Why I think Texas will win

[Chilly]

**Before I start, I'd like to credit AP News Articles, yahoo.com, and hornfans.com for the statistics in this post, as well as some of the analysis that I agree with and didn't feel like retyping.**

 

First, lets start with a Special Teams comparison between the two schools, which I feel is Texas' biggest advantage.

 

USC is 115th in net punting out of 117 teams in the country. They don't have to punt very often, but then again the Pac 10 hasn't been known for their defenses either. When USC will have to punt, Texas will have a huge advantage, as they are the #6 team in the nation in punt returns.

 

Texas is #37 nationally in net punting, and we've faced Ginn Jr returning punts. USC's punt return unit is only #65 in the country, and this is while featuring Reggie Bush as the punt returner.

 

USC’s opponents average 20.6 yards on KO returns, making them the #63 kick coverage team nationally. This is actually a big improvement statistically as they gave up only 57 yards on 7 kicks (8.1 avg) vs UCLA. Of course, they did that by kicking very short to the upbacks every time and the Bruins’ avg field position was beyond the 35 and most kicks were fielded outside the 30. USC improved so much they would have been better off kicking out of bounds (which they also did once). They started doing that in the 2nd half of the Fresno St game after being burned on a big run back. What is actually happening is that their coverage team is so bad they have given up on trying to cover deep kicks. They are trying to hide their weakness with sky kicks that are so short they are almost pooch kicks. Their coaches apparently would rather concede the 35 than risk a big return and that should tell you something. Our upbacks need to be ready. USC has not given up a TD return although they did give up a 92 yarder. Van Blarcom has forced 28 touchbacks (in 103 attempts or 27.2%) but has also kicked 6 out of bounds.

 

UT’s opponents are averaging 19.0 yards per kick return, ranking us #35. We’ve forced 29 touchbacks in 106 attempts for 27.4% with 4 kicks out of bounds.

 

Big advantage to Texas on kickoffs.

 

As far as returning kicks go?

 

USC is #30 in the nation in kickoff returns. USC averages 22.2 yards per kick return. No KR for TD this year but pretty darn solid. Reggie Bush is their headliner here as well, with 23 of the 36 returns but only averaging 17.0 per return. Oddly, both Darnell Bing (4 returns) and Desmond Reed (5) have had longer run backs and higher averages than Bush. This is USC’s best special teams unit.

 

Texas, however, ranks #3 in kickoff returns in the nation, averaging 26.9 yards. Except for up-man Ahmard Hall (walk-on FB with one return), all of the Longhorn’s return men have a better average than Bush.

 

Lets move on to what the Trojans do defensively.

 

The Trojan's Run Defense is going to be their biggest weakness in this game.

 

The Trojans’ base defense is a standard 4-3, with situational use of nickel. When they add a DB, the alignment goes to 4-2-5. They play pretty straight up defense, rarely stunting the linebackers and safeties. Since their pass D relies heavily on zone, they cannot afford for those defenders to be that far out of position if the play turns out to be a pass. They do like to turn their ends loose, especially on passing downs, but this is not a big risk as the backers play sound behind them and keep contain. Line stunts are used almost exclusively in obvious passing downs.

 

Against most opponents, USC has had a huge talent advantage so it’s been easy for them to play textbook D. DTs engage the interior OL while DEs contain; LBs scrape, fill and make the tackle in the hole. That will be hard to do against Texas, which features a dominant OLine and multiple breakaway runners in the backfield simultaneously. The Trojan D is well coached and makes few mistakes. Their strengths are at DE and SS. Their (relative) weaknesses are at CB, DT and lack of depth at every position except LB. They will get worn down if forced to stay on the field a long time, especially the DL.

 

Let’s look at the results. USC was #24 against the run, #29 on a per-carry basis at 3.45 yards, a pretty solid performance. But, every good RB they faced hurt them if there was also a credible passing threat. UCLA’s Maurice Drew averaged 6.0 yards on 14 carries. Cal’s Marshawn Lynch ran for 6.7 per on 13 carries. WSU’s Jerome Harrison gouged them for a 7.0 average on 21 carries. Unless, they can load up against the run, good opposing backs have gotten their yards. Even Darren McFadden of one-dimensional Arkansas averaged 6.8 yards on 13 carries. Unfortunately for the opponents, most of them were playing from behind and could not commit to a sustained running attack. It seems that USC’s defensive front is built with emphasis on getting pressure on the QB more than stopping the run.

