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Haplo848

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    Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    I'm rather amused at all the people who think Keon Coleman is slow. Dude plays at speed. He had the fastest speed of anyone during the gauntlet drill in the past 2 years at the combine, which reflects actual play speed much more than the 40 does. He was even faster than Puka Nacua last year.

     

    Did anyone actually go and watch his 40? Dude's simply not a track star. He started slow because coming out of his stance, he popped up instead of bursting forward. If he had spent more time on the track with someone who knew what they were doing, and could help him with a better start out of his stance, spending time fixing an issue that in no way actually relates to football, he likely would have shaved AT LEAST 0.1 seconds off, likely more. And no one would be talking about him being slow. But they look at that number, decide he's slow, and ignore everything else, especially his play speed.

     

     

     

    He LOOKS slow when he's running because his legs don't seem to be moving as fast as you're used to, but when he's trying to outrun people, his stride lengthens, and with his long legs, every one of his strides eats up distance, and he covers ground at a surprising rate.

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    Speed: I do the math here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    6 hours ago, PayDaBill$ said:

    A lot of other factors come into play, running 40 yds in a straight line isn’t quite the same with gear on, running routes and tracking the ball. It’s just another athleticism metric.


    from a nbcsprts.com article in March.

     

     

    “Timing of players at the Scouting Combine isn’t just done with stopwatches. It’s also done with chips worn by every player, that tracking their speed during every drill. And last year, that player tracking data showed off the talents of Puka Nacua, a relatively unknown receiver out of BYU who went from fifth-round pick of the Rams to the most productive rookie receiver in NFL history.

    Nacua wasn’t great in the traditional tests of athleticism that the NFL has relied on for decades, recording a 4.57-second 40-yard dash. But the player tracking data showed he was the fastest receiver at last year’s Combine in running through the gauntlet drill, in which a receiver runs across the field and catches seven passes in rapid succession. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Nacua reached the fastest speed of any wide receiver during last year’s gauntlet drill at 20.06 mph. That tipped teams off that Nacua plays faster than he runs, something that Nacua proved in his rookie year.

    This year, Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman was similar to Nacua: Coleman ran a disappointing 40 time of 4.61 seconds, but he reached the fastest speed in the gauntlet drill, topping out at 20.36 mph — even faster than Nacua last year. Coleman also reached the second-fastest speed of any wide receiver in his group while running a go route, reaching 21.71 mph.

    The player tracking data is new, and there’s not a long history of being able to study how well it correlates to NFL success. But it may prove that players who show elite speed during the on-field drills that more closely approximate what they do on a football field prove to be better players than the ones who run the fastest in a straight line for 40 yards.

    In hindsight, teams wish they had paid more attention to Nacua’s player tracking data than to his stopwatch time. Coleman will hope teams remember that during this year’s draft.”


    He’s not SLOW …. He has athleticism & speed in the context of the game.

     

    This. 

     

    This is it exactly. 

     

    Besides that, did anyone actually go and watch his 40? Dude's simply not a track star. He started slow because coming out of his stance, he popped up instead of bursting forward. If he had spent more time on the track with someone who knew what they were doing, and could help him with a better start out of his stance, he likely would have shaved AT LEAST 0.1 seconds off, likely more. And no one would be talking about him being slow. But they look at that number, decide he's slow, and ignore everything else, especially his play speed.

     

    He LOOKS slow when he's running because his legs don't seem to be moving as fast as you're used to, but when he's trying to outrun people, his stride lengthens, and with his long legs, every one of his strides eats up distance, and he covers ground at a surprising rate. 

    Buffalo @ Philadelphia Game Thread - 1st half

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    I am absolutely sick of the biased reffing in the NFL. The last two offensive plays were incredibly obvious penalties against the Eagles, a hit to the helmet against a defenseless receiver and pass interference. Neither got called. Any time the Bills get a lead, the refs have to rubber band the opposition, try and get them back in the game. If it was the Chiefs, both would have absolutely been called.

