Last Guy on the Bench
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Posts posted by Last Guy on the Bench
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you dont roll the dice with the 11th pick especially a team like the Bills who are not one or two players away
its not even close, QB is the worst position to try and figure out in the first round
i hate this
OK, I'll give you QB is harder to predict.
But I think you either take a REALLY safe solid guy (e.g., Pettigrew) with the 11th pick, or you take someone who has an all-pro upside but a few question marks. I don't see that upside with Orakpo, and I think he's pretty risky too. But what the hell do I know? Maybe he'll be a hall of famer.
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Love it. He's the only one with the athleticism to have a chance at being a special player.
Rak is strong, but lumbering, and I think NFL tackles will eat him up.
Maybin may take some time to develop, but he's a good roll of the dice. And he's not a one-year wonder. A guy that did nothing during his career and then had a great senior year is a one-year wonder. A guy who puts up the numbers Maybin did (in the way he did) early in his college career is a POTENTIAL a-list player.
DE is the worst position to try to figure out in the first round, but I like this.
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PFW has him ranked #1 over Robinson, Urbik, and Johnson.
"Converted left tackle who lacks the size and arm length desired on the outside and projects to the left guard spot at the next level. Is very smart, quick and strong-handed and his best pro position might be at center. However, Levitre has never played the position in college and could take some time to get adjusted to snapping and stepping. Possess the toughness and versatility so highly desired by teams and should be able to start at any of three interior line positions from Day One, although a move to center could require a longer adjustment period."
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Here are some more scout comments. These rankings are quite a bit different than many of the mocks. I got this link off a post on the bb.com message board.
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I ws reading through the draft guides tonight and it ws surprising the lack of production of the some of the rookies from last year. Long, Dorsey, Gholston, and Harvey did not exactly dominate the league. I hope whomever we go after has big upside and will be able to help us more 2-3 years down the road. So much of it seems to be a crapshoot. You never know how a player is going to perform against better competition especially after signing a big rookie contract.
And those guys are all DL (Gholston was). DL is a total roll of the dice in the draft. That's why as much as I'd like to see us grab a pass rusher in the 1st, I think it might be wiser to go for Pettigrew or one of the offensive linemen. Safer picks. Then maybe take a run at a pass rusher in the 2nd.
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PFW just hasn't been nearly the same since Joel Buschbaum has gone IMO.
These quotes aren't from PFW staff (i.e., Nawrocki). They're from scouts. (Doesn't make them true, though, and I totally agree that Mayock seems to be the most reliable guy overall when you look at eventual pro performance. If Ralph hired him tomorrow to run the team, I'd be happy.)
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First off I would like to thank you for making the time and effort to share these insights with us. Based on some of these overviews it makes me think that Maybin is the pick for us. If the Bills have any reservations about him then I'd be satisfied if we got Brian Cushing. We need a good LB, especially with speed. I guess Tyson Jackson would be a good solid pick also. I could see him being an alternative for us if we didn't take Maybin. Thanks again.
No problem. I don't follow college ball, so I love reading pre-draft stuff (even if most of it turns out to be horseshite) and always appreciate it when people post it on the board.
Maybin is scary but intriguing for sure. Cushing and Jackson don't excite me too much, but it seems as though they are likely to be pretty solid players, so I wouldn't complain if either of them were the pick.
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Singular anonymous quotes from singular anonymous scouts are interesting, but that's about the extent of it. It's one guy's opinion and there are several hundred scouts looking at these guys. We as fans have no idea if that opinion is consensus or outlier or anywhere in between. Guys like Ayers who have recently been shooting up draft charts are going to have all kinds of differing and even contradictory opinions on him.
For sure. And even if the comments were consensus, that wouldn't make them right, as evidenced by all the busts and mis-drafts there are every year.
Just some stuff to add to the mix.
Myself, I'm increasingly sold on Pettigrew. Seems to have very low bust potential and will strengthen the offensive line and the intermediate passing game.
The comment about Maybin intrigued me, because it was so strong. Comments about him seem to be all over the place, so who knows?
The Raji comment was also strong (negatively). A lot of his positive hype seems to be coming from senior bowl practices. Anyone here watch a lot of BC during the year? If so, do you agree with the comment that he never dominated in actual games?
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Herman Johnson is going to be a Pro Bowler within 3 years IMO. He's Marcus McNeil, Version 2.0. Right before McNeil was drafted, everyone was worried the guy was just going to be "too big" for the NFL, even though in college he proved he could keep it under control. McNeil lasted until the 50th pick in Round 2 during the 2006 Draft, and all he's done since then is take home several All Pro and Pro Bowl awards.
