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Charles Romes

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Posts posted by Charles Romes

  1. 10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

    You’re saying teams should base their first rd pick on what another team deems as worthy.  I can’t get on board with that.  Do the work. Make your board and stick with it.  If you can’t trust your FO to do that and instead follow another teams board, you should fire your FO.  
     

    KC thought Mecole hardman was worth a 1st.  He wasn’t imo.  They thought Skyy moore was worth a 2nd. He wasn’t (although I thought it was a great pick at the time).  They thought CEH was worth a 1st.  He wasn’t. Maybe we should’ve taken them too.  
     

    agree to disagree bro. 


    they also paid good value for Toney in trying to find a Tyreek substitute.  Their track record of attempting to replace Hill is poor. That perhaps was part of Beane’s calculation.  

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  2. On 4/9/2024 at 3:48 PM, Beck Water said:

    If you want measurables or scouting reports, move on now.

     

    I thought it would be interesting to look at where some of the top WR were drafted.

     

    I started by looking at Y/G for the top-20 WR for the last 3 years.  I used Y/G to normalize for  injuries to WR or QB.

     

    There were 8 guys who have been in the top 20 for 3 years, showing consistency.

    Draft position: round-overall pick

    1-5

    1-17

    1-22

    2-51
    2-53
    3-76

    5-146
    5-165

     

     

    3 from Rd 1 (1 top 10 pick, 2 from the bottom half of the round)

    2 from Rd 2

    1 from Rd 3

    2 from Rd 5

     

    Another 8 guys 2 of 3 years: round-overall pick

    1-4

    1-6

    1-7
    1-7

    1-11
    1-24

    3-69

    3-84

     

    Adding both groups together

    9 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half of the 1st, 3 bottom half)

    2 from Rd 2

    3 from Rd 3

    2 from Rd 5

     

    12 guys who appeared in the top-20 1 of 3 years (keep in mind, this includes rookies and guys whose QB fell to injury): round-overall pick

    1-25

    1-27

    2-33

    2-34

    2-36

    2-52

    2-64

    3-66

    3-69

    3-89

    4-112

    5-177

     

    Adding all 3 groups together

    11 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

    7 from Rd 2 (3 early 2nd, 4 2nd half of the 2nd)

    6 from Rd 3

    1 from Rd 4

    3 from Rd 5

     

    So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years:

    39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

    25% from Rd 2

    21% from Rd 3

    4% from Rd 4

    11% from Rd 5

    What's my takehome from this?  The odds are highest to get a top WR in the 1st, but the chances are about even between the top and bottom half of the round.

    Pretty good odds from Rd 2 and 3

    After that, you can still draft a good WR but, it's a lottery ticket

     

    If I feel energetic, I may go back and look at how many WR were drafted ahead of each of these guys.

     

     

     

     


     

    I agree there is a distribution. But within the top statistical players there are a lot of smaller receivers who work the slot. To get the prototypical big X like we need you generally need to reach higher on the draft board.  

  3. 22 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

    Other.  Trade back from 28 for a team that wants an OT or Penix/Nix.  Take whoever is left from Legette,  Mitchell, Franklin, or Worthy.  Double dip in the 3rd or 4th round.  


    Im worried we will do just that, Mitchell, Legette, and Worthy will be gone, and we will reach for Franklin. 

    • Like (+1) 1
  4. I’m hearing that Ladd is too redundant to Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid, but I’m not sure you can have too many receivers who can create separation in the slot. That’s the type of receiver who Allen loves throwing to and takes advantage of Allen’s huge arm with low risk.  Only a rare-arm strength QBs can make a living off of throwing to receivers who they see open.  

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