Haplo848
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On 9/8/2021 at 9:36 AM, Dont Stop Billeiving said:
Congrats everyone, we made it through another long offseason and the games that count are finally here. Figured I would continue this series of posts for a second season if you'll indulge me. Just a quick note that this post for our Week 1 opponent will be a bit different than the usual format given that we only have the preseason to go on so far and all the changes to both teams this past offseason through free agency and the draft.
To begin the 2021 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers are in town to face our Buffalo Bills in front of what is sure to be an incredible crowd and atmosphere (expecting some serious chills when I first hear that crowd noise on Sunday). I think the general consensus seems to be that these two teams are headed in opposite directions, but the Steelers still have some blue chip talent particularly in that defensive front seven and they are a veteran-laden team with winning/playoff experience. I have reviewed the game tape from our 2020 match up with Pittsburgh as well as the four Steelers 2021 preseason games in order to get a sense of the team we'll see on Sunday.
Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Steelers' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week.Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings***Not applicable yet***Recap of the Bills' 26-15 Win against the Pittsburgh Steelers At Home on December 14, 2020:
- The first half was really tight and Pittsburgh looked like the better team early despite missing Joe Haden, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush, and a few others. It wasn't until Taron Johnson's pick-six at the very end of the first half that the tide started to turn. We led 9-7 at halftime.
- The Steelers got a ton of pressure on Allen early and Cam Heyward terrorized our IOL in particular. However, the line adjusted and kept Allen clean in the second half. With more time, Allen and Diggs began to pick apart the Steelers secondary as the Bills scored 23 unanswered points.
- However, once we went up 23-7, we allowed Pittsburgh to drive straight down the field with chunk plays where they scored a TD and two point conversion in less than three minutes. One of the most frustrating drives our defense gave up all year.
- Dawson Knox had one of his better games (he did play well to end the season) and drew a critical pass interference penalty on a deep pass that gave the Bills a first-and-goal from the two yard line. We should have scored a TD, but settled for a still important FG and a two possession lead.
- Zack Moss had some huge carries in the fourth quarter that helped keep the chains and clock moving, running through and around defenders. A sign of what he could become if he stays healthy.
Key Takeaways from Pittsburgh's Four Preseason Games:
August 6th- Hall of Fame Game Win against the Dallas Cowboys by a score of 16-3 in Canton, Ohio:
- Chase Claypool, Najee Harris, and some of the younger expected starters played the first quarter in this game.
- Like most NFL teams, the Steelers are in a lot of trouble if Big Ben goes down injured for any amount of time. Mason Rudolph looked shaky and dropped an early jet sweep handoff for a lost fumble. Dwayne Haskins looked sharp enough in his initial appearances, but looked completely hopeless in the loss to Carolina.
- The early signs were good last season and Alex Highsmith (a guy I liked a lot for the Bills in the 2020 draft) looks like he could make Steelers fans forget all about Bud Dupree. Has great burst and generated a lot of pressure and at least one sack from his ROLB spot.
- Claypool and James Washington both had key third down drops that killed drives. Something to watch as Pittsburgh had one of the worst drop rates in the NFL in 2020.
- Harris has the size to run through arm tackles and the speed to get to the edge as well, he looked impressive in limited action.
- Thought Dallas was able to use misdirection to take advantage of some over-aggressiveness by the Pitt defense really effectively.
- I'm sure that the coverages were on the vanilla side for preseason, but the Pittsburgh secondary did not impress. Plenty of blown coverages and wide open targets for Dallas. Their starters and depth in the DB room should concern fans.
- Pittsburgh pulled away once the fourth stringers were in, but it was a low scoring defensive struggle when most roster-able players were involved. For example, it was 3-0 Cowboys with 11 minutes remaining in the third quarter and most stats favored Dallas overall.
August 13th- Win on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 24-16:
- Most starters played in this game with the exception of Big Ben and a couple others.
