oregonmark Posted April 15, 2006 Author Share Posted April 15, 2006 Let's just do a quick review of what we know:- Ourlads, arguably the most respected indepedent draft service out there, pretty much predicts this guy will be a bust. http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=44966 - He has a history of nagging injuries, including a rebuilt knee - He has a history of taking plays off - He has a history of wearing down in games, which may be related to the taking plays off - His position, DT, has a history of notable top 10 busts. Sure, there are other positions with this history as well, but DT is among them. (OT, for example, does not have this history, with only Mike Williams being a proven out and out bust over the past 15 years as a top 10 pick. Gallery could be #2). - He has good talent but he also has a body type that can take years to start to dominate (probably due to effort), and usually for a different team. Ted Washington was this way. Sam Adams. Grady Jackson. (Shaun Rogers is an exception, as he's been dominant with the Lions, but Rogers was upset that he slipped to a second rounder and played with a chip on his soldier. We're talking about giving this body type instant millions as the #8 overall pick). I think I would love Haloti Ngata if we signed him as a free agent four or five years from now. - The Bills are employing Cover 2, which means there will be a defensive line rotation, which means he'll play a little over half the defensive snaps, especially with his endurance issues. This limits his value to any Cover 2 team that uses a defensive line rotation. IMO, drafting Haloti Ngata at #8 overall is a huge risk, a huge reach, and not getting value for that pick. 662655[/snapback] Something to keep in mind as it has been said that Ngata takes plays off and wears down etc. He played on all special teams except kick off and kick off return. He was also very adept at blocking kicks and general disruption of place kicks by forcing the middle. He will be in much better physical condition as a pro athelete than he was as a college player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 15, 2006 Share Posted April 15, 2006 Nice story, but I feel very sure of one thing: when we look back at the players who were available at #8 in this draft two, three, or four years from now, we will not consider Ngata the best of them. I'm not confident of his ability or work ethic or devotion to football. I don't see a lot of talk about football, high energy, excitement, and the times I've seen him personally he hasn't seemed to do much other than be big. Big is good, but not enough. If we pick him, I will change my tune and become a big Ngata fan, because I'm an optimist and loyal fan (other than Holcomb), but I really hope he isn't our pick right now. 662439[/snapback] Good post, except for the part about Holcomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PortlandBillsFan Posted April 15, 2006 Share Posted April 15, 2006 I get that the Bills want to rotate their D-line, but who exactly are we going to rotate in? Anderson? Sape? I'm not comfortable with either of these guys being key parts of a rotation at DT. Tripplett was a solid pickup, but it's going to take a lot more than that to solve our run defense problems. Also remember that Haloti played every down at Oregon, not just run downs. If he is rotating in and out, his endurance issues become less of a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted April 15, 2006 Share Posted April 15, 2006 I get that the Bills want to rotate their D-line, but who exactly are we going to rotate in? Anderson? Sape? I'm not comfortable with either of these guys being key parts of a rotation at DT. Tripplett was a solid pickup, but it's going to take a lot more than that to solve our run defense problems. Also remember that Haloti played every down at Oregon, not just run downs. If he is rotating in and out, his endurance issues become less of a factor. 662792[/snapback] There are good second and third round DT prospects as well. Nobody said we're not going to draft DT at all, just that it doesn't seem to be a wise investment to draft Ngata at #8 overall (or Bunkley either for that matter). You hope to get a star at that point in the draft, and he's very risky. There are going to be less risky prospects available at that spot. Again, I don't like Bunkley either and would prefer that we not draft DT in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oregonmark Posted April 15, 2006 Author Share Posted April 15, 2006 There are good second and third round DT prospects as well. Nobody said we're not going to draft DT at all, just that it doesn't seem to be a wise investment to draft Ngata at #8 overall (or Bunkley either for that matter). You hope to get a star at that point in the draft, and he's very risky. There are going to be less risky prospects available at that spot. Again, I don't like Bunkley either and would prefer that we not draft DT in the first round. 662803[/snapback] Who is the slam dunk star that you would draft in this position that fills a need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PortlandBillsFan Posted April 15, 2006 Share Posted April 15, 2006 I guess I'm just tired of us drafting guys like Anderson, Sape, Edwards and Bannan later in the draft and hoping they work out. Ngata is the best DT prospect in the draft, and this is our biggest position of need. I will say that although I wouldn't be disappointed if we took Haloti at 8, ideally we could trade down and still get Ngata, Bunkley or Justice as picking these guys at 8 is a bit of a reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted April 15, 2006 Share Posted April 15, 2006 Who is the slam dunk star that you would draft in this position that fills a need? 662807[/snapback] Nobody is slam dunk but there are certainly players like Davis, Huff, or Justice who don't have the injury history, lack of effort history, positional bust history, or body type bust hisotry that Ngata has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted April 15, 2006 Share Posted April 15, 2006 I guess I'm just tired of us drafting guys like Anderson, Sape, Edwards and Bannan later in the draft and hoping they work out. Ngata is the best DT prospect in the draft, and this is our biggest position of need. I will say that although I wouldn't be disappointed if we took Haloti at 8, ideally we could trade down and still get Ngata, Bunkley or Justice as picking these guys at 8 is a bit of a reach. 