Ronin
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Posts posted by Ronin
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2 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:
How do you feel about Josh Allen?
ROFLMAO
Come on now ... everyone reading this is cringing upon your asking.
To summarize, I wouldn't have drafted him, waaay too risky.
And again, it comes down to strategies. Last season we had 6 day 1 & 2 picks that were turned into three players, two of which we could have had with two picks, meaning that the net on that draft was four picks for Allen. I've already stated that my methodology would have been different than the team's.
I'd have drafted Edmunds at 12th, Wynn at 22nd. I was fine with Phillips, whom I think will be better than Oliver to whatever extent that may be for either of them, but I'd have gone with more of a pass-rusher probably a little bit earlier in the draft.
This year I'd have taken Hilliard first, then Risner. At that point we'd have had a young OL but a promising one with Dawkins, Hilliard, Risner, and Wynn.
I'd have then taken Lock this year.
I'm simply not seeing much progress, nowhere near what most people are claiming for this team. The rankings of the offenses are worse than they've been since the Jauron days and other for a deceptively high ranking in yardage D our D hasn't improved over recent years either. Our Red Zone D and game metrics are among the worst in the league.
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21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
You're talking about a game during which Texas Tech ran over 100 plays on offense, many of which were explicitly designed to take Oliver's pass rush out of the equation. It didn't work well early, but around play 90 you could see that Oliver was gassed.
Playing nearly 600 snaps 0-tech at 285 lbs over the course of a season and getting doubled nearly 50% of the time, while playing alongside few other draftable defensive pieces, can do that to a guy.
LOL
So one-on-one was designed to take Oliver out of the pass-rush? OK, well it worked. I hope he performs better than that here.
As one. There are other games too but clearly you'll make excuses for them as well.
BTW, would also love to read your takes on Spiller and Watkins. I know those were favorable because there was no one, and I mean absolutely NO ONE that agreed with my takes.
So say what you want and choose, but works for me.
Seems to me my accuracy with those however is pretty dam lucky given how stupid, ignorant, and uninformed I am. Perhaps I'll change my avatar to "Ignoramus." Seriously, I like that. I'll have to wait, I just changed it, I thought I read that it'll be 6 months before I can change it again.
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36 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:
Just wondering why you didn't acknowledge @Alphadawg7
He's on my ignore list for posting nonsense too many times. I don't have the time or inclination to deal with nonsense.
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27 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
Nope, you clearly don't get the point.
You posted a link to someone saying "he's clearly not Aaron Donald" because he got beat up against double-teams etc. My response to you was that I had a problem with anyone comparing Donald as an NFL player to Oliver as a college player. That comparison is stupid, because we now have 5 seasons of NFL body-of-work on which to judge Donald. If someone is going to make that comparison, they should be doing so based upon Donald's college tape, but that would've contradicted what the Walter scout was saying.
Instead of reading that, digesting it, and acknowledging it, you decided to obfuscate. Why I'll never know.
Yeah, I do. You missed the point of whatever it is that I posted. Or perhaps I didn't clarify appropriately.
Again, I'm not the one comparing Oliver to Donald, everyone here is. Oliver can only be compared as a collegiate player, there's no body of work otherwise. The references to Donald are to him as a pro. The intention of these posters is clear, Donald too was a small-school DT for one. That's irrelevant. If it were relevant then the strategy to draft a QB would be to go for them in the 6th round because that's where the GOAT was drafted. Horrible form.
Again, I have a horrible timme with anyone comparing Donald as an NFL player to Oliver also.
That's my entire point. My comments were to those comparing Oliver, as a college player since that's all we have, to Donald, as a pro for x-number of seasons.
We're fully in agreement, but I'm not the one comparing the two. In fact, as you admit, I said that Oliver wasn't Donald. I suppose that's an indirect comparison but as such not what we're talking about here.