- Pittsburgh blitzed Jalen Hurts and Joe Flacco a ton, but they were generally able to escape pressure and find the open WR to move the chains.
- Anthony McFarland flashed a few times and has looked like a key back up to Harris in the preseason. However, he's landed on the IR so Jaylen Samuels/Kalen Ballage will have to pick up the slack whenever Harris needs a breather. Benny Snell has been dealing with an injury all preseason and didn't feature until the last preseason game.
- Terrell Edmunds overran a short pass behind the LoS, then got walled off by a lineman, and Philly's rookie WR Quez Watkins made him pay with a 79 yard TD. Edmunds is known for some big hits and some timely takeaways, but he is one of a few weak links in that secondary especially if you can isolate him in coverage.
- Justin Layne (likely their 3rd CB on Sunday) positioned himself well and picked off Nick Mullens on a slight miscommunication between QB/WR on the route.
- Similar to the first game, Pittsburgh's opponent dominated the early parts of the game and the Steelers really only came back once the depth players were on the field. It was 13-0 Eagles with two minutes to go in the first half. The Pittsburgh third stringers then dominated the rest of the game in points, yards, and TOP.
August 22nd- Win at Home against the Detroit Lions by a score of 26-20:
- The starters including Roethlisberger got their longest run out in this game.
- Eric Ebron had a crushing drop on third down after Ben made a great play eluding some pressure to get the ball across the field to him.
- Roethlisberger responded on the next drive by hitting Diontae Johnson on a 40 yard completion (the coverage was pretty terrible to be fair but the willingness to throw deep stood out). He then hit Pat Freiermuth later in the drive for the Steelers' first TD of the preseason involving their starters (they'd connect for a second TD over the top of an LB in coverage on the next drive as well). Arguments can be made about the value/draft capital they spent, but Harris and Freiermuth look like two solid building blocks for that offense.
- Harris made a catch on a short crossing pattern and then gave a great YAC effort, eluding two defenders and tiptoeing the sideline for 25+ extra yards.
- Melvin Ingram made no impression on me throughout his time on the field in any of these games. I thought he had more left in the tank, but I can't recall seeing him affect the QB even once.
- Opposite of the first two games, Pittsburgh dominated while their first and second string players were in and then took their foot off the gas (20-0 Steelers at halftime).
August 28th- Loss on the road against the Carolina Panthers by a score of 34-9:
- Sam Darnold looked really effective against the Steelers (19/25 for 162 yards and 2 TDs) despite facing a lot of pressure now that he has actual NFL talent around him. He spread the ball around and led Carolina to a 17-0 lead at HT. A lot of their young players and recent draft picks impressed me, they're a couple years away in a tough division, but I like what they're trying to build at Two Bills Drive South.
- Derek Watt and old friend Ray-Ray McCloud dropped early passes with Watt's resulting in a tip drill INT for Carolina.
- Claypool can be an effective weapon on jet sweeps and reverses, something to look out for.
- Robert Spillane had his moment last season with all of their LB injuries, but he has looked slow to react vs the run and exposed in coverage as well. Would be trouble for Pittsburgh if he had to start for any length of time IMO.
Sunday September 12th Preview- Week 1 Pittsburgh Steelers (current record: 0-0) At The Buffalo Bills (current record: 0-0):
Bills On Offense- Pittsburgh's front seven is still the strength of this team. I expect them to get pressure on Allen and make running inside the tackles a difficult proposition. Devin Bush and Alex Highsmith are promising young players who I think could break out in 2021. However, there are questions going into Week 1 with TJ Watt's holdout (I expect him to play, but will his non-contact preseason have an effect on his fitness/performance?) and Stephon Tuitt's absence due to injury. Bud Dupree is gone replaced by Melvin Ingram. Cam Heyward is still one of the most underrated players in the entire league IMO and Tyson Alualu is an outstanding run defender, but they are 32 and 34 respectively. The Steelers run defense faltered down the stretch last year and I think we could see the Bills attack the edges (hopefully Breida is active and gets a few snaps to use his speed this week). Their obvious weakness on paper appears to be the secondary. Minkah Fitzpatrick is a ballhawk, but I thought he benefitted from turnover luck last season and we neutralized him in last year's matchup. Joe Haden is back (although he's 32 and reportedly unhappy about his contract) and he's a solid CB1, but I don't believe he can hang with Stefon Diggs. Then right down the line, the Bills should have the matchups to exploit with Sanders, Beasley, and Davis against Terrell Edmunds, Cam Sutton, and Justin Layne who are average to below average players in coverage. If the offensive line can give Josh time to throw, there are a lot of chunk plays and points to be had.
