[The Significance of the Allen Misfire/Clay Drop in Week 13]

However you want to characterize it and however you want to assign blame... I just realized how significance of that play.  And not in the way you thought of it before.  Sure, to cap off that thrilling win would've been very exciting.  Still, just like Robert Royal's inability to inexplicably get a second foot inbounds at home against the Titans in week 16 in 2006 meant Buffalo was drafting 12th (Marshawn Lynch) at 7-9 instead of drafting 20th at 8-8 (based on strength of schedule)... the last play of our week 13 Dolphins' games means TWO things:  1) we're drafting 9th instead of 16th (yes, seven spots that play accounted for) and 2) our third-place finish means we get the Titans & Broncos instead of the Colts & Chargers.  Had we beaten & swept Miami, we'd have finished in second-place at 7-9 while they'd have been in third at 6-10.

 

Sometimes it's all how you look at things.  In turns out, that wasn't the worst outcome in the world.

[Super Bowl LIII prediction]

(6) Colts over (3) Texans

(5) Chargers over (4) Ravens

 

(1) Chiefs over (6) Colts

(2) Patriots over (5) Chargers

 

(1) Chiefs over Patriots

 

(3) Bears over (6) Eagles

(4) Cowboys over (5) Seahawks

 

(3) Bears over (2) Rams

(1) Saints over (4) Cowboys

 

(1) Saints over (3) Bears 

 

Saints 34, Chiefs 31; MVP Drew Brees

[Clay told he will be released this offseason?]

I think it means to say he’s effectively being told he’s being released this offseason by today’s healthy scratch.

[Bills fall from 6th to 10th in Draft Order]

It is unfortunate that there are 5 total 5-9 teams and we draft last out of ALL of them due to us owning the highest SOS. I hope this isn’t shades of the 2004 Draft where our 6-10 record in 2003 only netted us the 13th pick (due- again- to a very high SOS). Not that we need a QB- we don’t- but that high SOS is a critical reason we missed out on Big Ben at 10 and reached for Losman in a trade-up to 22.

[RUMOR: Benjamin Allbright Cites Conjecture that Brian Daboll Could Replace Marrone in Jacksonville]

This is pure, unbridled speculation, possibly completely unfounded.  But I came across this morning and thought it was mildly of note, especially since Allbright has a reasonable track record of getting things right.  As for as the Bills are concerned, he was absolutely right about us having essentially zeroed in on Allen last year, but league-wide he's a decent twitter follow for his sources:

 

 

[PFF's view so far]

Phillips’ PFF grade is low but a lot of, if not most of, that is a result of his time in Miami- his grade was in the mid-40’s before he got here.

[If the season ended today the Bills would be picking 6th in the up coming draft]

6 hours ago, MJS said:

It won't end that way. The Bills will probably win a couple more. I bet we pick somewhere around pick 10 or 11.

If we three or four more, sure, I could see us drafting around 10th or 11th.  But "a couple" typically means two and if we're only winning two more games then chances are we'll remain about where we drafting right now.  A 2-4 finish isn't going to appreciably dent our draft position, not when its winning percentage (2-4 = .333) is nearly what our winning percentage already is at 3-7 (.300).

[Let's Play Out the Worst-Case Scenario for 2018 & 2019; It Isn't Disastrous]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

A lot of the OP's take is grounded in a set of assumptions that don't seem realistic IMO.

 

Here is how I see it genuinely panning out:  Allen will bust ultimately, but we will NOT take another QB next year, whether Herbert comes out or not.

 

When the team does not progress next season, and McBeane show a continued lack of understanding on the offensive side of the ball, I think they'll be gone at season's end, along with us officially back to looking for a new QB with a new regime.

 

In 2020 the regime will come in and start mucking with talent as McBeane have done, making the team their own.  That will hurt us in 2020, when, at best, we'll have a rookie QB (if we do at all).  

 

We're looking at 2021 as probably the first year where we have shot at being decent.  

 

If Allen turns into a good QB, everything I just wrote is moot.

 

I just don't see that happening, however.

 

 

 

I never said we were taking a QB next draft- I stated that if Allen is a clear-cut bust that we’d take another QB with our (very likely high- if Allen’s bad enough to be declared a bust that soon) 2020 1st, which by inference of what you just wrote is what you think would/will happen too. Allen will get through next year but in the new CBA gone are massive top-10 rookie contracts that meant QB’s get 3-4 years and 40-50 starts, no matter what, because it’s so much $$$ spent for organizations to come to the clear conclusion they’re simply sunk costs.

[Let's Play Out the Worst-Case Scenario for 2018 & 2019; It Isn't Disastrous]

12 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Unfortunately, I don't think this is even close to the worst place scenario.

