simpleman
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Posts posted by simpleman
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17 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
Most people know the difference between a 5th round flyer and a QB like Rosen with premier skills that translate to the NFL.
Oh please. No one really knows how well Rosen's skills will translate into the NFL. He hasn't even taken a snap in the NFL yet. I love how people anoint someone premier and elite before they even take the field. Let us wait and see how they actually perform before we anoint them. BTW Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Jamarcus Russell, David Carr and Matt Leinart all say Hi!
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I'm not saying he will ever be a Franchise QB, but for his draft position, and his cost, he might grow into a reliable backup. Why the double standard on Peterman and Jones. Jones is given a total pass after starting a whole season, and absolutely sucking in multiple games. Yet he just "needs time". Peterman starts in his first game in the toughest position in the game, and is a 'total bust".
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1 minute ago, ytownblofan said:
Can't imagine we didn't at least match this offer... or give him a better one. Deonte might have just wanted to go elsewhere.
You really think he was worth 3.5 million in cap space when we have so little and so many needs. He was a good wr4-5 but not worth 3.5 Million when you have little cap to spend.
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2 hours ago, dbflaBill said:3 hours ago, snamsnoops said:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2754252-nfl1000-ranking-the-top-outside-cornerbacks-of-2017-season not sure I would call the 29th best corner in the league garbage.
Now let us not confuse opinions with facts.
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11 hours ago, JerseyBills said:
So many armchair GM's banging the table for the QB they like when in reality 1-2 of the total qbs taken (Rds 1-7) might be very good, and the rest will be anywhere from backups to Fringe starters, to out of the league..
Thank God we have a competent GM that isn't going to throw away precious draft capital to move up ,when he could stay put and have the same chances at finding a very good QB .
I agree completely with this premise. But I am not at all that sure that Beane has shown that he is in fact that competent of a GM. He has shown he is not so competent with all the holes he created in the team by getting rid of quality starters, while getting such low value in return for this year except lottery tickets with low odds (draft picks). As you say, there is no consensus sure thing pick this year at QB.
He also has saddled the team with a huge amount dead cap, while getting so little in return except for more lottery tickets with low odds. 31 and a half million dollars of dead cap that we can't spend on FA to fill the holes he created on our already weak roster.* If that does not define a desperate gambler, rather than shrewd operator, what does. In fact a majority of his moves have been all about giving up a sure thing in hand for a bunch of low odds lottery tickets. Either he will be lucky at the table and look like a hero, or he will come home broke and unable to make the mortgage payment. That is not shrewd thinker and planner. It is the definition of a gambler.
I hope he proves me wrong, and does not double down on those low odds tickets by giving them all away on just one big risky gamble to move up into the top 5 positions to draft a QB. We will be left with too few draft choices to fill our many holes, and as he has said, not enough cap space to fill those sorely need holes through FA with quality starters.
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Marcell Dareus $14,200,000 Cordy Glenn $9,600,000 Tyrod Taylor $7,640,000
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37 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:
I think that Beane really covets Roquan Smith and is leaving a spot open to this point for him on our roster. Getting someone such as Allen who should be able to sit for a year is a bonus as his biggest shortcomings such as level of competition while in college can be addressed this way. Rosen might have more upside but he carries more negatives as well.
I didn't mean to say I wouldn't take Allen in that trade deal, I meant that as all the top tier QBs are flawed, that I would prefer the option of getting one of the top tier QBs, whomever was available at that spot , over trading up to the top 5 and using up all our draft capital and loosing it all on a bust. The risk vs the reward is more reasonable in your trade up. I don't see any of them worth the risk of loosing all our draft capital in a top 5 draft spot trade up.
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13 hours ago, RochesterRob said:
It may be more likely that Allen could be had around the 10 spot with more teams answering their own QB questions so w/o pressure to move up in the top of the around Beane might keep his 12 and package 22 with one of our seconds and perhaps a sweetener pick to go up to 10 to get him. This way he gets LB Smith as well as a QB who can sit.
Not sure on Allen, but I like this strategy better than giving up too much to get a top 5 pick. If we can get one of the 5 first tier QBs at the cost of our 22 and a 2nd, and still are able to use our picks in the 1st 3 rounds to get Smith and still fill our worst holes, it is a win, win over spending all our draft capital on a flawed top 5 pick and the risk of having nothing to show for this draft but a bust. That risky strategy could set us back for 3-4 more years.
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7 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:
#1. Luck was as close to a sure thing as possible.. and further down you admit that thus #1 comment makes 0 sense.
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So many keep saying this is such a great year to trade up by "betting the farm" to draft a QB. I listed a few things that might actually define such a great year. And then I showed how this was not such a great year, since other than desperation and wild hunches, few of those things that might define a good year exist this year for the Bills.
Just having a quantity of flawed "maybes" and no "sure things" does not qualify this as a great year for trading up by "betting the farm". No one is mentioning any other reasons to define it as a great year, other than out of desperation and their wild hunches. I said it is not logical to "bet the farm" unless it is a sure thing. I don't think too many actually think any of the first tier QBs this year is close to even a Luck type "sure thing". How does that invalidate statement #1?
