked great and it would have been nice to have him in a Bills uniform for the next 15 years but the situation was just not right and the decision makers (mainly McDermott) do not have the luxury of knowing what we know now. I think it worked out for both teams in the end as I believe Allen will be a star in his own right and a great fit for Buffalo. It really is time to move on as I think we have a good one at he position for the first time in a long time.

January 23, 2019

1 hour ago, HeHateMe said:

Why did they even have Whaley involved as a lame duck, if his presence would prevent them from taking a Franchise QB when they were desperate for one? Makes no sense.

Because scouting staffs rarely turn over in the spring before the draft. If McDermott was set on wanting Beane to come in as the GM and could not get Carolina to let him go until after the draft, then it leaves the Bills in sort of a pickle.

Drafting a qb in the first round is one of the most important decisions an organization can make. McDermott clearly did not trust Whaley to make that decision as he was immediately let go after the draft.

- Maybe McDermott was not comfortable making the call on the qb as he was not out in the road scouting the quarterbacks all season. I like that he was able to set his ego aside and punt the major decision down the road a year when they had all their ducks in order.

- McDermott was a brand new coach and involved in free agency and coming up with OTA practice schedules. He had spent a ton of time assembling a staff and getting familiar with the organization. To think McDermott would have had enough time to do a proper evaluation of the qb class would be foolish. If he trusted Whaley and the scouts, a qb would have been selected but that was not the case.

- And let’s just say McDermott went ahead and pulled the trigger on a qb in 2017. What do you think the media would have said when Whaley was fired right after the draft. The media would have had a field day poking fun of McDermott for the way he handled the situation.

- Additionally, I believe McDermott feels strongly about team culture. He clearly did not like the culture that was present and needed time to get the environment he envisioned. I strongly believe McDermott preferred bringing his rookie qb into a situation in which the culture was good. He would want an optimal situation for the rookie to grow and mature and having a bunch of players that were going to be shipped out might not be the best situation for a young player to grow.

For all all of the above reasons and more, it just was not the right time to draft a quarterback in 2017. So McDermott did the next best thing and that was to trade down and collect more picks so that they had ammunition to go after a qb the following year when their organization was in order.

January 21, 2019

There is still fame and $ to be made by playing in the NFL. Until that goes away there will always be enough ready and willing participants.

January 21, 2019

Nobody is going to be able to legitimately argue Allen is a better quarterback than Mahomes right now but remember that this time last year the world knew very little about Patrick Mahomes. So Mahomes looks to be a star right now but who is to say that Allen can't also become an elite qb. Allen certainly has as much arm talent and athleticism at Mahomes does. They both seem to love playing the game and have a sense of joy while on the field. I don't follow Mahomes in terms of leadership and off the field drive but it seems Allen has those attributes as well. So why can't Allen become a league sensation next year? Allen got more experience than Mahomes did as a rookie and began to hit his stride late in the season. If the Bills surround Allen with some more weapons, Allen may very well also become a star. We just don't know yet as it is so early in both of their careers but maybe they both end up being great quarterbacks.

All I know is Allen seems to be a great fit for Buffalo and Mahomes has been a great fit for KC. So maybe this is where they were both meant to be and I choose not to look back. If Allen played all year like he did the first 6 games then I might be more envious of KC, but the way Allen played down the stretch has got me extremely optimistic for the future of the Bills.

January 20, 2019

Joyner seemed pretty hesitant and it probably cost them the game. Hyde or Poyer pick that ball off.

January 20, 2019

Alvin Kamara is a much better player than Lesean McCoy at this point in their careers and it is not even close. Kamara gives Brees a constant threat out of the backfield and is a huge advantage for Brees.

