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Posts posted by xxxxxxxx
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3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
You mean Bills fans, right? Which team do you root for?
The Bills, your allowed to like a team without fawning over all of the players. Right? Enough people blasted Tyrod on here, and they weren't questioned if they liked the team or not.
But say that you have an issue with Allens completion percentage and your suddenly a traitor.
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27 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:
You quoted my post by stating from a "research perspective" and then proceded to state the wrong stats by stating Allen had a sub 50% completion percentage which was almost comical until I read further.
Then you proceeded to lecture me that I "can't" cherry pick from the greats as all I was attempting to show that even some players with the very worst completion percentage can improve once in the professional ranks where they can get the proper instruction to fully develop their craft. From the 40% range up to 62% once in the pros.
If you actually did some research into this specific player you would have realized that the norms of completion percentage criteria really don't apply for various reasons. Bills fans need to look at the circumstances surrounding this rookie like Beane and McD have done.
If you had read the link that I posted stating why the Bills FO knew Allen was "right for them". I would then tend to think that you wouldn't continue with the nonsensical idea that every rookie QB must have a 60 percent completion percentage entering the NFL or they will fail.
https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/step-step-how-bills-knew-allen-was-right-them
In case you are too lazy to click the link and read the article.
"But Beane, McDermott, and Daboll feeling good about Allen didn’t change his completion percentage. It didn’t cause his harshest critics to suddenly like him. 56.2-percent overall over two years as a starter. 56.3 his junior year before declaring for the draft. It also didn’t suddenly change the competition he faced to be able to explain it away a lot easier.
How did the Bills brass view those concerns and still decide Allen was Their Man? In this day and age of instant video and in-depth stats right at your fingertips, they went back to the basics. Tracking every throw with their own pencil-to-paper looking at exactly what’s going on with and around him.
“Because what we did was, first of all, look at every throw multiple times,” Beane said. “What were his options here?
He had no gimme throws. There’s no, basically like hand-offs, the bubbles, and all that stuff. It was all a traditional pro-style, throwing the ball vertically, and you basically have to do your own stats. How many times did he bail out of there and throw it away, which is an incompletion? How many times did he have to do that vs. this guy and vs. that guy? And you also looked at what’s going on when he’s missing when he should have made the play, what’s going on? And to us, it was pretty clear it’s when his feet were not right. The most positive thing I saw, when he was at the Senior Bowl, his feet were in a much better position that week, he was much more accurate, not only during the week, but even in the game."
This is what I meant when I stated that there were specific circumstances as to why Allen didn't have a better completion percentage in his two seasons at Wyoming and why some feel that those percentage numbers aren't really indicative of what Allen will do in the NFL.
I was not quoting your post. Another poster who didn't take offense to what I was saying was quoting Farve and Kelly's stats. Maybe he was quoting your post, I don't know. Then the Allen echo chamber started running, and I'm sorry, but those dudes don't seem to be as well informed about statistics as other members on this board and if you point that out they flip and accuse you of saying things you never said and being pretentious.
Its just anti-intellectuals blowing a gasket when you point out the fact that a QB completion percentage from the 90's might not apply anymore.
I have already told you twice that I was not referring to your post and you keep ignoring that for some reason, and feigning outrage over my interest on stats.
I wasn't talking down to you, initially, I was describing my interest in stats. And your clearly not interested in stats because you and all the other fan boys conveniantly ignored all the stats I pulled.
Feel free to argue with yourself, sir. I did not start an argument with you to begin with but you still think I did and are repeatedly ignoring evidence to the contrary because you want to keep arguing.
Oh and when I said that he had a sub 50 completion percentage I was referring to the preseason game, not his college career. The poster I was talking to got that. You misinterpreted it and tried to use it as evidence of me being dumb and proceeded to ignore all the stats I pulled.
When you start an argument like that it is in bad faith, and people will get frusterated.
You have already stated that you don't think stats matter, so I'm not interested in duscussing them with you.
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Then block me. If the Allen fans can't handle sober stat talk without loosing it, I'm really not interested in talking to them anyway.
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1 hour ago, Bills Pimpin' said:
I'm not calling you an ass for anything. My point you shouldn't consider stats in regards to Josh Allen that don't exist. One of them being his NFL completion percentage. Also bringing up the NFL CP of Deshaun Kizer and CJ Beathard is ludicris. It reeks of looking for excuses not to give the kid the opportunities he obviously deserves. If he plays with the 1's and 2's and is 55% CP and looks like a rookie then back up and punt. But FFS don't make excuses that don't exist.
