shoshin

Of course not. It’s the rising of something, and exponential growth would leave us expecting non linear progression from here. Not how this works as falling cases may continue to occur and obscure rising ones. That’s why 3 days is an inaccurate window by a lot. Yes yes. The rising hospitalizations in reopening areas are what to watch now. That is a real and reliable data point. Keep an eye on that in the cities especially like Philly in a month or so. It will be excellent if we see no case rise as we reopen but the hospitalizations seem to show that’s not happening. TBD. I have no doubt people will rush to conclusions in the next week on both sides.

You are quoting Trump. It was a stupidly optimistic and naive thing to promise. And...no one believed Trump when he rolled it out but he did it anyways.

You have seen the rising hospitalizations in the south and southwest, no? Rises precede spikes. That’s exponential math. Hopefully it doesn’t happen.

“There’s no research about...” Is an outdoor gathering of 50,000 people supposed to miraculously prevent disease Tx? See 1918: https://t.co/RyorwCFy53 And Exponential growth doesn’t work in 3 days, especially as you will have falling cases from the shutdowns passing rising cases from the openings and protests. I’ll be watching hospitalizations in 6 weeks and case counts over the next 2-3. That won’t be long enough. It would be fantastic if nothing happens. But hospitalizations rising in states that have reopened makes that kind of magical thinking unlikely.

Just because they are acting stupid about the pandemic doesn’t mean you should too.

Show me the numbers going down when we are back to normal. Then we can talk about how this is over and a fraud.

I believe people will be smarter than that If hospitals get pounded and people start dying at high rates again, politics or not. Both sides injected politics into Covid, which is fine but I hope both can see past it if the time comes when we need to again.

Of course! But that doesn’t mean Covid is over and it doesn’t mean we now get to ignore it. ? Hopefully the same way most laws/regs work. The law abiding people follow them. It will take 6-8 weeks to see the exponential effect of the protests, if any. But it will start with a small rise in the next few weeks. I’m hopeful in a magical thinking kind of way that we don’t see that, but I expect to be wrong. Philly seems to be the epicenter of really big gatherings so tou can just watch their hospitalizations as a measure.

The protests in an age of Covid are stupid. Politics was injected. If hospitals get overloaded, shutdowns will be back and probably should be as the only means we may have to control spread. “May be” was a joke. Assume I said in emphasis. It’s idiotic to go from shutdown to 50,000 person *****. Or gee is blocked. Funny.

That makes no sense except to win an argument on a message board. I hope typing that makes you feel better.

All of this is true but rising hospitalizations has nothing to do with increased testing and case counts. Rising hospitalizations means we are starting to use more of a finite resource and if that rise continues, we will use it up. We need that stat to level. It’s very important. Holding 50,000 person mosh pits in the streets may be inadvisable.

We are all “us.” I’m concerned to see the rising numbers in places opening because that may not bode well for those places reopening now. Just numbers to watch. What crusade is that? I’ve been pushing to reopen/not close for a loooong time. But we also need to watch the data, especially hospitalizations. I agree 100% but Hospitalization overload as you agree, will override this. That’s why the rising hospitalizations is something to watch.

Rising hospitalizations is a troubling statistic, and it’s one that your health system is watching. This is the statistic that can’t get out of control or we have a genuine problem.

The rising numbers in the south and west are a real concern. The massive protests this weekend are idiocy.

Pepcid studies will start soon following some limited results. No idea where this is headed but it starts from anecdotal evidence like chloroquine. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/04/health/famotidine-covid-19-case-series-study/index.html

Leveling lately before many of the big cities reopen.

The rules where I am are "A" but I am living my life at C.

Trump’s head of Project Warp Speed too. It doesn’t mean it works. It doesn’t mean it doesn’t work.

Who is the they who does this for those ten? And the next ten? And who is the they keeping the database? Someone or some app has to do the job and they can identify network links that the person who is sick may not. There's a thinking that the tracing is either unnecessary or can just be left to the sick person. Those are not going to help trace cases effectively.

I don't know the answer to your question that I deleted from your post. I am curious about that too. RE the above, I said yesterday that I'd bet the farm that WDW will be rapid testing everyone who enters the world, and sports teams are already doing this in Europe so I assume we will see that here. I would not be shocked to see rapid testing at for fans going to New Era as a prerequisite to reopening. All of this is speculation but I don't think it's far-fetched. Cost nothing for the guy typing it on the internet, yes. But it costs something for the person doing the tracing, logging those contacts, following up with those contacts, building a network of those as more cases come. I see these tracers as a necessary and temporary evil like a census worker or summer landscape crew.

You’re right. I’m not sure about Wyoming but Tracing is happening in most states to some degree. Lots of people see tracing as big brother though or think it makes no difference and some states are not on top of it—but some are doing it aggressively. My state is hiring tracers like mad.

You can see which states have cases on the rise. With tests leveling in many states, cases start to indicate outbreaks. Still need the accurate rapid testing and tracing to really get on top of outbreaks but that is coming. Maybe by mid To late summer.

I think we will see leveling through the summer and rising through the fall and winter. As long as we don’t get the crippling spike, that’s ok. I am more interested in October and November when we start from tens to hundreds of thousands of active cases instead of 1. I’m hopeful that distancing, masks, taking care of the most at risk in a better way can get us through and keep everything running till the vaccine comes (for the people who believe in vaccines).

Not related to HCQ, but maybe If we all didn’t treat each 3 day window our 70-odd years as the most fraught moment of all time, hysteria could die down. It is not easy to do but it’s possible.

I haven’t dug in on this yet but scientists arguing like someone called their mom a ho isn’t about Trump (not everything is, though we fuel his narcissism daily), it’s the norm. Scientists were ***** to each other over studies before Trump and Twitter.