wjag
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8 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:
The Ravens have gone for 4th down 6 more times than the Bills. You’re talking as if the Bills never do it.Baltimore is 19th in time of possession.
Your facts are correct. But to me, it's not how many times you do it as much as when you do it. I've watched every Bills game and every Ravens game this season. The Ravens do it to keep their momentum up. They do it to establish a lead and keep the lead. I don't have the facts to back me up here, but some of those times the Bills have done it were forced (losing late). And 15/20 and 6/14 are dramatically different in the game setting.
The only time I can recall it coming back to bite the Ravens was their game in KC. That was early season when Mahomes was Mahoming. The scuttle but in Baltimore was they had to match the Chiefs explosiveness so they went for it on their own 40 early in the 1st quarter (can you ever imagine our head coach doing this?) They didn't make it and Mahomes Mahomed them. After that, they had gone full throttle in their eight game win streak. And they are doing it by going on 4th down early in games to get the lead. I saw an interesting stat about the 10-2 Ravens. There are five teams in the NFL with a record of 10-2 (Baltimore, NE, SF, NO, Sea). The Ravens have beaten three of them (NE - Smashed them, SF -- survived them and Seattle - whipped them in their yard).
I'll be rooting as hard as the next guy. I hate the Ravens more than just about any other team not named NE. I think the key to stopping the Ravens is not so much stopping Jackson (he's going to get his) as it is stopping Ingram from running between the guards for 8-10 yards a carry on 1st or 2nd down. The play action between Ingram and Jackson is killing teams. They can't figure out which one of them has the ball. If the Ravens are in 3rd and 6, they will run either Ingram or Jackson to get four or five yards knowing they are going on 4th and short. That's what is making this team so difficult to defend. They use all four downs to play offense from the get go. Baltimore only punted twice against the Niners. Twice!
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Bills 9
Baltimore 31
I've watched Baltimore all season. There is no current league answer for Jackson/Ingram/Edwards.
I don't think people appreciate how good the Baltimore Defense is since it is all LJ, all the time these days.
Baltimore does not follow conventional rules and we have a conventional rules coach. Whereas Baltimore will go for it on 4 and whatever anywhere on the field, Buffalo will send out the punter/placekicker. Baltimore is 15/20 on 4th down! and their opponents are 6/14!!! In the few times that Baltimore has been stopped on 4th down, their D has bailed them out. The Baltimore Offense goes on 10-15 play drives and eats clock.
I fear the Buffalo hurry up offense and a non-gambling coach will keep giving the ball back to Baltimore until such time as the game requires him not to. I've seen this conservative behavior with Baltimore opponents week in and week out.
The one hope: Last week against a truly stout offense the Baltimore defense got exposed on the edges. They'll surely expect Singletary to try and get there and game plan for it. Singletary needs 120 yards rushing and Allen needs 60 more. However, as long as this team insists on giving Frank Gore the ball in short yardage situations, they are an easy mark.
How I could be wrong: Sean needs to throw out the rulebook here and go for it. He needs to use all four downs and he needs to step on their throat, if given a chance. He needs to fight fire with fire. Let's see how they like a running QB running 10-12 a game.
If he loses, it's just one game he was not expected to win. If he wins, glory. If he wins, the Bills might just run the table with weakened Pitt and NE teams and a hapless Jets team left. I wish I was feeling it, but I am not. It's not stopping me from making the 8-hr trek to come watch it, but I have my expectations fully tempered.
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If you watch Baltimore you quickly realize that LJ throws between the hash marks, unless forced out of the pocket. Defend the middle. They use three tight ends a lot and throw to the backs a lot. They are really not a deep threat team unless they send a TE down the middle. Keep Tre on Brown. San Francisco had a lot of success rushing to the edges rather than going up through the middle. The Ravens will have the same problem the Bills have. If you rush too deep, then JA will take off. So their four interior lineman will stay home leaving the edges open. Watching LJ run, he dekes more guys with his eyes than any QB I have seen. Watch his hips, not his eyes. Easier said than done. SF was okay letting him get his 100.
Force them to wear their white uniforms. Finding the ball against their all black uniforms make the job even harder. Stopping their RBs on first down (again easier said than done) is critical. Baltimore will go on 4th and whatever more than any team in history. Harbaugh has bought into it.
Without knowing if it is true or not, I would venture to say Baltimore is the least penalized team in the NFL. Conversely, Buffalo is good for 8-10 penalties a game. You simply can't extend Baltimore drives with stupid penalties.
Ravens @ Bills ****Predict the score****
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
So I looked it up as well. My memory was off. It was not to say the Bills are not aggressive, but there's aggressive and then there is step on their throat aggressive. Which is what Baltimore is doing all season. Their punter doesn't need to shower after a game.
Here's a snippet from Penn-Live.com that essentially backs up my points. Bolding is my emphasis.
"Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh showed early in Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs he isn’t afraid to take fourth-down risks.
And he’s seen evidence of how those gambles can pay off and how they can go wrong.
On their first possession of the tilt between AFC contenders, the Ravens faced a fourth-and-3 from the Chiefs’ 9-yard line. Harbaugh left his offense on the field and watched as quarterback Lamar Jackson scrambled to pick up the first down, extending a drive that ended with a short Mark Ingram touchdown run a play later.
That gave Baltimore an early 6-0 edge. On the Ravens’ second drive, Harbaugh remained aggressive. The offense converted a fourth-and-1 from their own 34 by handing the ball to running back Gus Edwards and sending him up the middle.
A couple plays later, Baltimore faced a fourth-and-2 from their own 47, and once again, the offense stayed on the field. This time, Kansas City got a stop, pressuring Jackson and forcing him to throw a short incompletion.
The Chiefs turned the good field position into a 47-yard touchdown drive and took a 14-6 lead."
That's three times in the first half. They have never looked back on this aggressive play calling since then. It is reported that Harbaugh has a stats geek that whispers percentages in his ear throughout the game. As I watched them evolve over the season, they are breaking the paradigm in the NFL on when to go for it on 4th down. Buffalo needs to know that 3rd and 6 and a stop almost certainly means they plan to go for it on 4th down. Until they make them pay for that behavior.