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    The Truth About the Bills Run Game

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    22 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

    THE TRUTH ABOUT THE BILLS RUN GAME

     

    There's a lot of misconception about the Bills run game this season, most notable is the notion that the Bills are not successful running from the gun, that the Bills Zone Scheme run game is horrendous, and that the Bills should never run from gun in short yardage situations. I took the time to break down every run concept from Week 1 through Week 10 in order to take a deep dive and flesh out what's real and what's just national media and message board noise.

     

    Through the first 10 weeks of the season it appears as though we hang our hat on 5 different run concepts. Three of those concepts being Zone blocking schemes (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, and Duo), one being a Gap blocking scheme (Dart), and one being Man blocking scheme (ISO). We've run each of these concepts at least 20 times on the season. In total we've run 21 different run concepts - 8 Zone (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, Duo, Sprint Draw, Split Zone, Zone Read, Q Draw, and Outside Zone), 9 Gap (Dart, Counter, Pin & Pull, Buck, Long Trap, Power, Q Dart, Q Counter, and Trap), and 2 Man (Iso and Base). All of our top 5 concepts except ISO average over 4 yards per carry but, more importantly, all of our top 5 run concepts have a Success Rate above 65%.

     

    Success Rate (SR) is a measure which adds context to our rushing data, something yards per carry does not. We define success rate as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% of yards required on 3rd and 4th down. Dart, which also has the highest yards per carry average of 6.83 yards per carry also has the highest SR at 75.9%. This is clearly our most successful run concept. Dart has been primarily run out of Gun (27/29 attempts), and when run out of gun averages 7.07 yards per carry while only averaging 3.5 yards per carry while run from under center. Similarly, Inside Zone (our second most successful play at 66.7% SR and 4.48 ypc) has an 81% SR when run from Gun as opposed to 45.5% when under center.

     

    The Bills are Not Successful Running from Gun

     

    Overall, this season we've run 83 times from under center for an average of 5.06 yards per carry and a SR of 54.2% and 123 times from gun for an average of 4.5 yards per carry and a SR of 61.0%. So we are more successful when running from the gun than we are running from under center. When you look at the splits the only time we've been more successful running from under center than gun has been on 2nd and medium (4-7).

     

    The Bills Zone Scheme Run Game is Not Good

     

    Overall, Zone and Gap have the exact same SR (57.4%). Man schemes have the highest SR at 66.7% which is to be expected because it's run most in short yardage situations where the yardage to gain is easier to attain. Specifically our Inside Zone and Duo concepts, which were ripped in some video that made its rounds around here a few days ago, are both averaging about 4.5 yards per carry or better and a SR of over 60%. The notion that these two schemes have been detrimental to our run game are just false.

     

    The Bills Should Never Run from the Gun in Short Yardage Situations

     

    In Down and 0-3 yards to go situations the Bills have run from under center 18 times for 4.89 yards per carry and a 66.7% SR while running from gun 30 times for a 5.03 yards per carry average and an 80% SR. Specifically looking at 3rd down situations the numbers still favor running from gun though the samples are admittedly small from under center (Under Center: 3 for 2.67 and 66.7% SR | Gun: 15 for 2.87 and 80% SR).

     

    Overall Thoughts

     

    It's clear to me from watching the film and going through the data that we have been successful running both out of gun and under center this year. All these rumors being spread by national media and message board members that we should not be in gun or should not be running zone schemes are just rumors. Obviously, scheme is very dependent on what you will see from your opponent, but the data shows that the Bills are establishing a clear identity as to what they want to do in the run game and where they think their strengths lie as a team. What was frustrating was going back and seeing how many times drive stalled out because we refused to run the football even after statistically successful run attempts. This has been one of the biggest components in why our offense has struggled over the last however many weeks.