What amazes me about Johnson is that people are complaining he's too big...to play Guard! I can understand the doubts if he was playing tackle like McNeil does (even though I've seen the guy play, he's got the talent to be a RT), but as a mauling guard you'd figure teams would love a guy his size there.
Whatever team takes Herman Johnson WILL be drafting the next stud Offensive Guard in the NFL.
Good take. I wouldn't mind picking him up in the 2nd or 3rd. The PFW draft mag says he was one of the biggest babies ever born in Louisiana - 15 pounds 14 ounces. My condolences to his mother's cervix.
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Here are a bunch of scout comments on various players of TSW interest from PFW's pre-draft issue (not the same same as their draft mag). No link, 'cause you only have access if you subscribe or got their draft mag. So I typed some of them up, 'cause I thought they were interesting. They are anonymous, so take them for what they are worth, but it's nice to hear some unvarnished opinions. Some of them are surprising.
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“Pettigrew is not fast, but neither is Jason Witten and all he does is get open. Do you think he would have lasted to the third round knowing what we do today? Pettigrew can block and he can catch and he will play a long time in the league. This guy can dominate when he wants to dominate.”
“We respect what Jared Cooks is – a vertical guy that can stretch the field and develop in the passing game – but he is a not a true tight end who is going to be able to play honestly on the line of scrimmage and block anyone. He can fly, no doubt. No one has better timed speed, but he does not play fast, and he is never going to play big in the run game. I don’t know how much he is going to be able to contribute right away.”
“Duke Robinson is a talented player. He is just lazy. I don’t like his worth ethic and mental stamina to be able to play and finish games. Weak-minded guys always struggle.”
“Herman Johnson is a monster. He is so naturally big he will find a place to play in the league. He has the body type you like at right tackle, but I don’t think he has enough quickness to survive outside.”
“All-star games should never hurt players as a rule of thumb, but I have a hard time getting over the way Max Unger struggled at the Senior Bowl. He got knocked around too much for my liking.”
“I liked Kraig Uribk better at tackle than I did at guard. He’s got the size and the feet to play outside. He looked more natural there to me. I thought he underachieved this year. You wish he played more nasty inside, but he does not show a lot of nastiness.”
“B.J. Raji is a dog. I hope he goes in the top 10. You show me one game he dominates.”
“I love Robert Ayers’ versatility. He can play on his feet – even if he is not great at it yet – and be like a rush linebacker. He can put his hand in the dirt and be a five-technique and rush off the edge. But he is a one-year starter that had 3 ½ sacks as a senior. His instincts are off. I’d love to have him, but at the right price. You can have him in the first round.”
“I wish we had a shot at Aaron Maybin. He’s the most athletic of the pass rushers in this draft. He is so athletic he can be anything you want him to be.”
“Tyson Jackson is the most versatile defensive end in the draft. He has been very durable. He’s not flashy, but he has started 3 ½ years in the Southeastern Conference. He will be a damn good pro.”
“I don’t know where you play Michael Johnson. He does not play the run well enough.”
“To me, the guy that was most disappointing was Rey Maualuga. He misses tackles, takes bad angles and then he will turn around and make a big hit. He will get better. He has impact value. But he reminds of The Boz. He was surrounded by a ton of talent on a great defense. It’s sick how much talent they have on that group. He really benefited from all the talent around him.”
“James Laurinaitis is very steady and had good inside slip quickness. He plays hard, but he’s not a great athlete, he’s not fast and he’s not a good take-on linebacker.”
“Larry English had eight sacks in the MAC conference. Put Brian Orakpo in there and he has 20. It’s all relative, but I have a hard time getting excited about English. Put on the Senior Bowl tape and show me what he does in one-on-one drills. He is just a guy.”
“I don’t care what the stopwatch says – Brian Cushing can run. That’s the last thing I’m worried about. Now everyone wants to compare him to Bobby Carpenter, but Carpenter never made a play on college film. He was a height-weight-speed tester with a daddy that played in the NFL. Cushing may not be great in coverage, but he can do it.”
“I was surprised at how tight Aaron Curry looked opening up his hips at his pro day . . . He has some tightness.”
“Brian Orakpo looked tight as a drum in his pro-day workout.”
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Do the Alouettes play all their games at Olympic Stadium?
No, they play at McGill U.'s rickety old stadium. The atmosphere there is pretty mellow compared to an NFL game, but it's still a fun time.
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Wasn't crazy about Preston. He played better than Fowler but that's not saying much. When our oline is getting shoved three yards back when we run between the tackles it's largely on the center.