 

The USC defense is solid against the run but not spectacular. Good running teams can hurt them and Texas is by far the best running team they have played. They give up few big plays but also make few TFL. The quickness of their DEs will result in some pressure but that can be exploited as they run themselves out of position. They lack quality depth on the line and in the secondary. If Texas can sustain drives and run effectively early, the Trojan DL is in real trouble. At LB they have some young playmakers who also will make mistakes and more experienced but less talented guys. SC doesn’t like to take chances on defense but we may force them to by getting a push on their DTs. If we can make them stunt the backers and/or safeties, more big plays will become available and we also get them out of their comfort zone. That would force them to play more man coverage then they like and are used to. They won’t give up a lot of easy yards, but yards (and the Trojans) can be had.

 

Now, a look at USC's passing defense

 

USC generally uses a base 4-3 defensive alignment, with a 4-2-5 nickel as the primary alternative. The Trojans unveiled a 3-3-5 nickel package against Fresno but they had not shown that package (at least not extensively) in previous action. This may have been an attempt to get more speed on the field and take advantage of their greater depth at LB, but once the Bulldogs demonstrated their ability to run the ball against it, SC returned to a 4-man front.

 

The linebackers usually line up 5 yards off the LOS, though they sometime move up into the gaps between the DL. Most commonly, the SAM will line up on the TE to keep him from getting off the line cleanly. From their deep position, the LBs can read and react vs the run or drop into coverage quickly. USC also likes to keep their safeties back in a cover 2 shell to back up the underneath zone, although sometimes they will bring the SS closer to the LOS. The CBs usually play 5-8 yards off the ball, rarely if ever coming up to press or bump the receivers. From there, they can either stick around to cover the flats or drop in deep coverage.

 

How will this change vs Vince Young?

 

Versus Vince, they will have to use Bing in Cover 3 as a spy or a MLB as a spy. This will soften up the middle of the defense. I think this will be a big reason why Texas will be successful against USC's defense. If Texas is successful, this will cause USC to start to take chances and gamble on defense, which is what they tend to do when they are in trouble (a la versus Notre Dame).

 

Overall

 

Theres no question, that even with Texas having the #4 ranked defense in the country, USC is going to score a lot of points. The key, though, is how Texas' #1 ranked scoring offense in the country will perform against USC.

 

I think we match up pretty well against the Trojan's defense. We have a largely balanced attack with the best running game that they've faced all year. We will be able to hurt USC on the ground, and if they press that, then through the air.

 

The key will be for Vince Young to recognize when USC is in a 2-deep zone versus a 3-deep zone. USC gets the majority of their turnovers from switching between the two and having QBs make their mistakes.

 

USC's defense isn't great - they play a bend, but don't break style that relies on opportunistic turnovers. You can score on them, and given the matchups, I believe the combination of Texas' extremely large advantage on Special Teams (by the way, they've blocked 40 kicks since 2000, the most in college) and the matchup advantage of the Texas offense versus the USC defense will give us the win.

 

Texas 45-42.

[KD in CA]

plus.....you're a total homer.

 

 

Good luck to TX....I'd root for any team to keep Pete Carroll from winning another one.

[Chilly]

plus.....you're a total homer. 

Good luck to TX....I'd root for any team to keep Pete Carroll from winning another one.

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[smokinandjokin]

It should be a good game, but I think USC will win because:

 

- Texas has made a habit of losing big games in their recent history. A very gutsy win in the Rose Bowl last year may have gotten them out of their funk, but they have consistently come up short against Oklahoma recently when it really mattered. I question what Mack Brown had to do with that. Texas had Cedric Benson last year, along with many of the same players on this year's team, and they couldn't beat Oklahoma.

