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Warren Zevon

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Posts posted by Warren Zevon

    The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    1 minute ago, SectionC3 said:

    I was thinking the same thing!  The lame stream media is so wrong on this one.  Trump should stand idly but as Russians pay foreigners to hunt American soldiers!  And people should do as trump says — wear a mask, snowflakes — and not as he does.   Make American again keep great again 2020! 

     

    No, it's Keep America Great!

    Covid 19 vs Trump

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Chef Jim said:

    Here’s the funny thing. Had he demanded all Americans follow a strict protocol as opposed to leaving it up to the states it would have been cries of “see he IS a dictator!!!”

     

     

     

    It would have been the right thing to do. Stop worrying about what people think of the president and start worrying about the fate of the country.

    • Like (+1) 2

    The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, GG said:

     

    The data is out there if you weren't lazy.  Start with the basics that <20 yr olds are 50% less likely to get infected.  Not be asymptomatic, but not susceptible to get the virus in the first place.  So please tell me why 20% natural resistance across the population is out of whack?

     

    Your numbers make sense but your assumptions behind them I find faulty. I'd be interested in reading some scientific articles on the percentage of the population that has natural resistance to coronavirus.

     

    I've Googled/DuckDuckGoed: "Coronavirus natural resistance" and "covid natural resistance" but could not find any. Feel free to share.

     

    Happy Friday - Silver Lake calls, time to rev up the boat. 

    The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    Just now, GG said:

     

    Do you even bother comprehending what you post.  Here's the operative statement:

     

    To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. 

     

    That includes people who were infected or are immune from the get go.

     

    Cool - my original point before you went on your wild tangent is we have not reached herd immunity like was claimed. 

    5 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

    As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe.

     

    The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted · Edited by Warren Zevon

    5 minutes ago, GG said:

     

    Read their guidance for yourself.  The specifically state "infected", while most academic articles discuss "exposure"  Two different animals

     

    Johns Hopkins

     

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

     

    We have listened with concern to voices erroneously suggesting that herd immunity may “soon slow the spread”1 of COVID-19. For example, Rush Limbaugh2 recently claimed that “herd immunity has occurred in California.” As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe.

     

    Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4%3–5 of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%6,7 of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher.8

     

    Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,”9 akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. For example, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the mortality rate among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 was 1%. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk. COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States, killing almost 2,000 Americans every day.8 Chickenpox never killed more than 150 Americans in a year.9

     

    To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.

     

    As we discuss when and how to phase in re-opening,10 it is important to understand how vulnerable we remain. Increased testing will help us better understand the scope of infection, but it is clear this pandemic is still only beginning to unfold.

    The Thread For Greg's Stashes

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted · Edited by Warren Zevon

    2 minutes ago, GG said:

     

    Sounds like a threat.   Question, which one of us falls under this TSW guideline?

     

    "Personal "crusades" (posting the same information/opinion in an excessively repetitive manner. We want posters to share opinions not bludgeon others to death with them.)"

     

    @ a mod

     

    And while you're add it let them know about Reality Check who posts the same video of chimps slinging ***** in every single thread.

    The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, GG said:

     

    That 70% figure is part of the panic porn, because they represent it as the number of people who were infected by the virus, as opposed to the number of people who have been exposed to the virus.  There is a good number of people who may be naturally resistant to the virus in the first place, which is proven by less than 100% infection rates of immediate family members.   So if you look at the recent estimates that up to 30% of people in highly infected areas had the virus, and apply a similar percentage to people who were exposed, but didn't contract it (ie almost everyone under 20), then you can easily get to 60% exposure to the virus in the last 6 months. 

     

    The anecdotal evidence proves it by the almost complete elimination of the spread in regions that got hard hit in Feb - April.

     

    You are more reliable than Mayo Clinic - no doubt about it. Thanks for controlling the panic porn.

     

     

    5Genius

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