Guest RabidBillsFanVT Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Talks to Disarm Shiites Collapse By DEXTER FILKINS and ERIK ECKHOLM Published: September 1, 2004 AGHDAD, Iraq, Aug. 31 - Talks to disarm hundreds of insurgents in the roiling Sadr City ghetto in Baghdad collapsed Tuesday, after a tentative peace pact was abruptly canceled by Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. Leaders of the Mahdi Army, the rebel force led by the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, and two well-placed Iraqi sources said an agreement had been reached late Monday that called for the disarming of the rebel force and a halt in American military operations in Sadr City. Advertisement Mahdi Army commanders and other Iraqi sources said Tuesday that Dr. Allawi backed out of the agreement on Tuesday morning. The failure of negotiations raised the prospect of more violence from Mr. Sadr's Shiite insurgency, meaning the Iraqi government may not be able to direct its full political and military resources to quelling the continuing Sunni insurgency in other parts of the country. Also on Tuesday, a militant Islamic group announced a mass killing in Iraq, showing pictures of 12 dead Nepalese laborers for a Jordanian company. [Page A9.] The agreement on Monday on Sadr City, reached after several days of negotiations, had come on the heels of the withdrawal of Mr. Sadr's forces from Najaf last week after the intervention of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country's most powerful religious leader. "Last night there was a deal," said Yusef al-Nasiri, the leader of the Mahdi Army in Sadr City. "This morning there was supposed to be a press conference. But then Allawi surprised us, and he has taken us back to zero." Simultaneous news conferences scheduled by Dr. Allawi and the Mahdi Army to announce their earlier deal were called off. Mr. Nasiri said he had been told by one of the government's negotiators, Qassim Daoud, the minister of state, that Dr. Allawi had objected to the restrictions placed on Americans soldiers operating in the area. Under the agreement, the Americans would be limited to performing reconstruction work; anything more aggressive than that would require the permission of the Iraqi government. Aides to Mr. Sadr acknowledged that the agreement to disarm the militia forces had been left vague, which may also have given Dr. Allawi pause. He could not be reached for comment. An American diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said American officials were unaware of such an agreement between the Iraqi government and Mr. Sadr. But an Iraqi source said Dr. Allawi had decided to take a harsher approach toward Mr. Sadr and the Mahdi Army, possibly including the use of military force. The source said Dr. Allawi appeared to be motivated by disappointment with the agreement in Najaf, which ended the bloodshed there but left the Mahdi Army intact and made Mr. Sadr stronger than ever, in the eyes of many Iraqis. In addition, the Iraqi source said, Dr. Allawi had recently come under intense pressure from Shiite political parties that fear that the entry of Mr. Sadr into the political mainstream could diminish their own potential success at the polls. The groups include the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which was long based in Iran and which has close ties to Ayatollah Sistani, and Dawa, a prominent religious movement. Such established organizations tend to see Mr. Sadr as an upstart. The Iraqi source said it was possible that Dr. Allawi's intention was to kill or capture Mr. Sadr, in hopes of striking a death blow to his increasingly popular movement, which has the support of many poor Shiites and of 150 imams around the country. He wants to humiliate Moktada," the source said of Dr. Allawi. "He needs a victory." Another Iraqi political leader echoed those remarks, saying that the prime minister appeared to be reverting to his roots as a former member of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party, where political dissent was often silenced with the gun. "Allawi is a Baathist at heart, and he inherited all of his thoughts and behavior from them," said a senior leader of an Iraqi political party. "He is like Saddam; he has a smile on his face, but a gun in his hand to shoot you with - and he will use it." It was the second time this month that Dr. Allawi had backed out of a tentative peace deal struck by his negotiators, who are led by his national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, a Shiite political leader who is close to Ayatollah Sistani. Earlier this month, with the fighting raging in Najaf, Dr. Rubaie announced that he had struck a deal with Mr. Sadr, only to see Dr. Allawi renounce it. Advertisement Indeed, the abrupt cancellation of the agreement seemed to reveal a split within Iraq's Shiite political leadership, and even inside Dr. Allawi's government, over how to deal with the threat posed by Mr. Sadr and his legions of armed men. Several Iraqi newspapers reported this week that Dr. Rubaie intends to resign over differences with Dr. Allawi, who is a Shiite as well. Both Dr. Rubaie and Dr. Allawi have denied the strains. The differences between the two are reflected in the larger Shiite community, which has been divided on the issue of dealing with the challenge posed by the Mahdi Army. Mr. Sadr, a 30-year-old street cleric, is disliked by Iraq's Shiite religious establishment, which has felt increasingly threatened by his growing popularity. Some Iraqi leaders, especially the Shiite ones, have quietly raised the prospect of killing or arresting Mr. Sadr as a way of eliminating him as a threat. Other Shiite leaders advocate a more diplomatic approach to Mr. Sadr, based on the notion that aggressive action would only inflame his large following. "Were someone to try to kill Moktada, it would disturb the peace," said Adnan Ali, a leader of the Dawa Party, one of the largest Shiite parties. "Moktada has a lot of sympathizers in Iraq, and it would be incorrect to ignore them." Some Shiite leaders say a debate has been raging inside Mr. Sadr's movement in recent weeks about the possibility of ending the armed struggle and entering democratic politics. Mr. Nasiri, the Mahdi