shoshin

Bold. It seems like you think you're talking to me. Perhaps don't paint with so broad a brush of "you guys" and assuming you know what I believe. It makes you look small-minded, and I believe you're one of the more open-minded people in this place. (Tallest Lilliputian and all that.) I guess something huge is coming. He wouldn't say that if there wasn't an enormous announcement on the way. The only thing I find surprising is that the government would get this news out before the companies.

The issue isn't the freedom to show it, it's that they are showing it on network TV because so many people believe it, like many people have posted here about the Gates/Fauci axis of poison Covid creators.

Arizona’s tests are in decline at the same time their cases and hosp dropped. I don’t think I’ve seen that elsewhere. It could be slow results from backed up labs.

The good news about AZ is that it started a couple weeks before FL and TX, so it should be just ahead of them by a few weeks.

Or maybe these are people on his quaran-team. OR maybe he is with strangers and should be masked. All I know is: I WANT TO JUDGE SOMEBODY DAMN IT ! ! ! !

Do you know who he's with? I don't. I saw Trump playing catch (kind of--imagine seeing Trump and Fauci playing catch--one can't throw, the other can't catch) on the South Lawn with a lot of maskless kids and adults. Let's just all do out best, and understand that we all will be imperfect. I saw a guy picking up some takeout food at a restaurant last week with his T-shirt puled up over his face. Probably not that effective but I had a laugh with him. After my daughter's high school graduation, in a parking lot inside cars, I saw a family friend of ours that we haven't seen in person for the last 3 months. I gave her a big hug. Pretty sure we can survive those moments as long as we're mostly on the right trajectory with behaviors.

I agree with this, though I watch the data cautiously. School mixing (which I think will be OK) is a big moment, and the fall temp change is another one. Setting aside some societal changes like that, I would think that one of the only big population areas that hasn't been hit hard yet is the NW all the way down to SFO. The Carolinas, TN, and some other places rising now won't put up the big numbers the NE put up, or that TX/FL/SOCAL are/will. If TX/FL/SOCAL follow the NE data, deaths will rise for a week or two, then fall off over 4-6 weeks. I'd think we'd be looking at much better numbers all around in those areas by mid September. Building on this great post as an aside, the spirit of unity in hating TB12 is something lost in all the CV-19 discussion. Red states hating blue states, blue states hating red states. Florida sucks. NY sucks. If only we were as eager to celebrate the things that unite us (hating Brady) as we were to rip into each other. It's really the pox of the faceless Internet, and the triple-plague of a board like this. I see lots of Americans dying, suffering. It's heartbreaking to see anyone in pain, whether it's the 92 year old in the nursing home who can't see her loved ones in her last years, the waiter out of work, the kid who can't go to school, Chuck Woolery's son, my daughter whose upcoming freshman year of college is going to be whatever it is--but not what anyone expected--I am rooting for 330 million AMERICANS. I wish we stood more united in this feeling and not just sitting here on keyboards and on Twitter (the worst) tearing each other apart. Even as I submit, I feel like this is food for trolls. Raise a beer to all of you! Though on Fridays, I go with a Manhattan when I can.

Stay classy Alex.

We don't know that for sure, but that seems likely, yes. I beleive that's at least in part due to the passive measures around masking and distancing. So you're saying that experts with a handle on all the local and national resources, sitting outside the actual line of fire, would have made better decisions? Agreed: National response and leadership would have made a huge difference.

We already have them. Just not in quantity. Yes. But I don't think we will have that many doses for a long time. Assuming 50% of the country won't take the vaccine (because they think they are dangerous), I'm not sure how much of a difference they will make in 2021.

You say that like they could have coordinated that easily and had the organization to do so. This isn't like pushing the armies around the Risk board. Every medical person in NYC was in an all-hands-on-deck moment. The hospitals has hundreds of retired doctors joining their staffs. Setting up the JAvits Center as a full medical operation was NEVER going to happen. They had tents in Central Park too.