BTW, it's also remiss to take players that were exceptions to expectations, and use those exceptions to project their NFL capability when there are far more examples of the contrary. In this particular case any comparisons should end immediately given that Donald played at Pitt, a power-5 school, against individual opponents many of which were drafted and are still in the NFL.
And hey, Oliver may be as good as Donald, Sapp, or any other DT that ever played in the NFL. I'm simply giving you my assessment. It's clear that few put any credence in it. I did the same for Spiller, Watkins, McCargo (since we're talking DTs), and more recently Zay Jones, everyone's take on my takes was pretty much exactly the same for them and more. I'm fully good with it, truly.
8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:You have no clue.
If you bothered to spend a quarter of a second looking into it, you'd see that implying that I'm relying on anyone else's evaluation outs you as ignorant. I've spent years on this board writing up profiles on players and doing hundreds of draft work-ups every year.
You want me to polish your apples because you had Zay Jones as a mid-round pick? Be proud of that, that's really incredible work. Ground-breaking stuff.
It would do you some good in terms of credibility to pay attention to who you accuse of regurgitating rankings. If you don't know, ask a friend.
OK, thanks.
Point me to your write-up of Zay Jones.
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22 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
Oh definitely. I mean, I had him going 8 to Minnesota, and was all in favor of Buffalo taking him at 9.
As for one idiot's opinion, yeah, Nawrocki descended into buffoonery...but the point is that there was plenty of discussion regarding Donald's ability to hold up on the interior.
See, here's the difference between me and you and everyone else. I dont' care about where players are ranked.
I understand the inevitability that there are going to be a whole bunch of busts. It's expected for those that don't want to bury their heads in the sand.
I wouldn't have drafted Oliver anywhere where he'd have been available. If by some outside stroke her were still there in the 2nd I'd have thought about it then. Remember when they said that Ragland was really a 1st-round LB? There have been other players as well.
I don't pay any attention to any of that. My take on Zay Jones was that he was a mid-round risk-worthy pick at best, but it was likely that he too would be gone by then, so as a team I wouldn't even bother thinking about him.
I pay very little attention to convention when it comes to the Draft.
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22 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:
I'm expecting that Oliver is that quick penetrating DT that is impossible to handle with a one on one block. I believe his style of play will be similar to Gerald McCoy or John Randle. Time will tell whether Oliver can do that. If he can't, it will likely have been a bad selection at pick number 9. I believe that he will deliver the results that the Bills want and turn out to be a great draft pick. If Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson can't take advantage of their opportunities, the Bills should move on from them.
Again, that's the narrative, that's what everyone is saying. There's a reason for that, theyr'e all drawing their info from the same source.
Did those sources watch all the times that Oliver was stood up agianst Sr. OL-man Paul Stawarz like I did? I don't think they did. He didn't even get drafted or even picked up as an UFA, at least not that I see. That's relevant independent research.
What you say about double-teams and Oliver many people here have disagreed with in their posts. Where are they getting theiir info. (rhetorical)
Talk, particularly sports talk, is tremendously cheap, and for those that do it for a living, they can be 90% wrong and have jobs for years.
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19 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:
Lotulolei hasn't been a pass rusher throughout his career. His game is to tie up two blockers on running plays and create space for the linebackers to make plays.
Again, yes, that's the narrative. Must be why our LBs logged a whopping 10.5 sacks last season. At some point the narrative needs to be reconciled with what the results are.
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25 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
I'm okay with him running if he doesn't take hits....he actually goes down.
Like you, I don't want him to just take off running at any sign of pressure. If he's sitting in the pocket and our interior lineman just blow up the middle (we paid top dollar for Morse) and there is just a huge opening...that's okay to take. I mean, I've seen Tom Brady scramble for 15 yards because the Red Sea parted in front of him.
Exactly!
And frankly, his rushing game should "supplement" his passing game. It's his passing game, which needs major help, that's going to distinguish him as a passer, whether it's an average passer, a franchise QB passer, whatever. The rushing will be secondary if not tertiary even. Throwing the ball away when warranted may be a better option than taking off.