     

     

    Is running from gun a bad thing still talked about this year?  I understand it in the previous years, because our run game was pretty bad, but especially out of the gun in previous years, but this year, I've been incredibly frustrated by the lack of run plays called.  Before the Jets game, while we were in our 6(?) week slump, it seemed like we'd go nowhere when hyper focused on just passing the ball, but when we'd have drives where we were balanced and ran the ball, good things would happen.  The only problem was, Dorsey kept refusing to call run plays.  It seemed like we'd drop back and pass it three times, but they'd be waiting for it all three times, and we'd go three and out.  However, when we sprinkled in the run, they wouldn't be expecting it as much, and so we got some good yards on the ground.  So they'd be forced to respect the run, at which point the coverage would loosen up and we'd do better in the passing game as well.  Only by the time Dorsey realized "hey, running the ball is actually a thing, I should try doing every once in a while," we'd already be losing.  We'd have good, long, dominant drives where they couldn't stop us, but that would be to just get back into the game, and it would be a toss up whether we'd get enough points to win it or just make it close by the end of the game.  

     

    This year, I've got not problem running out of shotgun, mainly because our run blocking as a whole has gotten better, so the formation we run out doesn't matter as much.  The only time I have issues with run plays are when we try to do those wide, stretch or toss plays out of shotgun.  They only seem to go horizontally, and as the RB is starting about 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, that ends up being a big loss.  They're fairly boom or bust plays, with bust being MUCH more likely.  If you HAVE to run it wide out of shotgun, I'd MUCH prefer a jet sweep than a HB toss or whatnot.

    Roger Goodell said today's game was an experiment??

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Forgive my French, but I'm pissed.

     

    Holy ***** this is maddening.

     

    Forget how the NFL basically made the Bills and Jags basically play on concrete, resulting in multiple season ending injuries to our best players.

     

    Forget disrupting schedules and flying across a ridiculous number of time zones, making such injuries much more likely.

     

    Forget making the Bills give up a home game for that farce.

     

    Even forget the atrocious job the refs did, destroying any semblance of a fair and unbiased game by calling penalties on the Bills every single time something maybe, possibly, LOOKED like it could potentially be called a penalty, while practically waiting until a Jaguars player murdered someone on the field before calling one on them, all in the name of giving the Jags a "signature win" to expand their fanbase overseas in preparation for their inevitable move to London.

     

    Roger Goodell just straight up admitted that having the Jags play in London the previous week, then having them stay in London all week, while having the Bills fly in and play jetlagged was a way for the NFL to test just how much of an advantage that would be.

     

    They came right out and said, to paraphrase "we are knowingly ***** over the Bills this week, and in doing so, ending their season by injuring their best players so badly that they will be out for the rest of the season."

     

    This is rage-inducing.

     

    Link Below:

    https://x.com/haremherd/status/1711390018109923498?s=20

    • Angry 3

    Change in offense forthcoming due to Kincaid?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Up until now, we've mainly been running 3WR sets with Josh as a QB, throughout his career. However, after Beasely left, and McKenzie couldn't cut it, we don't really have a really good slot personnel, and this draft isn't that great for WRs. With the Kincaid pick, it seems like we're going to be lining up in a lot more 2 TE sets, even if one or both ends up getting split out wide. But with the suddenness and burst Kincaid has shown on tape, it seems like he could almost take over that slot receiver role as a TE, getting the high frequency, low yardage, high percentage catches that would more traditionally go to a slot receiver. And if that's the case, our offense starts looking a LOT more dangerous than last year. You've basically replaced McKenzie with someone with much better hands and a much better blocker, and who might actually get MORE targets. They'll likely be shallower targets, but Kincaid will still likely play a much larger role than McKenzie ever could have. 

     

    And that's basically just talking about his direct effect. Less directly, playing in a two TE set with Kincaid out there, he'd basically make defenses pull a DB off the field in exchange for a LB, giving Davis and Diggs more room to work with. If they don't pull that DB, it becomes a lot easier to run on teams, which will also open up play action passing more. 