January 20, 2019

Someone needs a Snickers bar

January 18, 2019

This was brought up somewhere in the thread about breaking down individual games. It is an exhaustive task and I commend the OP for the extremely time consuming task of going through every pass from every rookie qb in 2018. I have watched all of Allen’s games at least once and usually 2-3 times but have only seen about 3-4 games of each of the other 4 rookies. In general, Bills fans see the “good” and the “bad” of their quarterback much more than other quarterbacks around the league. We are all mostly caught up in trying to figure out if our quarterback is going to be good or not. The evaluations on Allen have been endless but I think it is worth our time for us all to take a break from Allen and intensely scrutinize the other rookie quarterbacks. I just decided to take a closer look at Baker Mayfield first. Why, because he is generally held up as the gold standard for the 2018 rookie quarterback class. I have watch 4 of his games this year from beginning to end but took week 17 because it is easily found on youtube for anyone to watch every throw from that game (to have your own opinion). It is also the last game and should show some growth from the first game he played.

Anyway, I did a play by play analysis of each throw by Baker in this game. I tried to keep it simple and had 5 categories (Outstanding, Very Good, Good, Bad and Very Bad). They are relatively self-explanatory but here is a little more about each of them:

Outstanding: An elite throw involving tremendous accuracy and increased by the difficulty of the throw (depth of target, off platform, being pressured etc.) It is a WOW throw.

Very Good: This is an excellent play that is anything but routine (shows some combination of accuracy and difficulty).

Good: These are just general routinely accurate throws. Plays a quarterback should generally make even if it means extending a play and throwing it out of bounds to avoid a sack.

Bad: These are generally slightly inaccurate throws or passes forced to targets that are covered.

Very Bad: Inaccurate passes or forced into coverage where there was no chance of a completion. Head scratching inaccuracy or decision making usually resulting in turnovers.

That is just the way I decided to look at it and each person will have their own preferred definitions and categories. But I tried to keep it simple. So here is the play by play below and anyone of you can go back and argue the rating if you are so inclined.

BROWNS V. RAVENS WEEK 17:

o 2nd & 5 at BAL 42

(13:01 - 1st) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left intended for A.Callaway INTERCEPTED – (VERY BAD) Poor wobbly throw off back foot right in which defender easily steps in front of wr to intercept.

o 2nd & 6 at CLE 29

(8:59 - 1st) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to D.Johnson. (BAD) – Inaccurate quick thro over the head of target – made worse is that he failed to see Calloway wide open in middle of field.

o 3rd & 6 at CLE 29

(8:55 - 1st) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to A.Callaway ran ob at BLT 33 for 38 yards. (OUTSTANDING) Shows patience and keeps eyes downfield making a very accurate deep throw.

o 1st & 5 at BAL 28

(8:22 - 1st) Breshad Perriman Pass From Baker Mayfield for 28 Yds. (VERY GOOD) Great recognition and a nice pass dropping it over defenders to wr for TD.

o 3rd & 5 at CLE 30

(13:24 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to A.Callaway pushed ob at CLV 49 for 19 yards (B.Carr). (VERY GOOD) Nice pass dropping into the bucket down sideline to wr.

o 1st & 10 at CLE 49

(13:04 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short middle to D.Johnson to BLT 48 for 3 yards (B.Urban). (GOOD) Short accurate dump off pass to rb

o 2nd & 7 at BAL 48

(12:41 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to R.Higgins. (BAD) Pressure coming and makes inaccurate throw about 7 yards away from target – with high mobility he may have been able to make defender miss and extend play

o 3rd & 7 at BAL 48

(12:37 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to J.Landry. (BAD) Steps up in pocket but makes an inaccurate throw that is high and behind wr who was open.

o

o 1st & 10 at CLE 10

(6:06 - 2nd) B.Mayfield pass deep right to J.Landry ran ob at CLV 29 for 19 yards. (VERY GOOD) – Nice drop back in endzone delivering accurate ball to sideline wr.

o 2nd & 9 at CLE 30

(4:51 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to N.Chubb to CLV 28 for -2 yards (Z.Smith). (GOOD) Horizontal quick throw to RB on target but low difficulty.