You're all over the map here. In much of the northeast, cases as measured, and likely cases in reality, are down. So I expect we are seeing fewer cases. In other places, cases are rising. Our national %positive is a pretty useless statistic at the moment, much like it was in March when people were having Spring Break orgies without (Covid, not syphillis) consequence in Florida while NYC was racking up deaths. If you believe that in March/April, we were undercounting positives in the northeast by 10-20x, and are currently undercounting by 5-6x, we are seeing the positive effect of passive measures, especially in places that take them more seriously (the people, not the law-makers). We are clearly seeing good results because the elderly are not contracting the virus at the shocking rate they were early in the pandemic. And as we keep hearing, this is increasingly a disease of the younger people (unmasked more, less distant, etc.). So clearly the passive measures are working. Not sure how you can think otherwise.

A combination of the low IFR, herd immunity/heterogenous population, the people who accept vaccines, and general weariness around it will get us back to acting normal. I expect we will still have deaths and outbreaks but they will be in smaller pockets of vaccine holdouts and those who can't get access.

This was a bad decision but...in NYC's defense, they had no room in the hospitals and couldn't send seniors to the tents in central park. The ship was for non-Covid and not under the control of NYC. The hospitals needed a lot of coordination to set up a covid hospital and they were busy just dealing with active patients. No doubt it was bad but in the moment, the situation was a monkey f@cking a football. Vote Cuomo/deBlasio out by all means for doing the wrong thing but I'm not so arrogant as to think I might not have done the same faced with no other good choices. Nursing homes are after all care facilities. It was a clusterF of a moment and the rest of the country benefits from the ugly NYC experiment. The other things that came out of NYC that are very good were a lot of excellent treatment protocols--but those only came AFTER a lot of people died. We are figuring a lot of this out on the fly.

We will be back to normal by next summer. The one residual thing we will see is some masking, especially during outbreaks. Maybe some more hand-washing.

Many high risk people already dead (heterogeneity of the population's reactions), better treatments, better protection of at-risk people, other passive measures like distancing/washing/masks.

This seems like a credible data point, thank you.

That's the goal of Bill Gates's (evil) enterprise. I saw yesterday an estimate that by the end of 2021 if everything goes according to plan, there may be 1.6B vaccines produced. That's still not enough to cover everyone and I have no idea how they will get prioritized. I dunno. Any seed he planted in early April already had sprouted. They had no hospital capacity, few doctors, and a lot of things going to ***** at once. He should pay the political price for his decisions but I'm not sure how much data he had or what his options were. One can say, "they should have set up dedicated Covid hospitals," but that's not as easy as waving a magic wand, especially when your entire healthcare system is getting bombed out. I was and continue to think this was the right approach. Where we have gone wrong is not getting the country together on distancing and masks, that is, getting everyone to act like this is a pandemic that requires social behavior changes. That required changing people's minds, inspiring them to think, "Hey, it's my duty to make some changes and be responsible in my life and business so we can get through this as a country." Not, "I'm from Florida, do Eff NY" as the Jacksonville guy was posting. The state-by-state "plan" has proven to be a disaster, fostered no sense of community, and proven to be totally ineffective. This was not going to happen in America, and frankly, I was against this. Only NYC metro needed to be locked down and the rest of the country should have been held to regional metrics based mostly on hospitals ability to cope. But that's just my 2 cents.

That was my point. Blaming Cuomo for NYS is like blaming Trump for NJ and PA. What happened in March and April was largely unavoidable *in the moment.* In retrospect, we could have done a lot of things better including not putting patients on their backs and rushing to use ventilators, but we just didn't know. I didn't see armies of people advocating for other mitigations and treatments--hell, doctors weren't even pushing for masks for the most part back until mid-April Now, however, we know a lot better. The lack of unity and leadership is astonishing. Jesus, the president was getting attaboys this week for wearing a mask like he discovered a cure. It's July for *****'s sake. Is it some wonder that most people here seem to think masks are BS when the president won't even do the obvious?

Yup. As we should too, even while we're F-ing up our response. But look what you can do when you work smart and united instead of dumb and divided. It was a tough time really. I have been against almost all the extended shutdowns (except for NYC or anyplace the hospitals get bombed out) but the first one for 2-3 weeks while we assessed made the most sense. NYC was reeling.

What point are you trying to make? Do you not recall how little capacity there was for testing at the beginning? How little we knew about outcomes? How little we knew about spread? How little we knew about fatality? Norway would like you to look at their Covid numbers.

Our behavior can beat it pretty well do. Imagine if we had someone who could unite us against a virus. Not even a political opponent!