Beating the Patriots

[Pac_Man]

I've been paying close attention to the Patriots, because the road to the Super Bowl goes through New England. During the Pittsburgh game, the announcers showed a stat about how QBs did when they faced Belichick twice in the same year. The average QB did a LOT worse the second time around.

 

Take Peyton Manning. In his first 2004 meeting with the Patriots, he nearly led his team to victory. In the second meeting, the Indy offense scored just three points. Rothlisberger is another example: he had a good game against the Patriots during the regular season, but played like a rookie in that playoff game. The point here is that it's really going to be hard to win the year's second game against the Patriots by relying on the passing game. By the same token, it would be really tough to beat them in the playoffs by using our passing game.

 

That's why we need a strong running game as the foundation for our offense. We have the beginning of a strong running game in the form of Willis McGahee. But one man is not a running game. I once saw Barry Sanders get held to -3 yards for the entire day, because his offensive line got outplayed by the other team's front 8. The other team was playing against the run; and daring the Lions to pass. In the second meeting between the Bills and the Patriots; the Patriots also respected the run a lot more than the pass; resulting in a poor day for McGahee. I don't blame McGahee: his line gave him less daylight to run to than you'd typically see at a vampire convention.

 

In the game between the Steelers and the Patriots, the Patriots put a lot of men into the box to stop the run. The Steelers had success running the ball anyway; and used their running game to put up a lot of points. Had it not been for all those turnovers, the Steelers might well have won that game. Even as it was, the Steelers with their run-oriented offense put up a lot more points than the Colt's pass-oriented offense did the previous week.

 

The Steelers were only successful in running the ball because they combined a dominant running back with possibly the best run-blocking offensive line in the league. With that kind of brute force at the Steelers' disposal; it didn't matter as much how smart Belichick was. You're not going to beat Belichick by outsmarting him, so you may as well beat him by ramming the ball down his throat.

 

That's why the Bills need to use their first day picks, plus whatever they get from Travis Henry, on their offensive line. The Bills need to get a LT, LG, and a dominant, run-blocking C. One NFL personnel man said this could be the deepest and best draft ever for centers, so it would be foolish to let that opportunity pass us by. Assuming the Bills use the first day picks and the Henry picks on offensive linemen, our line might become as good as that of the Steelers. TD has only found two permanent offensive line starters via the Bills' draft. Both came on the first day.

 

With a dominant offensive line in place, the Bills could ram the ball down the Patriots' throats with McGahee. Every so often, Losman could attempt a 40 yard pass to Evans. Even if the pass gets picked off, it's no worse than a 40-yard punt. But only by putting ALL the big three picks (the first day picks and the Henry pick/player) will the Bills be able to take control of the game with their running attack. They must ignore TE on the first day of the draft. They must ignore DL. And they CERTAINLY must ignore the kicker position on the draft's first day.

[Thurman's Helmet]

Getting 3 stud O-Linemen in the draft and bringing them up to speed regarding the Pats D is a tall order especially with a new untested QB stepping in.

 

Can you say 8 in the box?

[The Jokeman]

Getting 3 stud O-Linemen in the draft and bringing them up to speed regarding the Pats D is a tall order especially with a new untested QB stepping in.   

 

Can you say 8 in the box?

289450[/snapback]

In terms of the beating the Patriots, their D-line sports 3 first round draft picks in Seymour, Warren and Wilfolk all of which are under 30.

 

You bring up a good point, I think we're going to see plenty of 8 in the box until JP can prove he can beat some teams with his arm. As a result we could see McGahee struggle to reproduce his numbers from this past season.

[AKC]

I think of an effective OLine as a little more complicated unit- no doubt we want power inside with a RB like Willis but it's important to maintain some versatility. If you plug another power run blocker in between to power OGs you really limit the things you can do on the edges and how you get defensed. The running offense we played last year asked a lot of our center to get outside and seal, and Teague was very effective at doing that. He has a good feel for moving through traffic and then he's flexible enough to get around for a block on a quicker and smaller player. On his right side you have a more classic power blocking OG in Villarial, someone who will work his butt off to pull all the way to the other side yet he just doesn't have the range of motion of a Trey Teague to finish in space. If we're able to address the LG spot with a big body with good run blocking skills at the LOS we are probably better served, at least if we play a similar offense to last years, in having one interior lineman who excels on the go. That could leave Trey Teague in a pretty safe spot on the depth chart.