A good gambler never " bets the farm" on anything short of a sure thing. He only makes reasonable bets that he is 100% positive he can afford to lose, when he is betting on "longshots". It it not about never trading up, it is about being rational and taking risks that are reasonably proportionate to the rewards, not "betting the farm" out of sheer desperation.
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3 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:
Right so let's sit our hands for another 17 years and hope something falls our way. Sorry I've heard it before. You can draft all the great players you want but if your quarterback sucks you're going to suck. That's just life in the NFL you have to deal with it. This is the year to get a quarterback.
This is the year? Based on desperation and a hunch?
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6 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:
I'm in the trade up/trade down crowd.
One of the top 4 will fall to #10, I think it's going to be Baker Mayfield IMO. Height concerns, character concerns etc. I think he falls.
Trade up: 21, 53 and our 3rd next year to Oakland for #10, take Baker Mayfield.
Trade down: Deal 22 for a 2nd and a 3rd, recoup all the draft picks we lost in the trade up.
The result: We got a top 10 QB practically for free. 21 and 22 can be used strategically, we can move up and down while losing next to nothing.
Personally I would make that trade for Mayfield. But I really doubt it would ever come that cheap. You might be able to make that trade down, but I doubt you could make that trade up so cheaply.
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5 minutes ago, bmur66 said:
So when in the history of the NFL have all of these conditions been met?
The fact is that none of those conditions have been met for the Bills this year. If none are met, you are acting out of desperation , not intelligence. Bad gambles for the sake of desperation do not make good gambles
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The point is that a majority of those who are so hot to "bet the farm" this year to trade up are doing so out of sheer desperation, not out of logic or straight thinking. An intelligent "process" does not do things out of desperation. Unless the team truly thinks there is "the one" there in the draft, they should not bet the farm to get a "QB". A good year to draft a QB is not about the quantity of the players to gamble on, it is about the availability of "the one" you believe in that year. Desperation is a poor reason to justify" betting the farm".
I agree about bridge QBs, Kap is probably among the best Vet options available, but it is the inability of so many to separate their politics from their sport that removes that choice. There is no " the one" option truly available this year in the draft, nor as a FA. If that is the case, I would rather stay put and choose the best options available at our draft positions, or if the team felt there was no player worth the risk at that position, trade down and get more options to build the team. I would not be opposed to multiple QB picks this year, a 2nd round or late first via a trade down, and a later round pick. I think any pick this year should be considered developmental, since none is a sure thing to start.
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A “Good Year” to trade up. The quality of “the one”, not the quantity of “maybes”
A Great year to trade up to pick a QB is a year where:
1.) There is a generational talent at QB who is as close to a “sure thing” as possible.
2.) You have the trade capitol to spend to get that talent, without setting back the rest of your team for multiple years by spending that trade capitol you desperately need elsewhere. You are almost a franchise QB away from having a solid team.
3.) There is minimal need and competition from other teams for that player, driving up the cost of the trade to you.
4.) Your potential trade partner does not need that franchise QB, since they already have one. And there are no other generational “sure thing” choices at a position of need for them available at their draft position during the draft.
It is not about quantity, it is about quality when you trade up. This is a year of a quantity of “maybes”, and no quality “sure things”.
There is no consensus generational QB talent this year. All the top picks are flawed in some way or other. The last time there was as close to a “sure thing”, was when Andrew Luck was in the draft. There is no Andrew Luck in this draft. Just a lot of flawed “maybe” QB’s. No “sure thing” generational talent.
When you trade up, you do it for a specific player. Unlike being lucky in a year when you have a high pick, where you at least have better odds of the player you want being there when your pick comes up. The odds are no better that you will get “the one” during that single trade up to get there, since you choose when, and who to do it for. It is about just one player, the one that you are positive is the one. Not about how many “maybes” there are to choose from.
We may have draft capitol, but we do have so many serious holes everywhere, few teams except the Browns have more holes than we do. We have been exposed to almost 20 years of “3 year planned rebuilds”. And you want us to believe we should wait yet another 3 years, and expect for this one to turn out any different than it has for the last almost 20 years?
This is a year when there are an exceptionally large number of teams also desperately looking for their “Franchise QB”.
About the only thing you possibly have going for you this year is that there are 3 or 4 teams with high draft picks who don’t absolutely “need” a Franchise QB and are willing to trade.
A “Good Year” to trade up is not about the “quantity of maybes” available that year. It is a year where there that “one” who you believe is as close to sure thing as possible for your team is available, and you are in the best position in the league to get that “one”.