Your paranoid. I'm not making up stats that don't exist and I'm not looking for excuses. They are going to start him eventually, he's a top 10 pick, so they have to. I'm just calling attention to the fact that his completion percentage in his first NFL preseason game is still below 2/3 3rds of the QB's in the league, so we might want to see that number improve before we throw him in there, or else he might suck, get benched, and his development will be ruined.
This is a thread on The National Media Buzz about Allen, and since the memory of alot of folk seems to be short its worth reminding everyone that there was a similar buzz about Kizer last year, and he was put in too quick as a result, and now no longer with the team.
Bringing up Kizers preseason stats are RELEVANT in this case, as well, because he was in a similar situation with similar college and preseason stats, National media buzz, playing against a 3rd team D, etc.
You remind me of a dad who thinks that his kid is the best player on the team and that any questioning of his special ability, despite overall evidence to the contrary, is a slight against your family.
I can picture you yelling at a pop warner coach and embarassing yourself in front of the rest of the parents.
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2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
2 blatant drops are caught and Foster runs full speed rather than looking backwards for 30+ yards while running OR flat out just stopping in the middle of a route for just 1 of the 2 bombs Allen threw him and that's 64% completion %.
Not a recognized stats across the board, but any normal person's eyes should be able to pretty easily see that culpability for 1/3rd of the Incompletions in that game lies pretty much solely on the hands of sub-par WRs who can't catch or don't understand the concept of finishing a route.
He had a couple balls that recievers made great catches on as well, but pro football focus doesn't adjust for those.
Preseason 3rd team adjusted stats are not a good indicator of anything.
You can't go by your eyes to assume that a deep ball would have been caught when a reciever slows down because the same reciever could have overrun the pass as well. Its a subjective interpretation, not an objective stat.
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2 hours ago, Bills Pimpin' said:
You should probably wait until you have some Josh Allen NFL completion percentage stats before you start using NFL completion percentage stats as a reason why Josh Allen won't be a successful QB in the NFL.
I never said that he wasn't going to be succesful, just that his percentage should be over 60 before you start him. I could take 55, maybe, but the fanboys don't want to hear that. Pro football focus gave him an adjusted percentage of over 60, so BOOM! I'm wrong, they are right, he's jesus and I'm a heritec.
And in case you didn't read anything that I said before, my ENTIRE POINT was that you shouldn't be taking his stats out context.
So now, you, who I have yet to talk to or disagree with are telling me that I am taking his performance out of context when that was my entire point to begin with.
Welcome to the Josh Allen echo chamber, where your an ass for asking people to consider stats in a comparative context, an ass for not considering stats that he has yet to put up, and an ass for being skeptical of third string preseason performance.
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54 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:
Adjusted completion percentage.That ones tricky. Its not a recognized stat across the board, and really hard to compare.
Man, you Allen fan boys really need to calm down, because you're all getting silly, and trying to pick fights with people who aren't saying things that are unreasonable.
DeShone Kizer was 11/18 for a TD and 184 yards in his preseason debut, and alot of fools who were insisting that he was the next big thing were screaming for his head not soon after. If you want to be one of those fools, thats your perogative, or you could chill out. Give him time. Stop ganging up on people who disagree with you. And resist the temptation to preassure an organization to start a rookie QB with a leaky Oline.
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14 hours ago, Nihilarian said:
If you weren't referring to my posts then why did you directly quote me? Then referred to the stats I posted as "cherry picking"?
The reason for my lengthy post was brought on by perceived condescending lecturing stated from a "research perspective".
Since we are both Bills fans I will attempt to refrain from pointing out a sequacious nature. Still, if you had read the post I linked I would tend to think that any concerns most Bills fans had with Allen's so-called accuracy issues would have been eased.
If you think I'm being condescening by pointing out cherry picking, a lack of research, and concern over a sub 60 per cent completion percentage please google "average completion percentage needed to start in the NFL"
The baseline 60% completion percentage for a starting QB is a pretty common agreed upon stat amongst people who follow these things.
In 2016 24/30 starting qbs had completion percentages over 60 and only one qb was below 55.
In 2017 25/32 qbs were above 60.