     

    There are a lot of "experts" out there saying that we needed to draft other positions more, so they hated this pick, but drafting for need had always been how you end up drafting mediocre players that don't actually fill a hole and extend your losing ways. Always pick the best players available, and then scheme around them. There were no WRs or MLBs worth drafting at that point, we've shown we can't develop DLine talent, so pick the best player available, one of the best players in the entire draft, and start running some 2 TE sets with Knox and Kincaid. 

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    (Perhaps) Unpopular Take: I have no expectations for the Bills going forward, and I’m ok with it.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Now, if I were a more optimistic person, I'd say this is the part of the movie where the promising team with high hopes and aspirations have dealt with all the struggles and injuries and setbacks and blizzards and whatnot, you get to the point where you start to feel things are getting back on track, only to have the Damar Hamlin injury happen, and suddenly everything feels bleak, and you start to wonder if that was the one thing that finally broke them. But then Damar makes a miraculous recovery, enough to be on the sidelines for the first playoff game, everyone rallies around him, and with that added drive and motivation, they make it through the playoffs, reaching the Super Bowl, where the team is surprised to see Damar suit up, healthy and cleared to play, and he ends up making the game sealing interception to win the Super Bowl. 

     

    It would be a story worthy of Hollywood. 

     

    And considering the last two Super Bowl winners seemed to have a flare for the dramatic with Brady being traded then winning the SB, then Stafford being traded then winning the SB, it feels like reality should see the drama inherent to the above storyline and follow the script. 

     

    But unfortunately this is the real world.

     

    And we're just stuck hoping Damar will live, let alone be okay.

     

    And all the hopes and dreams we've been carrying for months (years, decades) now, they seem less bright and shiny now, and a lot more meaningless when put in comparison. 

     

    And my goal for the season has become a lot different:

     

    I just want to see everyone get through it alive and okay. 

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    What Bengals & Chiefs fans are saying about the situation:

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    It amazed me how different people from different fanbases are. I've been disgusted by Midwest fans for a while now, ever since I watched a Penn State vs Iowa game, and the Iowa fans would repeatedly start booing whenever Penn State players got injured. The kids aren't even making any money out there, but the Iowa fans are out there booing players for having the gall to get injured and briefly halt their viewing pleasure? Just because they're injured!? How dare they!? It didn't matter situation, offense or defense, big play or small, up tempo or no, boos would rain down as soon as someone wasn't able to get back to their feet immediately. Happened to watch a KC game the next day, and the exact same thing happened with KC fans booing any opposing player who got injured. It was sickening. 

     

    Can you imagine if this injury had happened in KC instead of Cincinnati? Instead of empathy, compassion, and understanding, we would have likely gotten, well, more of the same and more of the vitriol from the KC message board live and in person. 

    Confusion around J.D. McKissic

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Does anyone know what the latest news with J.D. McKissic is?  I'm seeing a lot of local stories saying that he's going to sign with the Bills, which I'm rather happy with.  We could use a good pass-catching RB.  However, NFL.com is saying that he's going to be resigning with the Commanders.  All of this just sounds like hearsay at this point.  Does anyone know what's going on?

    Chiefs Message Board- Hilarious!!!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    I gotta be honest, I lost all respect for midwesterners this weekend.

    First off was the Penn State vs Iowa game, a bunch of Penn State players got injured in that game, most never coming back into the game.  It didn't matter what the situation was, 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, etc., big play had just happened, modest gain just occurred, etc, the Iowa fans booed injured players.  These are seriously college kids out there, unpaid, playing for pride, their future, and your entertainment, and you have the complete utter lack of basic human decency and empathy to boo people who dare get injured and delay your gratification of watching them?  Seriously?  

     

    After seeing that yesterday, when Levi Wallace went down at the end of the third quarter after a modest gain, and KC fans started booing him, I got even more disgusted with people from that entire region.  Despite the fact that if he HADN'T been injured, the clock would have kept running, the quarter would have ended, and we would have had a stoppage of play anyways, but instead KC got another two plays in before the end of the half.  Regardless of the situation, if you boo someone who gets injured, you are human garbage, completely lacking in empathy, and not even seeing football players as human.  The worst of humanity was shown to be widespread throughout the Midwest this weekend.

