Haplo848
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Posts posted by Haplo848
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So some of the things that I always look for in a schedule are:
- Are there any international games?I'd honestly rather forfeit them than have our players go overseas and play on subpar fields where all our stars get injured for great lengths of time, like Milano and Daquan Jones in England a couple years back. Not to mention the long travel, sleep issues, and oftentimes losing a home game to the international game. Screw those games. I'm glad we don't have any this year.
- Are there back-to-back away games? Or even worse?I've been told that the travel can really take a toll on players when you get 2 or 3 games in a row that are all away. So I look for games like this. This year, we have two pairs of back-to-back games. That's not very favorable, in my opinion. Especially when you consider KC who, despite all their traveling to the AFC South and NFC East, don't actually have ANY back-to-back away games. I find that to be complete BS, and favoring KC. They DO have two away games in a row, but there is a bye between when they play us, and when they play the Broncos, week 9-11
- Do the Dolphins have many heat stroke games?Not really. They have the Patriots at home at 1 pm Week 2, and the Chargers (who are used to the heat) Week 6, but until we play them on 11/09 at 1 pm in Week 10, all of their other games are either away or at night. That means that they won't be able to use their stadium's unfair advantage THAT much this year, like last year. Two years ago, when they had a BUNCH of heat stroke games, they had a good record, but most of them came in the beginning of the season. Last year, they didn't, and finished below 0.500. I expect the same thing from them this year.
- Lastly, (and this requires a bit more digging into the schedule) what teams have extra rest coming into games with us, and which games do we have extra rest? And are they important games?This is where we REALLY get screwed this year. Just like we ALWAYS seem to get screwed. The games this year are:
Falcons have a bye before they play us on Monday night (+7 days rest)
Dolphins play on TNF before we play in Miami, AND it's right after the Chiefs game (+3 days rest)
Bengals play on TNF before we play them (+3 days rest)
Patriots have a bye before we play them in NE (+7 days rest)
Eagles play on Friday before our matchup (+2 days rest)
The advantages we get:TNF before playing the Saints (+3 days rest)
Bye before playing the Panthers (+7 days rest)
Chiefs are on MNF the week before we play them (+1 days rest)
TNF before we play the Steelers (+3 days rest)
That's a full week of net extra rest other teams have coming into games than the Bills do this season. Not only that, four of the five games in which the opponents get more rest are games which I would consider to be huge games (Dolphins, Bengals, Patriots, Eagles - two divisional rivals, a playoff contender, and the Super Bowl Champs). We only have 1-2 big games (Chiefs, Steelers) in which we have the same advantage, and one of those is only an extra day of rest against the Chiefs. The other is against the Steelers, and I'm not sure how big of a game that will be. They seem destined to be mediocre year after year recently. You're not going to convince me that the Falcons, Saints, or Panthers, non-conference games against mediocre at best competition, are huge games for us.
So overall, I'm rather unhappy about this schedule. I appreciate the no overseas games and the Dolphins not getting too many unfair advantages by attempting to kill their opponents with climate change. But beyond that, I'm not seeing TOO MUCH to be happy about. Just like every year, the NFL screws us over with net rest, and I can't remember when the Bills last had a season without back-to-back away games.-
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My guess at this point is undrafted.
He's going to want to come in somewhere to start, and I don't think any team thinks he's capable of doing that.
Deion made sure he was hyper trained, which makes people think he has a high floor, but he doesn't have the physical traits other than toughness to actually perform up to expectations at the NFL level. And because he IS hyper trained, there's not a whole lot of room for improvement.
He'd be a game manager, at best, kind of like a less athletic Alex Smith.
At the very least, I expect Shilo to be drafted before Shedeur.
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Is this ref crew known for not calling many penalties, or are they just horrible and refusing to call nearly any penalties on the Lions? I'm leaning towards the latter, even if the former is normally true. Because they're not calling P.I., unnecessary roughness penalties, etc. That goalline false start penalty on Dawkins is literally what the Chiefs OT gets away with every single play, while the Lions jumped Offside on that same play. These refs have been horrible.
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Anyone else see that very obvious holding/hands to the face that wasn't called on that long pass play?