BTW, love your avatar/name.
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3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
Nice to know that you once again refuse to acknowledge what anyone is actually saying and just trundle onward with your rant.
I'm only slightly amazed that you somehow got the literal opposite of the point that I was making from my post.
But I suppose that when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
I know exactly what you're saying. It's not difficult to grasp, there's no depth there.
But once again, projecting an exception to make a point about another player is entirely remiss. Unfortunately this place is laden with such stuff. That's why all the false narratives form and why unrealistic expectations are put in place.
I don't care what they said about Donald. It's irrelevant, completely. MY posts were reacting to what people here say about Oliver in relation to Donald. What was in his draft profile is entirely irrelevant to any points that I've attempted to convey. So the one missing the boat entirely is you. Sorry.
Your post only makes sense if your meaning is that they're reviews are going to be off on Oliver too. Could very well be the case, hell, they're not any more accurate than the non-expert draft profilers, they all typically pull their info and opinions from the same relatively small collection of data and video, so why on earth would any of their conclusions be a whole lot different than each other's? I'm one of the few people out there that will conduct my own analysis and challenge the establishment as such. Unfortunately for them my track record is a whole lot better than theirs whether you or anyone here cares to admit it or not. Then again, and just oddly, perhaps a huge part of the reason for that is because I'll spend 20 or 30 hours reviewing our top draft picks. I'm the one that sees, Oliver for example since we're talking about him, getting stood up routinely in a game against a Sr. OL-man that wasn't drafted or even picked up as an UFA. I'm the one that points out that almost all (never say never) of the OL-man that Oliver's beaten arent' any better.
So, and call me nuts, for me to believe that he'll do the same thing in the NFL is a bit much. Again, has absolutely nothing to do with Donald. I'm not the one making comparisons to Donald re: Oliver. The opposite in fact.
And fine, don't like Walter, use nfl.com. I'm not a big fan of the analytical methods of ANY draft gurus, Kiper, Mayock, any of them. Few if any really spend the time required to get a tremendously in-depth analysis. I've fully explained why on time-constraints to do so alone. I guarantee you that I've spent more time than any of them on Oliver and Allen.
But numerous draft profiles, for example, state that Oliver struggles against double teams, which is clearly what my review of his videos shows as well, yet, many people here have run on with some ill-founded narrative that he tears up not only double-teams but triple-teams.
I don't ever compare a rookie to another player other than for perhaps illustrating what my expectations might be, as a mere example, IMO that's the easiest way to get off the rails in any draftee review, to compare them to other NFL players. And when I do it it's typically for the benefit of someone I'm talking with on that player.
None of what I've just said should be difficult for anyone to get their mental arms around. May not agree, but it's simple to understand.
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3 minutes ago, teef said:
it's going to happen, but i don't want it happening as much as it did last year.
It needs to happen when receivers really aren't open, not with one or two open in the flats or on the wings but Allen just doesn't see them because he was too busy looking downfield for the big play.
He's really going to have to make a huge mental effort to look for those high-percentage passes this season, but again, not at the expense of receivers downfield where the throws truly would be good ones. It's a taller order than everyone seems to think. Here's hoping.
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6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:
I have a problem with "scouts" using Donald's NFL profile to compare him to Oliver's college profile. It's revisionist. Online scouts said the same exact things about Donald back in 2014:
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2014/3/15/5473430/aaron-donald-scouting-report
"Donald will never be mistaken for a two-gap run stuffer. He struggles to hold his ground against multiple blockers and will get overpowered. But at the same time, teams shouldn't expect him to be that type of defensive tackle. "
"Because he's not a classic 315-pound monster, Donald doesn't have the power of some defensive tackles. While he doesn't get pushed around, he doesn't necessarily win because of his strength. "
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/aaron-donald?id=2543485
WEAKNESSES
Marginal height and frame is nearly maxed out. Hands are more active than strong -- could play with more pop and power. Overpowered in the run game and ground up by double teams. Gets snared and controlled by bigger, longer blockers. Not a two-gap player. Has some tweener traits -- lacks ideal length and bend to play outside.
