shoshin

Covid?

Pretty interesting stuff. There was some TB vaccine discussion earlier in the covid news cycle about how they still give some of those vaccines in Japan, India and some parts of Asia that are getting underaffected right now. He praises the Gates Foundation's work, which is credit where credit is due. I will keep echoing this because there's a strange thing going on here about Gates. He downplays the significance of Remdesivir in this fight so far and utterly dismissed HCQ as pure anecdotal and has no acceptance among research scientists.

The cases and deaths are not going to go down when we reopen no matter how many masks we wear. We may hit a little lull now because we are coming out of the shutdown and weather seems to help, but this will burn through the summer and be ready to really take off this fall when instead of starting from near 0 active cases, we start with tens to hundreds of thousands. Barring the kind of breakthrough that seems unlikely, the fall is the thing to prepare for.

There is a limited track record on this virus to base predictions on, so of course the models are uncertain. This one is more relevant because it comes out of the executive so it could drive decisions.

Putting these new administration numbers into perspective, We would be at 130,000 dead by the end of the month and on track to lose almost 100,000 alone in June. That doesn't feel possible just because the numbers are so staggering. But a lot will depend on whether we reopen and see deaths remain level, which we REALLY don't want. I wonder what will be said about this report publicly. If this was bad data, or if this was one of the "unintentional" leaks that is meant to soften the public up for a much higher death toll than they have been floating.

May 1 CDC Report model projecting death rates to increase by the end of June. You'll note that this model has been historically projecting fewer deaths than actual--this is being reported as projecting 3000 deaths per day by June 1.

“Which time” was not directed at Nanker. Regarding Nanker, any error is fine of course. 11 deaths listed by state was straight out of bizzarro land.

If it's true, great, but I'm going to slide the vibration/magnetic resonance/silver healing guy to the side for now.

The point now, IMO, is that mortality rate is something we will trail on knowing for a while but have a decent bead on, and especially mortality rate for a bunch of at risk people. Hospitalization is a really good measure through phased reopening. The Trump guideline of % positive test trend going down is OK...it's trying to get at the fact that we have inadequate testing, but I don't love that one.

Which time?

Magox and I talked about this issue a lot but with 600 pages, who could follow all the talk here. This is a HUGE issue. My wife is seeing this daily with her patients and we were talking with a nurse cousin yesterday who was saying that they are not as busy right now in non-Covid cases, but the people coming in are SO much sicker than normal. A week or so ago, it was 60+% in PA.

There is only a minimal drop off in deaths and there is no steep drop in hospitalizations in some places. Both those trail cases, which of course are down with 6-8 weeks of shutdown. Since we lack adequate testing, as we reopen, we will only have hospitalization to function as a measure of our spread and outbreaks. It's a bad way to manage the disease but it's all we have. And since it's the limiting resource, governors will have to keep a close eye on regional hospital rates to ensure there are enough beds. Hospitalization bed availability will drive the reopenings, nothing else, until we get rapid testing/tracking online. Once we have rapid testing/tracking, that will drive things.

I see minimal harm in trying HCQ, but I ain't listenin to that quack.

Mortality rate remains the wrong measure for reopening now that we have a better sense of it. Hospital ICU capacity will remain the limiting resource from this point forward.

7% of people with Covid-19 don't die. The number is markedly lower than that. If it wasn't, this would be a Biblical plague.

That's not a statistic you want to be true. It's by far not the right number thankfully.

Wrong. The count from yesterday, even on that site, is not 11, a number you stated twice, but 1154. It was a low day but every weekend seems to be. Last Saturday, 1156 people died. By Tuesday, it was up around 2500. Stranger how wrong his post was.

It is a strange interaction. In another interview yesterday, he said, “We don’t know if it came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. We don’t know if it emanated from the wet market or yet some other place. We don’t know those answers.”

Did Pompeo really say it was genetically modified or not? It’s like he didn’t listen to himself.

There are people here who find the mask hot and itchy and choose to wear a transparent covering so they follow the law but have little health effect. That says nothing about the people who just wont wear it because they want to prove they can’t. So you’ll always have this and seriously best of luck to you and your mom and others at risk. I wish there was so much more we could do for the at risk population as we reopen. Pence now regrets not wearing a mask at the Mayo Clinic so maybe people will come around eventually. I applaud Pence's level leadership throughout the crisis and this admission is another example of him doing the right thing. We all make mistakes. Owning it is critical. Let’s see if we can keep the hospitalizations low. God knows we must start to reopen.

Umm OK I guess.

A state of emergency is not a shutdown. The Oregon shutdown is starting to lift on May 15, as has been covered in this thread. Bad info by a few posters on this so don’t feel like you’re alone.

No. But it’s become a misguided talking point.

That is why I noted group 1. We should be back to work for that group, but with them taking Reasonable precautions (staying home where work can be done remotely, wearing masks, closing common areas, etc). The plans are out there. The reopening will cause a death spike. My point is that we can’t lose sight of the hospitalization use and also controlling that spike as best we reasonably can.

See group 2.