662810[/snapback] Who said anything about late in the draft??? If the Bills don't go DT in round 1, I'm quite sure they are going to draft a DT in the second round and probably one in the third round as well (since we have two picks in the third). Trust me, the DT talent is deep this year, especially for one-gappers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted April 15, 2006 Share Posted April 15, 2006 I'm also pretty confident that he is NOT going to be the best DT in this draft, at least not for the team that drafts him. It's just as likely that he's going to get injured, fat, or unmotivated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 16, 2006 Share Posted April 16, 2006 Nobody is slam dunk but there are certainly players like Davis, Huff, or Justice who don't have the injury history, lack of effort history, positional bust history, or body type bust hisotry that Ngata has. 662815[/snapback] Ngata worked his nads off to come back from a serious knee injury and this is turned around 180 degrees as a negative. Also, it is far more likely that a lineman will not be a bust than other positions, especially QB, yet this gets flipped on its head as well. Mike Williams wasn't a bust because of the position he played or his massive size. He was a bust because he lacked drive, ambition, and work ethic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted April 16, 2006 Share Posted April 16, 2006 Ngata worked his nads off to come back from a serious knee injury and this is turned around 180 degrees as a negative. Also, it is far more likely that a lineman will not be a bust than other positions, especially QB, yet this gets flipped on its head as well. Mike Williams wasn't a bust because of the position he played or his massive size. He was a bust because he lacked drive, ambition, and work ethic. 663072[/snapback] I don't care if he worked his nads off to recover from his knee injury. He still has a rebuilt knee and a history of nagging injuries. All things being equal, would you rather have a player with a clean history of health, or a player who has torn an ACL and is constantly bothered by some injury? Thought so. Yes, there are a lot of busts at QB, same with DT. Oh, and guess what? Some are questioning whether Ngata has the drive/ambition/work ethic as well based on his taking plays off in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of BiB Posted April 16, 2006 Share Posted April 16, 2006 I don't care if he worked his nads off to recover from his knee injury. He still has a rebuilt knee and a history of nagging injuries. All things being equal, would you rather have a player with a clean history of health, or a player who has torn an ACL and is constantly bothered by some injury? Thought so. Yes, there are a lot of busts at QB, same with DT. Oh, and guess what? Some are questioning whether Ngata has the drive/ambition/work ethic as well based on his taking plays off in college. 663090[/snapback] Give it up. It's the new shiny toy theory vs. objective thought. I keep looking at one decent year. In college. A lot of college players never see the NFL. Why? Because they are college competition. If the pick for needs crowd really wants to pick for need, trade down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cantankerous Posted April 16, 2006 Share Posted April 16, 2006 Ozy...you keep harping on Ngata having a rebuilt knee. Well it seems to me nowadays rebuilt knees are stronger than before injuries. Medical technology is amazing these days...what makes you think Ngata's knee is such a liability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted April 16, 2006 Share Posted April 16, 2006 Ozy...you keep harping on Ngata having a rebuilt knee. Well it seems to me nowadays rebuilt knees are stronger than before injuries. Medical technology is amazing these days...what makes you think Ngata's knee is such a liability? 663110[/snapback] I guess opinions can vary on whether the knee is stronger now (personally I still prefer the uncut knee to the cut knee) but I don't think either of us is in a position to judge that. What concerns me more is that he tore the knee in the first place. He's injury prone. When he came back from the knee injury in 2004, he was then slowed for a huge chunk of the season by a nagging hamstring injury. And then this past year, he was hobbled late in the season by an ankle sprain. Then, in his bowl game, he was forced to leave the game due to a knee sprain (and sidenote: Oregon started playing better without him in there.) Notice how all these injuries are lower body. It's always a concern with a guy this big -- does he have the ligaments and tendons to support that kind of weight? If we draft him, is he always going to be playing at 80% due to some nagging injury? When is the next ACL tear going to occur? Bunkley tore his knee twice, for example (the same knee, btw, so maybe it does NOT get stronger). I would just hate to take on an injury risk at the #8 overall pick. I like the fact that he will play through injuries (except, of course, when the ligament is completely torn), but if he's consistently slowed by injuries, his value drops dramatically. Maybe that's why he seems so sluggish sometimes, he's injured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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