DRAFT PROJECTION
Rounds 4-5
BOTTOM LINE
Short, scrappy, instinctive, highly productive defensive lineman who does not look the part, but inspires confidence he can be an exception to the rule. Is the type you root for and has the quickness, athleticism and motor to earn a spot as a rotational three-technique in a fast-flowing 4-3 scheme.
Now, make no mistake, I disagreed with the above at the time, and I repeatedly said that if neither Watkins nor Evans fell to Buffalo's spot at 9, they should take Donald, because he's the best defensive player in the draft. But for Walter (or anyone else) to say that Donald didn't have the same reservations to his name is simply revisionist.
Well, I didn't use any info from when Donald was a draftee.
Otherwise, it's good to know that Oliver, whom his own coaches at Houston said was too heavy at much over 275, will play like Donald.
I'll look forward to that this season. You've just convinced me.
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1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:
Don't take this personally, but you do NOT deal in hard data and facts you're a world class cherry picker. I love how you use "until week 17" to remove Allen's best statistical performance from the discussion. Gee the guy only started and completed 10 games and you're throwing out 10% of his play because it doesn't fit your narrative. This is the kind of stuff that gives statistics a bad name.
I didn't remove it, I merely pointed out that it literally doubled several of his significant stats, and I pointed some of those out.
It's funny tho, people arguing such as you just did have issues with removing one game in a myriad of games, but then they'll turn around and use that one game while ignoring that myriad to form a steady-state in their mind. LOL
1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:Gee for a guy who claims to have watched all sorts of video on Allen you didn't notice all those balls he threw away into the stands? Do you think that maybe because the O-line struggled Daboll told Allen to throw the damn ball away rather then take a sack? Then you compare this "stat" to the # of uncatchable passes thrown by Rosen as if that's a bad thing! Well Rosen is a smart QB and if he had Allen's escapibility I bet he would have thrown a lot more "uncatchable" passes into the cheap seats rather then take a sack or throw a pick.
Might be a good idea to do some research on what uncatchable passes are before making a post like that. Just sayin'.
We've been over ther rest of the stuff in your post several times. No need to continue the back-n-forth on it. I know your position you know mine, or at least you should although posts like the rest of this one make me wonder. Either way, no need to rehash the same stuff over. If you didn't get it the first, second,or third times you won't get it on the fourth and following times either. Besides, it would seem that some of your definitions and understanding of statistical categories is incongruous with reality. So at that point we're speaking different languages.
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7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
You're avoiding, overlooking, or unaware of some metrics that show Hughes' 2018 performance in a much more favorable light:
"Hughes’ pass-rushing performance was truly among the best in the game in 2018. On 397 pass-rushing snaps, he had the second-highest pass-rushing grade (90.4), the highest pass-rush win rate (23.9%) and the league’s highest pressure rate (19.7%).
When there was no blitz or stunt executed by the Buffalo defense, Hughes posted a staggering 25.6% pass-rush win rate — by far the best among edge defenders — but on top of that, Hughes was still at the top when a stunt was indeed executed by Buffalo. His 90.1 pass-rush grade from such plays was the highest among edge defenders, with second-place Demarcus Lawrence far in the rearview mirror, at 85.6."
Fair points.
As stated, he's easily the best pass-rusher we have. McBeane haven't effectively done much to supplement.
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8 minutes ago, teef said:
i'm good with this. i don't care where the yards come from, i'd just love to see a more productive backfield.
Except for Allen. Don't like seeing that too much. Not if we want him around for the long haul.
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4 hours ago, Fred Slacks said:
How is someone watched Allen last season and is unable to recognize his improvement over the last 5-6 games of the season is beyond me. They need to rewatch the games. Don’t look at the stats. The ball is placed just fine. A few times it’s placed incredibly well.