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Just joined the thread, so don't know if anyone else posted this, but has anyone else noticed that when the Bills have the ball, the refs consistently spot the ball A FULL YARD SHORT of where it should be spotted!?
On a Josh scramble, he slid with the ball in his right hand right at the 40, running horizontally to the left, they mark it at the 39. On the 3rd down before we turned it over on downs, we get talked 2 yards short of the first, they mark it 3 yards short.
It's not just bad spotting, it's absolutely horrendous. I haven't noticed it happen to the Chiefs, yet.
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Watching that first drive of the Bills game, and remembering past games, like against Dak and the Cowboys, I can't help but feel like when the opposing QB scrambles, he's got three choices. Go down early, making it clear he's sliding, go out of bounds, or he should be absolutely lit up every single time. Make him pay for running.
Now, you might say, "We can't do that, we'll get flagged." My response is "How is that any different from what happens already?" We always get flagged because the opposing QB always slides way too late, after the defender has always launched. A lot of QBs will try to squeeze out every single yard they can, then draw a 15 yard penalty on top of it. Sometimes, the QB isn't even down yet before they're hit. Even when the defender does what the NFL wants, and goes over the top of them, like today, we're still flagged. So if we're going to be flagged no matter what, make sure the hits count. Make sure the opposing QB feels it. Make the QB learn that you better get down early, or you're going to get blown up.
The NFL has gone so far in trying to protect the QB, that's its literally become the better option for defenders to hit QBs as hard as they can, because they will get flagged anyways.
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20 hours ago, Lost said:
Roster cuts coming on Tuesday and I'm curious how everyone else is feeling about some of these players who may or may not be on the bubble to get released.
I see Andreessen making it, due to injuries at LB and how well he's played. He'll be depth and ST.Zach Davidson I don't see making it, just due to numbers, and the fact that he isn't much of a blocker at all. I see them trying to stuff him on the practice squad, help him learn some blocking, and eventually elevate him.
Ja'marcus Ingram has been playing well, but it will be difficult for him to make the team. I hope we keep him on the PS, but I don't see him making it as depth, simply because we have Rasul Douglas, Elam, Benford, Taron Johnson, and Hardy making the team. He'd have to make it as the 6th CB.
Javon Solomon has been good, and I don't see them believing they can try and hide him on the PS. Epenesa, Rousseau, Miller, and likely Smoot will be the top 4 DE's, but Miller is on a pitch count, so there will be a 5th, and the other DE's haven't outplayed him IMO, AND he's a draft pick. He'll be depth on the line.
Tylan Grable won't make it. There's just to much ahead of him. He's another hopeful PS. They'll likely carry the top 5 OL, a swing tackle, and an inside OL sub. There's an outside chance he makes it as a swing tackle, but I kinda doubt it.
I'm going to combine MVS, Tyrell Shavers, and K.J. Hamler here. I'm going to guess that the latter two get pushed by MVS, I'd honestly prefer either of them over MVS. Tyrell Shavers, in my opinion, is a better big target than MVS is. MVS just drops the ball too much. K.J. Hamler showed how versatile he was today, returning kicks, running screens, lining up in the backfield, etc. He doesn't do anything GREAT, but he can do a LOT at a decent to good playstyle.
Gable Stevenson likely won't make it. Just too many people competing for too few spots, and he's likely too raw. I see the Bills trying to stash him on PS if possible.-
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I'm rather amused at all the people who think Keon Coleman is slow. Dude plays at speed. He had the fastest speed of anyone during the gauntlet drill in the past 2 years at the combine, which reflects actual play speed much more than the 40 does. He was even faster than Puka Nacua last year.
Did anyone actually go and watch his 40? Dude's simply not a track star. He started slow because coming out of his stance, he popped up instead of bursting forward. If he had spent more time on the track with someone who knew what they were doing, and could help him with a better start out of his stance, spending time fixing an issue that in no way actually relates to football, he likely would have shaved AT LEAST 0.1 seconds off, likely more. And no one would be talking about him being slow. But they look at that number, decide he's slow, and ignore everything else, especially his play speed.
He LOOKS slow when he's running because his legs don't seem to be moving as fast as you're used to, but when he's trying to outrun people, his stride lengthens, and with his long legs, every one of his strides eats up distance, and he covers ground at a surprising rate.
