Which of the seven #1 overalls are you counting as successes?
You could make the argument that only Eli Manning has really panned out. Perhaps Palmer, but for as much talent as he has had on his side of the ball, he really hasn't done all that much and I wouldn't count him among the league's elite. Vick...well, you don't pick a guy #1 to go to jail for two years.
That leaves Couch, Alex Smith, Russell and Carr.
I think the chances might be more like 14-86 or 28-72.
You're right, that's a pretty grim list.