The Agony of The Bills

[silvermike]

I don't know how many of you read Advanced NFL Stats (www.advancednflstats.com), but the guy there has spent some time going over games from the past decade developing win probability, based on a similar baseball stat. Basically, the idea is that you look at the score, the down and distance, the yardline, and the time remaining and calculate how likely a given team is to win from that situation.

 

In any case, look here: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/greatgames....=comebackfactor

This is the list of the biggest "comebacks" during Bills games in terms of this stat - how low the chances were for a team that eventually overcame the deficit and won. They're not all necessarily based on being way behind - it's harder to come back from 14 with ten seconds left than from 30 with a half left, say.

 

In any case, look over these games: the Bills lost the five most unlikely comebacks on here, and I remember each one of those games wrenching my heart out.

 

So yeah, the Bills blow it bigger than they eke one out.

[VJ91]

...the Bills blow it bigger than they eke one out.

 

...no kidding? With an overall regular season record of 71-89, and overall playoff record of 0-1-0 (and that one and only playoff game being the "Music City Miraculous Illegal Forward Lateral" loss 10 years ago), I would have never been able to figure out all by myself that the Bills "lose close games more often then they win them!" Thank god for this geke spending too much time alone in his Mom's basement coming up with these "special" stats. Did he have stats for missed "point of attack" blocks by Duke Preston, Melvin Fowler and Trey Teague, too??

[mrags]

That Monday Night game against the Cowboys still hurts