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6 hours ago, PayDaBill$ said:
A lot of other factors come into play, running 40 yds in a straight line isn’t quite the same with gear on, running routes and tracking the ball. It’s just another athleticism metric.
from a nbcsprts.com article in March.“Timing of players at the Scouting Combine isn’t just done with stopwatches. It’s also done with chips worn by every player, that tracking their speed during every drill. And last year, that player tracking data showed off the talents of Puka Nacua, a relatively unknown receiver out of BYU who went from fifth-round pick of the Rams to the most productive rookie receiver in NFL history.
Nacua wasn’t great in the traditional tests of athleticism that the NFL has relied on for decades, recording a 4.57-second 40-yard dash. But the player tracking data showed he was the fastest receiver at last year’s Combine in running through the gauntlet drill, in which a receiver runs across the field and catches seven passes in rapid succession. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Nacua reached the fastest speed of any wide receiver during last year’s gauntlet drill at 20.06 mph. That tipped teams off that Nacua plays faster than he runs, something that Nacua proved in his rookie year.
This year, Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman was similar to Nacua: Coleman ran a disappointing 40 time of 4.61 seconds, but he reached the fastest speed in the gauntlet drill, topping out at 20.36 mph — even faster than Nacua last year. Coleman also reached the second-fastest speed of any wide receiver in his group while running a go route, reaching 21.71 mph.
The player tracking data is new, and there’s not a long history of being able to study how well it correlates to NFL success. But it may prove that players who show elite speed during the on-field drills that more closely approximate what they do on a football field prove to be better players than the ones who run the fastest in a straight line for 40 yards.
In hindsight, teams wish they had paid more attention to Nacua’s player tracking data than to his stopwatch time. Coleman will hope teams remember that during this year’s draft.”
He’s not SLOW …. He has athleticism & speed in the context of the game.This.
This is it exactly.
Besides that, did anyone actually go and watch his 40? Dude's simply not a track star. He started slow because coming out of his stance, he popped up instead of bursting forward. If he had spent more time on the track with someone who knew what they were doing, and could help him with a better start out of his stance, he likely would have shaved AT LEAST 0.1 seconds off, likely more. And no one would be talking about him being slow. But they look at that number, decide he's slow, and ignore everything else, especially his play speed.
He LOOKS slow when he's running because his legs don't seem to be moving as fast as you're used to, but when he's trying to outrun people, his stride lengthens, and with his long legs, every one of his strides eats up distance, and he covers ground at a surprising rate.
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The refs aren't even making a show of looking for penalties on the Eagles. There was a BLATANT block in the back in the middle of the field on that point return. Was it called? Hell no.
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Refs need to put away the black and put on their green uniforms
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And yet another obvious penalty ignored on the Eagles with the horse collar, and a completely blown intentional grounding call because Gabe Davis WAS in the area. These refs are a joke
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I am absolutely sick of the biased reffing in the NFL. The last two offensive plays were incredibly obvious penalties against the Eagles, a hit to the helmet against a defenseless receiver and pass interference. Neither got called. Any time the Bills get a lead, the refs have to rubber band the opposition, try and get them back in the game. If it was the Chiefs, both would have absolutely been called.
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22 hours ago, HoofHearted said:
THE TRUTH ABOUT THE BILLS RUN GAME
There's a lot of misconception about the Bills run game this season, most notable is the notion that the Bills are not successful running from the gun, that the Bills Zone Scheme run game is horrendous, and that the Bills should never run from gun in short yardage situations. I took the time to break down every run concept from Week 1 through Week 10 in order to take a deep dive and flesh out what's real and what's just national media and message board noise.
Through the first 10 weeks of the season it appears as though we hang our hat on 5 different run concepts. Three of those concepts being Zone blocking schemes (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, and Duo), one being a Gap blocking scheme (Dart), and one being Man blocking scheme (ISO). We've run each of these concepts at least 20 times on the season. In total we've run 21 different run concepts - 8 Zone (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, Duo, Sprint Draw, Split Zone, Zone Read, Q Draw, and Outside Zone), 9 Gap (Dart, Counter, Pin & Pull, Buck, Long Trap, Power, Q Dart, Q Counter, and Trap), and 2 Man (Iso and Base). All of our top 5 concepts except ISO average over 4 yards per carry but, more importantly, all of our top 5 run concepts have a Success Rate above 65%.