Only 2 players were below 55 - C.J Beathhard and DeShone Kizer.
If you follow statistical trends, nothing that I said should come off as condescending, unless your adverse to research (which is a hobby that fans who are interested in stats enjoy).
Teams aren't making the playoffs with QB's who are below 60%, minus a few exceptions, which includes Cam Newton (59.1) who makes up for it with his running ability.
And if you think I'm being sequacious, consensus is what stats are all about, and the reason why they are useful.
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18 hours ago, SoTier said:
Right-o. Good coaching fixes everything. So, why isn't Dareus still on the Bills?
Would you be motivated to play for the Cleveland Browns if you were their #1 pick at reciever after watching them pass on Carson Wentz?
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On 8/13/2018 at 5:55 PM, Nihilarian said:
It's not just me. Both Beane and McD placed their faith, future in the hands of Josh Allen so I think there is a real reason for all Bills fans to be excited.
Read this, It might help. https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/step-step-how-bills-knew-allen-was-right-them
I wasn't reffering to your posts, I was referring to a post made by someone else. Chill out dude, were all fans here, and you can still be a fan of the team and have concerns over his accuracy issues.
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Referring to a player as being entitled is just fancy way of blaming them for poor coaching and stupid personnel decisions.
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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
That's not what the controversy was over at all. It was simply about John's view that Allen will never be accurate.
I don't see anyone saying to play Allen too early.
It's completely clear when Allen is going to play, and it has very little to do with his completion percentage. He'll play when he's the QB who gives the Bills the best chance to win. That could be in four weeks against Baltimore, it could be in the middle of the 2018 season, it could be at the beginning of the 2019 season, it could be never.
However, to my eyes, he'll be starting sooner rather later. If he's completing 58% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, he'll start over McCarron dinking and dunkin for a 62% completion percentage and 6.8 yards per attempt. A four percentage point difference in completion percentage amounts to 1 and occasionally 2 additional completions a game. IF your QB is throwing it downfield, the extra yardage he gets more than makes up for one more 6 yard dumpoff.
Pretty simple, isn't it?
Its not that simple. The NFL is a different game today than it used to be and the difference between a 58% and a 62% completion percentage is a far wider margin than you think because teams are attempting more passes and more pass interference calls are being awarded. If he's throwing 58% at over 8.5 we are going to get murdered in time of possession and the D won't get enough time time to rest.
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48 minutes ago, JohnC said:
Since Allen was in the draft pool with the other high end prospects I considered him to be not only a legitimate franchise qb prospect but beyond that a very good franchise qb prospect. It's not a slight to not believe that he will be as accurate as two of the most accurate qbs in modern history. I really don't see what the controversy is about.
The controversy is over unrealistic fan expectations leading to pressure put on an organization to play a rookie QB too early because he was a high pick and to ruin said QB by doing so.
Let the kid develop and be happy if he gets his percentage to 60% in a year or two. Its that simple, really.
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3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:
You weren't alone as I'd say about 90% of the board hated the idea of drafting Allen before the draft. Right after the Bills selected him most Bills fans here acted like they were gut shot with that pick.
I rejoiced when the Bills drafted him over Rosen as I had done some extensive research pre-draft on all this years QB's and fell in love with what Allen brings and not just with the arm. He wasn't the most polished QB of the bunch but had the highest ceiling. In his final year at Wyoming, he played with a bunch of rookies and carried them to an 8-5 record and a bowl win.
The biggest drawback everyone had with him was with his accuracy issues and then you realize he only played a full two seasons in college which should allow him to improve those accuracy issues over time. If you take the time to research it so many great QB's started out with a bad completion percentage only to improve over time.
Joe Montana started out with a 42.4 % and left ND with a 54.2 %. While finishing his NFL career with a 63.2%. Brett Farve was another with a horrific completion percentage in his first year at S Miss with a 40.7 % to see it rise to 54.5 in his senior year. Then finished his NFL career with a 62.0.
Allen's accuracy issues mostly revolve around his footwork and he has worked very hard to improve that since he left college.
Here's the problem, from a research perspective.
His completion percentage was still below 50 and he was against a vanilla D.
You can cherry pick all the great QB's you like, but you really need to look at a larger sample size. There haven't been many, if any, QB's who have been able to improve upon a sub 60 per cent college completion percentage in the pros who were drafted in the last decade. Your looking at exceptions, not likely outcomes. That was the reasoning against drafting Allen, as a QB needs to hit at least 60 per cent to be able to start in the league (in today's pass happy era) and most rookies see an immediate drop in completion percentage in the NFL, and sometimes it never goes back up.
