Analysis of Chan's in-game decisions HOU vs. BUF

[tornado681]

Interesting notes include:

• Chan made the wrong decision 4 out of 10 times when considering meaningful decisions only (excluding the last 2 records in the table). So 40% of the time he made the wrong decision. As Gregg Easterbrook would say “Ye Gods”!
  
• These incorrect decisions collectively hurt Buffalo’s chance of winning by 8% when considering each decision independently.
  
• If you assume that Buffalo’s probability of winning just before kickoff was about 35% (that is, HOU is a statistically superior team), that 8% number actually can be interpreted to hurt Buffalo’s chance of winning by 23%! Math: 1-(8-35)/35. Takeaway: bad coaching decisions are magnified when a team is a strong underdog to begin with.
  

"drive #" "description" "score deficit @ time of decision" "4th down calculator decision?" "correct decision?" "impact to win probability"

1 1st quarter 4-8-BUF 44 (9:47) punt 0 punt Y n/a

2 1st quarter 4-1-BUF 35 (2:47) punt 0 GO FOR IT N -3%

3 2nd quarter 4-9-HST 18 (10:35) FG attempt -7 FG attempt Y n/a

4 2nd quarter 4-2-HST 4 (1:45) FG attempt -7 GO FOR IT N -2%

5 2nd quarter 2-16-HST 20 (:09) FG attempt -4 FG attempt* Y n/a

6 3rd quarter 4-10-BUF 26 (14:41) punt -1 punt Y n/a

7 3rd quarter 4-2-HST 21 (7:45) FG attempt -8 GO FOR IT N -2%

8 3rd quarter 4-7-BUF 23 (3:04) punt -5 punt Y n/a

9 4th quarter 4-8-BUF 33 (10:27) punt -12 GO FOR IT N -1%

10 4th quarter 4-5-BUF 35 (3:41) WENT FOR IT -12 GO FOR IT Y n/a

10 fumble; no 4th down decision -12 n/a Y n/a

11 END OF GAME; no 4th down decision -12 n/a Y n/a

 

4th down calculator source: http://wp.advancednf.../4thdncalc1.php

[BringBackFergy]

Hmmmmm....yeah, I see your point.

 

In other news, I have to hit the head.

[1B4IDie]

Not only did this decision change the outcome and decrease the chance of winning by two percent, it sent a clear message that the Buffalo Bill are not a win at any cost team. They're not in Houston and will leave everything on the field. They're there to try real hard and if they doesn't work go get a meSsage in the training room no big whoop, houston was nice.

Soft coaching, soft team.

4 2nd quarter 4-2-HST 4 (1:45) FG attempt -7 GO FOR IT N -2%