I didn't watch him all game, but I did focus on him now and then, including some of the running plays, and he looked pretty good to me. I saw more problems at right guard. But again, I only stared at the O-Line for a handful of plays.
Regardless, I'd give him a game ball, 'cause he subbed for a starter and anchored an O-Line that gave Trent time to eat a sandwich and read the newspaper every time he dropped back to pass.
Duke held up nicely.
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No doubt about Trent and Mitchell. But I'm tossing one to Jason Peters, Duke Preston (WTF???!!!), and Donte Whitner as well.
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I think this Arizona team is better than people think. This is going to be in their home stadium in front of their fan.
Did Dallas look bad or did Washington look good. I didn't see the game today.
I had an eye on that game at the sports bar. Washington looked pretty tough, imo. They were making plays.
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CTV Toronto usually shows the Bills, but CTV Montreal mostly doesn't. It's always worth checking their website around Friday, though, cause a handful of Bills games will be broadcast (often the Pats games plus a few others).
As for bars, the best place to go that I know of is Champs. It shows every NFL game, has two sections (so there are two main games with sound - last week's Bills-Jags game was one of them), and usually has a devoted handful of Bills fans lurking about. It's not overly crowded at 1:00, so you don't have to get there super early to get a seat in front of one of the Bills TVs (there are usually at least two) but it has good energy and will get crowded as the afternoon wears on. The food is mediocre bar food, but the beer is, well, beer, and the games are, well, NFL games, so it's all good.
The address is 3956 St. Laurent, right downtown on the Plateau.
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It was shocking to see the reporter in this article actually add value to the story by making phone calls.
I used to devour all the stuff in the Buf News and D&C, but since we've had access to most of the press conferences, it's not worth it anymore. Almost all of the articles on the Bills are built on things any of us can see in the games and the press conferences. It's getting harder and harder to find a quote in an article that wasn't directly from a post-game/practice PC. Anyone here could transmit the information found in most articles, and some of the people here (e.g., Lori) could do it much more elegantly. What ever happened to developing relationships/sources over time so that a reporter could actually give us non-public insight into a team?
Anyway, I would love it if more reporters actually bothered to do what this guy did.
As for analysis, the major media are only about 5% better than the unreadable speculation on RealFootball365. I can get WAY more insight into football in general and the state of the Bills in particular by reading the posters on here who watch the game with attention, intelligence, and knowledge (e.g., Simon, Dave McBride, Badol, Kelly, R. Rich, Bill in NYC (who else is going to spend the entire game maniacally staring at the right guard?), etc.). Imagine a professional commentator who actually took the trouble to RE-watch games and look for things that aren't obvious at first glance. I already freaking know if the quarterback played well, even though I never played football and might possibly be watching the game somewhat intoxicated.
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I like it a lot. Philly has been doing this kind of thing for years. Target young players who are progressing, and lock them in a couple years before they would hit free agency (when their (presumed) increased production and experience plus a higher salary cap plus market demand will make them way more expensive). It's hard for a young player to turn down immediate money and wait for two more years, even if he thinks he might be worth considerably more down the road.
You save a ton of money this way and preserve team continuity. Of course, you have to be right on (most of) the players whom you target. Philly is. We haven't proven we can do that yet, but let's see. Imagine if we had done this with a player like Nate Clements. Even if you're wrong now and then, you're not breaking the bank. It's a lot better financially than being wrong in free agency.
I agree that this kind of financial management and trust in your own evaluation abilities actually provides more room to sign people like Peters and Evans. In fact they locked Peters up in just this way, and now have leverage. (Don't get me wrong, when a young player - especially at QB or LT - explodes into an all-pro, you just need to suck it up and pay him. I think they should offer Peters the moon, but it's still nice knowing he can't walk away.)
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Ok, so I haven't really been up to speed on the prospects this year. So, I decided to start looking at video of the "names" that the brain trust here holds in high regard.
Started with Derrick Harvey. Crappy camera work aside, his highlight reel was rather pedestrian. But what struck me very odd is that many of his sacks came courtesy of the QB running away from a #49. I looked it up, and it's Jermaine Cunningham, a friggin sophomore no less.
So here's the question for you sages, will Harvey benefit from QBs running away from Schobel?
I noticed the same thing. In fact, it took me a few minutes to realize #49 wasn't Harvey, since a lot of the pressure did seem to start with him.
But all I've seen is the one highlight reel, so I'm not particularly informed. If we take him, hopefully those who are more informed (e.g., Modrak) are right. I do know that I would love a sturdy DE with some explosiveness on the left side, but whether Harvey is that guy I don't know.