I get that your excited, but if you want to argue stats you can't just cherry pick from the greats who played during a time when passes were less frequent due to different pass interference rules.There are very good reasons to be concerned with his accuracy, and people who are concerned are doing there research.
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10 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said:
Just cut 'em, so the whining will stop.... ?
That was an objective observation. I think your confused.
16 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:Had Proehl or Reilly (whoever it was) not dropped that pass, and if Foster hadn’t stopped running on that long ball or slowed down to track the other long ball, suddenly Josh Allen is 12 for 19 with a 63.19 completion %.
I know that’s not how it works. But his accuracy last night wasn’t nearly as bad as that 47% stat line makes it look.
I agree that he has a ways to go yet before he’s ready to start.
There were also two nice grabs on balls that could have be INC, so its a wash. If the system is pass first, and it looks like it is, he has to be at 60 % at least. Or else we will be giving the ball back far to quickly.
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He missed over half his throws against a third string defense. That is a below average performance at the NFL level.
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5 minutes ago, Magnetar said:
lol, his first NFL pass lead the receiver out of bounds and gave him no chance.
9/19 = 47%
his college percentage in 2017 was 56%
He needs to improve in this area before he can start.
Ideally the floor is 60%, and from what we saw tonight he has a long way to go.
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18 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:
He missed a lot of throws to be truthful.
Looked alot like he did in College.
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12 minutes ago, Heitz said:
lol - 9/19, 116 1 TD and Allen showed a glimpse of what his arm can do.
Tyrod looked great tonight, good for him! I wish him success, the guy's a class act. But here, in Buffalo, BOTH of the guys vying for the staring job looked good and Allen, playing against 3rd stringers, but also WITH third stringers (who did him no favors) showed a lot of potential. I'm excited about where this offense goes after a debut like tonight, to be honest...
Let it all play out. Or become a Browns fan and watch Tyrod EVERY week I guess.
The big worry is that his completion percentage is dipping below his college percentage (as was expected). Sure the kid can make wow throws, but he did the exact same thing in college. And if he can't get to 60 per cent at least its going to be hard to win games with him.
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8 minutes ago, SCBills said:
Must be the most impressive incompletions ever because the non-agenda driven Carolina messageboard is gushing over Allen in their gamethread.
Lets offer a trade for Cam, straight up. Dudes not even at his college completion percentage let a alone a respectable NFL one. With that said, maybe A.J or Nate work out.
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Say what you want about Tyrod's Flaws, but we just traded up for a guy who is 5 for 11 against a third team defense. I'm sorry, but I would rather watch Tyrod miss the occasional read than watch Allen miss the majority of his throws.
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No. You don't trade a 1 pick which could be in the top 10 for a player that has limited control left on his contract who plays a position which isn't hard to fill with a second round draft pick. Wait for him to hit FA at least. Overpaying for defense kept this team out of the playoffs for decades. And that pick will be needed elsewhere. We have our impact lb already, and Hughes is our pass rusher.
34 minutes ago, matter2003 said:Because most likely we will be a 5 or 6 win team and that is usually top 10.
A.J or Nate + no Oline + no depth + aging RB= 5 to 6 wins. We cant afford home town luxuries. He's a great player, but the kind of player that you draft and build a scheme around.
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1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:
This is a smart observation. Although I'd argue the current roster has a blend of age, measurables, and draft statuses.
But for the sake of argument, if the GM is indeed trying to amass a roster of big, tall, and fast athletes, first and foremost...does that mean it's now up to the coaching staff to put them in positions to succeed?
True. Very true.
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18 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:
Guy thinks he can still play. He’s talking about the CFL then NFL so why not the Browns. Looking at him I’d be inclined to think he can.
So does Jerry Rice. Why not sign both? What could possibly go wrong?
National Josh Allen buzz after 1 preseason half
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by MURPHD6
You mean the people saying I'm stupid for liking stats. Also, I like Allen just fine.
I have issues with people who want him to start right away. Which makes me a pretentious hater who talks down to people about completion percentages.
Alot of dudes in this thread want to beleive that he is the second coming after one preseason game. Question that and they will gang up on you.