Worst case would be McDermott doubling down on a failed QB feeling the pressure to win and pulling a Sammy Watkins-esque deal where they trade 2020's 1st round pick to move back up in the draft & grab a high profile player.

Then that doesn't pan out, the next regime takes over without a 1st round pick, and also starts the typical "throw out all the old regime's personnel and replace them with mine" shtick.

 

Then any talent we invested heavily in gets gutted, opening more holes & leads to us spinning our wheels spending picks & money replacing holes we made ourselves. And with all that cap space you mentioned, they could feel compelled to overpay for players just to get them here, leaving us with massive contracts that'll put us in cap hell for years.

On top of that, it won't be long for some of that other talent to hit FA, and the Bills will look like the NFL's farm league once again watching guys we drafted & developed leave for greener pastures once their deals are up. With poor management, coaching and lack of talent, we could go in circles for years to come leading to another decade or 2 of futility.

Now THAT is the worst case scenario

 

 

We should just alternate between WR's & O-linemen. The more O-linemen the merrier. Whether it's for depth or competition, let's get as many bodies in there and allow the cream to rise to the top.

 

And hopefully we don't just scout the undrafted FA WR's for camp bodies as usual. 

A more apt description for my 'worse-case scenario" is realistic worse-case scenario- and it still isn't any good:  Allen busts, McBeane still can't recognize offensive talent, and the Bills' offensive ineptitude perpetuates laughingstock status, which we clearly presently own, into another full season.

 

But I suppose it isn't the WORST-case scenario, as you outlined.  But yours seems more implausible.

 

Who would the Bills be trading our 2020 1st for in this draft?  Which offensive talent would be so tantalizing to rationalize it?  The Bills will already own a very high 2019 1st- they don't need to trade for one, like in middling years' past. And Buffalo will already struggle to justify taking an offensive player in the top-5 as it is- the only current justification is how wretched our offense is, not because there won't be a defensive player whose true value warrants the pick more than, say, Jonah Williams.

 

The Bills may reach for offense with their own high 1st but it's unlikely they'd look to acquire another 1st to do the same, if Pegula would even let them.  And yes, their seats are warmer now than last draft. But McBeane was so resistant to parting with future picks.  You consider that, too, and I don't think it's very likely Buffalo is trading its 2020 1st in April's draft.

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

So even in Op's worst case scenario which includes "McBeanse still can't figure out offensive personel" AND they "swing and miss on FAs", it's really not hopeless because....

 

-the Bills have a lot of draft picks (for offense)

 

-there's lots of money for FAs

 

That's like saying "worst case scenario is that McBeane are terrible at piloting a plane and playing piano...but the good news is that we have lots of planes and pianos next year".

 

 

 

I'm not sure you read what I wrote because made clear is that if the 2019 offseason is a dud then McBeane won't be making the decisions any further.  Yes, it would be unfortunate if the Bills blow through $50 million dollars worth of cap space and the next regime wants to rid itself of the additions.  Still, shockingly enough it wouldn't be crippling- a league-high $131.6 million in 2020 cap space underscores how the Bills have such little cap room currently committed. 

 

And God knows Buffalo hasn't drafted well this whole millennium but an emphasis on this decade.  That's awful but at least it means that internally we won't be spending much on our own guys; they won't consume much- or ANY- cap room, at least not until 2020/2021 when we try to extend some 2017 draft picks (White, Dawkins, Milano, and maybe Jones).

[Let's Play Out the Worst-Case Scenario for 2018 & 2019; It Isn't Disastrous]

With the Bills' offense actively trying to turn back the clock to an era it STILL would've been demonstrably awful in, it is admittedly difficult to own much optimism for the future, especially the immediate future.  However, if there's any imaginable way (and maybe there's not) that we can field a semi-competent offense next year (i.e. something BEFORE this year) the projected 2019 schedule doesn't seem too daunting, right now, since it involves many QB's with uncertain QB situations.  Not as uncertain as ours but still:

 

 Home:

 

New England

New York Jets (How much offseason help with Jets equip Darnold with?)

Miami (Tannehill finally gone?  Gase too?)

Baltimore (Flacco's likely out; Jackson's likely in)

Cincinnati (Dalton's up and down... but he's almost always 'up' for us)

Philadelphia

Washington (Smith has been a poor man's version of his KC self)

Oakland (Carr traded?  They're also a mess, anyway)

 

Road:

 

New England

New York Jets

Miami

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

Dallas (Dak is only top 20-25)

New York Giants (likely a rookie QB)

Jacksonville (Bortles' cap hit makes him still likely in place as starter)

 

[Brandon Beane Won't Rule Out Allen Missing the Rest of the Season; Not Actively Shopping Any Players Ahead of the Trade Deadline]

Just now, Chicken Boo said:

 

I haven't been following.  Didn't know he went to Andrews.