Success Rate (SR) is a measure which adds context to our rushing data, something yards per carry does not. We define success rate as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% of yards required on 3rd and 4th down. Dart, which also has the highest yards per carry average of 6.83 yards per carry also has the highest SR at 75.9%. This is clearly our most successful run concept. Dart has been primarily run out of Gun (27/29 attempts), and when run out of gun averages 7.07 yards per carry while only averaging 3.5 yards per carry while run from under center. Similarly, Inside Zone (our second most successful play at 66.7% SR and 4.48 ypc) has an 81% SR when run from Gun as opposed to 45.5% when under center.
The Bills are Not Successful Running from Gun
Overall, this season we've run 83 times from under center for an average of 5.06 yards per carry and a SR of 54.2% and 123 times from gun for an average of 4.5 yards per carry and a SR of 61.0%. So we are more successful when running from the gun than we are running from under center. When you look at the splits the only time we've been more successful running from under center than gun has been on 2nd and medium (4-7).
The Bills Zone Scheme Run Game is Not Good
Overall, Zone and Gap have the exact same SR (57.4%). Man schemes have the highest SR at 66.7% which is to be expected because it's run most in short yardage situations where the yardage to gain is easier to attain. Specifically our Inside Zone and Duo concepts, which were ripped in some video that made its rounds around here a few days ago, are both averaging about 4.5 yards per carry or better and a SR of over 60%. The notion that these two schemes have been detrimental to our run game are just false.
The Bills Should Never Run from the Gun in Short Yardage Situations
In Down and 0-3 yards to go situations the Bills have run from under center 18 times for 4.89 yards per carry and a 66.7% SR while running from gun 30 times for a 5.03 yards per carry average and an 80% SR. Specifically looking at 3rd down situations the numbers still favor running from gun though the samples are admittedly small from under center (Under Center: 3 for 2.67 and 66.7% SR | Gun: 15 for 2.87 and 80% SR).
Overall Thoughts
It's clear to me from watching the film and going through the data that we have been successful running both out of gun and under center this year. All these rumors being spread by national media and message board members that we should not be in gun or should not be running zone schemes are just rumors. Obviously, scheme is very dependent on what you will see from your opponent, but the data shows that the Bills are establishing a clear identity as to what they want to do in the run game and where they think their strengths lie as a team. What was frustrating was going back and seeing how many times drive stalled out because we refused to run the football even after statistically successful run attempts. This has been one of the biggest components in why our offense has struggled over the last however many weeks.
Is running from gun a bad thing still talked about this year? I understand it in the previous years, because our run game was pretty bad, but especially out of the gun in previous years, but this year, I've been incredibly frustrated by the lack of run plays called. Before the Jets game, while we were in our 6(?) week slump, it seemed like we'd go nowhere when hyper focused on just passing the ball, but when we'd have drives where we were balanced and ran the ball, good things would happen. The only problem was, Dorsey kept refusing to call run plays. It seemed like we'd drop back and pass it three times, but they'd be waiting for it all three times, and we'd go three and out. However, when we sprinkled in the run, they wouldn't be expecting it as much, and so we got some good yards on the ground. So they'd be forced to respect the run, at which point the coverage would loosen up and we'd do better in the passing game as well. Only by the time Dorsey realized "hey, running the ball is actually a thing, I should try doing every once in a while," we'd already be losing. We'd have good, long, dominant drives where they couldn't stop us, but that would be to just get back into the game, and it would be a toss up whether we'd get enough points to win it or just make it close by the end of the game.
This year, I've got not problem running out of shotgun, mainly because our run blocking as a whole has gotten better, so the formation we run out doesn't matter as much. The only time I have issues with run plays are when we try to do those wide, stretch or toss plays out of shotgun. They only seem to go horizontally, and as the RB is starting about 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, that ends up being a big loss. They're fairly boom or bust plays, with bust being MUCH more likely. If you HAVE to run it wide out of shotgun, I'd MUCH prefer a jet sweep than a HB toss or whatnot.
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Forgive my French, but I'm pissed.
