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Afghanistan, 2 steps forward, 1 back.


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Didn't you hear, Iraq is now the center of the war on terrorism, Afganistan is just a side note. So what if Afganistan still has repressive warlords and mullahs who are profiting from poppy crops that are in greater quantities than when the Taliban ruled. When we win in Iraq, Afganistan and other Muslim countries will see the error of their ways and embrace democracy. Just be patient. Bush said so, so it must be true.

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Yeah, so what.  What does that have to do with international terrorism?

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Since it's been brought up, I think the UN initiative to grow legal opium there is a good one, and probably needs more support.

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Sounds like the judge and prosecutor are looking for some way to avoid their archaic law by calling him insane.  Either way, it looks like he is toast.

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Goes to further illustrate the difficulties in trying to change the form of governance in the ME. I suspect that this was considered by the Admin before they went into Iraq, and maybe it was thought that Iraq being essentially secular under Sadaam, it would be easier to institue westernized-democratic reforms. But, nationalism took a second seat to sectarianism.

 

Taliban led Afghansistan simply had to be brought down. I don't think anyone had any real illusions that the entire country could be united and brought under control anyway. It hasn't ever been that way, has been at war for 25 years.

 

Everyone needs to get it in their heads that "Democracy" in the ME can work, but is going to look very, very different than our ideals. I really doubt that very much of the power base there cares about a democratic process just as long as Mullahs get elected.

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This is very much like early Christians and the Roman empire. If this guy is not just using this conversion to "get out of the country", he will go down as a martyr for Christians worldwide. This guy as such will meet God sooner then the rest of us, and will be happy for a long time. If however deep down he doesn't and he is using it as the excuse I said, then he will get what he deserves.

 

That said, Bush and crew ought to keep out of it, other then to say, "It is a sad" situation, and let the local Afghan government handle it.

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Goes to further illustrate the difficulties in trying to change the form of governance in the ME. I suspect that this was considered by the Admin before they went into Iraq, and maybe it was thought that Iraq being essentially secular under Sadaam, it would be easier to institue westernized-democratic reforms. But, nationalism took a second seat to sectarianism.

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I don't think the Administration really thought much at all. From what I've read, they thought they were going to have 30,000 or fewer troops in Iraq by the by September 2003. The only reason Iraq was secular was because Saddam repressed fundamentalists. The fact that sectarianism took hold is hardly surprising. Tribalism is at play in virtually every country in the ME.

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I don't think the Administration really thought much at all.  From what I've read, they thought they were going to have 30,000 or fewer troops in Iraq by the by September 2003.  The only reason Iraq was secular was because Saddam repressed fundamentalists.  The fact that sectarianism took hold is hardly surprising.  Tribalism is at play in virtually every country in the ME.

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I've always thought it wise to have a fully developed plan, with alternates for those types of occassions - but then again, I'm a professional warplanner. Those that initially laid out the program for this particular outing weren't. I think they thought about it, and misread. I can understand why they might have thouht that way. I'm sure it's a big surprise to many that a lot of women who could wear pants suits under Sadaam are now covered head to foot with their faces covered.

 

I separate this from the initial invasion too. As I've said before, I've seen most of the original intelligence regarding both WMD and ties to non-state terrorism. Everyone can argue whatever they want, but at the time it didn't look very pretty.

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I've always thought it wise to have a fully developed plan, with alternates for those types of occassions - but then again, I'm a professional warplanner. Those that initially laid out the program for this particular outing weren't. I think they thought about it, and misread. I can understand why they might have thouht that way.

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I don't give them a pass. They had professional war planners who told them otherwise. Those professional war planners were either fired, Shinseki, or beaten into submission to drink the kool aid, Franks. It is no surprise that the only professional war planner high in the administration, Powell, was the most reluctant person to sign onto the program.

 

I'm sure it's a big surprise to many that a lot of women who could wear pants suits under Sadaam are now covered head to foot with their faces covered.

 

Maybe a surprise to the Days of Our Lives/American Idol crowd but those in the Administration should have had time to resarch the issue and know better.

 

separate this from the initial invasion too. As I've said before, I've seen most of the original intelligence regarding both WMD and ties to non-state terrorism. Everyone can argue whatever they want, but at the time it didn't look very pretty.

 

I thought the weapons inspectors debunked so much of the intelligence that the major conclusions were highly suspect.