o 3rd & 11 at CLE 28

(4:06 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left intended for R.Higgins INTERCEPTED (VERY BAD) Forces throw into coverage as defender steps in front of wr and tips pass for interception

o 1st & 10 at CLE 7

(1:50 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to J.Landry. (VERY GOOD) Identifies Landry in deep middle and wr did not adjust well enough. Ball could have been placed a little better but was still an accurate throw that should have been caught.

o 2nd & 10 at CLE 7

(1:50 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left. Mayfield throws pass away. (GOOD) Pressure comes and steps up throwing ball away to avoid sack.

o 3rd & 10 at CLE 7

(1:50 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to A.Callaway. (BAD) Pressure comes and throws a pass well over head of wr who was open with a better throw.

o

o 1st & 10 at CLE 6

(0:36 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to A.Callaway pushed ob at CLV 27 for 21 yards (M.Humphrey). (VERY GOOD) Nice accurate pass to wr who catches in stride.

o 1st & 10 at CLE 27

(0:29 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to D.Johnson. (GOOD) Extends play outside pocket and throws on run along sideline where only target has any chance.

o 2nd & 10 at CLE 27

(0:21 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep middle to R.Higgins to BLT 33 for 40 yards (T.Jefferson) [C.Wormley]. (GOOD) Only rated as good because extended play and took a chance late in half by throwing it up and looking for wr to make a play (if intercepted it would not have been a huge deal as there was less than 10 seconds to go in half and he could afford to take a bigger risk looking for chunk play.

o 1st & 10 at BAL 33

(0:08 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to B.Perriman. PENALTY on BLT-M.Humphrey, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 33 - No Play and not recorded.

o SECOND HALF

o 1st & 10 at BAL 48

(12:27 - 3rd) Jarvis Landry Pass From Baker Mayfield for 48 Yds (VERY GOOD) trick bobble pass play throwing mostly accurate pass to Landry who this time adjusts to pass for TD

2nd & 14 at CLE 31

(6:17 - 3rd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to D.Fells to CLV 34 for 3 yards (T.Jefferson). (GOOD) Short pass to outside on target

o 3rd & 11 at CLE 34

(5:36 - 3rd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to A.Callaway. (BAD) Intended pass is well out of bounds and wr has no chance to make a play

o

o 1st & 10 at CLE 23

(2:53 - 3rd) B.Mayfield pass deep right to D.Njoku to BLT 35 for 42 yards (M.Humphrey). (VERY GOOD) Identifies 1 on 1 matchup downfield and gives TE a good ball to make a play on. TE makes great catch.

o 1st & 10 at BAL 35

(2:06 - 3rd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to B.Perriman to BLT 37 for -2 yards (C.Mosley). (GOOD) Short horizontal pass on target.

o 3rd & 8 at BAL 33

(0:44 - 3rd) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to R.Higgins pushed ob at BLT 22 for 11 yards (M.Humphrey). (VERY GOOD) Slides in pocket and makes accurate throw allowing wr to run for first down.

o 1st & 10 at BAL 22

(0:08 - 3rd) B.Mayfield pass short right to N.Chubb to BLT 24 for -2 yards (M.Pierce). (GOOD) Double screen design and throws accurate screen to RB

o 2nd & 12 at BAL 24

(15:00 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield sacked at BLT 34 for -10 yards (C.Mosley). PENALTY on BLT-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 24 - No Play and not recorded

o 1st & 10 at BAL 19

(14:38 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to N.Chubb. (GOOD) Extends play out of pocket and makes an inaccurate pass to RB but avoided sack and negative play

o 2nd & 10 at BAL 19

(14:33 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to R.Higgins to BLT 17 for 2 yards (T.Jefferson). (GOOD) Short accurate wr screen pass