     

    A lot of hope for humanity was lost this weekend.

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    Now that the KC game is over, which game scares you?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Now that we're sitting pretty at 4-1 after dominating the Chiefs, what is the game that scares you the most?  And you can't say the Bucs.  The Super Bowl Champs and Brady are the obvious choice.  Before the season, I would have said the Titans.  But they've been struggling a bit this season, despite the 3-2 record, and our run defense is doing a lot better than it was last year when we faced them.  So, assuming no huge, season-changing injuries occur, which game worries you the most?  Is there a game you think we might have a let down game and lose one we should win?  Is there a game you DON'T think we should win?  Let me know your thoughts.  

    Scouting The Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 1 2021)

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by Haplo848

    On 9/8/2021 at 9:36 AM, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

    Congrats everyone, we made it through another long offseason and the games that count are finally here. Figured I would continue this series of posts for a second season if you'll indulge me. Just a quick note that this post for our Week 1 opponent will be a bit different than the usual format given that we only have the preseason to go on so far and all the changes to both teams this past offseason through free agency and the draft. 

     

    To begin the 2021 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers are in town to face our Buffalo Bills in front of what is sure to be an incredible crowd and atmosphere (expecting some serious chills when I first hear that crowd noise on Sunday). I think the general consensus seems to be that these two teams are headed in opposite directions, but the Steelers still have some blue chip talent particularly in that defensive front seven and they are a veteran-laden team with winning/playoff experience. I have reviewed the game tape from our 2020 match up with Pittsburgh as well as the four Steelers 2021 preseason games in order to get a sense of the team we'll see on Sunday. Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Steelers' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

     

    ***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings  ***Not applicable yet***

     

     

    Recap of the Bills' 26-15 Win against the Pittsburgh Steelers At Home on December 14, 2020:

     

    - The first half was really tight and Pittsburgh looked like the better team early despite missing Joe Haden, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush, and a few others. It wasn't until Taron Johnson's pick-six at the very end of the first half that the tide started to turn. We led 9-7 at halftime.

    - The Steelers got a ton of pressure on Allen early and Cam Heyward terrorized our IOL in particular. However, the line adjusted and kept Allen clean in the second half. With more time, Allen and Diggs began to pick apart the Steelers secondary as the Bills scored 23 unanswered points. 

    - However, once we went up 23-7, we allowed Pittsburgh to drive straight down the field with chunk plays where they scored a TD and two point conversion in less than three minutes. One of the most frustrating drives our defense gave up all year. 

    - Dawson Knox had one of his better games (he did play well to end the season) and drew a critical pass interference penalty on a deep pass that gave the Bills a first-and-goal from the two yard line. We should have scored a TD, but settled for a still important FG and a two possession lead. 

    - Zack Moss had some huge carries in the fourth quarter that helped keep the chains and clock moving, running through and around defenders. A sign of what he could become if he stays healthy. 

     

    Key Takeaways from Pittsburgh's Four Preseason Games:

     

    August 6th- Hall of Fame Game Win against the Dallas Cowboys by a score of 16-3 in Canton, Ohio:

    - Chase Claypool, Najee Harris, and some of the younger expected starters played the first quarter in this game.

    - Like most NFL teams, the Steelers are in a lot of trouble if Big Ben goes down injured for any amount of time. Mason Rudolph looked shaky and dropped an early jet sweep handoff for a lost fumble. Dwayne Haskins looked sharp enough in his initial appearances, but looked completely hopeless in the loss to Carolina.

    - The early signs were good last season and Alex Highsmith (a guy I liked a lot for the Bills in the 2020 draft) looks like he could make Steelers fans forget all about Bud Dupree. Has great burst and generated a lot of pressure and at least one sack from his ROLB spot. 

    - Claypool and James Washington both had key third down drops that killed drives. Something to watch as Pittsburgh had one of the worst drop rates in the NFL in 2020.