Army leader, echoed that Tuesday. "We have a clear political plan," Mr. Nasiri said, "for a new Iraq, for democracy, for human rights." In the past, though, such declarations by Mr. Sadr and his lieutenants have proved empty. Mr. Sadr has promised repeatedly to lay down his weapons and stop fighting, but he has repeatedly broken that promise. One of the unanswered questions in the negotiations has been the role of the American government, which has provided most of the armed forces deployed against Mr. Sadr. American diplomats have said that in confrontations like the one in Najaf, they would follow Dr. Allawi's lead. A Western diplomat expressed skepticism about Mr. Sadr's latest promises to renounce violence, suggesting that they were no more sincere than those that came before. "He has given no indication that he would give up his weapons," the diplomat said, speaking of Mr. Sadr. The diplomat suggested that Mr. Sadr, who has not taken part in the negotiations himself, is probably trying to buy time as he replenishes his ranks. The appropriate response, the diplomat suggested, was to keep up the pressure. "We have seen no evidence that Moktada is prepared to forswear violence and enter the political process," the diplomat said. "The movement has suffered damage and wants a timeout. We can't figure out why that is in our interest." You can't go through negotiations half-heartedly. Does ANYONE over there have a friggin clue as to what to do? Does ANYONE have a plan that doesn't change from day to day? Completely outrageous... and we HAVE to stay there and protect this government. If this continues, we'll be there for YEARS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 It's the wild west... What a perfect place for the big cowboy! Now we alone have to pay for it... What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arondale Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 You can't go through negotiations half-heartedly. Does ANYONE over there have a friggin clue as to what to do? Does ANYONE have a plan that doesn't change from day to day? Completely outrageous... and we HAVE to stay there and protect this government. If this continues, we'll be there for YEARS! 14173[/snapback] I don't understand what you are you talking about. Where do you get that Allawi is in negotiations half-heartedly or that he doesn't have a plan? Here are some excerpts from your article: "But an Iraqi source said Dr. Allawi had decided to take a harsher approach toward Mr. Sadr and the Mahdi Army, possibly including the use of military force. The source said Dr. Allawi appeared to be motivated by disappointment with the agreement in Najaf, which ended the bloodshed there but left the Mahdi Army intact and made Mr. Sadr stronger than ever, in the eyes of many Iraqis." "Mr. Sadr has promised repeatedly to lay down his weapons and stop fighting, but he has repeatedly broken that promise." "We have seen no evidence that Moktada is prepared to forswear violence and enter the political process, the movement has suffered damage and wants a timeout. We can't figure out why that is in our interest." Based on this article alone, and I have not read any others today, it sounds like Allawi is trying to do what is best for Iraq. Just because he backs out of negotiations that means he doesn't have a plan or is negotiating half-heartedly? It sounds to me that Sadr is trying to manipulate the negotiations and can not be trusted. Didn't you think it was kind of odd that all of a sudden Sadr was willing to stop fighting, saying he wanted to join the political process? Personally, I don't know why they should do anything but arrest this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tennesseeboy Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 catastrophic success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Wishful thinking: Carter backing the right horse in Iran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest RabidBillsFanVT Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 I don't understand what you are you talking about. Where do you get that Allawi is in negotiations half-heartedly or that he doesn't have a plan? Here are some excerpts from your article: "But an Iraqi source said Dr. Allawi had decided to take a harsher approach toward Mr. Sadr and the Mahdi Army, possibly including the use of military force. The source said Dr. Allawi appeared to be motivated by disappointment with the agreement in Najaf, which ended the bloodshed there but left the Mahdi Army intact and made Mr. Sadr stronger than ever, in the eyes of many Iraqis." "Mr. Sadr has promised repeatedly to lay down his weapons and stop fighting, but he has repeatedly broken that promise." "We have seen no evidence that Moktada is prepared to forswear violence and enter the political process, the movement has suffered damage and wants a timeout. We can't figure out why that is in our interest." Based on this article alone, and I have not read any others today, it sounds like Allawi is trying to do what is best for Iraq. Just because he backs out of negotiations that means he doesn't have a plan or is negotiating half-heartedly? It sounds to me that Sadr is trying to manipulate the negotiations and can not be trusted. Didn't you think it was kind of odd that all of a sudden Sadr was willing to stop fighting, saying he wanted to join the political process? Personally, I don't know why they should do anything but arrest this guy. 14201[/snapback] Why go through this lengthy negotiation process then?? There is a difference between a truce and a peace agreement... a truce is only temporary. It doesn't show to me that he is serious if an agreement had been reached, and he suddenly backs out. This doesn't seem right to me, and he shouldn't toy with guys like this. Either negotiate with them in good faith and get on with peace, OR go after him militarily without let-up until his followers are destroyed. THAT'S what I mean by half-hearted!! Either one, or the other.... no waffling, no indecision. That kind of response only makes the government look weak! Allawi MUST decide soon, or the decision won't be his to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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