Bills On Defense- Big Ben is getting up there in age (39) and hits taken as he enters his 18th season. Pittsburgh has a new offensive coordinator and scheme although Matt Canada's scheme replicates a lot of what the Steelers did in 2020 with plenty of pre-snap motion (noticeable in their preseason games) and quick passing. Last year, it appeared Ben's arm strength declined and he was less mobile/less willing to stand in the pocket, throwing shorter passes and getting the ball out in an average of 2.17 seconds (by far the fastest in the NFL). His overall stats in 2020 look good on paper, but he recorded his second-lowest passer rating against the Bills. Roethlisberger also did not perform well under pressure (another factor in their quick passing strategy I'm sure) and that's bad news because the Pittsburgh offensive line (which used to be the gold standard of the AFC not too long ago) has lost David DeCastro, Alejandro Villenueva, and Maurkice Pouncey and replaced them with inexperienced (two rookies in Kendrick Green and Dan Moore) and replacement-level (Trai Turner and Chuks Okorafor) options. PFF rankings aren't the most logical or consistent all the time, but they ranked the Steelers O-line 31st which matches the eye test in my view.
Najee Harris, on the other hand, looks like he could be the real deal. He's a powerful runner and an impressive receiving back who will be the focal point of this offense. Harris does an outstanding job after contact and seems to always fall forward for the extra yard. Whether he was worth the first round capital it took to get him or not while they had so many other needs is another story. The Pittsburgh WR room is deep and versatile, but lacks a true #1 guy and really struggled with drops last year. Chase Claypool is a big play threat with a lot of YAC ability. Diontae Johnson is an underrated player who makes that offense tick. That's before we even get to JuJu Smith-Schuster (of Crate Challenge fame) and James Washington who can play above the rim and are both capable of big games in their own right. Combined with co-starters Eric Ebron and second round pick Pat Freiermuth, that's a versatile arsenal of receiving weapons. However, I think our usually strong pass defense matches up well with their skill players and Pittsburgh lacks the elite speed which has hurt us in the past (see KC). The Steelers should be a better running team this year and lean on that more so I think the Bills defense needs to drop Poyer or Hyde into the box on most plays to help vs the run and then look to jump shorter routes that present day Big Ben loves. Finally, I'm watching and hoping for this 2021 Bills defense to reverse a worrying trend of poor tackling and for them to disrupt passing lanes even if they can't get to the QB.
On Special Teams- McCloud handles most of the returning for Pittsburgh and actually cleaned up his ball security issues to a large degree last season. The Steelers like him a lot and extended his contract this offseason. The kicking game is in steady enough hands with Boswell although he missed his final XP and they have a new rookie punter Pressley Harvin III who performed well in preseason.
Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. The Steelers are a well-coached veteran team with some exciting players, but the NFL is a matchup league and I think the Bills are perfectly built to take advantage of Pittsburgh's weaknesses at offensive line and defensive back. The Bills are also relatively healthy (a few bumps and bruises, but Marquez Stevenson is the only player that doesn't have a chance to play on Sunday) while Pittsburgh has suffered some key losses on both lines already in Stephon Tuitt and Zach Banner. The Highmark (not sold on this?) will be rocking and the Bills have to be confident that they can be even better than last year's team and move to 3-0 over Pittsburgh since Sean McDermott took over.
Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!
Great thread, and thanks for doing this!
With regards to my highlights in your OP, it's hard to be a worse running team then they ended up being last year. But my question is, exactly how much do we have to worry about that? You mentioned yourself that their offensive line was, well, offensive. Even if Harris is as good as advertised, it's still difficult to do anything if defenders are in your face before you even receive the handoff. Just ask Singletary and Moss.
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I'm kinda surprised Fields is still in there at this point. He's getting banged up. They're going to get him killed.
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Wait, they called roughing the passer when fields ducked down into the hit, but DIDN'T call the obvious "tackling low around the legs" roughing the passer penalty against us!?
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Personally, compared to last year, the Bills are probably going to be better, but so are most of the other three teams. I say most, because personally, I think the Jets will take a step back. They're going from a 4-year starter to a rookie QB. There's going to be some growing pains. The jets have less of a chance to beat the the Bills than they did this year.
The Pats brought in some free agent talent, but a lot of that depends on Cam Newton throwing them the ball (I don't think Mac Jones will start this year, or at least at the beginning of the year), and Cam showed that throwing isn't really his strong suit. The problem is that they will be getting back some defensive talent from the opt-out list. That could give us some problems. All in all, their chances of beating us are probably about the same as last year.
The Dolphins have been stacking talent through the draft. They probably have a better chance of beating us than last year, but last year, we played our starters for only half a game, the Dolphins were playing for their season, and they still got destroyed by ~30 points. Their chances of beating us will be better than last year, but I don't think they WILL beat us. However, as all these high draft picks develop, they could give us fits in the future.
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2 hours ago, MPL said:
The Browns put up 42 on this defense in week 14. Jarvis Landry had a huge day and Baker made a ton of throws off schedule and out of the pocket. I think there's reason to believe that Josh and our WR corp can have success.
Of course, the Ravens put up 45 in this game, even with Lamar taking a 10 minute bathroom break. I think our D is better than Cleveland's but who knows. This game could be wild.This doesn't really show what that game was truly like. The Ravens had only 2 CBs left, and all their starters were injured, so they were running out backup safeties to play corner. It was a mess. Unfortunately, the Ravens have gotten healthy since that game, so it's not going to be as easy to move the ball on them as it was for the Browns that night.
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2 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:
I'm very skeptical of these sorts of college highlight reels. I recall when we traded the farm for Sammy Watkins, there was a lot of buzz about how he would rack up the YAC. There were some highlights where he just plowed over defenders, sending them ass over elbows. The problem is: blown tackles like this just don't happen in the NFL. There isn't a third-string linebacker active in the regular season who will get blown up like that. The vast majority of NFL linebackers are going to make that tackle, and if Moss is going to make it a habit of running straight at linebackers, he's going to get stuffed. Often.
Only that's not a LB. That's a safety. And safeties DO get run over. And when LBs don't get their feet set, they get run over, too. Worst case scenario here is that an NFL LB drags him down after a good game, and the LB gets worn out, making it harder for him to bring Singletary down.
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I'm of the opinion that the NFL will try to keep players essentially in their own quarantine with rigorous testing to make sure it doesn't spread through the players. Use only a couple playing fields so that players don't have to travel much and risk getting sick. No fans the entire season.
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Any takes on why Prince Tega is falling this far? I thought it was surprising he fell out of the third round, and he's still there in the 6th...
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15 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:
Both Daboll and Allen seem to like the "Empty" formation with 5 receivers and no RB in the backfield. I have tried to find some stats that break down how often the Bills used this formation compared to other sets on pass plays last season, but I haven't been able to find them on line.
The addition of Diggs this year completely changes this formation for opposing teams to defend. Defenses would typically sub into their Nickle or Dime packages and move a safety over to John Brown's side to cheat on him and cover him high boxing him between the corner and the safety. That takes two of the 5 or 6 DB/LB out of the play covering Brown leaving 3 or 4 DBs / LB to cover the other four receivers in the play.
