SageAgainstTheMachine
-
Posts
9,611 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by SageAgainstTheMachine
-
-
The thread I started today reversed this kicker luck for us.
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
If the Pats/Broncos result holds (which seems likely now), we clinch a playoff spot next week with just these 3 probable results:
1) We beat the Pats
2) Chiefs beat the Bengals
3) Seahawks beat the Steelers
2 or 3 can be replaced with the Jaguars losing to the Panthers (not likely) or the Colts and Texans both losing to the Raiders and Titans respectively (also not likely).
"Somewhat probable"
-
1
-
-
Revisit this topic in three years.
-
1
-
-
It’s good to remember that the Bills winning around the holidays can make it a really tough time of year for pessimistic fans.
-
3
-
1
-
-
19 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:
Nice rebuttal. I was thinking the same thing.
The logic he used to dismiss the OP he didn’t use to counter it. What he’s really saying is “negative situations are ALWAYS our fault. No excuses allowed under any conditions whatsoever.”
That’s what happens when people think with negative emotions instead of their brain or gut.
“No excuses” is an interesting argument. You notice it is a certain type of hard ass, not always bright type of fan that parrots this.
Basically there is truth to it. We all have independent agency to change our outcome in life. That sort of American pull yourself up by your bootstraps mentality. But it’s never black and white.
Even the greatest men and women who ever lived had ups and downs. Life moves in cycles. Sometimes the universe punches you in the mouth when you least expect it. The sign of a great person at that moment is showing resiliency and getting back up and punching back. For these fans, the fact you got knocked down already means you lost.
Basically these fans lack the wisdom of life, despite whatever age they are. They don’t understand cycles, resilience, and the way of the world. I’d argue they have little victory in their own lives to understand what it looks like to win at this type of level.
There is a time and place for “no excuses” and “no moral victories”. But there also is a place for them when you fight your hardest against the flow of the river and come up short. Josh Allen’s career has been the epitome of this. He literally pushes against the walls of the matrix and causes glitches which are then seen in the strange narratives around him.
These concepts are simply over the poster’s head. That is why he had a blind spot to his fallacy that you called out and an emotional bias towards the negative.
I’m a semi-professional poker player. People with the outlook you’re describing, where bad luck is never an excuse for negative outcomes nor can good luck mitigate a positive outcome, hemorrhage money at a rate only second to the degenerate problem gamblers.
-
2
-
-
26 minutes ago, BBFL said:
Timeout.
26/28.
For real? Which one besides the TB miss? -
2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
I try not to be the complain about the ref guy but mannn was that what it felt like
like if you wanna take away one first down pickup with a ticky tack oline penalty yea ok…but two in a row? 😂.
Morse’s hold was borderline. Brown’s leg whip was egregious and the direct result of a complete whiff on the block.-
3
-
2
-
-
6 minutes ago, Rubes said:
Thank you for looking that up. I was thinking of doing it myself after this game, since it seemed to me as well that other teams just don’t seem to miss (unless we have 12 men on the field).
The kick by Elliott in the Eagles game was the craziest. 61 yards in the wind and rain. Low line drive that looks like it wants to knuckle but just powers through. There's no way that was higher than a 20% probability kick.
-
2
-
2
-
-
16 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
Weird observation but compared to Tremaine Edmunds, Bernard has the body of an accountant. But he's simply put a better football player.
-
3
-
-
1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:
I can’t remember the miss. Wasn’t it a block?
Yep
https://www.nfl.com/videos/shaq-lawson-blocks-chase-mclaughlin-s-50-yard-fg-attempt
-
I like how this "somewhat probable" scenario got nixed in the very first game.
-
4
-
7
-
-
Just now, djp14150 said:
Now we blame the FGs against….
Blame? It's just an observation about variance. 96% is a couple standard deviations above expected.
-
14
-
-
Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome. It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season. Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow.
But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?
-
6
-
1
-
6
-
1
-
-
Another game where Josh wasn't forced to CARRY the team, but the 11 yard completion in a tight window to Stef and 3rd and 9, then the heave under pressure to Shakir won that contest. Contrary to what the talking heads say he actually has a knack for game winning drives, it's just that someone on the defense actually closed it out this time.
-
4
-
1
-
2
-
-
We're 4-1 in the Joe Brady era and the offense was excellent in the one loss. Let the man do his thing. Biggest thing right now is that the OL looks excellent in run protection and poor in pass protection. Josh will still get his opportunities to win games with his arm when it counts. He did that today.
-
1
-
-
The last two weeks show just how important winning the division is. We need to be playing home games.
-
3
-
-
They've shown they can win or lose against all 31 teams in the NFL. It's a weird feeling where I'd believe you if you told me we'd go on a run where we win the SB with each game being a blowout and I'd also believe you if you told me we ended up 9-8 and missing out on the playoffs entirely.
Been entertaining if nothing else.
-
2
-
-
Ty Johnson is doing very well as a second rusher. Ain't broke, don't fix it.
-
6
-
2
-
1
-
1
-
-
Do any Bills make it? Josh for second or third team?
Ed? Schowman? Like usual our roster is more on the "everyone is above average" side.
-
8 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:
Patriots and Chargers at home.
At the Raiders week 18.
I know. And even if we assign them an 80% chance at winning each game (which is high) they have an over 50% chance of losing one.-
1
-
1
-
2
-
-
4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:
The Broncos aren’t losing another game either Holy cow that schedule. Ridiculous.
So they’ll be 10-7.
So weird seeing takes like this. There are like 4-6 upsets every week and the Broncos are mediocre as hell. We’re just handing them 3 wins?-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:
The principle of only watching the NFL on network TV or streaming services you already subscribe to or offer free trials and oh yeah, I'll be back next week...is a hell of a cause. Keep up the good fight.
I’m getting the Nobel Foundation on the horn. -
And the award for least resourceful internet user goes to…
-
4
-
-
20 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:
Games like yesterday's are among the reasons I hate QB stats. They can be so misleading. You have to watch the games to understand a QB's performance. QB stats are so bad, that if you look at completion % and QB rating, Rob Johnson was a better Bills QB than Jim Kelly. I rest my case.
I always find it kind of funny how most people already know (or at least intuit) this on some level but there’s something about our human brains that like simple counting stats.
Around the League Week 16
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Following the Eagles loss, our playoff chances were at less than 20% and I can only imagine the chances of clinching before the final game were less than 1%. You just do not know what's going to happen in this league.