 

- Recently, the Big 12 champ has been unable to compete in a BCS title game after rolling through the regular season undefeated. (2004- Oklahoma loses 55-19; 2003- Oklahoma loses 21-14, AND conference champ Kansas State loses 35-28; 2001- Nebraska loses 37-14 AND Colorado loses 38-16.) In two of those years, 2003 Oklahoma and 2001 Nebraska, those teams were undefeated going into the conference title game and were blown out, and yet still backed in to the big one.

 

- It is a virtual home game for USC.

 

- Pete Carroll has a month to prepare a scheme for Vince Young. He is known as a defensive coach, and brings the NFL mentality of game-plannig to take away what a team does best, and forces them to find a different way to win. Stoops looked dumbfounded last year as USC shut down both Adrian Peterson and Jason White, which didn't seem feasible before the game.

 

- I am not sure there is any way to stop Reggie Bush. Even if you are fully committed to stopping the run, Leinart to Jarrett and Smith can be lethal.

 

USC scores at least 38, Texas scores no more than 27. USC (-7.5) covers.

[Spun]

USC better not take Texas lightly. Vince Young can hurt with the run and the pass and the Texas defense is legitimate.

[smokinandjokin]

USC better not take Texas lightly.  Vince Young can hurt with the run and the pass and the Texas defense is legitimate.

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Texas is 12-0 and has been chomping at USC's heels all season. It's for a national championship. I don't think anyone takes anyone lightly at this point. I'm pretty sure they know that Vince Young can run and pass also. But if they didn't, your scouting report just broke the news!

[Chilly]

- Texas has made a habit of losing big games in their recent history.  A very gutsy win in the Rose Bowl last year may have gotten them out of their funk, but they have consistently come up short against Oklahoma recently when it really mattered.  I question what Mack Brown had to do with that.  Texas had Cedric Benson last year, along with many of the same players on this year's team, and they couldn't beat Oklahoma.

 

Yet, this year they beat Ohio State @ Ohio State, as well as beating Oklahoma soundly.

 

- Recently, the Big 12 champ has been unable to compete in a BCS title game after rolling through the regular season undefeated.  (2004- Oklahoma loses 55-19; 2003- Oklahoma loses 21-14, AND conference champ Kansas State loses 35-28; 2001- Nebraska loses 37-14 AND Colorado loses 38-16.)  In two of those years, 2003 Oklahoma and 2001 Nebraska, those teams were undefeated going into the conference title game and were blown out, and yet still backed in to the big one.

 

While your trends are correct, I really don't put too much stock into past performance of a conference to indicate performance of a current team in a bowl game.

 

- It is a virtual home game for USC.

 

Its a concern, but not enough to tip the game in USC's favor in my opinion. *points again to the game @ Ohio State*

 

- Pete Carroll has a month to prepare a scheme for Vince Young.  He is known as a defensive coach, and brings the NFL mentality of game-plannig to take away what a team does best, and forces them to find a different way to win.  Stoops looked dumbfounded last year as USC shut down both Adrian Peterson and Jason White, which didn't seem feasible before the game.

 

See above for why it won't happen. Also, even though Gene Chizik has had 2 of the best defenses in the country the past 2 years, has a month to prepare the Texas defense, and he has faced the USC offense a couple times with Leinart.

 

I also don't think Chizik will shutdown USC's offense either.

 

- I am not sure there is any way to stop Reggie Bush.  Even if you are fully committed to stopping the run, Leinart to Jarrett and Smith can be lethal.

 

And I am not sure there is anyway to stop Vince Young and the #1 scoring offense in the country. Texas has a stable of running backs in Charles, Taylor, Melton, and Selvin Young, who are all great running backs. USC has had problems stopping the run, and if they commit a spy to Vince, they will have problems slowing down the passing game.

[buckeyemike]

I've said it before,

 

I'll say it again.

 

USC is at least 4 touchdowns better than Texas.

 

Trojans, 56-28.

 

Mike

[Chilly]

I've said it before,

 

I'll say it again.

 

USC is at least 4 touchdowns better than Texas.

 

Trojans, 56-28.

 

Mike

550209[/snapback]

 

I've said it before,

 

I'll say it again.

 

You're wrong.