I don't believe he physically went to see Dr. Andrews but his MRI results were sent to him for a second opinion/examination after one of Dr. Andrews' former students- a member of the Bills' medical staff- recommended rest for Allen's UCL sprain.  Dr. Andrews saw the results and corroborated that opinion.

[Who Would You Want To Play On MNF in 2019?]

Of course it's a moot question because a 3/4 win team won't be "rewarded" with a Monday night football game.  MNF games can't be flexed so inevitably you get some really bad games and matchups.  But that is never the intent- just they way it works out in an unpredictable sport.  Still, the expectation is that the Bills will still be bad because of an egregiously anemic offense.

[Trade Deadline Updates - Official Thread]

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As trade deadline nears, one league source says it’s “highly unlikely” we see LeSean McCoy on the move today. Several teams reached out to Bills, but Buffalo wasn’t the ones making the calls. Teams are sensing Bills holding firm on keeping him... so far.

[Trade Deadline Updates - Official Thread]

With the Eagles trading a 3rd for Tate that assuredly takes them out of McCoy's market- they have neither the cap space nor are likely to be inclined to also trade a 4th after just trading a 3rd.

 

We seem to have missed our window.

[Call your shot. Who goes today?]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Hey. I'm just an armchair GM but I'll give you my plan.

 

CURRENT

1. Trade McCoy. His style doesn't fit our offense. He takes too many negative plays and this offense is incapable of overcoming negative plays. Let Ivory and Murphy plow into the line for 3-4 yards a carry and reduce the lost yardage.

 

2. Cut Benjamin. The guy is useless. Give a younger guy a chance. 

 

OFFSEASON

1. Sign Teddy Bridgewater to a 2 year, $20 mil contract. Let him and Allen compete with a new rookie picked in the 3rd or 4th round. If he beats out Allen, so be it. This team will mutiny if the offense isn't drastically better next year. 

 

2. Cut Charles Clay. Another terrible Whaley signing.

 

3. Sign Donte Moncrief and Geronimo Allison to bolster the WR corps. 

 

4.  Trade down!!! Stockpile draft picks. Move down out of the top 5 to pick up either an extra 1st rounder or a couple extra 2nd rounders. We need to stockpile picks and fill out the roster with NFL calibre talent. No more trading away picks to move up for players. 

 

Allison will be a RFA, for the record, and likely tendered at a 2nd-round level (though he was undrafted). But with the Packers drafting 3 WR’s, two of whom have shown real promise, I suppose it’s conceivable they tender him at his undrafted level and he’s obtainable.

[How badly does this offense rank all-time through 8 games?]

Considering the unprecedented offensive production we’re seeing, our impotent results are staggering and embarrassing. But we still won’t likely be the least productive offense of all time since the 1992 Seattle Seahawks, who went 2-14, only scored 140 points, the fewest in a 16-game season.

[Let's Play Out the Worst-Case Scenario for 2018 & 2019; It Isn't Disastrous]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I think you're misunderstanding the understanding the Pegulas have of how long rebuilds take.

 

For McDermott to go after next year something along the lines of a complete team meltdown would have to occur. I don't see any way Beane goes. After four years, now, a team that is still looking anywhere near this bad would put the coach in immediate danger and the GM on a very warm seat.

 

Agreed that we have a pretty decent chance to be alright whatever happens.

There are many that believe that McBeane's seat ALREADY is warm and that they should be fighting for their jobs now, rather than at least waiting to see what they're able to do when we don't have an unprecedented $55 million dollars in dead cap (even if self-created) and when we have more resources to make a concerted effort to build up our offense (our 2018 cap space was limited and we spent five of our six 1st-3rd round picks this past draft on drafting Allen & Edmunds, the "QB's" of the offense AND defense).

 

I don't agree with that.  I'm fairly confident McDermott & Beane will get this offseason to try to shore up serious holes, particularly offensively.

 

But if next season we're not only not winning but also struggling in staggering fashion offensively, which is the case right now with a modern-day defying 80 points in 7 games, and if we continue to commit errors that not only reflect badly on the Bills' front-office and public perception but are also plainly deeply, deeply embarrassing (Peterman's Chargers & Ravens' flops, being "forced into" starting Allen before he's ready because of said Peterman flop, signing a FA QB off the streets and then having to start him a week later, etc.)... McBeane will be and should be gone after year #3.