    - Harris has the size to run through arm tackles and the speed to get to the edge as well, he looked impressive in limited action. 

    - Thought Dallas was able to use misdirection to take advantage of some over-aggressiveness by the Pitt defense really effectively. 

    - I'm sure that the coverages were on the vanilla side for preseason, but the Pittsburgh secondary did not impress. Plenty of blown coverages and wide open targets for Dallas. Their starters and depth in the DB room should concern fans.

    - Pittsburgh pulled away once the fourth stringers were in, but it was a low scoring defensive struggle when most roster-able players were involved. For example, it was 3-0 Cowboys with 11 minutes remaining in the third quarter and most stats favored Dallas overall.

     

    August 13th- Win on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 24-16:

    - Most starters played in this game with the exception of Big Ben and a couple others. 

    - Pittsburgh blitzed Jalen Hurts and Joe Flacco a ton, but they were generally able to escape pressure and find the open WR to move the chains. 

    - Anthony McFarland flashed a few times and has looked like a key back up to Harris in the preseason. However, he's landed on the IR so Jaylen Samuels/Kalen Ballage will have to pick up the slack whenever Harris needs a breather. Benny Snell has been dealing with an injury all preseason and didn't feature until the last preseason game.

    - Terrell Edmunds overran a short pass behind the LoS, then got walled off by a lineman, and Philly's rookie WR Quez Watkins made him pay with a 79 yard TD. Edmunds is known for some big hits and some timely takeaways, but he is one of a few weak links in that secondary especially if you can isolate him in coverage. 

    - Justin Layne (likely their 3rd CB on Sunday) positioned himself well and picked off Nick Mullens on a slight miscommunication between QB/WR on the route. 

    - Similar to the first game, Pittsburgh's opponent dominated the early parts of the game and the Steelers really only came back once the depth players were on the field. It was 13-0 Eagles with two minutes to go in the first half. The Pittsburgh third stringers then dominated the rest of the game in points, yards, and TOP.

     

    August 22nd- Win at Home against the Detroit Lions by a score of 26-20:

    - The starters including Roethlisberger got their longest run out in this game.

    - Eric Ebron had a crushing drop on third down after Ben made a great play eluding some pressure to get the ball across the field to him. 

    - Roethlisberger responded on the next drive by hitting Diontae Johnson on a 40 yard completion (the coverage was pretty terrible to be fair but the willingness to throw deep stood out). He then hit Pat Freiermuth later in the drive for the Steelers' first TD of the preseason involving their starters (they'd connect for a second TD over the top of an LB in coverage on the next drive as well). Arguments can be made about the value/draft capital they spent, but Harris and Freiermuth look like two solid building blocks for that offense. 

    - Harris made a catch on a short crossing pattern and then gave a great YAC effort, eluding two defenders and tiptoeing the sideline for 25+ extra yards. 

    - Melvin Ingram made no impression on me throughout his time on the field in any of these games. I thought he had more left in the tank, but I can't recall seeing him affect the QB even once. 

    - Opposite of the first two games, Pittsburgh dominated while their first and second string players were in and then took their foot off the gas (20-0 Steelers at halftime). 

     

    August 28th- Loss on the road against the Carolina Panthers by a score of 34-9:

    - Sam Darnold looked really effective against the Steelers (19/25 for 162 yards and 2 TDs) despite facing a lot of pressure now that he has actual NFL talent around him. He spread the ball around and led Carolina to a 17-0 lead at HT. A lot of their young players and recent draft picks impressed me, they're a couple years away in a tough division, but I like what they're trying to build at Two Bills Drive South. 

    - Derek Watt and old friend Ray-Ray McCloud dropped early passes with Watt's resulting in a tip drill INT for Carolina. 

    - Claypool can be an effective weapon on jet sweeps and reverses, something to look out for. 

    - Robert Spillane had his moment last season with all of their LB injuries, but he has looked slow to react vs the run and exposed in coverage as well. Would be trouble for Pittsburgh if he had to start for any length of time IMO.