I don't think that anyone has argued that he didn't improve. But even his last six games were below average. He averaged a mere 1 TD/game in the first five of those last 6 games. The Miami game really skewed his stats in several signiifcant areas, Red Zone passing being one of them. In the first five of those games he had only 2 RZ TDs in 5 games. Not even one every other game. His splits for what would typically indicate RZ type of play were horrific, over his last six as well as all season.
I've laid this out before, but over his last six he was 94 for 181 (51.9%), 1,242 Yards (207/game), 8 TDs, 7 INTs, 72.6 rating (which sucks), YPA of 6.9, Adj. YPA of 6.0.
So while yes, it was improvement, I mean who can possibly argue that it wasn't improvement, it was. But still, here's how those six weeks ranked among NFL QBs on the entire season, including the other rookies whose first bunch of games we didn't remove like we did Allen's;
Rating: Nothing changes, Allen still ranks 32nd of 33 ahead of only Rosen.
Compl. %: Allen still rates DFL
YPA: Allen ranks tied with Darnold for 26th
Adj. YPA: Allen still ranks 32nd ahead of only Rosen
Yards/Game: he ranks 30th ahead of Mariota, Tannehill, and Rosen.
So yes, there was improvement, but consider how bad he was if that's improvement. Because "franchise QB status" is so astronomically above that it'll be a miracle if he hits it this season. It'll be very fortuitous if he can even play like an average QB this season insofar as the passing game goes.
His 2nd and 3rd down games are the worst in the league. It didn't change at the end of the season.
His Red Zone game is horrific, worst in the league. The Miami game literally doubled his RZ stats on the entire season.
His short-game is highly questionable at best.
He's TO prone.
He has trouble both pre and post snap reading plays.
If he can manage to get himself to average NFL QB performance it'll be fortuitous and something to build on.
Last season the average NFL QB (16th/17th rankings):
3,800 Yards (approx. 240 YPG)
22 Passing TDs
11 INTs
7.5 YPA
95 Rating
66% Completions
That's a very significant jump from where he was. So yes, there was improvement, but no, even with that improvement he didn't finish with good metrics.
If he can play like he did vs. Miami all season for 16 games, we're looking at the next Mahomes. If not, we may very well be looking at the next Locker or Leinart. Then of course there's everything in between.
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1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:
Being topped out doesn't mean he's not ready a good player
He was all over the place last year and his 7 sacks dont reflect that. If he plays at the same level as last year and has 7-10 sacks and we get some pressure opposite him out defense will be in great shape
He's good, he's not great, and he's not going to be getting any better.
He's also not McBeane's acquisition. He was here well before they ever arrived.
My point was contrasting Hughes' 10 sacks in '13 and '14. That was a half-decade ago. Even then that was good, not great. 9.5 sacks was good for 19th in 2014 and 10 sacks was good for 20th in 2013.
As to reflecting his play, his play will be reflected by what kind of an impact he made. He's one of our better players, but still, he ranked tied for 38th in sacks, tied for 16th in TFLs, and tied for 130th in QB Hits. He was tied for 335th in combination tackles. Granted, he was a DE, but even amongst DEs he ranked 35th in combination tackles, 24th in solo tackles, and 73rd in Assisted Tackles. You can make of that what you want, but he's not the same player he was five or six years ago.
"Being all over the field" really doesn't tell us much, particularly since there's a large degree of subjectivity in terms of what that actually means, eh. Those numbers do tell us much tho.
Having said all of that, he's our best pass-rusher, which IMO doesn't say much for McBeane.
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33 minutes ago, billspro said:
He needs to take more short throws, no argument there. The Bills had the worst WR core in the league last year. There are advanced WR stats showing their separation in the bottom 5. Were there plays they were open? sure. Did Allen look for the homerun ball far too often? Yes. That will be one of the easiest things to fix, especially when you add a WR like Beasley. Really all Allen needs to do is take the short throws the defence is giving him and he will become an elite QB, he has all the talent in the world.
