you actually are pretty close to the truth here. more so than i think most people understand.
it goes back to the sunni awakening. im from the bills board so i dont know if you guys have hashed that phase of the iraq war. when folks were trying to say it was the surge that turned the battle, that isnt true. all the surge actually did was provide more targets. what we actually did was called the sunni awakening. what that was we went to the very people that were trying to kill us in iraq and paid them **** loads of money to stop shooting at us. here is the issue, this same group was also being paid by saudi. so in essence ... you have a somewhat well trained, because we also trained them to be better fighters, well financed combat group that is just looking for something to attack.
so just like our somewhat creation of al qaeda .... we have done the same exact thing in iraq. when we pull out they are just going to take over. youd think we would have learned our lesson from our very our history.