     

     

    Sunday September 12th Preview- Week 1 Pittsburgh Steelers (current record: 0-0) At The Buffalo Bills (current record: 0-0):

     

    Bills On Offense- Pittsburgh's front seven is still the strength of this team. I expect them to get pressure on Allen and make running inside the tackles a difficult proposition. Devin Bush and Alex Highsmith are promising young players who I think could break out in 2021. However, there are questions going into Week 1 with TJ Watt's holdout (I expect him to play, but will his non-contact preseason have an effect on his fitness/performance?) and Stephon Tuitt's absence due to injury. Bud Dupree is gone replaced by Melvin Ingram. Cam Heyward is still one of the most underrated players in the entire league IMO and Tyson Alualu is an outstanding run defender, but they are 32 and 34 respectively. The Steelers run defense faltered down the stretch last year and I think we could see the Bills attack the edges (hopefully Breida is active and gets a few snaps to use his speed this week). Their obvious weakness on paper appears to be the secondary. Minkah Fitzpatrick is a ballhawk, but I thought he benefitted from turnover luck last season and we neutralized him in last year's matchup. Joe Haden is back (although he's 32 and reportedly unhappy about his contract) and he's a solid CB1, but I don't believe he can hang with Stefon Diggs. Then right down the line, the Bills should have the matchups to exploit with Sanders, Beasley, and Davis against Terrell Edmunds, Cam Sutton, and Justin Layne who are average to below average players in coverage. If the offensive line can give Josh time to throw, there are a lot of chunk plays and points to be had. 

     

    Bills On Defense- Big Ben is getting up there in age (39) and hits taken as he enters his 18th season. Pittsburgh has a new offensive coordinator and scheme although Matt Canada's scheme replicates a lot of what the Steelers did in 2020 with plenty of pre-snap motion (noticeable in their preseason games) and quick passing. Last year, it appeared Ben's arm strength declined and he was less mobile/less willing to stand in the pocket, throwing shorter passes and getting the ball out in an average of 2.17 seconds (by far the fastest in the NFL). His overall stats in 2020 look good on paper, but he recorded his second-lowest passer rating against the Bills. Roethlisberger also did not perform well under pressure (another factor in their quick passing strategy I'm sure) and that's bad news because the Pittsburgh offensive line (which used to be the gold standard of the AFC not too long ago) has lost David DeCastro, Alejandro Villenueva, and Maurkice Pouncey and replaced them with inexperienced (two rookies in Kendrick Green and Dan Moore) and replacement-level (Trai Turner and Chuks Okorafor) options. PFF rankings aren't the most logical or consistent all the time, but they ranked the Steelers O-line 31st which matches the eye test in my view.

     

    Najee Harris, on the other hand, looks like he could be the real deal. He's a powerful runner and an impressive receiving back who will be the focal point of this offense. Harris does an outstanding job after contact and seems to always fall forward for the extra yard. Whether he was worth the first round capital it took to get him or not while they had so many other needs is another story. The Pittsburgh WR room is deep and versatile, but lacks a true #1 guy and really struggled with drops last year. Chase Claypool is a big play threat with a lot of YAC ability. Diontae Johnson is an underrated player who makes that offense tick. That's before we even get to JuJu Smith-Schuster (of Crate Challenge fame) and James Washington who can play above the rim and are both capable of big games in their own right. Combined with co-starters Eric Ebron and second round pick Pat Freiermuth, that's a versatile arsenal of receiving weapons. However, I think our usually strong pass defense matches up well with their skill players and Pittsburgh lacks the elite speed which has hurt us in the past (see KC). The Steelers should be a better running team this year and lean on that more so I think the Bills defense needs to drop Poyer or Hyde into the box on most plays to help vs the run and then look to jump shorter routes that present day Big Ben loves. Finally, I'm watching and hoping for this 2021 Bills defense to reverse a worrying trend of poor tackling and for them to disrupt passing lanes even if they can't get to the QB. 