Holy ***** this is maddening.
Forget how the NFL basically made the Bills and Jags basically play on concrete, resulting in multiple season ending injuries to our best players.
Forget disrupting schedules and flying across a ridiculous number of time zones, making such injuries much more likely.
Forget making the Bills give up a home game for that farce.
Even forget the atrocious job the refs did, destroying any semblance of a fair and unbiased game by calling penalties on the Bills every single time something maybe, possibly, LOOKED like it could potentially be called a penalty, while practically waiting until a Jaguars player murdered someone on the field before calling one on them, all in the name of giving the Jags a "signature win" to expand their fanbase overseas in preparation for their inevitable move to London.
Roger Goodell just straight up admitted that having the Jags play in London the previous week, then having them stay in London all week, while having the Bills fly in and play jetlagged was a way for the NFL to test just how much of an advantage that would be.
They came right out and said, to paraphrase "we are knowingly ***** over the Bills this week, and in doing so, ending their season by injuring their best players so badly that they will be out for the rest of the season."
This is rage-inducing.
Link Below:
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The NFL is DEFINITELY determined to help the Jags get fans in Europe before they move to London. This sh*t is unwatchable for anyone other than the biggest Jags homer
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Up until now, we've mainly been running 3WR sets with Josh as a QB, throughout his career. However, after Beasely left, and McKenzie couldn't cut it, we don't really have a really good slot personnel, and this draft isn't that great for WRs. With the Kincaid pick, it seems like we're going to be lining up in a lot more 2 TE sets, even if one or both ends up getting split out wide. But with the suddenness and burst Kincaid has shown on tape, it seems like he could almost take over that slot receiver role as a TE, getting the high frequency, low yardage, high percentage catches that would more traditionally go to a slot receiver. And if that's the case, our offense starts looking a LOT more dangerous than last year. You've basically replaced McKenzie with someone with much better hands and a much better blocker, and who might actually get MORE targets. They'll likely be shallower targets, but Kincaid will still likely play a much larger role than McKenzie ever could have.
And that's basically just talking about his direct effect. Less directly, playing in a two TE set with Kincaid out there, he'd basically make defenses pull a DB off the field in exchange for a LB, giving Davis and Diggs more room to work with. If they don't pull that DB, it becomes a lot easier to run on teams, which will also open up play action passing more.
There are a lot of "experts" out there saying that we needed to draft other positions more, so they hated this pick, but drafting for need had always been how you end up drafting mediocre players that don't actually fill a hole and extend your losing ways. Always pick the best players available, and then scheme around them. There were no WRs or MLBs worth drafting at that point, we've shown we can't develop DLine talent, so pick the best player available, one of the best players in the entire draft, and start running some 2 TE sets with Knox and Kincaid.
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Now, if I were a more optimistic person, I'd say this is the part of the movie where the promising team with high hopes and aspirations have dealt with all the struggles and injuries and setbacks and blizzards and whatnot, you get to the point where you start to feel things are getting back on track, only to have the Damar Hamlin injury happen, and suddenly everything feels bleak, and you start to wonder if that was the one thing that finally broke them. But then Damar makes a miraculous recovery, enough to be on the sidelines for the first playoff game, everyone rallies around him, and with that added drive and motivation, they make it through the playoffs, reaching the Super Bowl, where the team is surprised to see Damar suit up, healthy and cleared to play, and he ends up making the game sealing interception to win the Super Bowl.
It would be a story worthy of Hollywood.
And considering the last two Super Bowl winners seemed to have a flare for the dramatic with Brady being traded then winning the SB, then Stafford being traded then winning the SB, it feels like reality should see the drama inherent to the above storyline and follow the script.
But unfortunately this is the real world.
And we're just stuck hoping Damar will live, let alone be okay.
And all the hopes and dreams we've been carrying for months (years, decades) now, they seem less bright and shiny now, and a lot more meaningless when put in comparison.
And my goal for the season has become a lot different:
I just want to see everyone get through it alive and okay.