 

I also never thought Pegula would fire Rex less than two years into a FIVE-year contract but that happened.  

 

I hope McBeane gets us on the right path but expect this offseason to be pivotal in deciding their fate.

[Let's Play Out the Worst-Case Scenario for 2018 & 2019; It Isn't Disastrous]

I'm not saying things are looking up as Bills fans right now- I can't pretend I have the most bullish outlook either.  But I was thinking a little more deeply about our situation this week and realized that even if worst-case outcomes emerge the next 1.5 seasons (Allen can't stay healthy or doesn't show improve, McBeane still can't figure out offensive personnel, 2019 FA is a swing and miss, etc.)... there's some reason to take heart and be "hopeful" (dangerous, self-injurious concept as a Bills fan, admittedly):

 

1) Rightly or wrongly, Buffalo won't be taking a QB high in this April's draft.  For a team that could- or should- replace half its starting roster, that means (at this rate) adding a top 5 1st-rounder, top 35-38 2nd-rounder, and a top-70 3rd-rounder, plus potentially seven other selections, on non-QB positions (maybe a mid-rounder is spent on developing a backup).  Our total draft capital might not make the most appreciable impact as 10 total picks suggest since seven are day 3 picks.  But armed with an early 1st, 2nd, & 3rd... that COULD make a big difference.

 

And if Allen fails will also probably equip his successor with more surrounding talent than the talent-bereft situation Allen finds himself surrounded by now.  What might contribute to Allen's downfall, if it happens, could aid the chances of success with who follows, since our draft capital WON'T be spent on a QB.

 

2) A lot of the talk lately related to the $85 million we'll ultimately have to spend in FA this year has been about downplaying- or pooh-poohing it- saying, "Who wants to come to offensively inept Buffalo, anyway!?!?" or because the projected class looks more diluted than most years.

 

But the bottom line is that the Bills, even if they go on a legitimate spending spree, can't hope to spend more than half that total this offseason, anyway.  What isn't spent can and will be rolled over into 2020.  And while we're "only" third in projected cap space this March (behind the Jets and Colts)... the Bills presently have the most- and a whopping- $131.6 million dollars in cap space in 2020.  Even the most pessimistic poster can't deny that could have a positive effect.

 

3) I haven't given up on Allen & have been encouraged by a couple of aspects of play... while also engendering pessimism because of other aspects.  But whether he DOES or DOESN'T pan out... we won't be waiting 3-4 years to find out.  McBeane's fate is tied to Allen's and if next year we're still at a point where we score 80 points in 7 games while some other teams are scoring 80 in 7 quarters... they're gone.

 

And that ties in nicely with the 2020 Draft.  Justin Herbert, who if he enters the 2019 Draft would safely be the presumptive top QB, purportedly will return to Oregon next year.  So 18 months from now he'll hit a draft that also should include Dwayne Haskins & Tua Tagovailoa, among likely 1-2 others of note.

 

4) As an addendum to #3, just like we may let go of McBeane after next year... we're not perpetually tied to Allen either, despite taking him 7th overall just six months ago.  In the new CBA (signed 7 years ago)... QB's are MUCH easier to move on from than before- the financial commitment/entanglement is just no longer there.  We didn't sign Allen to a 6-year, $78 million dollar deal with $50 million guaranteed like Sam Bradford did in 2010 (or Matthew Stafford the year before... or Alex Smith four years before, who lasted 8 years in San Francisco despite mostly poor play until year #7).  Remember in 2014 the outcry by many when Doug Marrone benched E.J. Manuel after week #4 of just his sophomore season?  "You don't- you CAN'T- bench a QB after just 15-20 starts!?  He needs at least 30."  Well, we did, and he was effectively done here, even if still technically rostered.

 

Additionally, two years ago the Broncos traded up in the 1st-round to draft Paxton Lynch.  Well, a mere four starts later- those four starts were evidently enough- and he's not only not starting; he isn't even on Denver's roster (or anyone's).

 

I'm not saying I expect this trajectory for Allen- I'm just saying that it's easier to move on from highly-drafted QB's than before if it doesn't appear it's going to work out, for whatever reason.  This could tie into 'shooting our shot' again in 2020.  And this operates with the premise that he WON'T work out.  If he does... we still have impressive 2019 draft capital AND multi offseasons of more cap space than we could spend to fill out and build up our roster.

 

I think- no matter what happens- we have a chance to be all right...

 

[We finally have a great chance at the #1 overall pick]

10 minutes ago, LFC24 said:

 

why do so many ppl think this defensive performance can last the rest of the season?