o 3rd & 8 at BAL 17

(13:52 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to D.Njoku. (BAD) Pressure comes but TE is wide open and an accurate pass results in TD

o

o 1st & 10 at CLE 25

(7:20 - 4th) B.Mayfield pass short right to D.Njoku to CLV 38 for 13 yards (T.Suggs). (GOOD) Takes check down and accurate throw to TE who makes a play

o 2nd & 15 at CLE 33

(5:57 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short middle to D.Njoku to CLV 40 for 7 yards (C.Wormley). (GOOD) Short accurate pass to TE

o 3rd & 8 at CLE 40

(5:00 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to J.Landry ran ob at BLT 46 for 14 yards (T.Young). (VERY GOOD) Pressure down and accurate sideline pass

o 1st & 10 at BAL 46

(5:00 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to R.Higgins to BLT 13 for 33 yards (T.Jefferson). (GOOD) Wr screen pass that is low but catchable and set up well for big gain.

o 2nd & 3 at BAL 6

(4:14 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to J.Landry to BLT 1 for 5 yards (T.Jefferson). (GOOD) Short accurate pass

o 1st & Goal at BAL 1

(3:32 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to D.Njoku (M.Humphrey).

- (VERY GOOD) Excellent jump ball pass and nearly a TD

o 2nd & Goal at BAL 1

(3:24 - 4th) Antonio Callaway Pass From Baker Mayfield for 1 Yard (GOOD) Nice accurate pick play pass for TD

o 1st & 10 at CLE 26

(1:49 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to B.Perriman. (BAD) Thrown behind target

o 2nd & 10 at CLE 26

(1:46 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to B.Perriman to CLV 45 for 19 yards (B.Carr). (OUTSTANDING) Extends play outside and makes very accurate throw along sideline where only wr can make a play at a key point in game.

1st & 10 at CLE 45

(1:40 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to J.Landry. (BAD) Throws over head of WR who has no chance to make play

o 2nd & 10 at CLE 45

(1:35 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass complete deep middle to J.Landry 16 yds (T.Young). (VERY GOOD) Accurate throw on move outside pocket and even better catch.

o 1st & 10 at BAL 39

(1:18 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to D.Njoku (A.Levine Sr.). (GOOD) Gave accurate enough jump pass at sideline but was covered nicely

o 2nd & 10 at BAL 39

(1:14 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to J.Landry (J.Smith). (VERY BAD) Had Landry open but threw well behind him for what should have been an easy catch and out of bounds play.

o 3rd & 10 at BAL 39

(1:10 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to D.Njoku (A.Levine Sr.). (GOOD) Accurate pass into tight coverage.

o 4th & 10 at BAL 39

(1:06 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by C.Mosley (BAD) Some bad luck here as defender got stuffed at rush and ended up being pushed back into the throwing lane

TOTALS:

OUTSTANDING PLAYS: 2

VERY GOOD PLAYs: 11

GOOD PLAYS: 17

BAD PLAYS: 9

VERY BAD PLAYS: 3

My summary, Mayfield played a solid game against a very good defense. He made a few outstanding plays and found a good groove in the 3^rd quarter deep into the 4^th. He also started the game with a poor throw and had a number of inaccurate passes throughout the game. He did not see wide open wrs at times and missed some easy throws. He is not a dynamic scrambler but can slide around and extend plays. He throws well off platform and on the move. He did not end the final drive particularly well and missed an easy first down throw to Landry on the sideline setting up the eventual interception.

This is just one game so I don’t want to make too much of it. But all it really proves is that if we analyze any of the rookie quarterback (or really any quarterback) enough, we will see warts. Baker is viewed as a rising star yet he made a number of poor throws and decisions. It happens to the best of them and the defenses get paid too. Getting back to Allen, I think is makes him look even better. Each week there seems to be 4-5 plays that he is off target or makes a poor decision. Well guess what, Baker is doing that too. And I’d venture a guess that if I did a serious rating of a Darnold, Rosen or Jackson game that they would have a slew of bad plays as well. So if Baker is the gold standard for accuracy, I just did not see his accuracy as head and shoulders above what Allen has displayed the last 6 games.