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It amazed me how different people from different fanbases are. I've been disgusted by Midwest fans for a while now, ever since I watched a Penn State vs Iowa game, and the Iowa fans would repeatedly start booing whenever Penn State players got injured. The kids aren't even making any money out there, but the Iowa fans are out there booing players for having the gall to get injured and briefly halt their viewing pleasure? Just because they're injured!? How dare they!? It didn't matter situation, offense or defense, big play or small, up tempo or no, boos would rain down as soon as someone wasn't able to get back to their feet immediately. Happened to watch a KC game the next day, and the exact same thing happened with KC fans booing any opposing player who got injured. It was sickening.
Can you imagine if this injury had happened in KC instead of Cincinnati? Instead of empathy, compassion, and understanding, we would have likely gotten, well, more of the same and more of the vitriol from the KC message board live and in person.
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1 hour ago, TFBillsfan said:
Thanks for posting this! It's good to see him up and around, even if it's only stretching. He's looking a bit stiff, but that's definitely a LOT better than where i thought he would be at this point after Monday night. Here's to hoping he can get fully healthy soon!
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I find it interesting that Rosseau is being double takes more often than Von Miller. And A.J. Epenesa is really high up there.
Are those the only 3 Bills, or did I miss one?
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Does anyone know what the latest news with J.D. McKissic is? I'm seeing a lot of local stories saying that he's going to sign with the Bills, which I'm rather happy with. We could use a good pass-catching RB. However, NFL.com is saying that he's going to be resigning with the Commanders. All of this just sounds like hearsay at this point. Does anyone know what's going on?
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I gotta be honest, I lost all respect for midwesterners this weekend.
First off was the Penn State vs Iowa game, a bunch of Penn State players got injured in that game, most never coming back into the game. It didn't matter what the situation was, 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, etc., big play had just happened, modest gain just occurred, etc, the Iowa fans booed injured players. These are seriously college kids out there, unpaid, playing for pride, their future, and your entertainment, and you have the complete utter lack of basic human decency and empathy to boo people who dare get injured and delay your gratification of watching them? Seriously?After seeing that yesterday, when Levi Wallace went down at the end of the third quarter after a modest gain, and KC fans started booing him, I got even more disgusted with people from that entire region. Despite the fact that if he HADN'T been injured, the clock would have kept running, the quarter would have ended, and we would have had a stoppage of play anyways, but instead KC got another two plays in before the end of the half. Regardless of the situation, if you boo someone who gets injured, you are human garbage, completely lacking in empathy, and not even seeing football players as human. The worst of humanity was shown to be widespread throughout the Midwest this weekend.
A lot of hope for humanity was lost this weekend.
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1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
How are the Bucs not on this list?
I purposefully left them off, because that's the obvious choice. How could Brady and the defending Super Bowl champions NOT be the obvious answer?
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Analyzing the 2025 Bills Schedule
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Just did the net rest calculation for the Chiefs. Any weeks where the two teams have the same amount of rest, even if it's different from the normal 7 days of rest, aren't listed. The explanation of why there is a net rest difference due to the previous week is in parentheses:
-1 rest days against the Eagles (Eagles play on Thursday, Chiefs Friday)
+1 rest days against the Ravens (Ravens play on MNF)
-1 rest days against the Lions (Chiefs play on MNF)
-1 rest days against the Bills (Chiefs play on MNF)
+4 rest days against the Broncos (Chiefs on bye, Broncos play on TNF)
-7 rest days against the Colts (Colts on bye)
+3 rest days against the Texans (Chiefs play on TNF)
+1 rest days against the Chargers (Chargers play on MNF)
+? rest days against the Raiders (Chiefs play on Christmas on TNF, Raiders game not scheduled yet, but either Saturday or Sunday, so either +2 or +3)
If you total that all up, that's a net +1 or +2 over the course of the season. They come into each week on average MORE rested than their opponent, while the Bills come in LESS rested, with a net rest of -7.
Additionally, the Chiefs are really only truly hurt once, against the Colts, who are a non-divisional conference opponent. It's worse than a non-conference opponent, but they're also not really a threat for the #1 seed at this point. The three other times, their opponents only have one extra day of rest than they do since their previous game, but they're against tough opponents, the Eagles, Lions, and Bills. However, they get advantages against the Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Chargers, and Raiders. Two divisional winners, and once each against their divisional rivals.
Can't help but think that the NFL is doing it's best to help out the Chiefs...