 

Every top offensive team we have faced they blew us out. We have played 2 mediocre offenses in a row 

This defense has demonstrated it's well beyond it's first 6 quarters of the season.  Even non-Bills' fans are buying into that, but I guess you're not.

 

I'll throw out Tennessee- they're devolving into a mess, offensively.  But holding the Vikings to 7 points on the road is a very laudable effort- they're scored 133 points in their over 5 games (26.6).  Holding the Packers to 22- with absolutely no offensive help and in fact the offense having a detrimental effect on its own defense- is notable as well.  Finally, holding Houston's offense to 13 points on the road (that's excluding Joseph's pick-six but not discounting the special teams miscues which produced Texans' points) is a strong effort, too.

 

It's not like we generally face too many dynamic, potent, and unstoppable offenses the last 10 games, not with the Jets, Dolphins, and Jaguars making up 5 games alone.

 

I don't think we're suddenly good, overall, just not 1st overall or even top-3 bad.  More like 5/6 win and top 8-10 win bad.

[We finally have a great chance at the #1 overall pick]

3 minutes ago, LFC24 said:

 

I personally see us going 4-12. Pats will sweep us and I think we steal a win vs the Jets/Dolphins. There is no way in hell this team wins over 5 games. 

 

4-12 will get us into the top 5. 

You say that with no equivocation but- honestly- did you see us even having two wins at this point?  I actually thought 0-8 at the midway point was eminently on the table.

 

Again, I have no problem if you're right- it'll serve us better ultimately, most likely.  But given our schedule and the road/home disproportion, plus how well our defense is playing, I just can't be as confident in you that "no way in hell this team wins over 5 (total) games" the rest of the season.

[We finally have a great chance at the #1 overall pick]

I actually would have little problem if we ended up with the top pick, especially since (rightly or wrongly- time will be the deciding factor) we would probably trade it to a QB-needy team like the Giants or Broncos, both of whom will end up will 10+ losses (even Denver despite last night).  But I don't know how anyone can see how the last 4 games have played out and think that we'll end up with the top pick.

 

Despite having quite arguably the toughest schedule in the league to start with 4 of our first 6 games (actually, 5 out of our first 7) on the road, including to Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore, and Houston, and despite a scarcely existent offense we've still managed two wins... and came a collapse away on Sunday from being at .500.

 

With the schedule seemingly easing up- Patriots' games aside- in the second-half, with a top-5 defense that will keep us in MOST games... how can anyone still expect us to go 3-13 and get the first overall selection in the 2019 Draft?

 

This has more the makings of a 5-7 win team, even if it's probably better long-term that we're drafting higher than that.

[Allen will never develop under Mcdermott]

We may come to find out that McDermott is the Tyrod Taylor of coaches: he can capably take you to a point but to get beyond that point somebody else might need to do the job, at least in an offense-driven sport that isn’t turning back the clock ever again. McDermott has demonstrated that he’s quite far from being a bad coach and much closer to being a good one- I’d even call him a “good one.” But much as Tyrod’s limitations became glaring and devastating so are becoming McDermott’s relative to the offensive side of the ball.

 

We’ll have to see what the Bills do this offseason first. But McDermott has a lot to prove in terms of offensive player- and perhaps coaching- evaluation.

[Pregame thread: Wk 6 Bills at Texans, 1 pm on CBS]

FTR, CBS Sportsline makes their picks against the spread, so I don’t even think La Canfora is picking us either.

[Prediction: Bills Will Use Cap Space as Trade Piece in 2019]

At least through the duration of the current 10-year CBA signed in 2011 (so through the 2020 season)- and likely beyond- cap space can be rolled over. So the Bills aren’t compelled to massively spend if the talent doesn’t warrant it. Already it isn’t a highly desirable class and inevitably it’ll weaken once franchise tags are applied.

 

We will still add a couple/few bonafide starters but will have to hope to make most of our impact in the draft. And 2 wins in our last 3 games notwithstanding I still expect we’ll have a top-10 1st and near top-40 2nd.

[Bills reportedly unlikely to trade McCoy and plan to keep him through 2019]

32 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If (and it is a big if) the Bills were to make this move (say a 2nd and 3rd for Shady and a 5th) they should turn around and deal one of those picks. Send the 3rd to Denver for Demaryius Thomas. Then send Benjamin out and hopefully get that 5th back for him.

Thomas will likely be released at the end of the season, anyway.  Ostensibly his stats are fine but his issues with drops have continued into this year.  And Denver deeply contemplated releasing him last year.  Ultimately he'll be on the market this spring because Denver won't have him account for $17.53 million against the cap, not when Cameron Sutton can capably take his spot.