Dibs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hi all, This is the 3rd in a series of threads where I will be breaking down past drafts by individual position. QBs here: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155235-drafting-success-qb/ LBs here: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155307-drafting-success-lb/ I do this for my own curiosity….and hope you find it of interest as well. Every year, fans & media talk about the draft in relation to plugging holes of weakness on a team. The assumption tends to be that any player drafted in the 1st(particularly high picks), 2nd, 3rd and sometimes 4th round will solve the problems of that team at the given position. I will be endeavouring to ascertain the likelihood of teams actually achieving this for each position. I will be using strict unbiased criteria to avoid personal opinion affecting the results. The criteria I am setting for a player to be considered to “plug a hole” of need is: (Starter) Having played as a starter for the drafting team(12+ starts) for 5+ seasons. I am also determining Stars: 4+ Pro Bowls for the drafting team. And also for a bit of fun am denoting the number of players that achieve 1+ Pro Bowls for the drafting team. I will be breaking the draft up into rounds 1, 2, 3, 4/5, 6/7, as well as breaking the 1st round into 5 sections. #1, #2-#4, #5-#10, #11-#20 & #21-#32. Round 2 will consist of players from #33 to end of round 2. The data pool will be selected from 20 years of drafts from 1986 – 2005. This ensures all draftees have a full 8 years of NFL experience to achieve my benchmarks. (Rounded to the nearest percent) Wide Receivers Round 1 85 players selected 13 Stars 15% (1 in 6.5) 22 Starters 26% (1 in 3.9) 23 probowlers 27% (1 in 3.7) R1 Pick 1 1 player selected 0 Stars 0 Starters 1 probowlers 100% (1 in 1) R1 Picks 2-4 7 players selected 2 Stars 29% (1 in 3.5) 2 Starters 29% (1 in 3.5) 3 probowlers 43% (1 in 2.3) R1 Picks 5-10 18 players selected 4 Stars 22% (1 in 4.5) 5 Starters 28% (1 in 3.6) 7 probowlers 39% (1 in 2.6) R1 Picks 11-20 24 players selected 3 Stars 13% (1 in 8) 5 Starters 21% (1 in 4.8) 5 probowlers 21% (1 in 4.8) R1 Picks 21-32 35 players selected 4 Stars 11% (1 in 8.8) 10 Starters 29% (1 in 3.5) 7 probowlers 20% (1 in 5) Round 2(from pick #33) 71 players selected 2 Stars 3% (1 in 35.5) 9 Starters 13% (1 in 7.9) 9 probowlers 13% (1 in 7.9) Round 3 75 players selected 3 Stars 4% (1 in 25) 8 Starters 11% (1 in 9.4) 8 probowlers 11% (1 in 9.4) Rounds 4/5 152 players selected 0 Stars 2 Starters 1% (1 in 76) 5 probowlers 3% (1 in 30.4) Rounds 6/7 190 players selected 0 Stars 2 Starters 1% (1 in 95) 4 probowlers 2% (1 in 47.5) Notes & Observations: In the unique situation of the Andre Rison trade, I counted him as a Falcons’ draftee in relation to the criteria used. Similar to LBs, I was quite astonished to see that the success rate for the 1st round Starters is basically the same throughout the entire round(26%). Stars however are twice as frequent in the top 10(26%) compared to the 11-32 range(12%). It should be noted that a majority of the Probowl selections in rounds 4-7 were due to special teams performance. Interestingly round 3 is comparable in success to round 2, so much so that it would behoove any team who are after a starting calibre WR to trade down from/in the 2nd round in order to pick up extra 3rd round picks to spend on the WR position. Round 4 onwards was virtually devoid of Starting WR talent. Personally I think that if you are after a starter at WR then selecting one after round 3 is tantamount to throwing the pick away. (I hear people saying…”…but Stevie Johnson!!!” to which I reply “1 in 95 chance in round 7…1 in 76 in round 4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 (edited) Wasnt Brandon Marshall a round 4 pick? He should be a star for sure. Led the league in catchs this year, and isnt a one year wonder by any means. **oops, i see how you qualify that, my bad. Edited January 31, 2013 by peterpan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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