[Pac_Man]

Getting 3 stud O-Linemen in the draft and bringing them up to speed regarding the Pats D is a tall order especially with a new untested QB stepping in.   

 

Can you say 8 in the box?

289450[/snapback]

Beating the Patriots will be tough, and there's nothing we can do to make it easy. One of the offensive linemen could be Shelton, so we'd only have two rookies on the line. Don't forget that with McNally as the offensive line coach, rookies should be able to get up to speed a little faster than they ordinarily could.

 

I admit that it will really be tough to beat the Patriots with a first year starter at QB, regardless of what we do or don't do on the o-line. But drafting good offensive linemen this year will lay the foundation for offensive success against the Patriots in 2006.

[Pac_Man]

I think of an effective OLine as a little more complicated unit- no doubt we want power inside with a RB like Willis but it's important to maintain some versatility. If you plug another power run blocker in between to power OGs you really limit the things you can do on the edges and how you get defensed. The running offense we played last year asked a lot of our center to get outside and seal, and Teague was very effective at doing that. He has a good feel for moving through traffic and then he's flexible enough to get around for a block on a quicker and smaller player. On his right side you have a more classic power blocking OG in Villarial, someone who will work his butt off to pull all the way to the other side yet he just doesn't have the range of motion of a Trey Teague to finish in space. If we're able to address the LG spot with a big body with good run blocking skills at the LOS we are probably better served, at least if we play a similar offense to last years, in having one interior lineman who excels on the go. That could leave Trey Teague in a pretty safe spot on the depth chart.

289461[/snapback]

I agree with a lot of this post, but I don't see Teague as having the physical strength to engage big and powerful DT's on an equal footing.

[AKC]

I don't see Teague as having the physical strength to engage big and powerful DT's on an equal footing.

289481[/snapback]

 

If you run through the OCs in the league you'll only find about 3 or 4 who are capable of holding their own with any regularity against quality interior linemen. Consequently few teams even ask their OC to hold singles against DTs. One exception we get to see a lot of is Kevin Mawae, one of the best in the league and one of the only OCs trusted to single teams, especially in pass protection, against better DTs. Would it be great to sign Mawae- sure, it's just not going to happen and even if a drafted OC becomes one of these exceptions to the rule it will almost surely take him 3 seasons to get competent at all the other duties associated with the position including making line calls and improving dramatically the speed in which he gets off his snap and up into his block from the far less demanding college game. The bottom line on OCs is simply that we're like most teams, and even most good teams, in that we've got a center who requires some protection from his sides and shouldn't be left alone regularly against any of the top 30-35 DTs in the league. The plus we have with Teague is that he at least offers us very good flexibility off the snap in our run game. I beleive the team likes him a lot and feels he's a big contributor, especially on the edge where they like to bounce Willis outside his blocks and really force defenses to play their linebackers and DB help wide- giving Willis more breathing room when he does go inside.

[Pac_Man]

If you run through the OCs in the league you'll only find about 3 or 4 who are capable of holding their own with any regularity against quality interior linemen. Consequently few teams even ask their OC to hold singles against DTs. One exception we get to see a lot of is Kevin Mawae, one of the best in the league and one of the only OCs trusted to single teams, especially in pass protection, against better DTs. Would it be great to sign Mawae- sure, it's just not going to happen and even if a drafted OC becomes one of these exceptions to the rule it will almost surely take him 3 seasons to get competent at all the other duties associated with the position including making line calls and improving dramatically the speed in which he gets off his snap and up into his block from the far less demanding college game. The bottom line on OCs is simply that we're like most teams, and even most good teams, in that we've got a center who requires some protection from his sides and shouldn't be left alone regularly against any of the top 30-35 DTs in the league. The plus we have with Teague is that he at least offers us very good flexibility off the snap in our run game. I beleive the team likes him a lot and feels he's a big contributor, especially on the edge where they like to bounce Willis outside his blocks and really force defenses to play their linebackers and DB help wide- giving Willis more breathing room when he does go inside.

289495[/snapback]

The problem with Teague is that he's one-dimensional. Sure, he's athletic, but if your line is well-suited to running the ball outside, but not between the tackles, guess what the defense is going to defend? We'd be better off with a center who combines Teague's mobility with raw power. That way we could force the defense to respect both the inside run and the outside.

 

I don't think it would take 3 - 4 years to get a rookie center up to speed, especially not with McNally as the o-line coach. If we drafted a guy this year and started him next year, that would be okay by me.