I don't know about that. Bottom 5 isn't "worst."
I disagree on Allen looking for the homerun ball being easiest to fix. That's a heavy-duty mental thing that I think is going to take a whole lot more work and ingenuity to correct that you and many others seem to think it will.
I'll say it again, the WRs we had last season that were in the spots where Beasley will be this season, were invisible to Allen last year. The areas where Beasley has traditionally "buttered his bread" are Allens weakest areas. As you can see from that video, guys were open in those spots, so it clearly had nothing to do with guys not being open exclusively, maybe on some plays, but hardly as a rule as the existing narrative goes.
So how does one corredt that? It's obviously not by signing a WR that's going to be open in those same spots. Has more, everything, to do with the QB involved. That's not nearly as easy as everyone seems to think or as trivially corrected as they're all saying.
Look at Allen's splits sometime. On 2nd-and-4-6 and 3rd-and-4-6 he was horrid, going a combined 22 of 48 (45.8%) which is flat out awful. It's no better on 2nd-and-7-9 and 3rd-and-7-9 where he was a combined 22 of 46 (47.8%).
Allen was only good on 1st-n-10, and 2nd-n-10+. That's it. Other than in those two situations he was 77 for 157 (49.0%), for 878 Yards (5.59 YPA), 3 TDs (one every 52 throws), 7 INTs (one every 22 throws), with a rating below 50.
And while I'm going to be guilty of oversimplification here, Beasley's going to be more in the role with the above.
Either way, and getting back to your "worst WRs" comment, which is a ubiquitous narrative here, I have a very difficult time believing that our WRs were unquestionably worse than every other team. Did you look at who the other teams had?
Jax: Dede Westbrook, Donte Moncrief, Keelan Cole
Arizona (Rosen): Fitzgerald (at 35), Christian Kirk, Trent Sherfield, and Chad Williams
Washington: Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder, and Maurice Harris
Jets: Robby Anderson, Quncy Enunwa, and Jermaine Kearse
Tennessee: Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, and Tajae Sharpe
Baltimore: John Brown, Willie Snead, and Michael Crabtree
It's arguable at best. But either way, take any set of those and put them on our team last season, do you see a big difference in Allen's play? I don't.
Either way, we have Brown and Beasley now, so everything's fixed I'm told. I'm still skeptical, but if after three years McBeane can't figure this out, then they in fact need to go.
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37 minutes ago, billspro said:
I’m pretty sure Zay Jones said that play was his fault. That play doesn’t really show separation skills imo.
Jones has no separation skills. He didn't in college either.
Anyone that didn't do their homework on him prior to drafting him, shame on them.
From nfl.com's draft profile on Jones:
WEAKNESSES
Play speed is very average. Lacks vertical push to force cornerbacks to open and run early and doesn't have second gear to separate from coverage down the field. Thin frame. Struggles to find clean releases against press coverage due to play strength and foot quickness. High-volume production helped by high percentage of short throws and wide receiver screens. Sticky out of breaks and unable to shake tight coverage. Limited amount of burst and wiggle after the catch and won't create much more than is there. Not overly-committed as a run blocker.
Keep in mind, that was largely against defensive backs that aren't starting for any NFL team today.
Either way, who did their homework, read that, and decided that Jones would be able to get separation in the NFL?
Is that a wise take realizing that a player will be henceforth facing DBs far faster than the ones that he couldn't separate from to begin with?
I know that I heeded it, and combined with Jones playing in formations that simply weren't used in the NFL, against inferior competition contrasted with the types of players that make it to the NFL, and in situations, namely garbage time, that saw him load up on gawdy numbers, often against second-teams, that was more than enough for me to come to a firm assessment. That was one of the easier ones I've ever done with the least time effort in fact.
Just sayin'.