Now defenses are going to have to cheat to Diggs side with that safety coverage over the top which will leave Brown with a single defender. Can they double Brown too? They are running out of DBs to cover all of the receivers on the line now. Do you put Foster and McKenzie out there with Diggs and Brown and have them all sprint deep and clear out the entire middle of the field for Beasley on a quick slant to the middle? That play sounds like an easy 7-10 yards 4 out of 5 times. Do you curl Beasley and Duke into the middle of the field and pull coverage down into the box and leave a corner one on one with Diggs, Brown, and Foster streaking straight down the field? One of those guys is going to have one on one coverage with no safety help over top and will be there for a big play.
There are only so many CBs to go around. Who ends up with the LB or Safety on him... Foster, McKenzie, Beasley? I'll take that match up every time.
What happens when Daboll has all the receivers run deep and then pulls the guard, Allen tucks the ball and runs behind those big O-lineman into the cleared out side of the field. Let Allen get a couple nice chunks of yardage on that play and now the D-Coordinator is going to have to worry about dropping all his LBs into coverage to help his DBs on these empty sets. If Allen sees the LBs cheating into coverage he audibles to the run play. If the LBs are tight to the line, he sticks with the pass play. What a nightmare for the defense.
You just have to pick your poison if you are the defensive coordinator and decide who you are going to cheat on and just pray you don't get burned.
The amount of variations and twists and different combinations that Daboll will be able to scheme up with this "empty" formation will be crazy this year and I expect that we are going to see tons of this 5 WR set this season. The line should give Allen the time and now he has the weapons out there with Diggs in the mix to make it very dangerous for defenses to cheat. I'd love to see Beane pick up a vet WR4 like Rashard Higgins and let him push Duke, Foster, McKenzie and the rookie WR in camp to get on the field.
I don't think Allen is going to have too much trouble throwing for 300 yards in a game this season. This is going to be fun to watch.
So correct me if I'm wrong, but most of the time we saw empty backfields, there was still 11 personnel on the field. We'd just split a RB and TE out wide as well. Put them in interesting orders, though, like putting the TE on one side (or a TE and RB on one side) and everyone else on the other, forcing a CB over to cover the TE, would be interesting. Especially since they'd be more likely to be in their base defense or nickel defense then in a dime formation. Still, you could end up with the same situation you talk about here.
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1 hour ago, Billl said:
You get average at best talent drafting skill position players in mid rounds. Everyone on here talks about how Allen and Mahomes would look if you switched their supporting casts. Then when there’s a potentially elite target that costs what potentially elite targets cost, suddenly everyone’s fine with Great Value brand weapons.
You want to be the one to tell JuJu that he's average at best? How about Tyreek Hill, drafted 166th overall? Stefon Diggs, #146? Davante Adams (#53)? John Brown (#91)? Keenan Allen (#76)? T.Y. Hilton (#92)? Antonio Brown (#192)? AB may have gone insane this past year, but he was one of the best to play the position. WR has become the one position where you can find great players all the way through the draft as long as you know what you're looking for. There are so many different college WRs out there that can each do at least one thing REALLY well. If that WRs skill set matches up with what you want them to do, you can have a star that was drafted late.
Now let's look at the Chiefs WRs: We have Tyreek Hill drafted in the 5th round, Demarcus Robinson in the 4th, and Mecole Hardman was #56 overall. Sammy Watkins was their 4th WR, and he was drafted in the top 10. If you're arguing that we should replicate what the Chiefs have done, you'd be rooting for us to draft those "Great Value brand weapons."
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2 hours ago, ScorpionZero said:
You don't remember all the prognosticators calling the Falcons nuts for moving up to draft Jones. How is this any different.