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I've always thought it wise to have a fully developed plan, with alternates for those types of occassions - but then again, I'm a professional warplanner. Those that initially laid out the program for this particular outing weren't. I think they thought about it, and misread. I can understand why they might have thouht that way. I'm sure it's a big surprise to many that a lot of women who could wear pants suits under Sadaam are now covered head to foot with their faces covered.

 

I separate this from the initial invasion too. As I've said before, I've seen most of the original intelligence regarding both WMD and ties to non-state terrorism. Everyone can argue whatever they want, but at the time it didn't look very pretty.

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I heard the same thing back then from folks in the know about the intelligence, however, there was a lot of doubt about the validity of it and the depth of it. A lot of folks just questioned the assets and the political motivations of the assets. There was so few and a lot of doubts, not enough concrete evidence either way. Should've made everyone pause and suspect some sort of setup.

 

The rest is history, even I could see the difficulty of dealing with the tribal b.s., Afghanistan should have given us some kinda of indicator.

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I don't give them a pass. They had professional war planners who told them otherwise. Those professional war planners were either fired, Shinseki, or beaten into submission to drink the kool aid, Franks. It is no surprise that the only professional war planner high in the administration, Powell, was the most reluctant person to sign onto the program.

 

I don't doubt that, and wouldn't argue with it. I don't agree with your interpretation of Franks.

 

When I say "warplanner" - I'm not really referring to Generals or even military. It is an actual professional specialty that one doesn't see on Monster.com very often.

 

I don't know that Shinseki or Powell ever went through a career cycle where they worked as an actual planner. Actual planners rarely become Generals, as that particular rank can interfere with the desired Command assignments for the general officer ticket punch. If you want to be a general, it's probably better to be a succesfull combat arms battalion commander than to be a staff weinie. When they do their upper echelon staff cycles in the planner's world, they are more in the realm of reviewing and coordinating plans. Somewhere at the 0-7/0-8 level. I'm also separating operational planning at the Division or below level from the more strategic planning at the COCOM or above. Division and below planning is tactical.

 

There was a time where the Army had an actual progression with an eye on planning, including formal schooling and training. I don't know about the other services. That went away several years ago. Now, career managers for the services make choices and send people where ever, 05/06. Many 05/06 planners realize that's their last career stop. It's the luck of the draw whether one gets someone in that understands planning or not.

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I don't doubt that, and wouldn't argue with it. I don't agree with your interpretation of Franks.

 

When I say "warplanner" - I'm not really referring to Generals or even military. It is an actual professional specialty that one doesn't see on Monster.com very often.

 

I don't know that Shinseki or Powell ever went through a career cycle where they worked as an actual planner. Actual planners rarely become Generals, as that particular rank can interfere with the desired Command assignments for the general officer ticket punch. If you want to be a general, it's probably better to be a succesfull combat arms battalion commander than to be a staff weinie. When they do their upper echelon staff cycles in the planner's world, they are more in the realm of reviewing and coordinating plans. Somewhere at the 0-7/0-8 level. I'm also separating operational planning at the Division or below level from the more strategic planning at the COCOM or above. Division and below planning is tactical.

 

There was a time where the Army had an actual progression with an eye on planning, including formal schooling and training. I don't know about the other services. That went away several years ago. Now, career managers for the services make choices and send people where ever, 05/06. Many 05/06 planners realize that's their last career stop. It's the luck of the draw whether one gets someone in that understands planning or not.

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Thanks for the insight, explains a lot about current policy and results. Military should reconsider or make at least make a short term stop over mandatory for the career ladder.

 

Interesting about Powell, he just seems wise beyond his military training and unfortunately tired of dealing with political b.s. Can understand it though after going through the military b.s. all these years, why should he want to get used to b.s. that only smells different and relentlessly keeps on spewing.

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I don't doubt that, and wouldn't argue with it. I don't agree with your interpretation of Franks.

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In what sense?

 

I don't know that Shinseki or Powell ever went through a career cycle where they worked as an actual planner.

 

Maybe not, but it appears they had a better sense of what was required than those who are "planners".

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Thanks for the insight, explains a lot about current policy and results.  Military should  reconsider or make at least make a short term stop over mandatory for the career ladder.

 

Interesting about Powell, he just seems wise beyond his military training and unfortunately tired of dealing with political b.s.  Can understand it though after going through the military b.s. all these years, why should he want to get used to b.s. that only smells different and relentlessly keeps on spewing.

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Don't tempt me, Scraps didn't get it.

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