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Unless he is still injured, why would you trade him. I thought "Cheap Ralph" was finally gone. When he was healthy he was one of the better tackles in the NFL. The odds of getting a starter in the 4th round or lower are terrible. This gambling addition rampant among the TBD posters is amazing. Our O line is already a major concern and weakness on the team. Weakening it further is foolish. You want to bring in a rookie QB and destroy his potential behind a turnstyle O-line. With him gone your oline has a good but aging LG, that just lost their anchoring center, and an up and coming Tackle coming off his rookie year. There is no guarantee Dawkins will continue his growth, especially if you throw him on a line with more rookies and marginally talented players.
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8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
To me, if you try to get cute and trade down then pick him, then you don't really think he has a good chance to be a long-term answer. If that is the case, then wait and don't take him unless he is still available much later. However, if you think he has a good chance to be the long-term answer, why gamble - just take him at 21.
By that logic we would not have a Tre White on our team and an extra 1st this year. If he wasn't good enough to pick at 10, he couldn't be good enough to be a long term answer.
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If you want to take him in the first, why not look for a trade down partner and pick up an extra pick and use a later 1st on him. Chances are he will be there, or one of the other 2nd tier guys, if he is not. I'd rather have someone like him or Jackson AND someone like a White, a Falk or a Lauletta . Now that is increasing the odds of finding your developmental QB of the future. Much better than trading up using so many top picks that you have mortgaged your future for 3 or 4 years and gambling on one guy having a 50% chance of being a top QB.
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45 minutes ago, joesixpack said:
By all means let’s draft another injured player. Worked well last time
Yes, I'm sure the Pats would agree 100%, Gronk was a wasted pick by them for sure after he was injured before the draft. The draft is a gamble, it is never a sure thing.
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Bad for him. But good for us. As long as he heals he is the future. We have Groy, who I would be comfortable starting the season with at C. Working him in slowly as the future at center, or even right guard. A 2nd round or lower would be a great value pick for us at a need position. A trade down for extra picks with our 22 sounds even better. Please, please Beane, don't go wasting picks with a major trade up gamble for a QB. Pick where we stand.
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I assume that this means Gaines was asking for too much and the team decided Vontae was a better value at CB for the team. Hopefully this is at least a wash as to making the Bills a better team. I hope part of the strategy would be a mid-late round draft pick to pair with Tre for the future.
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14 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:
i think the best of theses prospects is at best a 50-50 prospect. I am not enamored with trading 4 high picks to get someone who is a coin flip to be a good starter. I would be fine with Rudolph at 21 if he gets there AND one of the 2nds on another QB prospect.
I agree totally. A 50-50 chance is not enough to not only mortgage the teams future for 2 or 3 years, but also possibly end up on the wrong side of the 50 percent .
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13 hours ago, DefenseWins said:
So take a chance for once. Trade up for what McBean thinks the best available QB out there is... The price doesn't matter... High Risk = High Reward
Oh the Casinos love people like you coming in the doors. Hey, so what if the mortgage payment is overdue and they are threatening to foreclose next week if I don't pay. I have the money to make the payment and keep the house, but hey, if I take that money to the casino and hit the jackpot I'm a millionaire and I can have a fantastic house instead of just any old decent house.
They make their profit off of people who gamble like you. I'm sure the lotto people love you too. I want a decent QB too, but with all the holes around him we need a lot of hard work to fix up the place we live in first. Instant fixes are fantasy fodder. We live in a real world, at least most of us do. Football is a team sport, he can't throw the ball, catch it and play defense all by himself, no matter how great a QB he turns out to be. And if he turns out to be a total bust, here comes another 17 years of futility ahead and the Bills team is just another a bum living out on the street.
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19 minutes ago, aristocrat said:
Similar to grimes money? 2 years 12 mil maybe?
You are dreaming if you think Gaines is two years 12 million. He will be asking for $12 mill a year and probably settle for 9-10 per year with 9-10 guaranteed.
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33 minutes ago, T-Bomb said:
Who wants the 4th or 5th best lol.
There is a big difference between the 4th or 5th prospect and the 4th or 5th best NFL QB that comes out of the draft. A prospect is just potential. The 4th or 5th QB drafted may also end up being the best NFL QB of the draft. The draft is a gamble, period!
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8 hours ago, billieve420 said:
He is going to want to be paid as a top 5 corner. Why would he settle for anything else.
Unfortunately, for him the Patriots don’t see him as one of the top CBs and they proved it by paying for Gilmore this offseason.
So he is going to need to take a 1 yr deal or take a below market long term deal which no agent would agree to.
I didn't say WE should pay him top five money. If he can get it from some team, more power to him. I just think he can get his 12+ from some team. He has nothing to prove. He has been, and is a top 10-15 corner in this league. He has been undervalued and disrespected by the Pats. Hope he finds a team that values his contributions. Would you pay 10 for EJ Gaines or 12+ for Butler? Butler is definitely an upgrade over EJ and has been more durable. I like EJ, but would not pay that much for either. And to think that Darby is rated higher than both, has a Market value higher, and we could have had him next year for about 4.(Spotrac) Great trade.
Are We a Playoff Team with A.J. ?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Proving the point that you are the know nothing. AJ has a passing playoff touchdown and TT has zero. Before you criticize someone make sure of your facts.