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[quote name='Last Guy on the Bench' date='Apr 17 2007, 02:59 PM' post='973569'field. Which is another reason I like Pos a bit better than Willis, since everyone says Pos's LB instincts are second to none.
Everyone ? Other than this board, I haven't seen anyone rate him higher or as high as Willis ? So even though "EVERYONE" rates his instincts second to none they still have Willis higher.
I wasn't talking about overall ratings. Clearly, most draft rags have Willis rated higher. But you won't find many that don't single out Pos for his instincts. I was just saying that I weigh instincts extremely heavily when thinking about LBs in particular. Not saying I'm right - that's just how I see it.
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I think you also have to be careful taking it to the other extreme, however, by placing too much emphasis on one or two poor times. The shuttle and cone drills, in particular, are a little bit more technique-based than the others, and poor technique can adversely affect scores.
As an example, a lot of fans try to use a poor short shuttle time to bash Marshawn Lynch, but his 10, 20, and 40 yard times, as well as his cone drill, broad jump and vertical jump are very comparable to those posted by Adrian Peterson (and Peterson in fact ran a somewhat weak shuttle time as well, 4.40). If I had to guess, neither Peterson or Lynch ran that short shuttle with good technique, perhaps over-running the mark or slipping, and it cost them time. Their other scores compare favorably to anyone at the combine and are not indicative of a player who is unathletic. So in this case, the outlier, the poor shuttle, probably should be discarded.
That's a good point. I don't pretend to know how good Willis will or won't be. If we draft him, I'll cross my fingers and join his fan club. Those times just make me a bit nervous, because they seem so far behind so many people. He can't be the only guy with poor technique.
That being said, the most important speed factor for LBs in particular is instinct and play recognition. If I run the 40 a tenth of a second faster than you, but you diagnose plays half a second faster than me, you are a hell of a lot "faster" than I am on the football field. Which is another reason I like Pos a bit better than Willis, since everyone says Pos's LB instincts are second to none.
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You make some great points, but I take exception to your comments wrt defensive backs.
We just let onne of the best in the game get away. He was most certainly one of our best players, no?
What, you don't think at times it would be OK to spend all of your day one picks and half your payroll on DBs?
I don't either, generally, but I do think paying a superstar CB and a superstar Safety on some teams make sense (e.g., Chris McAlister and Ed Reed.) I think paying two superstar receivers almost never makes sense, though the 2006 Colts and the 1999 Rams seem to throw a wrench into that argument.
As for Nate, yes he was one of our best players, and I was sad to see him go, but I think it made sense for two reasons:
1) It wasn't because we wanted some other shiny new corner (e.g., Samuel); it was because we were shifting priorities and money to other parts of the team (OL). A totally different thing.
2) Like most of our big name defensive players, Nate was outstanding in a lot of ways, but not really a gamebreaker. This defense has driven me crazy for the last few years, becase it was full of players who played great in the middle of the game and great when we got a lead, but almost never made a big play at the end of a close game to stop the other team. Spikes in particular is like this - get a lead and he's an animal, but when has he ever closed a tight game out with a big play (something seemingly every freaking New Engalnd Patriot does consistently)? I think the defense got a little better in this respect last year, and I give Jauron and Fewell a lot of credit for that. Im sure you can come up with a few game-saving plays over the last several years, but overall, the leaders on this defense have been a big disappointment to me in the fourth quarter when the game has been on the line. And that includes Nate. Our backfield will be worse without him, but I'm hoping that Levy and Jauron can fill this team (over time) with defensive leaders who know how to close out games. Whether those guys are currently on the team remains to be seen.
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Not really making a statement about who is better. I think there are very likely things that Willis does better and an equal number of things that Pos does better. I suppose that if I had a clear choice of A or B, I may take Willis. But the idea of Willis at 12 or Pos at 22 is a completely different question, and in that case, I may take Pos. The real point of the post is just to accentuate to not get too enamored with Willis' 40 time and think he is much faster than comparable players. He also lost 5 pounds to run that 40, and maybe he wouldn't "play so much bigger" at the lesser weight he needed to chop .2 off his 40.
Those times actually make me think more about Willis than Pos, and I don't mean that in a good way. I already like Pos a lot, and would be fine with him at 12, but Willis was not only less agile than Pos, he was less agile than LOTS of the LBs that were tested. An LB with great straight-line speed, but limited agility, makes me very nevous, especially because that's just the kind of package that can take you a long way in college but make you a bust in the NFL.