This is very different. Julio Jones was a better prospect than Lamb. More importantly, the OTHER draft prospects are incredibly different. We have probably THE deepest WR class there has ever been coming up this year. Even if you don't get the top two, you're still probably going to get high impact starters throughout the first two to three rounds of the draft. In Julio's draft class? Not so much. There was him and A.J. Green, then...no one. The next WR off the board? Jonathon Baldwin went to the Chiefs at 26. Titus Young was the fourth WR off the board to the Lions at 44. Other than Torrey Smith and Randall Cobb who went in the late 2nd round, and who were never great, but more role players, there's not a single other good WR in the draft other than those top 2. If you did not get one of the top 2 WRs, you essentially didn't get a WR at all in that draft.
Now, if you look at that and still think "Hmm, we should STILL pull a Falcons and make a desperation trade that we hope will work out in order to get one of the top two WR prospects of the class, when there are PLENTY of slightly lesser prospects" then there's really no hope for you as a scout, and I'm glad you're not part of the Bills' organization. Keep in mind that it's not "top two WRs," but "top two WR prospects." There's a definite difference between the two that a lot of people forget.
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28 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:
Probably the qb sneak where he fumbled, found it, picked it up and dove for the first. Then got stood up but fought and got the first with the second effort against Dallas
Let's be honest, it can't NOT be this play
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1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:
OK, we all know that people around here just love to cling to their concern, so I've invented a method of measuring the pulse of TSW posters' concern.
Behold: THE CONCERN-O-METER!Now's your chance to go on the record and let free your demons of concern by listing in this thread for all to see your concern level going into the last five games of the year! Without further ado, I ask you this:
On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is Genghis Khan and 10 is a doddering old woman afraid of everything she sees on her day filled with Cable TV news, how concerned are you about the final 5 games of this season?
I'd really like a poll in this thread, in order to see how concerned people are in one glance. Can you make one for us OP?
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*Facepalm*
I just remembered that that is correct, the Bills haven't gotten to 10 wins in a season since 1999... -
The NFL REALLY needs to stop putting the Giants in prime time slots. I get that NYC is a big market, but they make for an absolutely s*** product on the field. The two Steelers games, the two Giants games, the Redskins game, and the Pats/Jets games are all going to be horrible. The rest...could actually be pretty darn entertaining.
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Honestly, despite Mayfield looking like the best rookie QB last year, at this point I'm putting Mayfield at 4th in the 2nd year QB rankings. Darnold, Allen, and Lamar Jackson all seem like better players right now. I just can't help but feel like those three put a lot more work in to improve in the offseason, while Mayfield is still at where he was last year.
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Interception!!!
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How does Ducasse still have a job?
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Just now, The Bills Blog said:
What are you talking about?
The effort to get onto the ball there. He whiffed on picking it up, ran past it, then kinda just stood and looked at it afterwards instead of just diving on the ball. It would have been 4th down, but we would have punted it, forced them back inside their own 20, instead they got the ball at midfield
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Oh god, Barkley, that was pathetic...
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I'm really amused. We've completely stuffed the Colts run game, so when they just made a 4 yard run on 2nd and 10, the Colts team feed got all excited and was like "He found a seam! He's had our two best runs of the night so far, now!" I'm just sitting there like "calm down, Sassy Pants, it was a 4 yard run."
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Didn't someone mention that they were disappointed by Singletary's showing so far? After this drive, I'm not...
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Our defense is fun to watch...
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Now that the KC game is over, which game scares you?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Now that we're sitting pretty at 4-1 after dominating the Chiefs, what is the game that scares you the most? And you can't say the Bucs. The Super Bowl Champs and Brady are the obvious choice. Before the season, I would have said the Titans. But they've been struggling a bit this season, despite the 3-2 record, and our run defense is doing a lot better than it was last year when we faced them. So, assuming no huge, season-changing injuries occur, which game worries you the most? Is there a game you think we might have a let down game and lose one we should win? Is there a game you DON'T think we should win? Let me know your thoughts.