     

    On Special Teams- McCloud handles most of the returning for Pittsburgh and actually cleaned up his ball security issues to a large degree last season. The Steelers like him a lot and extended his contract this offseason. The kicking game is in steady enough hands with Boswell although he missed his final XP and they have a new rookie punter Pressley Harvin III who performed well in preseason. 

     

    Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. The Steelers are a well-coached veteran team with some exciting players, but the NFL is a matchup league and I think the Bills are perfectly built to take advantage of Pittsburgh's weaknesses at offensive line and defensive back. The Bills are also relatively healthy (a few bumps and bruises, but Marquez Stevenson is the only player that doesn't have a chance to play on Sunday) while Pittsburgh has suffered some key losses on both lines already in Stephon Tuitt and Zach Banner. The Highmark (not sold on this?) will be rocking and the Bills have to be confident that they can be even better than last year's team and move to 3-0 over Pittsburgh since Sean McDermott took over. 

     

    Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!

     

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    Great thread, and thanks for doing this!

     

    With regards to my highlights in your OP, it's hard to be a worse running team then they ended up being last year.  But my question is, exactly how much do we have to worry about that?  You mentioned yourself that their offensive line was, well, offensive.  Even if Harris is as good as advertised, it's still difficult to do anything if defenders are in your face before you even receive the handoff.  Just ask Singletary and Moss.  

     

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    The AFCE vs. the Bills in 2021 - Poll - Who has become better or worse vs. the Bills

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    Personally, compared to last year, the Bills are probably going to be better, but so are most of the other three teams.  I say most, because personally, I think the Jets will take a step back.  They're going from a 4-year starter to a rookie QB.  There's going to be some growing pains.  The jets have less of a chance to beat the the Bills than they did this year. 

     

    The Pats brought in some free agent talent, but a lot of that depends on Cam Newton throwing them the ball (I don't think Mac Jones will start this year, or at least at the beginning of the year), and Cam showed that throwing isn't really his strong suit.  The problem is that they will be getting back some defensive talent from the opt-out list.  That could give us some problems.  All in all, their chances of beating us are probably about the same as last year.

     

    The Dolphins have been stacking talent through the draft.  They probably have a better chance of beating us than last year, but last year, we played our starters for only half a game, the Dolphins were playing for their season, and they still got destroyed by ~30 points.  Their chances of beating us will be better than last year, but I don't think they WILL beat us.  However, as all these high draft picks develop, they could give us fits in the future.

    Key to beating the Ravens- beating the blitz

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MPL said:

    The Browns put up 42 on this defense in week 14. Jarvis Landry had a huge day and Baker made a ton of throws off schedule and out of the pocket. I think there's reason to believe that Josh and our WR corp can have success. 

    Of course, the Ravens put up 45 in this game, even with Lamar taking a 10 minute bathroom break. I think our D is better than Cleveland's but who knows. This game could be wild. 

     

    This doesn't really show what that game was truly like.  The Ravens had only 2 CBs left, and all their starters were injured, so they were running out backup safeties to play corner.  It was a mess.  Unfortunately, the Ravens have gotten healthy since that game, so it's not going to be as easy to move the ball on them as it was for the Browns that night.

    Check out this collison by Zack Moss.

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

    I'm very skeptical of these sorts of college highlight reels. I recall when we traded the farm for Sammy Watkins, there was a lot of buzz about how he would rack up the YAC. There were some highlights where he just plowed over defenders, sending them ass over elbows. The problem is: blown tackles like this just don't happen in the NFL. There isn't a third-string linebacker active in the regular season who will get blown up like that. The vast majority of NFL linebackers are going to make that tackle, and if Moss is going to make it a habit of running straight at linebackers, he's going to get stuffed. Often.

     

    Only that's not a LB.  That's a safety.  And safeties DO get run over.  And when LBs don't get their feet set, they get run over, too.  Worst case scenario here is that an NFL LB drags him down after a good game, and the LB gets worn out, making it harder for him to bring Singletary down.

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