I would take Pos straight up over Willis at 12 or anywhere else. I like a lot of things about Willis, but I'd be more nervous if we drafted him (not totally pessimistic, just nervous) than if we drafted Pos.
My personal semi-realistic board (i.e., no Johnson or Thomas) looks like this:
Peterson (trade up with AZ or Wash)
Branch
Pos
Okoye
Lynch
Beason
Willis
I know there aren't too many around here who would agree with that board. I guess we'll see in a few years.
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Though it's a tempting thought, I don't think I'd take Johnson even if happened to have the 1st pick in the draft. I do think he's the best player, but it would throw our payroll way out of whack and result in our losing Lee Evans.
Lee's going to be up for a monster contract in a few years (I think he has three to go on his original one). There is no way we could re-sign him and carry a contract like Johnson's at the same position. I don't think you can spend that big a chunk of your cap on just the WR position. Perhaps Johnson will be better than Evans (everyone seems to think he'll be an all-timer, but we'll see). But is he better than Evans AND say Adrian Peterson (or fill in any other big name draftee/free agent superstar)? I doubt it.
It's tough to overspend on any one position, but at times it may be worth it along the lines or in the defensive backfield. I don't think WRs have enough of an impact on the game to carry two superstar contracts.
I'm sure there are many that would happily let Evans go in two or three years if we had Johnson. But I think that's a fool's game. It hurts the psyche of a team to jettison your best players just because something new and shiny comes along. I know this is all hypothetical anyway, but I say we should be working to keep Evans in a Bills uniform into the twilight of his career and spread our other big contracts around to other positions.
(That being said, I'd be as excited as anyone to see what Evans and Johnson could do together for a year or two.)
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I was bored so I thought I'd throw down a mock draft for the Bills with their first four pick (rounds 1 through 3):
1st Patrick Willis LB
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/willis_patrick
This is so logical it's not even worth an explaination.
2nd Jason Hill WR
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/hill_jason
I know many here want the Bills to get a RB like Pittman in round two after taking Willis, but I think this is a bad strategy. Having a player like Jason Hill opposite Lee Evans would be an extreme upgrade to Peerless Price (who is a shell of what he was when he lit up the Bills scoreboard many years ago) at the number two receiver position. He's super fast, was very productive in college, stayed all four years and has had great workouts. He's ready! I hope others around here get on the Jason Hill 2nd round pick express. As for Parrish, I think he's too small for that number two roll.
3rd Tony Hunt RB
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/hunt_tony
The more I see mock drafts the more I think the Bills should wait on getting their runningback till the first pick in round three. Is there really that much of a difference bewteen Antonio Pittman, Tony Hunt, Darius Walker? One of these guys will be there with the third rounder so the Bills should look at another hole to plug in the second (I think that Hill is the BEST choice, see above).
3rd Tanard Jackson CB
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/jackson_tanard
This is where you hope that one of the talented corners (like Jackson) drops. Someone will be there and I'm guessing at Jackson. He's a good fit.
Great draft. I totally agree about 2nd round RBs. If we don't land Peterson or take a flyer on Lynch, everyone will panic, because of our RB hole. But I don't see great value in any of the 2nd round RBs. We'll be able to get some committee help in round 3. The only "2nd round RB" I like this year is Michael Turner.
I've actually started feeling pretty similar about LBs. Good values in the 1st round and probably in the 3rd or 4th, but I'm not sure about the LBs who would be available to us in the 2nd - maybe David Harris, but he could be in there in the 3d anyway. So for me, it's 1st round or 3d round on LB/RB (and I'd be happy to see one of the two DTs in the 1st, as well).
Which leaves the 2nd round for WR or DB, because I think there will be real value at those two positions there. (Note: I don't even care if we draft any WRs or DBs in the abstract. But if you look at the specific players who might be there in the 2nd like Hill or Rice at WR or Hughes or Jackson (I don't think he lasts until the 3rd) at DB, they could be real impact players. I wouldn't panic and grab any old RB/LB just for the sake of it. - Now if Marv and gang love a particular RB/LB in the 2nd slot and do feel he is much better than the 3rd rounders that will be there, then that's another story. But from the couch at home, I don't see it.)
Round 2, Pick 42: JAIRUS BYRD, CB, Oregon
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Pro Football Weekly has him rated 2nd at CB behind Jenkins:
"Could bring great value as a short-area, press-zone corner, but is tough, smart and athletic enough to project to safety and could eventually develop into a ballhawk on the back end. Intriguing versatility and pedigree add to his value. He should develop into a solid No. 2 corner or potential free safety and could bring additional value as a returner."
He's only a Junior and he has 17 freaking picks.