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4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:
I forgot to address this sentence which IMO is not correct. While Darnold & Allen could be said to have played last year under "similar situations" the same CAN NOT be said about Jackson. First, he didn't start until half way through the season giving him time to learn on the bench; 2nd Jackson played for a playoff caliber team with excellent TE's & O-line and a very effective running game. IMO, If you put either Dranold or Allen on Baltimore last season they easily match what Jackson did and neither of them would have been shut down in the way Jackson & the Ravens offense was by SD in the playoffs.
Don't take this personally, but I'm not using your opinion, I'm using hard data. That's exactly the problem in this place, opinions trump facts and hard data.
Until week 17 Allen was DFL by a country mile in the Red Zone even well behind Rosen. It was only after that Fins game, one game, where he essentially doubled his RZ stats that rendered him comparable to Rosen.
He was ranked 35th of 35 in uncatchable passes. That means he ranked behind Jackson, Darnold, Mayfield, and yes, even Rosen as such. Statistically he ranked essentially right alongside Rosen.
Whether or not it's your or anyone's opinion is irrelevant. It's not my opinion either, it's facts and hard data that I'm basing my arguments on. Anything to the contrary at this point, ANYTHING, is pure speculation. The rest is nothing more than excuses. We all get it, only a minority portion of Allen's issues actually had to do with him, the rest was the fault of the coaches, team, other players, etc.
Great news however, our OL is now well above average, we finally have stud WRs, and Daboll's going to fix the rest. So we're good.
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5 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:
Hey, Mods: please pin for future crucifixion. Thanks!
Yes, please, pin this.
ROC, why don't you go take a good hard look at my takes on Watkins, Manuel, Spiller, Lawson, Ragland, Zay Jones, and a bunch of others.
I GUARANTEE you some have but needless to say, my takes on them weren't reposted. Funny how that works.
But yes, please, pin this.
4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:I would not be as bullish on Allen if he was drafted by the Jets or Finns because like others, I would be judging the guy entirely by his stats. And since I'm NOT a Jet's or Finns fan I would not have watched EVERY one of their games and concluded that the stats do not tell the whole story about Allen. Nor would I have been as aware of the real improvement seen in Allen's game after he returned from injury. I consider improvement in a rookie QB's play to be a much more important metric then most of the statistics being tossed around.
It's because I did watch every one of Allen's snaps from scrimmage and I watched them with a high degree of interest as his success or failure is critical to the Bill's future, that I can be bullish on him.
But I do have friends who are Jets fans and if they had sat me down and got me to watch Allen's highlights I would have been impressed. And if Allen played on the Dolphins and had games against the Bills like he did against the Finns I would be very concerned that Miami had gotten themselves a hell of a QB. And for the record, I hadn't seen much of Darnold until the Bills/Jets game and I came away impressed and believe he has a similar potential as Allen to be a very good QB.
One final point is that I had watched several of Allen's games when he was in college. I used to love watching those Mountain West games on late ESPN and I came away impressed with Allen. It was obvious he needed a lot of work but he made throws I had never seen a QB make at any level of football. I even thought wouldn't it be cool if the Bills could grab him in the 4th round. So I do have a bias in favor of the guy. Of course my bigger bias is in favor of the Buffalo Bills who will be in deep trouble if Allen turns out to be a bust.
Oh and the fact we ended paying a much higher price for Allen then a 4th round pick is irrelevant IF he becomes a franchise level QB.
Correct, IF.
We'll see. But if not, then I envision no scenario where McBeane are kept on, meaning we'll be back at the proverbial "square one" like we've been for years.
Again, RISKY. Very. There were far less risky approaches to make us better. That's the ultimate goal here, to make us playoff competitive.
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9 hours ago, mattynh said:
Yeah, I share your concern. There seems to be a lot of people who have no concern and think Allen is refined.....his "catchable balls" are right up there and his completion % issue is only due to the other players on the Bills offense last year. The high end of production to expect/hope for out of Beasley is something like 2018 Zay Jones numbers....maybe a few more catches. There seems to be a disproportionate amount of excitement about Beasley compared to what his past production/value are.
Presumably you meant his "uncatchable balls" where he was worse than all the rookies and DFL in the league.