January 18, 2019

22 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Moving down to 15. Might be worth doing if the guy Beane wants is projected to be there.

Move down to 15 and draft Hockenson

January 16, 2019

Draft Hockenson

January 15, 2019

11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I just don’t think that fair to Allen. That is complete projection on just potential but he’s never really had dominant performances consistently. Newton has set records, won championships, MVPs/ Heisman, and went to a SB. I really don’t see how Allen tops that. That’s really, really good.

and I’d argue that Newton’s highs have been better than Rivers.

I mean he still won’t be the guy I would have picked. So I can’t just pretend like I love him. But he has the right attitude and all the skills. I just get sick of hoping all the potential comes together. I also think we could have a better and successful OC for him but we will see.

We took Allen at 7 overall because we thought he could be a high end franchise qb. Yes, expectations are high and that is part of the gig. I believe in Allen’s skill set (from athletic ability to mental makeup) as well as this regime to bring him along so my expectations are very high for Allen. There have been lots of great college qbs that have done nothing in the NFL so be careful taking college stats and expecting it to be a seemless transition to the NFL.

January 15, 2019

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

They were like 6-2 before the bottom fell out. I think Cam’s shoulder killed their down field passing attack.

The Bills have had a few hot starts as well before teams find their groove and the pretenders fall back to the pack. Again, Cam has been a pretty good qb and at times dominant. I just don’t see things getting better for him as time moves on. Some qbs get better with age and Cam appears to have just leveled off quickly and been negatively impacted by injury (mostly as a result of his physical play as he frequently takes on defenders and the collisions take a toll). If your pressing me on Allen having a career like Cam, here’s what I’d say: if Allen has the same career it would be a good pick and the Bills would have been relevant for a decade. But I am hoping for more from Allen. I hope that he can reach the Rivers Roethlisberger level where we have a very good qb for 15 years. And I want Allen to be a better leader on the team and be an example of that on the field of play.

January 15, 2019

And to add to this 3rd and long obvious passing situation, most quarterbacks don’t have Allen’s ability to stand tall in the pocket and deliver a high velocity throw into a tight window beyond the sticks. Many other quarterbacks also don’t have Allen’s ability to extend a passing play and run or pass for the first down on 3rd and long. For the first time in a long time, I actually have some confidence that the Bills will pick up the first down on 3rd and long situations. In past years we would just hope for not turning it over and punting for better field position.

January 15, 2019

Completion % tells only part of the story in relation to accuracy. There is so much more that goes into the %. How good are the offensive line for protection, how much separation do WRs get, what is the wr/te catching ability and catch radius, what game plan is the offensive coordinator designing. All of the above impacts the qb completion %. If the Bills wanted to get Allen to 70% next year they could by getting better WRs, TEs and pass catching backs and then designing an offense that calls for tons of screens, check downs and quick throws. But completion % does not win games and the Bills would not be taking advantage of any of Allen’s strengths in extending plays and throwing deeper routes.

Here’s another example that I see all the time watching games around the league. It’s something like 3rd and 12 (which happens too much with our lack of running game and penalties) and your qb is obviously throwing. To Allen’s credit he stuck a lot of these 3rd and long throws passed the sticks. Where continually around the league most other quarterbacks take an easy check down of 5 yards and hope the recipient runs for the first down which regularly does not happen. The qb is very content taking the minimal risk and punting. That counts as an easy completion but often does the team no good because they punt. Where Allen attempts to stick a lower percentage throw in order to get the first down. It may adversely impact his completion percentage but if he hits 50% of those on third and longs he is probably doing better than the check down and hope the runner breaks a few tackles play.

Gallery

Profiles

Forums

Events

Posts posted by racketmaster