He ranked 35th of 35, and was so far below-average that it's almost unfathomable.
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2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HughJe99.htm
And pro football reference has him with 10 not 9.5
It doesn't matter, he is an established NFL player going on almost a decade
Hughes was tied for 38th with 10 other players last season in sacks. He's averaged 5.5/season over the past four seasons. He'll be 31 this season. Logic would suggest that he's topped out now or very close to it.
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1 hour ago, Limeaid said:
Only one I saw had math issues. It stated 50% chance of 9 and under sacks as well as 50% chance of 9 and over sacks.
I could see the over if they completely dominate an offense line and if Oliver promises to just two hand touch QB down the OL will allow it so he does not get hurt.
That's all but ridiculous. That U9 is a gimme.
28 total players had 9+ sacks last season, only 7 were DTs.
Donald led the league, DeForest Buckner, Jarran Reed, Fletcher Cox, and Geno Atkins were next in the progression and they're all entirely different types of players. Denico Autry is the only one that's in Oliver's prototye, and interestingly, he played DE too. I have no idea how many of his 9 sacks were from the DE position. That was also an odd positive year for him as he nearly matched his sack total from his other four years combined.
I think we'll end up seeing Oliver playing some DE as well.
2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:I don't think anybody expects double-digit sacks out of Oliver
If he gets 6-8 and disrupts alot of plays I think most would be ecstatic
Fully agree. Donald had 9 in his rookie season. Oliver's not Donald nor is he going to be.
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4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
Willie McGinest has tabbed Ed Oliver as one of his breakout pass rushers
While I don't expect a season of 12+ sacks I do think he will be a force and disrupting QBs lives all season
Quickest path to the QB is straight up the middle
I think he's going to have to avoid double-teams if he's going to do that. Not sure I see that happening.
From Ed Oliver's Draft profiles:
nfl.com:
- Gets mauled by down blocks and double teams
Walter Football: Double teams also can give him problems.
"He is not the same guy as Donald," said one source. "He is more comparable to a Dominique Easley. [Oliver is] disruptive, twitchy, and can do a lot of positive things, so that is why people are eager to compare him to Donald because they both have surprising speed. But Oliver is not Donald. Donald is extremely strong, and you could see that at the Senior Bowl when he was tossing guys around. Oliver has issues with mass and problems with double teams that Donald does not. [Oliver's] lateral anchor is a problem."
The 3-technique will help him in that way but he's undersized, which I'm not sure needs to be reiterated, for a 3-T.
I have greater hopes for him at DE, I'd really like to see what he can do out there with his speed. I have a hunch that's where he'll end up. I'm not bullish on him at 3T. I think he'll be OK there but nowhere near his expectations. I don't know if he has enough speed to play DE but I'm simply not seeing greatness at 3T/DT for him.
That Dominique Easley comparison seems valid to me.
1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:The sacks from DT would be great but there may be more benefit in forcing opponents to alter their pass blocking scheme to the benefit of Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson. I'm also hoping for the inside pressure to force premature throws and some interceptions. I don't know how it will play out but I can't wait to see Oliver in real game action.
That's what everyone said that they brought Lotulolei in for. Either that hasn't worked, which is MO, or it has and Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson simply haven't been able to take advantage.
Pass rushers primed to breakout
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Oh dude, you're hilarious.
I'm not pointing out my "draft genius" or anything, I'm simply stating that I'm perfectly comfortable with my analyses and for good reason. I could give a crap whether you care. Really. The rest is critical discussion.
And yes, everyone saw for themselves how great and special Spiller would be, or how Watkins would dominate, and how the record-setting Jones would be prolific.
Yeah yeah. Again, would love to see your assessments of those guys since you brought it up how much time and effort you spend on such things.
I'll assume that those are not forthcoming.
Otherwise, I think we're finished here. You're getting all personal and I don't care. We've exhausted our discussion of Oliver in any form it's been carried on. We wont' agree until the results come in.